Member Info for Straycat

The CRP is critically predicated on the level of GKP capex, given current contractual terms. Which in turn is predicated on regular and reliable payments for production and then re-investment.

But in essence the whole GKP proposition depends upon GKP investing based on regular payments for self-funding growth.

It’s not a difficult concept, howsoever it will be repositioned in The Brave New World.

JH needs to maintain the GKP model. Albeit on modified terms.

Unfortunately that’s not easy in this climate. But that’s why he gets the big bucks.

Because if you run the numbers, IF JH can maintain that motif and perpetuate a sensible self-funding model then, as shareholders, we’re in the money on almost any rational analysis.

However he needs to hold the GKP strategic line.

Not the UPIKUR line, which is based on individual members’ different financial circumstances and prejudices.

I reckon he gets that.

We’ll see…because in the end the oil will flow.

Nobody should buy into this stock on its ability to sell locally unless you're a moron.

Hi Solarfire,

Seen the presentation and it tells us nothing we don't already know unfortunately.

Just for Pareto O&G purposes.

The 80/20 rule that means most Companies will contribute in an effort to be a part of the Club.

Doesn't contribute in any way to our understanding of the GKP fundamentals and where it sits in the firmament.

I've made my views clear.

We're good. Just got to navigate the headwinds and that's all.

I reckon JH can do that.

'It's been a good call...'

B0llocks.

Kelty has no real credentials at all. His track demonstrates his abilities.

Grow up PUTUP.

We all know it's a risk share.

Another view other than the terror stream of short-term misery permeating this bb.

Some facts;

1) GKP’s current contractual arrangements are with the KRG and no-one else;

2) GKP have absolutely no influence on regional geopolitics howsoever they present their APIKUR credentials in the region vis their recent absences at keystone meetings;

3) Whatever they say about their contractual position, GKP need to resolve this issue in real time, recognising their need to re-start exporting to make sense of their self-funding development proposition in this Brave New World. Otherwise their plans are f***ed and they’ll have to bail, one way or another;

4) JH has a fiduciary duty to deal with these issues, and he is doing so to the best of his knowledge and abilities, given the constraints of his negotiating position;

5) But one thing’s for sure…the oil will flow. And he knows that too;

6) As for the $150m delinquent debt, it’s a small price to pay for the re-start of GKP’s self-funding plans for growth if that’s necessary. But it MUST be included in any renegotiation, naturally. And good luck with that;

7) But all you’ve got to do is run the numbers on a self-funding planned development to 100k bobd over the next five years to understand the potential rewards for longer term holders.

JH has got to be in that game because GKP are debt free and more than covering their costs. Other APIKUR members not so much. Check it out.

This issue will be resolved by negotiation and GKP will adapt, because the oil will flow. Albeit with changed contractual arrangements that may be more complicated.

In the end it really doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things; the oil will flow. And GKP will revive its serious intent to go to the next self-funded production stage up to 100k bopd.

JH knows that too. And what that means Realpolitik.

Serious shareholders are onside with this.

JH must play what’s in front of him…not the other stuff he can’t influence in the geopolitical arena.

Geopolitical bb supposition, while amusing, is inevitably inconsequential. Because nobody knows, least of all us simple minded folk. And certainly not Ashley Kelty.

However the truth is the oil will flow…inevitably.

The terms of engagement are going to change (as I predicted years ago).

And as a debt free business, GKP must pursue its ambition for self-funding growth in a new and more challenging environment.

And if you don’t get that then get out, because otherwise it’s a rough ride.

I love it.

For those penniless trading people, good luck and take your profits when and if you can afford to...in any case, good luck.

But don’t listen to Panmure Gordon and Ashley Kelty’s assessment…just look at his pedigree.

Joined this bb in early 2018 and it was a very difficult introduction into a completely toxic bb experience.

I embrace this new world because it's so less antagonistic...new Team New Dream.

Definitely nothing to do with me!!

But I'm probably bowing out now after five years on this bb...everyone has their own experience of GKP.

Mine's been excellent and that's has less to do with skill and more to do with investing in the fundamentals...not the geopolitics.

For what it's worth, I own a 'significant ' part of this Company and I will hold, maybe increase, but not on the basis of geopolitical schisms.

All I'm looking at is the basic Company set-up (post Restructure) and the current Management determination to see it through.

Don't rely on APIKUR....trust in the GKP management, or sell.

Bye PUTUP., genuinely will miss our exchanges...

The IOC consortium.

JH will realise this and negotiate accordingly.

Another way of saying the consortium will bend and compromise...

The next OpUp is scheduled for w/c 18/12/23...probably 21/12.

Until then we all have to endure the speculation of the speculators.

Dull and as un-informative as ditchwater in the end.

The oil will flow. And the export taps will get turned back on, probably in Q1 2024 (as previously predicted months ago).

And for the initiated well we too easily understand the underlying financial structure of GKP's self-funding proposition.

And its innate commercial strength even in the face of adversity.

So whatever the settlement detail arrived at between the competing geopolitical parties, the critical factor is the strength of GKP's fundamental trading platform position. GKP have a fundamentally different P&L trading and borrowing proposition to their co-members in

'As for the company, They buy nothing. The shares bought are cancelled.'

But what if they're not? what if they're bought back to Treasury as last time by Jaap?

Because you used to argue that Jaap Huijske's buy back TO TREASURY amounted to the same thing!! You used to argue that those purchases fell into the same category i.e. they had no value. That they were simply a return of capital to shareholders.

Classic case of cognitive dissonance.

Don't make me embarrass you by retrieving the detail of our disagreement on this fundamental issue.

Hoist by your own petard P.

So any future GKP buybacks should be for cancellation then?

Yes, of course.

Because otherwise buybacks to Treasury mean that those shares can be re-introduced into the market at some future point i.e. they have an intrinsic value. Which is why buybacks to Treasury are represented as having value in any published accounts.

Well at last/least you've finally seen the light.

If/when GKP buys back its shares they MUST be for cancellation.

On the matter of participation in any buy back FOR CANCELLATION, it's clearly a matter of personal opinion as to the buyback price and whether that proposed price represents under or over valuation of the stock. Obviously.

I reckon GKP need to address some much more pressing issues right now though.

Hope you found the dog of your dreams...presumably it's a 'handbag' mutt with no pedigree whatsoever..

Did I say I was bailing?

But some of the financially illiterate drivel being posted on this bb requires some circumspection.

You don't know what I'm going to do.

Unfortunately, neither do I.

I’m not posting to the traders on this bb.

Good luck and I wish you well. I bought into the dream of self-funding growth to 100k+bopd. And I still do.

Which makes me a ‘lucky’ LTH, i.e. I initially bought in early 2018.

GKP are currently owed $151m in overdue debt by the KRG.

Indeed, in the FH results there was a necessary $14m accounting adjustment required to recognise a ‘provision for impairment of trade receivables’.

That provision will only accelerate over time unless and until that delinquent debt is repaid.

And the KRG can’t pay it.

Most certainly the FGI won’t pay it, because they’re not signatories to those contractual arrangements. I wouldn’t. Would you?

So it’s down to GKP/AKIPUR to negotiate a payment way forward with the KRG. No doubt guided by FGI requirements.

And as it stands, that will inevitably involve a restart to export production coupled with a cast iron payment regime which incorporates additional delinquent debt repayments over production time to anticipated levels. Years then.

And here’s the rub; whatever’s written down in that contract, the FGI now know that GKP/AKIPUR prefer production to litigation.

So what happens next time the cash taps are turned off?

For whatever FGI reason.

Another contractual review?

I’m in and have been for five exciting years.

But this is a seminal moment.

Stick or twist?

Klassic,

Speaking on behalf of PUTUP I would ask/beg you for a little kindness.

The menopause plays with the mind; thought processes can become easily contused; mental agility is compromised at all points. Also there's a shortage of HRT in the global markets right now which doesn't help her in her hour of need!

However, her next dose is imminent and therein lies her salvation.

So please be gentle and cut her some slack.

Take a leaf out of her book. After all, you'll never find her being abusive to other bb contributors and treating them like they're something unpleasant stuck to the bottom of her Louboutins.

She simply needs support at this time.

Frenchchip, off to Paris soon by the way, Jazz in St Germain all the way for me...

I bought in March 2018 in quantity.

After and as a consequence of the Restructure.

And since.

There are two types of LTHs now; the ones who went through massive financial pain after the necessary re-financing; and the investors like me who have enjoyed the benefit.

Always going to be a problem. But all of us have taken risk in a risk share...my view is that GKP can grow and develop. And if I'm right, so will the share price as consequence.

I could be wrong.

Back in...£50k on top of a sh*t load of other buy-ins at a variety of prices.

Thankfully doesn't matter, but pride is a big motivator!!!

Maybe I'm a complete loser.

Time will tell...

Unless I'm a complete Numptie then the fundamentals will out.

That's the bet.

We'll see...

For me, the current share price is an irrelevance.

As a long term investor I care less about the current share price, and more about the long term trajectory.

And that is the plan for self-funding growth to 85k bopd and more...

IF GKP can secure its payment future then that plan is something it can manage without outside finance or management as far as I can tell.

But it MUST secure that reliable cashflow if it is to achieve its strategic goals.

It's nothing to do with local sales to shore up the P&L, although all credit to the Board for doing that.

It's everything to do with a five year horizon and how that will work out for GKP if they can withstand the current headwinds.

My bet is they can. So much so that I am currently considering another significant investment.

Because GKP is so undervalued right now imo.

Nobody's celebrating Israeli's past difficulties, not at all. Nor the Palestinian problem as a consequence of historic 'solutions' to that problem.

Nothing to do with that.

But common humanity should prevail.

All okay to celebrate the murder of young Israeli woman by driving her dead naked body through the streets of Gaza then, shouting and screaming victory?

All good? I think not.

No idea I was fanning the flames of fanaticism by pointing out the blindingly obvious...don't kill innocent peace loving Jews in a massacre.

And then put their dead nude young bodies on display as if they were less than human.

Stupid politics.

Will end in tears, Palestinian tears even though most of them only want to get on with their lives.

Pathetic.

Ask the dead naked young woman being paraded through the streets of Gaza as a trophy.

And I'm not even Jewish.

Outrageous...

Roger,

I've been in the chaos that is this share history for five years. Previously it was carnage been engaged!! Ask the real LTHs.

In the end it depends on whether you believe in the strategy I guess... and I do.

But I could be wrong.

Rog,

Stick to the fundamentals and believe in the essential truth of the basic commercial proposition, or quit on it.

Either way, the oil will flow. Geopolitics or not...

Nightmare share with such massive potential; that's the dilemma.

Good luck.

SC

GKP Fundamentals for the uninitiated:-

1) Under current PSC terms capable of generating massive FCF if paid on a reliable basis using the export oil pipeline;

2) Free-flowing dividends as a consequence, even @ $200m+ CAPEX a year;

3) No debt (crucially);

4) Self-funding growth plan to 85k bopd and beyond;

5) Committed Board to the point that they have deferred their earnings by 20 % as a gesture of that commitment (critical to GKP future from a shareholder perspective imo);

6) Board ability to find a way through and maintain the Company's financial integrity by redeveloping their routes to market and maintain their cash-flow model, albeit in a different form;

7) 55.3k bopd recorded prior to pipe closure with further massive planned investments to follow.

All GKP needs is to secure its payment future.

It will do the rest, with or without the $151m delinquent repayment ( which it must retrieve as a matter of urgency).

This is not complicated. It either can it or it can it not pursue its goals which are clear and unambiguous.

Invest/divest accordingly. Trade or commit to the GKP proposition.

Everyone knows where I sit on that spectrum.