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JB,

Perhaps 1p. Just a wild guess....

Slacker,

What I've noticed is that since interest rates have been high, some placings (but not all) have been done at really deep discounts and/or companies have chosen to turn to death spiral financing instead. As GDR doesn't have sales yet, and has already done a death spiral, my guess is what's coming here is a really heavily discounted placing am afraid (possibly at 15%-20% of current share price).....

I reckon you'll get placing news by the end of October.......but not n.ecessarily something to look forward to is it.

Lol Grim, theoretically they could, but they wouldn't if NICE didn't give it the full thumbs up after all that. It's just common sense. Health care in this country is mostly funded through the central NHS budget.

Christopher Bogart, Chief Executive Officer of Burford Capital, commented:

"We have produced the strongest set of six-month financial results in Burford's history, with net income attributable to shareholders of nearly $240 million and tangible book value per share growth of 12% over the past six months. Our core portfolio generated a lot of cash with realized gains tripling on our core portfolio realizations, and new business was very strong. Our new valuation methodology is sensitive to interest rate changes and thus higher rates during the first six months of 2023 were a headwind for the fair value of our core portfolio, especially during the second quarter, but these valuation movements are non-cash and unrealized and are expected to continue to fluctuate over time. Operating expenses reflect strong portfolio performance and certain idiosyncratic events."

The funding is only being provided because it has a chance of getting full NICE guidance, so they can gather the further data to satisfy NICE.

DB described NICE in a post this week as a "regulatory pathway."

You'll see jobs around with titles like "market access consultant." These people advise companies like GDR on how to get full NICE guidance. Other developed European countries have similar executive bodies. Without full NICE guidance there is no market access in the UK. If NICE decide not to give it the full guidance after the 3 years of data gathering, AIHL will no longer be offered anywhere in the UK, even in the greater Manchester area.

Per year of course

Gloria, All the units in Greater Manchester using AIHL is equivalent to about £200k in revenue, or £124k in profit, so not really significant on its own am afraid.....

Roger, Not much is likely to change here until they fully complete the NICE regulatory process for at least one of the products. However, it's interesting to note that Mr Budd mentioned WHO regulatory pathway in his linkedin post this week. So I'm thinking perhaps this COULD lead to earlier sales in the second half of next year in the Middle East or Developing Europe for AIHL....(I don't recall WHO being mentioned in relation to these products before, anyone?)

Actually, you probably hit the nail on the head Planit. It's the guidance that could be the big thing. Analysts are expecting the big improvement to cash flow to come in the second half of the year anyway me thinks. Would be good to see some actual improvement for the second quarter as well though.

So will they break even before they need to do another fund raise??

· Cash and cash equivalents of £26.5m at 30 June 2023 (30 June 2022: £26.1m; 31 December 2022: £13.1m)

· Post balance sheet receipt of £4.5m R&D tax credits

· Underlying EBITDA loss (EBITDA with R&D tax credits and other accounting adjustments added back) of £9.2m, representing a 15% reduction vs. H2-2022 (£10.8m)

"NICE was established in an attempt to end the so-called postcode lottery of healthcare in England and Wales, where availability of treatments depended on the NHS Health Authority area in which the patient happened to live...."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_for_Health_and_Care_Excellence

Grim,

You need to go back to basics and begin your research again. Sadly, you've completely misunderstood. Go to wikipedia, etc, research the role of NICE.

Will be funny if I end up buying in again when it's 0.7p or something next year. But highly possible if they have to do a deep discounted placing and then you get another fall on top of that (as often happens). There's such a long "regulatory pathway" (borrowing words from Mr Budd's linked post today) for these products that there won't be a mad hurry to grab cheaper shares in the near aftermath of any placing this autumn/winter.

Strap in for the big fund raise. It's coming...

From reading bits of analysis I get the impression that cash flow might improve. But sounds to me like the bigger improvement will come in the third and fourth quarters? We'll see.

The strategy for COVID really was where it really went wrong in my view. It was once in a hundred-year opportunity for a company like this to get a product to market QUICKLY. But GDR weren't able to get anything to market. Once the PoC COVID product was ready it was too late. And no one wanted the lab product. Perhaps if they'd of gone for a quick, cheap LFT product they'd have had more luck. Now GDR face the usual wait of years just to find out if the payers will take its new products or not. But the new CEO will likely have more credibility with institutional investors would think.

Carlito, Ridiculous to try and pretend the recent financing hasn't failed. They can't do drawdowns at the moment and they have only a couple of million in the bank, plus a very long commercialization pathway for two products, so very little in terms of revenue on the horizon.

Grim, It's logical what you say about the recruitment timing. I still think the new CEO will be organizing another placing around the time of the final results though. They'll want to get it nailed down before then for confidence reasons. (CEO James must be confident he can get a placing done (otherwise he wouldn't have taken the job).

Bighammer, surely if the share price was over 16p and drawdowns could continue Budd would have stayed. The new CEO will have to lead a new fundraise, which I would expect to happen within the next 4 months.