Member Info for Stebo

Nigel, I think that the current rise is based on the fact that the 'delay' risk is dissipating, which is a frustrating but not that costly a risk.

Finance de-risking is a huge and absolutely critical risk, so you can only imagine what the rise in response to that risk dissipating will be!!

Other risks will remain, such as jurisdiction, etc. but this is a flagship project for a 'new' Ethiopia that is open for business. Considering the antics going on in the 'western world' I personally consider Ethiopia on a par with most other jurisdictions!

Darientaylor, good luck with whatever strategy you go with. It is worth considering though that the NPV (at sign-off, not production) is 14p+. There's every chance that the sp will 'settle' much closer to that than 2.5p.

Good to have a plan in place though - just worth considering every eventuality, and ensuring that it's actually a good plan.

NickE, bare in mind the KEFI currently own 95% of Tulu Kapi (the EG taking the other 5%). That dilution at subsidiary level has been known about and considered for years. It is an alternative means of financing, and not some kind of hidden elaborate ploy that is going to surprise us all. Just like we fully expect that the bank-loans will come with interest charges, and the Ethioprefs will have to be repaid.

I'm not presuming that you are trying to spread fear, but just to add context to your comment.

Well done to everybody who has stayed the course, and shrugged of the many many arrows of FUD being fired daily by those who simply didn't have enough bottle to stand over their own convictions.

This is our time. An opportunity that only comes around a handful of times in a lifetime. A lifechanging opportunity. Prepare ourselves. Do your research. Take confidence and reassurance in your calculations Make your strategy and decisions now, not in the heat of the moment, so that when both temptation and doubt will try to divert you off your chosen path you lean on wisdom and not emotion. We have done well to make this far, on this marathon, but we are now on the home straight. This is where the race is won or lost, riches are made, or regrets created.

Let our battle cry be, I have done my research. I know the worth of what I own. I made a high-risk decision to buy when I did, and I have the wisdom patience to ensure that I earn the high-rewards that are mind for the taking.

This week every single evening will be like a gamble. Can you really take the risk of sitting on the sidelines over-night!!

When the sp is 5p (or even 2p.... or even 1.5p!!), all of a sudden we'll have people waiting for a dip back to x, y or z to buy back in lol

It's the PIs fallacy - wait until the sp has risen before buying lol

Just watch when the sp is as say 2p, and it falls back to 1.9p, and buyers go crazy..... those same buyers who could easily buy right now for almost half of that lol

I can't see any reason why KEFI will ever have a placing ever again, unless it's to buy out Artar from GMCO or something like that.

We are debt free, cash rich, due a huge TKGM rebate. Our cash-burn is about to drop to less than a million pa, and our only liability is a couple of million to progress SA. And by mid 2027 we'll be producing at TK, with more money flowing into the accounts than we know what to do with!!

KEFI really has been the perfect storm. LTH haven't been as fortunate as anybody in a position to buy now, but during the 'delay years' gold has sky-rocketed, and everybody who has invested in KEFI will do really well. Even if your average is over 2p.

The only people who will have lost money on KEFI are traders who got caught out, and PI who didn't have the patience or liquidity to wait for the KEFI tree to bear fruit.

To everybody else..... congratulations.

The other thing I would suggest (as I have been banging on here for ages about!) is to take five minutes and do a proper Valuation on your KEFI shares. Know what they are worth. Because when the sp goes to 5p plus, it's going to feel like 5p is a great price for your shares, when in reality is only a fraction of what they are worth.

Do the calculation now. Decide what you believe fair value is. And don't let MMs take them off you for anything less than that!

There are plenty of online calculators to work out NAV / NPV, or spend a few minutes on AI and it will help you get a realistic value.

There will be real pressure over the coming months to sell, as the market tried to transfer shares from impatient PIs into the hands of patient IIs.

Don't become a victim, looking back in two years time kicking yourself about what could have been, if only you hadn't sold!

Have to agree with Bear. Unless you really know what you are doing, trying to trade something like this is just too risky.

I was speaking with two guys today who sold yesterday, because they figured that there was likely to be a delay and that the sp would therefore drop today and they could get back in. Both of them are now begrudgingly panic buying.

Easiest way to make money is to sit back, ride out any volatility, and when all is said and done you can look back and laugh at how you were able to buy KEFI back when it was only 1p per share!

Investor, I'm afraid that was before my time with KEFI!

Investor78 - Mine to be operational mid -'27

Imagine what the price of gold is likely to be by then!!!

$300m from just 160koz pa and $3,500/oz price of gold

We already know that gold is $3,800/oz and rising, and that the output will quickly be rising to 200koz pa

So an extra 40koz ($75m) and an extra $300/oz profit on the whole 200koz ($60m)

So by Y2 that will be more like $435m pa! Not far off half a billion in profit per year, and if gold keeps doing what it's doing, by Y2 we'll definitely be there.

If absolutely crazy that a company that will be netting half a billion, per year, is currently only valued at $100m mcap lol

The re-rate here is going to be epic - beyond comprehension!! Those who have the bottle to stay the course are going to do very very well from KEFI!

Yep, it's all in the RNS under Tulu Kapi project-level governance

KEFI PLC currently own 95% of TK, but will end up owning 80% of TKGM (as was always the plan)

The RNS confirms that KEFI have already committed everything that needs to be paid. There will be no more money from KEFI PLC, and no need for a raise. To the contrary, we're sitting with better cash reserves than last year, and we've reduced out outgoings considerably. The next big finance moves will be a massive rebate back to KEFI PLC (circa $10m) and a huge reduction in costs (down to $1m) as staff and costs are seconded into TKGM.

Things have never looked better for KEFI :-)

Fair play to anybody who tried to trade this, hoping for a surprise RNS of a bit of a drop today on another delay.

Hasn't worked out this time, but you've as fair a crack of the whip now as anybody else.

The next few days are going to be epic!

DVHarrison, yes, until that RNS drops KEFI is still a completely different animal. It's a binary bet on whether KEFI will go from a speculative explorer to a bona fide miner. Explorers are valued on whatever the market thinks they're worth, based on what they might find or sell - it's all speculative and volatile, and determined by whatever way the wind of sentiment is blowing.

When this RNS lands, that all changes. KEFI becomes a miner with an asset. That asset can be valued, and while there will still be some sentiment driven volatility, it will be in a much narrower band, centred around that definitive Valuation figure.

The current sp is an indicator of how confident the market is on KEFI closing this deal and transforming into a miner, and the current sp would suggest that there's not a lot of confidence! If the market was confident then the sp would be double or triple where it currently it, and you'd only see a 100%-200% re-rate on sign-off.

Because of KEFI's 'jam-tomorrow' promises for the last 5 years, confidence and expectation does not reflect reality and I believe that the market has gotten it wrong. This is exactly what investors should be looking out for - examples of where the market has gotten a valuation wrong. In this instance it id due to emotion and sentiment clouding judgement.

That is what has presented this opportunity. Perhaps I am wrong and Harry will prove the market right (which doesn't really have any huge cost because the market has already priced in a fair chance that it will be knocked back), but if I am right and the whole market has to react to being wrong, then there will be a huge re-rate.

Be fearful when others are greedy, but be greedy when others are fearful!!

Catbert, I agree that 20% is way too high, but it was on the extreme of what I thought was 'worse-case-reasonable'.

I suppose the point that I was making, was that even with the most pessimistic approach to the Valuation calculations, KEFI is still easily nearly 10p per share all day long. If you make the calculation a bit more reasonable and realistic, then that very quickly rises to 15p+, and if you consider that most companies in KEFI's position are considered speculative plays (ie the market expects things to get better, therefore forward buys) then it's very easily a 20p+ share price.

It's really hard not to draw comparisons to the way the GGP share-price behaved during it's first peak assent up its Lassonde curve. Thankfully we're on the second peak with KEFI, so instead of falling off a cliff KEFI's should keep rising as KEFI matures into a mid-tier miner over the next decade.

Bonkers lol

Somebody told me to unfilter Dave for a laugh.....

I'd a good chuckle at you suggest that because I was in EUA and GGP during their meteoric rises (which I done really well out of), that it somehow discredits what I am saying about KEFI? In fact I am really proud of how I predicted EUA, and particularly GGP. I've had the odd one not go that well too, so I don't like to blow my own trumpet, but it's nice that you have.

Yes I sold up in both those companies, and that money is now in KEFI, and when KEFI's sp rises to reflect reasonable value I will sell (or at least heavily top-slice) KEFI and put my money somewhere else that is more undervalued. If the sp doesn't get to a level I consider reasonable value then I will enjoy KEFI's dividends and wait a while longer. Eventually I will sell though. This is an opportunity to make money, not something I invest in for the love of Harry or the people of Tulu Kapi.

That's how this thing works - spot something under-value, buy it and wait for the market to correct. I'm not sure how pointing that out is the 'burn' that you think it is? And yes, I bought KEFI back in '21, got caught with a placement, did better research and sold up because it was obvious that the project was still years away. I now believe that this is he optimum time to be investing in KEFI, and so I have.

I am also happy to share my research with others in the hope that they can also benefit an do well out of KEFI.

Perhaps you should spend more time working on your sums for KEFI, and less time reading the last 5 years of my LSE posts :-D

It's not about percentage gain. The asset going from something intangible and speculative, to an asset that can be valued and nailed down.

The percentage gain is determined by how low the sp was in the speculative stage. The post-de-risked price is just going to be what it's going to be. That price is determined by the quantity of gold in the ground, the price of gold, and the cost of extracting it. None of that cares about what the sentiment was, or the share-price was, back before finance was signed off.

The percentage gain (which is where we can make profit) is therefore determined by how low the speculative sp was before sign-off. Thanks to Harry, and a very vocal band of early investors who got suckered over and over during the orphan period, sentiment and sp is in the absolute gutter.

KEFI has been hugely over-hated for the last few years, which is where the huge opportunity lies for PIs. I personally think that the KEFI re-rate is going to be unlike anything any of us have ever seen before. And even if it's only half as good as that, I'll still be a very happy (and wealthy) man!

Serendipidity. personally I think that 20% is a really conservative allowance. Basically saying that there is a 1 in 5 chance of complete catastrophe black swan event (total loss). Ethiopia is not the same country that it was a decade or more ago. Still issues, but a 20% allowance is prudent imo.

Increasing this to 33% (one in three chance of total loss) decreases the sp to 7.3p FWIW.

Personally I don't think that Harry = delays. They road-map to get to this point has been fairly typical, and it only feels like delays because of Harry's false promises. From here to first production will be driven by contractors, and Harry won't really have a whole lot of impact. I have already allowed a 15% discount for time though, which would typically be more like 10%.

Good to hear your thoughts though.

I struggle to get my head round anybody investing significant sums here (or anywhere!) without taking five minutes to calculate a Valuation.

Seen all sorts of forecast for the sp following sign-off, but every time I read one I am bamboozled as to how the number is arrived at. If you are just plucking a number out of your hole, or basing your estimate on nothing more than a percentage gain from our current sp, then you should state that.

What I'd love to see though, would be people posting their forecasts along with back-up. If you are going to suggest that the sp will be 2p, 3p, 4p, etc following sign-off, then explain how you have arrived at that conclusion. That's the really important part that lets people decide whether to consider the validity of what you are saying.

The most pessimistic NPV that I can reasonably come up with (only 1.05moz, 15% discount for time, 20% discount for jurisdiction, $1,100/ oz AISC, etc) is 9p. Even with a huge discount for historic sp impacting sentiment, traders-sell-off, etc, etc. I can't see any way that the post sign-off sp will be anything less than 5p. More likely to be in the 6p-7p range, and there is every chance of seeing 8p+ if sentiment flips from fear to greed.

Working out for 9p NPV:

1.05moz@ $3,800/oz PoG, less $1,100/oz AISC x 80% for KEFI = $2,268,000,000 = £1,678,320,000

Less 20% for Jurisdiction risk = £1,342,656,000

Assuming 7-year mine life = £191,808,000 pa cash-flow (KEFI themselves expect £300m pa, so this is incredibly pessimistic)

This give NPV (just for TK) of £798,001,788

Add on say £30m for SA assets (analysists reckon £50m-£75m)

Divide it by all the shares and warrants (9.6b, and ignoring all the funds we'd get from the warrants) gives a KEFI NPV sp of 0.9p

This is the worst reasonable case that I can come up with. Reserves are more likely to be triple the 1moz, gold is likely to be $4k when we start and rising over next decade, exchange rate is also likely to move in our favour. Yet with all that the reasonable NPV is still 9p.

I get that the market might not immediately go straight to the NPV, but even it was to apply a 50% discount, that's still nearly 5p.

What is more likely to happen over the next 12 months is that, KEFI becomes a really good speculative play (similar to GGP with Scallywag - only with much less risk!). With only 1moz of gold declared, the next step is further exploration to update the DFS, as well as under-ground mine study. It doesn't take a genius to work out that this will likely triple the gold reserves, and it won't be long before the market is starting to speculate on that. With 3moz (everything else the same), then NPV becomes 24p per share.

I fully believe that by this time next year KEFI will be well on it's way towards that, and at least 12p per share, helped along by gold prices and positive news from our Saudi assets.