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I'm saying that a restructure that includes a de-listing is one of many options still on the table.

Just conjecture but if one of those options includes that a new entity emerges in the end, the lenders may want it listed in the US rather than in the UK. Does that mean that current shareholders don't get a piece of that new entity... not necessarily!

Remember, CINE is open to bids currently and that means that any outcome is on the table still.

Remember - 2nd biggest cinema chain in a recovering market!

Elvis is being a bit cheeky - you have to ask in what circumstances would there be a de-listing and what structure would replace the current one and whether existing shareholders would be part of that structure. Given all the options at this stage, I'd suggest that 1 or 2 might involve a de-listing but that does not necessarily mean that current shareholders lose out.

The grant of share options last month was a big clue that something big was coming along.

It's entirely plausible that the whole group will be bought... anyone declaring otherwise is naive.

Just to add... if someone really wants CINE, they'll be trying to engineer a situation where they are in a position to negotiate with the lenders. At this stage, the lenders hold most of the cards so wouldn't a bidder want to shift the balance?

Fair points, Hexam.

I think I'm pointing to a scenario where there are a few bids for the whole group (not just what's in C11). It becomes a competitive process... not just on how much lenders get back.

Could someone bid, say, £300m to get control and pay sufficient to get out of C11... and then refinance what's remaining once control has been secured? The question is how to satisfy all parties.

The hit is already priced in Wolf.

And there are loads of options regarding the debt!

Hexam - do you not think that there are multiple options with the debt?

I doubt very much if any deal will involve repaying the lenders all of their debt either because a bidder will play hardball with them or the deal will include a partial repayment of debt.

As far as the Takeover Code is concerned, there does seem to be some jiggery pokery around this designed to exclude shareholders (here's me thinking that the Takeover Code should protect us from these kind of shenanigans!) BUT an offer for the whole group in its current format would trigger the Takeover Code, wouldn't it?

Again, someone who really wanted CINE and had deep pockets could bid for the whole group. Remember, the debt is a major issue for CINE as it stands but may not be as big an issue for a bidder with access to much cheaper money.

I think that the 3rd January RNS can more or less be ignored now!

Meant to say Hexam that if you could make sense of that RNS then you're a better man than me! LOL!

I think in the current scenario there will be bids for the whole group... money talks so they would be foolish to reject the best bid just because it was for the whole group. The backstop for me is that ROW may well be left on its own but that in itself is worth a multiple of the current sp!

If I was shorting this just now, I'd be getting very nervous!

I agree, Hexam, 50p is rather optimistic and above my expectations... I'd also suggest that anyone playing down the possibilities here has their own agenda too!

I wouldn't rule anything out... the door has been opened and the big boys, if they're interested, aren't going to play by the lender's rules. All you need is one impatient bidder to set this alight. After all, it is the 2nd biggest cinema chain in a recovering market!

I find Mooky's position very interesting and wouldn't be surprised that he gets some backers together to put a bid forward.

Hexam, I'd say that this comment in the 3/1/23 RNS is pretty contradictory 'In parallel with developing a Plan to restructure the Group's capital structure, the company will also run a marketing process in pursuit of a value maximizing transaction for the Group's assets, focused on proposals for the Group as a whole'
They would prefer a deal for the Group as a whole. Let's not be naive... if you open the door to bids then there'll be all sorts of offers for any and all of the Group.

Spot on RI22. There are a number of ways this could go. Put yourself in the lenders shoes - they know that they're unlikely to get all their money back anytime soon so they'll be prepared to take a deal. Bidders know that!
As was reported last week - lenders are prepared to put up another $800m to end up with a company with a market value of $4b. If they were to sell after a reorg and achieve that value then that would leave them with $3.2b. So I expect some bidders to start with that as a base case... they have to a bid that is better than that and also better than anyone elses bid. I wouldn't be surprised if there are bids that include a payment of above $3.2b to the lenders.
I don't necessarily agree that this is an asset sale and that shareholders won't get anything (it is a possibility) - there seems to be contradictory statements about that. I think there will be bids for the whole group (including share capital) and where there won't be any reorganisation involved. Put a sweet deal together that includes satisfying lenders and giving shareholders a return and that deal jumps to the front of the queue!

AMC likely to bid!

Given what's at stake, bullsbears, I agree that there will in effect be a bidding war. I don't think the lenders will take the whole company if there are 30 parties interested, one being a main competitor. I can't foresee a scenario where shareholders get left with empty hands now that this news is out.

Could Vue try to deliver a knock-out bid ahead of 16/2? Possibly BUT I think there will be counter bids following.

I have a low average here so I'd be happy with 15p... could even be persuaded to take 10p!

Well, after waiting so long, it does appear to be happening! Great start to the year (I'm also in VAST and CINE... never had such excitement!)... personally, I don't now see a reasonable bid coming in until a DFS is complete. I appreciate that the income will be excellent news but GR needs to communicate what is going to happen next regarding the pilot plant and the broader EPO area.
I'm thinking of sending a personal letter of apology to GR after all the grief BUT wait, he did spend all that DFS money on Circum 4 or 5 years ago!!!

I'd expect the CINE bod to respond via RNS this afternoon. That should boost the sp again.

Really important to understand that CINE is very likely to be sold before or instead of any reorganisation... and, my take on it, is that they'll have to purchase the share capital if they're buying the whole group. This is looking good for holders today!

If anyone thinks that CINE is going to be sold on the cheap and that shareholders are going to miss out then I reckon that they're mistaken. This is the entertainment business and there are those with deep pockets who want the 2nd biggest cinema chain in the world... and I suspect that VUE don't want the likes of Disney or others muscling in to their territory.

Is there some clever marketing in what has been made public?

If I’m reading this correctly, lenders seem prepared to fork out another $800m to have a company worth $4b with a reduced level of debt and presumably making a healthy profit.

Very, very roughly, it looks to me like the lenders want to recover circa $3.2b… what I can’t make a stab at is how much of a haircut they would be accepting? And it looks like Cine want $800m in the bank.

How much would a bidder be prepared to pay for a $4b co making a healthy profit in a recovering market?
If I was a bidder, I’d need to offer something better than the above – assuming $3.2b to the lenders and $800m in the bank, how much more would I be prepared to pay?

I think that figure is what our holding is worth… and IMHO it’s way higher than the current market cap.

I’d also suggest that bidders wouldn’t want Cine to fall into the hands of the lenders… could make a deal more difficult and more expensive and the lenders might not be willing to sell… so they have a big incentive to make a healthy bid.

Of course, we don’t yet know if existing shareholders would be part of any deal going forward but it’s interesting that Mooky & co are still heavily involved – if there was nothing for them in this predicament, would they not have either walked away or have been replaced already?

I’m somewhat buoyed by the news released yesterday.

Bladderman - I'd say that there's some nervousness around whether the diamonds are in the packet, etc!

I think the point he is making is that individual US investors wake up when it's lunchtime here.