Member Info for Stebo

@StephenX

"Despite all the squabbling both pro and con; volume is the major issue; there just isn't any!

As for the funding; I am the biggest critic of funding and had that convo with Harry directly. I still don't get the need for the last placing and the Iran excuse. It made little sense to me and then the last placing was for funding exploration? None of it really added up including the sudden evaporation of the oversubscribed bonds and other sources of funding.

That said; this should be a line under it all now. There will be no more placings Harry said unless disaster/delays. The issue is that the market simply doesn't believe a word he says sadly hence no new buying. How is that to change? Well; quite simply, evidence of lyco on the ground with new shiny kit and doing things (from August) will help followed by drawdown to pay for a lot of things (October I believe). Once that is locked in then I think this might start gaining some traction. I can't see anything else moving this until then unless they can bring some evidence in advance and show it."

I have to agree with a lot of this. Placing is done, but there seems to still be some overhang lingering, and also it seems that all interested buyers have already filled their boots. With no imminent news I expect that only changes in gold price will effect the KEFI sp until we start to get closer to Aug, when we're expecting to get some progress updates on construction, then when we hit Oct it will be interesting to see if the mob who have been saying "I'm not investing until I see finance funds in KEFI's bank accounts" are right, and the first drawdown will be the catalyst to finally light the re-rate fuse.

But.... we're half way through July, Aug is only round the corner.... perhaps we'll have a stagnant week or two more, but it won't be long until anticipation starts to build for an Aug update, and by the end of Aug Oct won't be very far away....

It has been a long wait while watching a suppressed sp, even since we de-risked at the end of last year, but the date of first pour hasn't changed, and the value of the business plan is still so massive that it's hard to even contemplate. The longer the sp stays low, the steeper the rerate will be and the better opportunity we have for accumulation.

@fantasy

"Ebitda number that Harry quoted in AGM was incorrect, because it assumes zero dilution from here. We know we have another 24 months to go for production. Whilst vast majority of TK will be funded by debt but other expenses in the company will need to come from dilution."

Every once in a while somebody posts something that gives you the measure of whether they actually know what they're talking about or not. Fantasy thinking that dilution will change EBITDA just revealed that he hasn't a notion, and is likely just here to meddle. Hopefully not a shareholder, for his own good, as he clearly lacks any financial literacy.

"Realistically if the gold price recovers and kefi

draws down the first tranche from the bank, then

this share price should be between 1.5 - 2p by

December.

Unless it's currently overvalued ."

Do some maths. It is clearly significantly under-valued. It has a £140m mcap FFS!!!

Should already be 2p, and easily 5p by Christmas, more reasonably much more.

Just look at the AISC, the PoG, the Reserves and the risks. It's a simple calculation, and currently an unbelievable opportunity for buyers who can get in at these prices

2p way sooner that that. As soon as gold recovers (starting) there will be a rush. The path is cleared to 2p, and we’ll be there in a flash. 2p will be a bit of resistance, but I reckon minimum of 5p by Christmas, unless gold really pushes on. If it wasn’t for the recent dilution it would be way more than that.

Gold starting to look perky!

If anything "the death valley" sounds ominous, but it is exactly where you want to be making your investment.

All the big capital gains are in the growth in sp as the project moves from feasibility to production.

Yes you can spend all day talking about what might go wrong, but that's the whole point. The alternative is to wait until KEFI is in profitability, and at that stage you can buy your shares for 10p+ and maybe make 10% per year.

I've always considered "death valley" to be the period between discovery and the start of construction, because often finding a source of project finance is more difficult than finding the gold!

We are now out of death valley, but just out of it. By the time construction finishes and production starts the sp will be way way higher, so it's not right to say that construction is 'death valley'. I would suggest that construction is the bridge between death valley and the second peak.

The Lassonde curve is something viewed over a time-scale of decades. Looking back in years, when KEFI is 20p+, the whole of 2026 will just look like a blip.

The 0.5p was sentiment based, and not value based. Same at the current price.

As I've said for the last year or so, KEFI is hugely over-hated, to the point of being irrational.

Regardless of sentiment though, when TK becomes a money printing machine, that sentiment will go out the window and the sp will be based on the earnings.

The void between those two number is absolutely massive...... thus the sensational opportunity with KEFI.

It's not the 2p that was surprising, it was the 0.5p. Look at the mcap. Look at the assets, even as they would be valued for today by an administrator. We're back in that sub-value phase now.

@ericmca

"Welcome Xhita. You quietly DYOR, you accumulate a holding of x hundred thousand euros, then you come onto this board and explain your reasoning. We learn about mine construction, N African politics, geological facts, how stockmarkets get things wrong.

The Kefi share price falls.

You then analyse the board's decison making, AIM's failings, institutional investors' blindness. You buy more.

The Kefi share price falls.

You patiently explain annual rainfall in Ethiopia, tribal factions in North Africa , and the state of road building in Oromia. You explain where the US Fed and government are going wrong. En passant, you mention your experience in mining, finance, deal making, currency dealing, construction projects.... Your buying seems to be petering out - £4k at a time now.

The Kefi share price falls.

You start arguing with other posters, refuse to accept any other views...and crow about your under market price bids.

The Kefi share price falls.

You're now ranting and calling complete strangers deluded, blind, mental losers.

Welcome to the Kefi LSE board."

This is a familiar story, except you missed out the last few chapters. The last time this tale was told, the sp dropped to 0.5p..... and then Harry closed the finance deal and the share price shot up to 2p. I personally took dogs abuse on here for being bullish on KEFI, while the sp was falling..... it didn't bother me then, and it bothers me even less now that I am significantly in profit, even at 1p.

Still buying heavily and looking forward to seeing 5p in the coming months, which will be all the sweeter when I see all the posts saying that it won't happen.

"Fair enough Stebo, as we talk the SP is 1.03."

And you haven't sold..... so

You don't use a model to tell you today's sp - it's right there in front of you.

A model is a way to ascertain actual value, so that you can understand if a share price is over-value or below value. You can also then extrapolate that model forward to forecast what actual value will be in the future. This is what a model is and why models are used.

You are saying that your model says we're currently over-priced, but yet you don't sell. My model says that we are under-priced and thus I am buying with every penny I can afford. Perhaps I just have more conviction in my model..... or perhaps you're also a buyer but would like to manipulate the sp lower so you can accumulate at lower prices?

Model says over-priced..... but continues to hold and buy...... hmmmmmm

I genuinely laugh out loud every time I see him mention 'his model'

We chatted about it a few pages back and absolutely tore it to shreds

From what I see, the people frustrated in the management seem to be so due to the illusion that the management exist to raise the share price. Actually the management exist to run the company and deliver projects and profitability. Harry and the team, have excelled at that. The frustrating thing is that they have leaned heavily on the markets (which is why the markets exist in the first place) to do so, which has not been in shareholders' interest to date.

Every man is playing for himself though. When KEFI comes good, and we're all making lots of profit and lifting huge dividends for zero effort, people won't be so critical..... even though his performance won't have changed.

@BlueSquare Bulk earthworks have been on-going for months, but for ancillary bits of the project like access roads, new housing, etc. The actual mine itself is open-pit, so really as soon as the bulk excavation works commence then they're effectively 'mining'. Huge milestone, but it's the final part of the construction.

I do agree though, it would be nice to see some photos of the project construction, even if its only earthworks reductions for the processing plants, levelling the camp, etc. The optics of some shiny new caterpillars being erected on site would be great optics for the share price. I know that KEFI have cited security reasons previously for lack of photos, but hopefully that risk is reduced once the community has been relocated and compound security established.

2p is only a £300m mcap. Ludicrously low. SA alone is easily 20% of that.

I think that by now everybody with two braincells to rub together accepts that over the long term the SP will be much much higher than today. But AIM is driven by greed, and so SP will be dictated by whether the fickle AIM market thinks that the sp is more likely to go up on down over the short term. Greedy investors want to buy as cheap as possible, even if they know that in the long term the sp will be much higher. At the minute there's the hope from some that the sp will go even lower so the can buy as cheap as possible.

Eventually though the price will start to rise, buyers and de-rampers will give up trying to get in any cheaper, and the sp will very quickly start to rise. At that time it will keep rising until people get into decent profit and start to bottle it. So the further out from production we are, the sooner the price rise will start to taper off.

If the price was to start rising again today I expect that we'd be well past 2p before it even starts to slow. If it bumbles along like this for a while longer, then starts to rise, it would keep going until much higher imo.

If you want to do well from KEFI though, worry about what the price will be in 2028!

@GoldQueen

Hey Chat GTP, does this sound like an AI response.....

......"Yes, it has several characteristics that make it read as AI-generated"

@Sellmethispen "It doesn’t matter how good the company and management are and with all the upcoming positive news that’s due, while the gold price is weak and the dollar is strong our share price will reflect that. I’m not being negative because I am a long term holder and see great things for this company, however in the short term the above points will keep us down."

The gold price is over $4000 per oz. That is not "weak". Our AISC is circa $1,000/oz. That's $3,000/oz margin!!! We've got millions of ounces.

If the gold price was in the regions where there was a risk of it falling to the point on non-profitability, and therefore the project might be shelved, then you'd have a point. Or if your sp was circa 15p, with $4,000/oz profitability priced in, which was now being eaten away at, then you'd have a point. But we are talking about whether KEFI is netting $700m pa or $600m pa..... all while our mcap is £140m!!!

@cjm682 ...." (some WAY too much, and over exposed - I think one poster has EVERYTHING in KEFI 🤣)"

FWIW I have "everything in KEFI", 100% of my portfolio, and it has been that way since 2025 when I was able to buy shares for 0.55p. It was a bold move, but so far it has been incredibly successful for me. Personally I consider the shares to be even better value now, in regard to the risk now only being a fraction of what it was back in 2025. I'm still only accumulating KEFI, and unless I find something with a better risk:reward prospect I don't see that changing any time soon.

I could (just about) afford to loose it all, but I also don't see any other opportunities with as attractive a proposition over the next 2-3 years.

I find it mental that I can still buy shares in this business proposition at this stage for this price, and I have no intention of looking this particular gift horse in the mouth.

When the sp finally starts to reflect the opportunity and inherent value, then my portfolio will grow to such a value that I could no longer live with myself if I lost it all, and so eventually I will start to divest and diversify, but currently I have no such notions, and I also have zero complaints about how it's all panning out currently.

Some crap on here today. If I have to read one more chat GTP copy and paste, clearly generated from some ropey prompt, I think I'm going to throw up.

And regarding the weather, I'm just looking at the satellite images right now, and there's not a cloud in the sky.