Member Info for Stebo

"When It Rains Gold, Put Out The Bucket"

I like that. :-D

I've got all my buckets out, and we've just had the first spits of rain. I've checked the weather forecast and I can see the dark clouds rolling it. I'm not going to be collecting my buckets until they are over-flowing!!

I shouldn't have even bit. Into the green bin of oblivion.

L1b3rtarian, the issue is that you haven't a notion what you are talking about. Stick your NPV / NAV calculations in here and show you have actually done some research and can back up what you are saying.

"sell the news" happens when there has been an over-valued "buy the rumour" that has been pumped.

What is happening with KEFI is completely different.

If KEFI gets the finance deal signed off, then it becomes a junior miner, with 80% of a £mulit-billion asset. This is the key that unlocks huge huge value.

It is the inherent realisation and creation of genuine and massive value. There is still a risk that it could all fall apart, or be delayed, but once that risk has been put to bed the upside is massive. This is one of those few opportunities, where PIs who are comfortable to carry risk have an edge over the IIs. We can get in now and take advantage of the re-valuation that will happen when TK is derisked.

This will not be a "sell the news" once the RNS drops. It will be a scramble for de-risked and hugely under-valued shares. Institutions will be piling in and more risk adverse PIs will be scrambling for shares. If you can buy de-risked KEFI shares for less than 5p it will be like getting free money.

The sums don't like, and the calculations are very simple. KEFI have a huge gold mine, and the cost to extract are tiny. This stuff isn't rocket science.

Is L1b3rtarian another one on Bonkers alter-egos?

Clearly just arrived here to manipulate and sow doubt and fear.

"I'll let you guys know when to sell"..... how about we let you know where to eff off to.

Another one for the green bin, along with the rest of Bonkers' usernames!

Yes, Currently (until deal is signed off) KEFI PLC have 95% of Tulu Kapi (effectively 100% but the EG get a 5% free carry). Part of the deal is that they give up equity in Tulu Kapi to various parties (primarily various different local and national government bodies in exchange for $$$, which will end up with KEFI owning 80% of Tulu Kapi. For a long time this was reported as 80-85%, but it looks now as if it is more likely to be 80% in the final deal.

KEFI will hold this through 100% owned subsidiary KME, who will hold 80% of TKGM. TKGM is that specific gold mine.

The part that I like is that KME, still hold 100% (or 95% when gov get their free 5%) of any other satellite discoveries within the license. So upside is leveraged towards KEFI, as opposed to shared with TKGM.

Redacted, regarding your question about the KEFI meeting in Nov to get shareholder approval on the bank finance.....

..... TKGM don't intend to draw down the bank finance until close to the end, because it will start accruing interest costs. The first tranche of money will come from the civils and groundworks contractor (BCM) who are stumping up $23m and the Ethiopian Government agencies. Then it will be the local investors and Ethioprefs, etc. Those forms of finance have non-time-related costs associated to them, so it makes sense to use that first.

Then eventually it will be drawn down funds from the banks, which will be accruing interest.

Once we have sign-off the loans are secured. Drawing down the money is just a formality, as and when it is needed. It would be senseless to have the money sitting in TKGM accounts paying full interest to the banks.

"Can anyone do the maths on what first year production will be ,the AISC and the profit generated. Just t help people who are needing some clarity as to the potential here"

Rudimentary...

160,000 oz @ ($3,900 PoG - $1,100 AISC) = $448m

KEFI @ 80% equity = $358.4m

In £ = £266m

Per share = circa 2.7p pure profit, just in Year 1

This ramps up to 200koz pa in Y2 forward, so add 25% to everything from Y2 onwards

Yes, for a long time people were saying it was crazy to think that the sp would be 2p before sign-off, moving to 5p+ and rising after sign-off.

All of a sudden this week, that's no longer looking so unlikely.

When the sp is at 15p, people will start to run the numbers, and 40p per share will start being discussed as a reasonable upside potential.

I completely understand though that it's currently just disregarded as crazy-talk though. I'll enjoy finding out though!

"Let's just take it one day at a time Stebo. Excel is good but reality will tell"

Excel is why I'm not surprised by the current sp, and had the confidence to fill my boots at 0.5p and for months was calling KEFI over-hated.

Find where the market is wrong, prove it view 'excel', load up and sit back and wait for the market to correct.

That is my strategy. :-)

I went through this with that bonkers idiot at length, before i filtered him.

Proved to him (using the cost of extraction, plus cost of processing, per ton) that all of the 1.7moz in the resource would fall into reserves if the DFS was re-ran using gold price of $3,000/oz. Also proved to him that the cut-off grades previously used were based on the commercial viability of gold at a price of $1,400/oz.

So the reserves increase to 1.7moz with high level of certainty

the 1.7moz increases (at least 20%) with a high level of certainty

that gives at least 2moz from the open pit

the underground was touted at 1moz back when gold prices were less than $1,500/oz. So if that was medium certainty back then, then it's med-high certainty with gold pushing $4,000/oz

Likely far far more, but I will eat my hat if there isn't at least 3moz at TK.

The main reason is the low AISC, and high gold price, which makes processing lower-grade gold viable for TK when it would not be commercially viable for the likes of GGP.

Thegoan.... don't "imagine"... run the numbers.

KEFI's cost base is almost half of GGPs for a start! The sums don't lie, and 4moz is not that much of a blue sky scenario. Or just 3moz (more or less already nailed on just at TK) but $5,000/oz has the same impact and forecasts a 40p share price.

Justaguyinashed

Are you a realist enough to sit down and do the sums?

If we get 3moz of gold, AISC stays at $1,100/oz, 10% discount for jurisdiction, and price of gold goes to $4,000/oz (all very likely) then I get a sp forecast of 30p. It doesn't take much to change (eg gold push on up, or SA project to make it to production) to change that 30p to 42p. For instance if the reserves were to increase to 4moz (everything else the same) that works out at 40p/share

People need to stop letting the historic spurious sp dictate what is possible for the KEFI sp once become a miner. They said the same things about GGP at 2p per share and it went to 40p per share!

Trading is halted

Absolute madness to give away shares for a fraction of their worth, but good luck and glad you're pleased with your profit.

Surely nobody buckled under that tree-shake. A blind man on a galloping horse would have spotted that one :-D

Do your sums, value your shares, hold them until somebody offers you what you've calculated that they are worth!

Don't get manipulated by sp movements - it is literally the MMs job to get you to sell them your shares cheap.

Yeah it was a high-risk play, but the pay-off with KEFI is huge. I was convinced that Gold was going to boom (which it has), and that imo makes TKGM to valuable to fail. Worst case scenario (at the time) was that KEFI was bought out.

It was a big gamble, based on a KEFI forecast valuation of £1.5b (which is circa 15p). It has paid off, and I intend to collect every last penny of my winnings. Worst thing I could do now would be to get tempted by the profits and buckle before realising the full value of my investment.

I doubled my holding following the last dilution. Over the moon about that decision now. Sitting on one bag already.... looking forward to when it's a 10-bagger! :-)

I don't think we'll touch the sides of 3p once sign-off comes to be honest. Crunch the numbers and 5p starts to look like a strong-buy, with 7p-9p looking reasonable.

I've been saying it for years, but it always looked like a crazy, ramp prediction which the share-price was half a penny. Hopefully when we're sitting at 2p prior to sign-off, PIs will start to run the numbers and all of a sudden a 150% rise on sign-off doesn't seem unlikely any more!

Vitautas, a civil war is as likely in the UK right now as in Ethiopia. If you were an Ethiopian reading the headlines coming out of the UK, it is the last place that you'd make an investment lol

Nigel, basing your valuation on percentage gain is insanity :-b

Do your calculations. Work out what your KEFI shares are worth. Don't give them away for less than that! Simples

I agree that the sp likely won't match the NPV (and if it get's close, to the point that it's no longer under-value, then that's when I sell). However 14p is the NPV as soon as it's de-risked, which will rise to 20p+ as we get to production (or if DFS is revised). Within the next two years the sp will 100% be well north of 14p. If a bit of hype gets going, social media, etc start to pump KEFI (as happened with GGP) then we could easily go beyond our NPV based on speculation around TK growth, PoG growth, SA opportunities, etc.