Member Info for Stebo

TW, the AISC of circa $1,100/oz is inclusive of debt repayment. Strictly speaking it is AIC, not AISC. Also we'll be ramping up to 200koz pa production.

Once the debt has been repaid, out AISC will be more like $900/oz total cost, leaving $3,100 profit, on 200,000oz so your figures are way out.

200koz @ $3,100/oz profit = $620m pa

You also have to allow for KEFI only holding 80% equity = $496m pa = £372m

Also, you need to include warrants along with shares, so 9.59b shares = 4p profit per share, per year.

You can see why a 1p dividend starts to look really conservative!

1.8p is just another speed-ramp. Just like the previous one, the pressure will build, the sellers will eventually run out, and then we will have a free-run down the other side of the ramp and be at 1.9p in the blink of an eye.

Fantasy, our royalty will increase, but the current increase in gold is a correction, and not something that is inflationary. The current increase in gold will now mean increased costs.

You are right though about tw.gardner's post not really being how it works though, but I don't really understand what he is saying to be honest lol

" I wish I bough that when it was below 2p.... (sigh)"

lol - very true.

I spent months and months on here, trying to tell anybody who would listen about what was coming.

I got nothing but abuse, dismissed as a ramper, and laughed at, but much worse than that, unfortunately there will have been many who were influenced by the negative doom-merchants. Instead of going and researching what I was saying, many will have read the abuse and dismissed what I was saying.

It is those people, who have missed out already on life-changing money, that I feel sorry for.

There's still time though. If you have the patience to wait for 24 months, you will likely still see an investment today do 10x before we get to production stage!

"Now run that 200k oz per year with a $5k gold price and AISC of $1.2k"

This!

Then add on two SA gold mines, plus further upside fully-funded exploration in Ethiopia!

Wonder when it's going to dawn on people that all these years I have been trying to help people become crazy-rich, not just some AIM trading ramper!

Dsrt, that's not how it works. To suggest that the sp is being manipulated to get harry a bonus is just idiotic.

Maybe the sp is where it is, because we are about to unlock a multi-billion dollar mine project, and our mcap is still tiny

The most distinguishing feature, about KEFI as a proposition, is that nobody trusts Harry or his RNS!!

The deal being signed off is mostly definitely not "priced in" lol

All you have to do it look at the numbers, or run a quick NPV calc on 80% equity of 1moz (likely rising to 3moz), $1k AISC and $4k price of gold

FYI that comes to $2.4b (1moz) rising to $7.2b (3moz).

We are currently only valued at $150m lol

The finance deal is the key that unlocks Tulu Kapi, and a multi billion dollar company...... that is most certainly not priced in lol

No doubt there will be profit takers, who don't understand the business model, once they have 'multi-bagged' or whatever, but everybody who has a bit of patience will be handsomely rewarded as the market catches onto KEFI's profitability.

I think any final sign-off will be announced from London and based on London time-zone

Very reasonable post MF2017

TheMagnacarta, your behaviour and desperate attempts at manipulation on here today have been disgusting. You are clearly bare-faced lying to people and overtly encouraging people to see their shares at a horribly low price!

Obviously everybody knows your lying when you say things like you have been talking to TW, etc. but the sentiment behind lying to people to manipulate them to make really bad financial decisions is truly sickening.

Even your headlines about war, etc. If anybody took 20 seconds to actually read them, the actual story is that Ethiopia has wrote a letter to the UN regarding it's long-ongoing (and well publicised) belief that Eritrea is colluding with a bunch of rebel terrorists. This is not some recent military action, nor anything that anybody near Tulu Kapi (about a thousand miles away - that's about as far away as Istanbul is from London!) needs to be concerned about.

Your efforts at pumping "war is coming to Ethiopia and all deals are off" is just about as convincing as "I spoke to TW and he says to sell sell sell".

It's pathetic, and I don't know how you live with yourself behaving like that.

For your sake, I hope that karma isn't a thing.

If you stress over the daily sp movement you are just setting yourself up for bad decision making. Once the RNS lands there will be all sorts on unknown volatility, and if it effects you then you're going to make poor decisions.

My advice would be to switch off and come back to KEFI and the end of Nov, when the sp will be multiples higher than it is today. What happens in the interim is irrelevant unless you are a very astute trader

Pat, you need to zoom out, and not get stressed by every little movement. Take a look at the last week, the last month, etc. Not the last 30min.

Unless you're a trader, it doesn't matter.

You've presumably made your investment in KEFI based on taking a high-risk punt on finance happening. This now looks to be the case, and when it is confirmed your shares will be worth multiples of what they are today. Just settle yourself based on that, and come back when the sp is 5p+

All those buyers, who could have taken advantage of the warrants sell off for a cheap entry point, but instead they wait for the price to rise!

There is a current speed-bump as weak hands wet the bed at 1.5p - once that's done the sp will be at 1.8p in the blink of an eye.

Now is the time to be taking advantage and buying, don't wait until the sp is racing north again and end up paying 1.7p+

"what if you roll the dice and lose everything. What does the maths and logic say to then get that 'profit' back."

The maths still says that it was worth rolling the dice!

And, also the maths says that one in every six times you are going to lose the £50, but you'll have won £250 the other 5 times, so instead of being £300 up (6 rolls @ £50 a roll), you will be £1,250 up (five rolls @ £250, and one roll at £0). It's like being a bookmakers - yes they will have to pay out somebody's winnings every once in a while, but the business model works because they look at the maths and over the long-term the statistical rules ALWAYS wins out. That's why they are called rules!

Also, nobody is talking about total loss here, for two reasons.

1) nobody should have 100% of their wealth in KEFI. It is a share traded on AIM.

2) the analogy breaks down, because even if the finance deal isn't signed this week, the TK project is going nowhere. KEFI will not go to 0p. The opportunity cost might be that we have to wait another 6 months and perhaps chin another 10% dilution.

Perhaps getting into wider discussions of whole wealth management and risk-tolerance, etc is over-complicating it. Just take it at face value, that if you agree that the likelihood of finance landing is now 'more likely than not', then the risk:reward ratio is greater if you sell than if you hold.

"For me I put risk management above the possible profit to be made as if I get it wrong by going too big then it is harder to make it back. But each to their own."

Personally I haven't seen an opportunity like KEFI in about 5 years. I feel like if I get this wrong then I will potentially have to wait another 5 years for another opportunity to fix my mistake. My thoughts are that if you miss out on say £x profit, then it will be incredibly hard for you to ever make that back..... but you won't even consider it, because the missed gains don't register with you. I don't think like that. I made good money with GGP, but I was far too conservative, 'banking profit', then buying back in higher, getting spooked by sp drops, etc. etc. I made the mistake of calculating what I would have earned if I had just had the confidence to believe in the maths and sit on my hands and do nothing. I view those missed gains as losses caused by my bad decision making. I have learned from that experience though, and I won't make the same mistakes with KEFI.

I personally consider exposing myself to a high likelihood several hundred percent gains, as well worth the potential cost of also exposing myself to a low likelihood 20%-30% drop in value.

Everybody has different tolerances, opportunity costs, and financial situations that they are in. Hopefully we can all agree though, that it makes sense to sit down and consider where you are at, what your goals are, and work out what the actual risk and reward of each decision and opportunity cost is. For instance you have said that you sell to protect capital because KEFI could go to 0p. The chance of that is so so small, due to the KEFI business model and the assets that we hold, so believing that is perhaps giving you a bum steer in your decision making.

PrivateInvestor1, I get what you are saying, and I suppose in a wider context I agree, except perhaps I would consider risk management to be moving value from high-risk (and typically high return) investments into low-risk (and low return) investments. I think what we differ on is seeing holding money as being low risk.

Personally my view on "money" is that it's just about the worst asset you could hold. For me it is beyond high risk, as it is 100% certain of constantly losing value.

Yes £1 is worth £1, but if you value that £1 based on how many oz of gold (or pints of milk!) you can buy with that £1 it becomes obvious that it's a horrible asset to hold in regard to retaining value (and it never gains value, except perhaps against other currency losing value even faster!).

The only positive about holding money is that it is completely liquid, in that everybody trades it. Personally I don't hold any money and use debt for transactions, then sell non-depreciating assets to clear the debt each month.

In regard to the value of risk-management, but I suppose I was looking at it from the view of somebody who is now thousands of pounds in profit. The didn't previously have that capital, so presumably they can survive without 'de-risking' it. If you need that money to survive, or perhaps you need your initial investment (then you were crazy to invest it in KEFI to start with!), then the value of that risk management is perhaps worth not rolling that dice.

If you started by investing money you could afford to lose, then you're in that scenario where you've been handed free money, and you have the choice to roll the dice. In that scenario (which I assume is most KEFI holders, likely now in profit and not needing to sell to pay for groceries!) then logic and maths prove that the best option is to roll the dice for an 83% (5 in 6) chance of 400% more profit.

Good to be discussing these things though, and to take five minutes to consider our own opinions and maybe challenge our own beliefs. Even if you have risk-adverse attitude to preserving gains, profit taking, etc. maybe it would be worth considering putting money into a tracker fund or PM ETF or something liquid, other than selling to 'bank cash'.

Well done to anybody who had dry powder to take advantage of that one.

I wonder will we see a second tree-shake later this afternoon? Today's one was a lot earlier than normal!

PrivateInvestor1....."What a load of rubbish. De-risking is not a fallacy at all. It's about capital preservation and nothing to do with emotion. If the price has gone up 100% you now have twice the capital at risk from when you bought, by 'de-risking' say by selling half of your holding you are now risking the same amount of capital as at the beginning.

Yes there is opportunity risk of the price going up but now you have managed your risk and protected your capital. Whereas if you don't sell any and the price has gone to 0 then you have no capital left whatsoever. There are several examples of companies going to 0 and people losing all their money.

It's not about the emotion of missing out on £1,000 versus losing £1,000 it is all about risk management which is why most PIs lose money as they don't manage risk well enough."

Everything that you're saying is correct, but I think you're missing the point (or perhaps we disagree on the premise) that money is just another asset. So you are not necessarily managing risk, you've just moving value to a different asset, both of which carry their own risks... which include various opportunity cost risks. And yes, it would not be prudent to hold everything you own in KEFI shares, just like it would not be prudent to hold everything you own in property or cash or any asset class.

The point still stands that a forgone £1,000 is worth the same as a protected £1,000. They're both worth a £1,000.

You do make a reasonable point though, which is that if all you had in the world was that £1,000, then perhaps to that individual then the first £1,000 = food and shelter, whereas the second £1,000 = a nice phone, so perhaps in that instance then £1,000 saves, does not necessarily equal an extra £1,000 earned.

Looks like..... tree shake over.

As obvious as day after night.

I really feel for anybody who falls for these tricks. It's just emotional manipulation, but I don't get how people keep falling for it!

Yes Sharezy, missing out on £50 has the same financial impact as losing £50.

Valuing retaining the £50 higher than making the extra £50 is just an emotional response, as opposed to a logical mathematical one.

When it's like for like, I suppose it makes little difference, but with KEFI it's like retaining the £50 to the detriment of earning £250!

Then throw into the mix that it's not a 50:50 coin toss either. I think even the biggest pessimist would agree that KEFI are at least 90% likely to now close this deal in the coming days!

It's perhaps more like you hand somebody £50 and a dice. If they roll the dice and land on a '6' they lose their £50, but if they land on any other number they will be given £250, or they can choose to not roll the dice and walk away with the £50.

Logic says that it clearly makes sense to roll the dice, but yet some people will still choose to walk away with just their £50!