Member Info for Straycat

38.4k bopd recognises the fact that with minimal capex, sufficient to keep the plant running, GKP are able to function as a going concern in difficult local circumstances.

And make money. Albeit at discounted prices.

But keeping the oil flowing is a paramount consideration at this time. It's not like GKP are gonna run out of it anytime soon.

Well done the Board and JH for staying the course and delivering in the face of geopolitical forces without their control.

I keep saying the same thing. You can only play what's in front of you.

At the risk of being accused of 'ramping' I reckon GKP are on the right long term track.

I'd welcome opposite opinions...it's a debate about the future of our investments in a fascinating share.

'That's the point innit? It works only if we can recover costs.'

Well that's the bet.

And that's something JH can influence.

If not then we're wasting our time and money.

As I've said before, in the end it's a question of belief.

Belief in the basic premise and belief in the Board to see it through.

Or not.

Quite right.

In fact if poo remains above $70bp, and given payment stability and reliability, GKP should load up with capex and follow the self funding premise of the business model.

Assuming the newly negotiated terms are acceptable in that context.

That's the bet.

Honesty is at a premium when anyone ever talks to anyone else about investments.

Taken at face value then you're capable of admitting you are imperfect.

As am I. I've already lost nearly £2k on my last investment in this share...

I guess I'm making the argument that this share is unique in several respects:-

1) It's clearly high risk given the region;

2) It's clearly a model that would work if undisturbed by cash flow impedance;

3) GKP are unburdened by debt, unlike their counterparts in UPIKUR;

4) The Board are 'on board';

5) GKP are in a new reality that they have to deal with. And confidence in the management will be a critical factor.

I can afford the risk, despite your accusation that I've not really invested in the GKP proposition.

And if you knew the level of my belief and investment then this would be a very different discussion.

That was an avco 20 and if I'd been braver it would have been an additional 100.

Just didn't trust my judgment on the sp and where it might settle....rightly so as it turns out.

As to my full shareholding, well I've only increased it over time and I initially bought in early 2018. Loaded up.

Your initial investments were at around 80-85p but you've added since.

So you're probably under water now (excluding the massive dividends we've all benefitted from), but not by much.

The question is; why are you still around if you don't believe in the basic premise for the investment?

You didn't ask. You stated my position.

So, Snowflake, what do you really think?

Have I misrepresented my investment in GKP?

Have I lied?

Is it more or less than £10k/10k shares?

What do you think Snowflake?

'Says the man with just 10k. LOL. Peanuts.'

You have absolutely no idea what my investment in GKP amounts to.

'Place your bets (and hopefully bigger ones than Straycat).'

Brilliant!

There's probably not another Poster who thinks I'm in for only £10k or 10k shares.

But your childish response and those comments tell me all I need to know about your analytical abilities and sensitivities.

Touch a nerve did I?

Didn't read you as a Snowflake. But we live and learn.

Ha! Like I said, brilliant!!

Yes I've traded stock for profit in the last couple of years.

But not in any material way.

No need, no point.

Btw, what is a 'satisfactory volume' in the current trading circumstances?

JH has to play what's in front of him. He has no geopolitical influence. Which is why I refuse to speculate on regional politics.

I don’t believe you’re a Dullard PUTUP, but sometimes your quasi-ranting posts give you away.

First of all we don’t know what the re-negotiated contractual terms will be, so speculation is absolutely pointless.

All we’ve got to work on are the existing arrangements for now.

And on those terms the more GKP invest in capex to 90k bopd, the more oil GKP produces, the more capex GKP recovers out of receipts and the more profit oil GKP accrues over time.

CRITICALLY the whole equation works on the market price for oil. The higher the price, the better the P&L and Balance Sheet looks. And visa versa. Just reference the 2018 Accounts @32k bopd and $74pb.

AND it demands a payment regime which is robust and reliable.

This is not anywhere near as complicated as you insist on making it.

JH just needs to stand by GKP’s basic self-funding growth model, howsoever it is eventually adjusted to accommodate the new trading canvas.

Jesus PUTUP, anyone would think you had an agenda…

I think you’re a risk averse wimp who’s licking his wounds and wishing he was somewhere else, somewhere safer. Well you’re not.

This is a risky grown-up share and the stakes are high.

Stop whining and get on board.

Or F*ck Off.

In God's great scheme of things $151m is a rounding error. Do the math.

The real goal is the self-funding dream.

Don't get me wrong, that money is owed and should be recovered.

But it shouldn't cloud the greater goal.

BB,

That's true. And a good post btw.

It's a question of belief in the end.

To lose your nerve now and sell is to lose the majority of your investment in the belief.

In the end this will boil down to a commercial new reality.

And the question is whether, as investors, we can stomach that new reality.

Which in turns depends on our appetite for risk.

Which in turn depends on our confidence in the current Board and in particular, JH.

I do and I'm in.

As I understand your position, you have no choice.

According to PUTUP I'm a Trans! Not a pronoun 'Him'.

Lighten up C*ckeye and roll with the punches.

This is a long term development for us (including you) and, quite simply, you're in or you're out.

Stop behaving childishly in the face of adversity.

Grow up.

The oil is flowing.

And will continue to do so.

GKP have to manage their new circumstances.

But the oil will flow. And GKP will continue to ensure that.

Don't be childish.

You really need to get over yourself.

'Anyone who attempts to mislead others or who sets a false picture as to the dire situation this company and all operators in the KRI, deserves immense disdain.'

What a load of tosh.

Stop looking back at your pain pre Restructure and start looking forward to post Restructure options.

We're in a re-negotiation, nothing more or less. It's tough, sure.

But GKP are not in a 'dire state'.

They're looking at what's in front of them and deciding what's in the shareholders best interests.

I'd rather have that debate than the fatalistic summary you provide.

Because you're wrong.

We've no debt and a vision for the future which is self-funding.

Sell out if, in the end, you're just whining.

The KRG are no longer in control of events.

And APIKUR are not even being invited to the revised contractual negotiations.

As for Colonel Myles B Caggins, the leader of the APIKUR negotiating team…great war record but hapless in this field of battle. Who chose him? He has no skin in the game yet he’s taking money to negotiate on GKP’s behalf.

Such a simple but HUGE mistake.

Hanging your hat on APIKUR to resolve these issues satisfactorily is a pipe dream.

Because each member has different needs depending on their very disparate financial circumstances. Which means they’ll be prepared to settle on different terms one from the other.

GKP has no debt and is still self-funding, despite the traumas of the last year. And will continue to be so, even if it has to regulate its local trading policies. Which makes it unique, thanks to the 2016 Restructure.

But unless JH acts in GKP’s best interests and refuses to be emasculated by the APIKUR side show, then GKP is just another high-risk investment that failed to adjust to changing terms of trade.

So it looks to me like GKP will have to face a new reality and deal with what’s in front of them, presented to them by their new contractors, the ICG. Existing contracts notwithstanding.

But in any event APIKUR is clearly not the GKP bedrock for a successful outcome.

In the end all will depend on whether the new terms mean GKP can pursue their plan for self-funding growth.

Otherwise what’s the point?

Stakes are high.

Don’t you just love this share?

Three things:-

1) It was a hypothetical because I used the prefacing word 'suppose';

2) I bottled it and used the investment as a corrective avco because I'm not sure we've hit the bottom yet;

3) I might be lying about my finances and investment potential. You never know. It's the anonymity of the Avatar that protects them from the truth being evidenced...

In any case I cannot be used as a barometer of GKP sp performance over the next period because I've turned into a post re-structure long term believer...God help me.

20

As a long termer believing the dream I'm now back in.

Irresistible to me...hmm...

One question though. JH obviously knew his CFO didn't have the confidence of the majority shareholders. It was voted on and is a matter of record.

Is Legris the chosen man?

Because he's definitely got skin in the game, and has had for years i.e. was IW dumped?

Looks like JH wanted a change...

Lightweight accountant Ian Weatherdon never attracted serious shareholder support, failing twice to attract more than the required 80% AGM shareholder backing along with his Chairman Jaap Huijskes.

Truth is that doesn't matter as long as all GKP just have to jump through the Regulatory hoops to maintain their people in place. The regulatory framework is that fragile.

Check out the sanctions if a shareholder wants to depose an Executive Director.

They just needs to say sorry and 'I'll do better'.

And that's it.

But IW's taken a sh*tload of free shares with him.

Just look at his previous CV and ask yourself why he was recruited by Jaap Huijskes and his acolyte Jon Ferrier in the first place.

IW's replacement has been sitting on the sidelines for years.

Papineau-Legris, who has also made REAL money out of his involvement with GKP, often fronting their PR campaign, is at least invested in the business.

As for Kimberley Wood, no loss. She was only ever unnecessary ballast.

I reckon this is now a good time to buy once things settle.

It's all about the fundamentals...

Good for you P.

Have a good weekend.