Member Info for Stebo

Magic & Stringer. Any predictions I have made have been in relation to post sign-off re-rate, which haven't yet happened, so I'm not sure how you can say that they were wrong?

I'm happy to put my neck on the line though and say that we'll be, at least knocking on the door of 2p, no matter what happens by the end of next week.

Potentially smashed right through it by then though.

I'm sure you'll be nowhere to be seen if we breech 2p though, and nobody will notice or care, because actual shareholders will just be happy to be doing well.

@dvharrison ...." Trouble is the SP could be 2p+ by the time the final element is signed off this month. "

I think anybody sitting on the sidelines, waiting for final final sign-off would be over the moon if we're only at 2p by then. We're more likely to be 2p by the end of this week, and well over 3p by the time we get to final-final sign-off..... and then we see the sp correction to at least double that imo.

The secret seems to be getting out there into the market, but make no mistake.... these are still cheap, cheap, bargain prices.

We can thank Harry for his shenanigans over the years, which has dragged the sp to these crazy lows, gifting us this opportunity to buy a billion quid company for a fraction of its value.

Sale won't last long by the looks of it. Huge sign-off ceremony re-rate coming. Anybody getting in before that, or sub-2p is doing really well.

@RMc2407 It was a dip in gold that spooked the market, and then everything panicked in a knee-jerk reaction. Golds already recovering, and everything else will soon do likewise.

I don't think £1 plus per share is unreasonable, but that would be if specultion such as mega gold price ($10k+/oz) and addidional exploration, etc. 5-10 years is a long time, and KEFI hasn't even started the engine yet, never mind getting warmed up!

Realistically TK could grow to become a 5moz mine, which will fund KEFI's exploration, which is their forte. With a new discovery or two KEFI could easily be over £1/share in the long term.

..... for now though, I would just be happy at getting back to a more reasonable 5p per share, rising to 10p-15p once we are signed off and de-risked!

@Caterham7 ... I've been really bullish on gold since about '08, and then a lot more so after covid. But I think that the governments have played a blinder (up until now) trying to keep a lid on gold. They've let it slide up slowly, trying to release the pressure in a controlled manner, but the pressure has been building quicker than they've been releasing it. Now finally the cracks are showing and the lid is starting to go pop.

Stand-by for $10,000/oz imo. Which makes KEFI's 83% of a 3moz TK worth $22b!! Or £2 per share for shareholders.

I appreciate to those of a narrow-minded disposition, this sounds like crazy-talk..... but then so was $4,000/oz not very long ago!

@molatovkid So true.

Nothing more tragic than finding a golden goose and then butchering it due to lack of emotional maturity and self-control.

The reality is that 2p, 3p and even 5p is all far far too low a sp for a company of KEFI's worth. A 2p sp might feel high, coming from 1.5p, but the reality is that KEFI's sp has been far far too low for years. This is just the start of that correction..... next we have to start reflecting the gold prices, then the de-risking, then the speculative upside of SA and the 1moz reserve at TK growing to 3moz+

KEFI is starting the GGP-type journey, and 2026-2027 is going to make those with self-control very very wealthy!

Great post by Simms, and I've made a similar mistake in the past.

It's completely different, is something is getting caught up in fomo hype, or becomes a 'meme-stock' and is clearly bubbling, but if a company is genuinely correcting, as a result of improving intrinsic value (de-risking) then you have to do a calm clear and emotionless calculation of where fair value is and then hold until that is achieved.

At today's gold prices, it's close to certain that KEFI will hit 10p as some stage, whether that is this year or in 5 years. Yet only a tiny fraction of current shareholders will still be here!

@Magic-orb ... What a load on nonsense. I doesn't matter if you think KEFI will be 5p, 10p, 20p or 30p by production, that is still a long long way, in percentage gain terms, from 1.5p.

And we will be mining and have first pour in 2027 - it is currently 2026!

Over the average, the trajectory from 1.5p to even just 10p between then and now is impressive, and you will really struggle to find any other opportunities with that kind of return and such low levels of risk (assuming we get financial sign-off).

In reality it isn't going to be a straight line. I expect a large rise in sp once this placing over-hang is gone, and then another large rise once finance is closed out, and then subsequent periodic rises over the following 12 months as we get details about construction, followed by another surge as we close in on commencing mining, and then first pour six months after that.

If you can be arsed with the stress, feel free to try to trade the sp on the way up, but you'll likely struggle to do any better than somebody who just loads up now and then sits back and enjoys the ride.

@MF2017

Likewise I don't foresee a takeover, but I don't think that it's overly complex, especially considering the value at stake, and how most shareholders would foolishly likely bite your arm off for even 5p per share!

I think that HAA is the biggest hurdle to a takeover. For all the hate that he receives, Harry "is" KEFI. The current value of KEFI is wrapped up in Harry's relationships with all sorts of powerful people and syndicate members. And the strength of KEFI to date has been the moves that he has been able to pull off in Ethiopia and SA. A KEFI purchase would loose that.

Perhaps if there is a plan for new people to start stepping into Harry's shoes, then at that stage it would be more ripe for a takeover, with those people taking more ownership over KEFI Ethiopia / GMCO. At that stage it would be a case of business as usual, but with GMCO and KEFI Ethiopia just having a new parent company and deeper pockets!

I imagine that was somebody, who'd previously planned to cash in just pre-2p...... only having read the recent RNS, etc, and perhaps crunched a few numbers at today's gold price, it seems that they've now decided to cancel that and let things play out a while longer.

I think that the sp will just drift up slowly this week. Hopefully placing churn starting to burn out, but not enough anticipation just yet for any explosion. But over the course of this week, 5 days in a row of +5%-10% soon add up. Then once we get into Feb, and the market starts to see KEFI back towards new ATH, it will start to capture attention and there will be that realisation that it's either 'buy now and get in below 2p' or risk getting locked out unless prepared to pay maybe 4p or 5p.

Once we re-rate, weak hands are flushed out, and IIs start to build positions, then the sp will very quickly start to march on from 5p towards 10p+ very quickly.

This is GGP in 2020 all over again, only on steroids due to the rising gold price and KEFI being much lower risk and in the second phase of the lassonde curve.

@dvharrison So true.

Only a tiny fraction of current shareholders will ever see the full value realised. Long before that, the temptation of 100% gains will rob the vast majority of the x000% gains on offer.

I've been on this journey before, and thought that I was being smart trading the volatility, trying to see what I thought were spikes, and trying to buy what I thought was dips. At the end of the journey I was able to look back and realise that I would have far better off just sitting on my hands and patiently waiting for mcap value to correct to fair value, based on calculations, not some percentage gain against a previous arbitrary and irrelevant sp.

We've all been fortunate enough, or bold enough, to get into KEFI during this crazy era when the sp is ludicrously low. Once it starts to rise it would be devastating in hindsight to realise that you've squandered that.

@cashandcard ... I think the biggest resource upgrade will come when KEFI re-run the DFS based on 2026 gold values, and what this means for the cut-off grades and the commercial viability of previously disregarded yeilds. They've already mentioned about recovery from stockpiles previously considered spoil, and how that alone was likely to give them an additional 20% reserves. That's just the spoil, not considering the vast additional bodies of ore that are now commercially viable at $5,000/oz.

The cut-off grade in the DFS was derived from what was commercially viable at a gold price of $1,250/oz!!!

Now imagine what an extra margin of $3,750/oz does to the resource!!

TK is easily a 3moz mine

@Simms45 .... just think of all that catching up with gold prices that KEFI will have to do once it becomes clear that the gold in the ground is going to be extracted within the coming years!

For me it is close to certain that Tulu Kapi is going to happen, and if Tulu Kapi is going to happen, then KEFI is easily worth x10 of our current mcap. It's just a case of sitting on my hands, ignoring the noise, and having the patience to wait for it to fully unfold.

Presumably the sp action is being driven by placement shares being dumped at anything over 1.3, which is an absolute gift to anybody considering adding. Hopefully it continues for a while yet..... only another few days until my pay-day top-up.

"Plenty of photos next month"...... I'm guessing that those photos won't be of heavy plant - they will be of the syndicate at a signing ceremony :-)

This really is now it. Just fill your boots, sit back and watch.

@Dustyslay .... As I said, you've already used up my one 'benifit of the doubt' reply.

If you're genuinely basing your investment decision on the numbers of shares in issue, and the politeness of the LSE shareholder base, then I'm afraid that it would take more effort to help you than I can afford to give.

I'm also now convinced that nobody is that stupid, and therefore you're just here to antagonise and disrupt..... therefore into the green-box bin you go.

Good luck on your investment journey lol

@Dustyslay This is my one 'benefit of the doubt' reply, in the hope that I can help and you are not being facetious or just intentionally confusing to disrupt.

The number of shares is irrelevant. For £15k you can own a million shares for £15k at 1.5p per share, or you can own 10,000 shares at £1.50 a share. But it will make zero difference when the mcap rises from £150m to £1.5b. Your investment will still have went from £15k to £150k.

And regarding IIs and ETFs etc. They will be buying as soon as finance is derisked, and construction gets fully underway in earnest. At that stage KEFI fall into the explorer-developer category and there are ETF funds with strict rules which will 'require' them to take a stake in KEFI. There will be other, more managed and flexible funds, who will be chumping at the bit to get a piece of KEFI early doors, but require sign-off to tick the due-diligence box in their investment case proposal.

Those IIs will be buying their shares from the PIs who are pleased with 3p per share, and don't have the foresight or patience to understand where KEFI is going to be in the next 2-5 years. It is this demand that will start the re-rate, which will increase the mcap, which is what will then require the ETFs to take positions, which will snowball. And all along the way the PI market will be taking little bites which will also nudge the sp along, however they will also be selling and pleased with their 10%/20%/50% etc along the way.

I trust that you understand what I am saying, and how your comments about shares in issue are not really relevant (thus why you've managed to trigger so many posters who are perhaps more sinical of your intent than I am).

It is the institutional money that is going to drive the sp, and the ETF funds. PI's see the value, but there are not enough to have the clout to make big moves to the sp, and when the sp does move they're too weak-handed to make it stick.

The IIs can't really enter the stage until everything is signed sealed and delivered. Even then it will likely be a few weeks before we start to see positions starting to be built. They will calculate the value, but they'll also want to buy as cheap as possible.