Member Info for Stebo

My 'thesis' is that just because you 'can't see it', doesn't mean that it can't happen.

KEFI is going to be a multi-billion dollar company in a number of years. This is not just some forecast, but actual maths based on a quantity of gold, commercial value of that gold, and cost of extraction and production. In a couple of years KEFI will be selling that gold, monetising that value, and issuing shareholders with dividends.

Yes, the mcap value can be wrong for a period, but when dividends become a reality market forces take over and correction occurs.

FWIW, I said that 5p+ by Christmas is likely. That is a fact, based on NPV valuation, and KEFI time-line of finance closing within a few weeks. If things go to plan, then it is "likely" that the sp will quickly travel towards the NPV valuation. The NPV valuation of 5p (issued today) is a very conservative one, and most people will have a NPV far in excess of that, so even only part of the way towards a fair NPV would be beyond 5p. I am not saying that it is definitive, but all the laws of economics and market forces would suggest that, if finances close favourably in line with what KEFI are telling us, then the market price for KEFI shares 'should' reflect the de-risked NPV. That is economics and a factual statement. Not "ramping", and it's not even a prediction!! It is just stating that by Christmas we should be de-risked, and when de-risked the mcap should reflect the forecast NPV.

You are the one who has used definitive terminology such as "There's no way", "That isn't going to happen", "it won't before Christmas; I guarantee that". Hopefully you realise that saying things like that, based on nothing other that your own notions and inability to see beyond the current sp, are why I am saying you are narrow minded.

Anyway, none of it matters to me anyway, and I've tried to kick the habit of trying to help strangers on the internet, so have a good day

StephenX..... perhaps you've missed this, but we haven't yet had sign-off on the finance package!! Looking backwards as the market action, tells you nothing about what will happen going forward when we enter completely new territory.

I understand what you are saying, and I even understand why you're so bewildered at what I am saying. You are narrow-minded, and I do not mean that in a derogatory way, just that you can't wrap your head around the feasibility of 100%+ days. You keep saying that I have been wrong about 'time-frames', but they have always been based on the KEFI time-frames, which (in case you haven't noticed) have been sliding. My forecasts are based on response to events, not dates. Those events haven't even happened yet, so not sure how you think I've been wrong!

Take a look at what happened in Oct, when there was only a sniff of sign-off, with the sp being driven by PI money. Just wait until the II money starts to pile in when we are fully de-risked and project launched!

Serendipidity, it has been confirmed (numerous times) that KEFI PLC costs will drop to less than £1m pa once TKGM is launched. There is also a substantial rebate due back to KEFI for the additional spend that it has incurred to keep pushing the project forward, which negotiations were ongoing, over and above the contracted budget spend.

To try and help with your questions:

1. How much cash does KEFI currently have vs burn rate for two years till mine is live, ie are we fully funded to revenue production?

The SP Angel note released today shows that they are assuming a balance-sheet circa $6m currently. Currently though the ball is up in the air a bit as KEFI still have to choose how much of a rebate they get from TKGM. The value is there (circa $10m) but it's not clear if KEFI will take it as cash or as TK equity basically. The TK project has been confirmed multiple times as being fully funded to revenue production.

2. There was talk of KEFI getting refunded its exploration costs via cash or equity, and I was thinking that would be an inflow of cash to help fully fund the parent through to mining, without a raise. Is this the case?

The rebate is additional spend that KEFI PLC has pumped into the TK deal. We can get a rebate from TKGM to KEFI PLC, or perhaps we will take it as additional equity. TKGM is fully funded through to production (and over subscribed), so it doesn't really need the funds. KEFI PLC doesn't need the funds to keep the PLC afloat through to production either, but it would allow KEFI to push on with GMCO / Konso / further TK exploration, etc.

3. Or has the “refund” already been taken by KEFI in the form of the 10m equity interest we invested in the subsidiary ?

The 'refund' is for spend over and above the agreed KEFI spend. For instance the last raise was to raise funds to pay additional closing costs and fees for TKGM. These have been mentioned as something that will be repaid back to KEFI (or taken as additional equity).

4. What is this please? “ c.US$10 million of KEFI share participation post-closing in respect of certain closing fees and costs.”

There are various success fees etc. which are part of deals struck to get the finance package agreed. These can be paid in cash or issued in shares 'post-closing'. So if they were to be paid in shares then it would be in shares valued at multiples of todays price, as opposed to something similar to warrants where the price was already agreed at 0.7p, etc. It isn't clear if these shares would be in KEFI PLC, KEFI Ethiopia or TKGM. Any dilutive effect of £10 at that stage will be minimal though, and far out-weighed by the huge increase in inherent value of he finance deal being closed.

Just because you don't think something, doesn't mean that it's a ramp.

The 'arbitrary deadline' is a timeframe which I think we can all agree is when the full project finance will be signed off and project launched. That's not un reasonable.

The 5p Valuation is an uber-conservative calculation, only reinforced an hour or two by an analysist, using an ultra-conservative approach.

The 'time-frames' you talk about are taken into account with the discount factor included in a NPV calculation. When TK is actually in production the sp will be more like 20p-30p+ (depending on the price of gold) and risks dissipate and time-discount negates. Again, this is a calculation, not a 'ramp' before you pounce on that!

Feel free to say you disagree with a forecast, but when it's substantiated by rational back-up, you only make yourself look narrow-minded by calling it a ramp.

StephenX, you are being offensive by suggesting that I am 'ramping'. I am using a brain and a calculator, not just sticking my finger in the air with one eye on the current sp, as you are.

And you are right - KEFI is not a rubbish penny stock any more.... except it is still priced like one. That will change, and when it happens it will be rapid. Likely immediately after sign-off, just like I said previously. Personally I am even more confident now, because the separating of the equity and debt sign-offs have meant that the bed wetters are already long gone.

Jewster.... so it the sp rises to 4p or 5p before Christmas, will you consider it over value and sell?

FYI, TK's a 7-year mine, so its value in 10 years time is a huge risk, and without successful exploration its value in ten years could well be 0p. Stick to the day-job bud.

Just because you haven't experienced a rapid re-rate event before, doesn't mean that it doesn't happen.

The KEFI spring has been winding up for years..... all while the gold price has been soaring.

It makes little difference to me, and as I'm still buying I have zero vested interest in the sp currently being higher. I'm just calling it as I see it.

We don't have long to wait to find out though.

Well if some stranger online "guarantees it", then I suppose I must be wrong lol

The numbers don't like, and once we are finally signed off (which will happen before Christmas), then the Valuation calculation becomes a very simple on, and because people like free money, then the sp will continue to rise until the sp gets very close to the NPV.

I've no problem with you disagreeing with me, but to say "that's just a pure ramp", verges on offensive.... especially whenever it is literally minutes after the latest analysist report has just landed with an uber conservative recommendation of 4.9p.

Stephen x - the numbers tell a completely different story.

Look at SP angels latest forecast - they're at nearly 5p, with just about the most pessimistic take you could have on KEFI, inc only 70% equity of TK, a further $10m raise, only $15m for GMCO, etc, etc

If the equity is sorted out at circa 80%, and KEFI PLC confirm what their TKGM rebate is (likely $10m), we will be 5p min, with NPV looking more like 10p+

Scoff all you like - I'm well used to it from when we were sitting at 0.5p and I was telling folk that we would easily be 1.5p-2p by sign-off.

I agree that we need volume, but that will come like a tidal wave. Greed is a powerful thing.

Fantasy, the only people obsessing over the dates and days are the traders trying to time their entry and exit. I appreciate that you say you're not too concerned, and I am not saying you're a trader, or disagreeing with what you're saying.... just that I no longer care that much. Previously the concern was that we might be strung along for another couple of dilutive years, but I think that everybody can agree those days are behind us.

The reality is that for the last 6 months the finance process has been moving forward at unprecedented pace, and we know that we are now in the final final stages. Whether that happens in the next week or two, or not, doesn't really matter to the LTH investors who are loading up and looking forward to financial freedom within the next couple of years!!

I wanted certainty that it "is" happening, which I now have. The specific date is now a lot less relevant to me. I am really excited for the next two weeks, but if those two weeks become 4 weeks, I'll just appreciated the prolonged accumulation opportunity!

I seen "profit takers" mentioned.... I suspect that hindsight will show that Oct '25 was an absolutely horrible time to be "taking profit" lol

We are in the very final throws of this. By Christmas everything will be sorted and the sp will likely be 5p+!

Magic. We KNOW that it HAS to be November. And when you use the Phrase "Harry talk" what you're referring to is Harry's optimistic time-lines, regarding deadlines that he has no control over.

This time KEFI are in the driving seat.

It will be before the end of November.

DrBob, I get what you're saying, but I also think that you need to broaden your horizon. You're giving more weight to the sp action and market dynamics, which acts as resistance towards price rise, than you are to fundamental value.

I personally think that KEFI is due a stepped re-rate. I expected it to come off the back of the debt finance, but it seems that the market is holding out for 100% of finance formally signed off. When re-rate events like that happen we could easily see 100% rises in hours. When institutional buying pressure hits like a tidal wave, and buyers see the sp going vertical, all the usual market-antics-rules stop applying. Profit takers will take their 10% on a run-of-the-mill tuesday.... but if the sp rise shows no sign of slowing, then they wait it out.

That kind of re-rate hasn't been reflected in KEFI yet, and when it does, comments like "we are a gnats **** over 1.5p" become completely irrelevant.

We've gone from half a penny to 2p-ish. That seems a lot, but it's only where I've been saying for years that we should have been 'pre-re-rate. Lot's of us are hugely in profit, but we haven't yet see 'the re-rate'.

When it comes, you'll know it! And then all the jibes about KEFI being 10p will all of a sudden go quiet as it starts to look more and more likely (just as they have about when I spent months saying that we should easily have been 2p pre-sign-off!)

Dr Bob "I think you're all bonkers, do not underestimate profit takers, if this is above 1.5 end of play it's OK."

Let the traders trade, and panic-sellers panic-sell and the fomo-buyers fomo-buy.

Experienced investors know that the best way to make money is "time in the market", not "timing the market".

Any 'profit-takers' likely struggled to get above 1.6p when 'selling the news' last Monday, and will have done will to have gotten back in below 1.3p. All that risk, stress and pressure for a tiny gain, vs those who just bought more in the dips. Hindsight trading looks wonderful, but there's so much risk associated with it, vs the alternative. It doesn't matter if you think KEFI will be 5p, 10p, 20p or 30p by production, I think we can all agree that it will be many multiples of today's price. Why give yourself the headache of trying to trade any volatility, when you know that if you just invest and be patient you will be every bit as profitable!

Yep. II's will buy, put it in a drawer for two years and come back in 2028 to vast wealth.

Most PIs will buy based on logic and fundamentals, then get spooked into selling the first time the sp irrationally dips, then buy back higher when it rises as those fundamentals are still there..... then get spooked into irrationally selling during the next dip, etc.

They've done the hard bit, in finding the opportunity, but they flounder and rob themselves of wealth because of emotional immaturity and lack of self-control.

We need $60m, and we've offers of $180m to choose from. The banks have signed off the debt portion. This is a done deal on a multi-billion dollar project.

PIs can't comprehend that KEFI will be 10p+ per share soon, and II's will take advantage, hoovering up every weak hand who gets spooked at each tree-shake on the way up. And no matter how much they are warned, there's nothing more certain that very few of the current PI's will still be here when KEFI breaks 10p, never mind when TK starts producing and we are at 20p+.

Current calls of 2p, 3p, 5p, are all still surveying the value through the lens of our current sp, which is completely skewing the Valuation.

Some might 'get it' but the vast majority won't...... that's why there is the 'haves' and the 'have-nots' in this world!

I very much agree with this. There will be AIM volatility, such as we've seen this week, but engage logic, zoom out, and look at KEFI as an investment rather than a trade.

There's just no way that KEFI isn't going to be a multi-billion dollar company, barring some black-swan event.

If you get as much as you can into KEFI, sub-2p, and then have the patience to wait and watch KEFI grow, it will be generational wealth.

PatShare - "I see someone made a string of 777 trades, trying to influence the market maybe?"

Have you noticed that these 777 trades, which started bouncing about at yesterday's low, are back again Pat? I've the same cynical thoughts about these urban myths as you have......... but I'm not complaining about the sp action that has followed!! :-D

This is easily a 13p per share company, that you can buy today for 1.3p.

It's like printing your own money at this stage - all it requires is a bit of patience.

Opportunities like this don't come around often.

De-risked KEFI shares, for under 1.3p.

This is the stuff dreams are made of - Fill your boots, and then put your feet up for the next 24 month and patiently just watch as wealth comes to you.