Member Info for Stebo

@Mibb That's exactly the game. Spot what the market has gotten wrong, and have patience to wait for the correction.

And I don't think there is another company on the markets as clearly and hugely undervalued as KEFI. Everybody hates Harry and his nonsense..... and I hope to profit from that :-)

Harry can frustrate and bs and lie all he likes......... but at the end of the day, there's still over five billion dollars worth of gold in Tulu Kapi!!

@StephenX

If you go back through my posts you also see that I've also always said that it's a process, and yes there will also be more steps to that process. Even once finance is sorted, there will always be more stages to the process, right up to first pour.

The value at TK is there though, and it is massive. Once the finance is fully signed off, a portion of that speculative value has to be reflected in the sp.

In regard to me being confused - I'll perhaps echo what is stated in RNS, but at the same time I manage my expectations.

For instance, there was nonsense on here earlier about the first production now being delayed from 2027 to 2028, caused by a misunderstanding in reading of the RNS. I commented to correct that misunderstanding and clarify that there has not been any delay or slippage. But at the same time I am a realist, and if there is a construction delay and things do slip, I won't really be surprised or shocked.

@StephenX The finance package hasn't been signed-off yet. All sp forecasts are based on what happens once KEFI is de-risked. Until KEFI is de-risked, it remains "at risk", including risk of delays, collapse, etc.

And I don't think that it's unreasonable to say, here's a forecast and it's based on this or that. I'm not mistic meg. I have a calculator and I can calculate the effect of a cause. But unless the "cause" happens, then the effect isn't going to happen. Criticising me because the banks need a wet signature, isn't the point-scoring you think it is.

I've said many many times about how high risk KEFI is. If it wasn't then we'd all be multi-millionaires.

@Bonkers0801 "Ggp nearly has a billion in the bank , debt free and many millions of confirmed oz , kefi will never have any of that"

They said the same things about GGP when the sp was 2p. I know because I was invested, and had the conviction to see it through to high 20s.

And GGP 'have benefited' from the gold price, again this hindsight is pointless discussion. If you are a gold bull though, then just invest in gold or a gold ETF, etc. You're clearly just on here pumping GGP because you're a holder.

You're clearly still confused in the difference in investing in a gold miner, and being a gold miner! The reason it is better to have to wait for 2 years for KEFI to commence production is that their sp is currently 1.2p!!! That's the whole point. Fast forward two years and KEFI will fall into the same camp as GGP, and I expect that I will have sold a majority of my shares and have invested in the next speculative opportunity.

You don't invest in the company, you invest in the opportunity. GGP is a spent cartridge. They have 'made it'. They are a fantastic business, but a horrible investment if you are looking to make a significant return.

Bonkers, I'm not sure you understand how speculative investment works lol

There's not much point in looking at GGP now, the only way to make money there was to jump in a time-machine. You may as well say "look at Apple" or "look at Rio Tinto".

The idea is to spot the winners before they've won the race.

@Theanalyzer "Some of the negative posters on here are undoubtedly still influenced in their views based on the long history to progress the mine development and constant fund raises to get to the current state."

I think most of the negativity is by posters who are being influenced by their own panic-selling, looking for some validation for their actions. Regardless of your views on KEFI, yesterday was an absolutely horrible time to sell, and there was nothing in the RNS to merit the sp reaction. The only negative was the news that GMCO equity has dropped 2%.

Anybody who sold yesterday (or currently), has simply been spooked by the sp movement. I haven't seen a single argument to suggest why KEFI is worth less this week than it was last week. In fact, with gold being up $150/oz, if anything KEFI is worth an extra $180m this week!!

Edit, sorry "full production" is when everything is optomised.

We're still on the same time-line, and production has not moved. The only "delay" has been regarding full sign-off, which TW has explained is just an admin thing around getting wet signatures.

Commissioning is first production. Full commissioning is when everything is fully optimised, but we'll be pouring gold in 2027.

@MRPlumper .... and how many wished that they had bought at 0.5p just after the previous placement!

This sp action has happened before, and have always proven to be a buy opportunity!

A few weeks time and this place will all be back to "Cry God for England Harry and St George" lol

@StephenX

It's not the market's 'fault'. The market just does what it does. The 5p by Christmas was obviously based on full and final sign-off of everything before then, as we all expected. That still hasn't happened.

Personally I appreciated the RNS (I prefer to know what's happening than be left speculating in the dark), and the short-term sp movement is fairly irrelevant to anybody with a LTH plan.

Personally I'm pretty pleased with the RNS, but seems like the traders in the market are the ones dictating the sp, and they're only interested in sign-off.

@BIXY ... What has changed? A little bit of dilution, negated by 83% equity, and gold price rising significantly in the period.

Who's saying that this won't be 3p-5p shortly after sign-off?

FWIW though, you should do your own research and calculations, not base investments on what people on the internet say!

Magic: "Was there anything in today's RNS that would've made somebody buy today when they didn't want to buy yesterday?"

The extra Reserves that are going to be processed from the stock-piles is huge imo. It's also the first time that KEFI have started to commercially consider the impact that the current price of gold would have to the 2015 DFS.

"we start with the foundation of the open pit plan as approved by the Lenders, for recovery and sale of 984,000 oz of gold and we then:

· increase the gold planned to be recovered and sold by processing all low-grade stockpiled ore grading above 0.5g/t and also introduce initial production from within the already-drilled underground Mineral Resources. The net effect is that total ore tonnes processed increases by 10% to 17 million tonnes and average grade increases by 14% to 2.4 g/t for 1,215,000 ounces of gold recovered and sold"

There's and extra $0.5b added to the NPV right there!!

The market is reacting to the market. People are panic-selling, because the sp is falling, without even really thinking about what they're doing.

In reality it's just a curiosity of the MMs dumping placement churn, at the same time as an RNS has dropped. Arms-length investors / traders presume that the RNS was negative (because of sp direction) and are reacting.

I wonder how many of today's sellers have even read the RNS in full! :-D

Longinthetooth - I think you're missing the point.

To get the mega-GGP-like returns, you have to buy when it's low price and high risk.

I held GGP from very low prices up to 25p+

I remember people laughing at NPV calcs showing potential 32p, while the sp was at 5p

I intend to do the same with KEFI, and I am very confident that we will see 20p+ share price within the next 30 months.

Some nonsense spouted on here today lol

It's not at all obvious who all has wet the bed, sold out without understanding the RNS, and needs to drag the sp down to get back in lol

Today's update was very welcomed. Mining now only 18 months away, production less than 2 years, full production (and $300m per year profit!!) 6 months after that.

Trying to buy with a limit order of 1.4, but no joy. Seems like mms just fishing for stop-losses.

@Qnard ..."Hi Stebo, I am 60+,been an analyst by trade in the financial arena for over 30 years. My figure not picked out of thin air. It is what I would expect to be presented to me by one of my team. If I/they were to present some of the forecasts on this forum credibility would be shot. I see massive potential upside, but not yet, especially with previous history. I would express caution when expecting massive re-rates (just yet).

I do not disagree that this is undervalued, it's about when that will be corrected. I see a 75% uplift from here, possibly a bit more, then resettlement until we receive more news (e.g. Saudi) or get closer to production. With solid, concrete news, such as drilling results, exciting news from Saudi etc. I will look again. Sorry, I just can't get on the bandwagon just yet."

Respectfully I completely disagree and struggle to see the logic in your logic!

Regarding the "75% uplift from here", is that 75% gain a reflection of the value-adding de-risking event of getting finance fully signed, sealed and delivered? Or is it a case that you have worked out a NPV and it just happens to be 2.7p, and you're just presenting that as percentage gain? The reason I ask is that I view any 'post-finance' forecast, which are based on today's sp, as completely flawed. If on the other hand you have calculated a 2.7p NPV then that's interesting and I would love to hear more about your presumptions and allowances.

I personally also disagree with your statement about how the sp will move "with solid, concrete news, such as drilling results, exciting news from Saudi, etc". Even if we got the best conceivable news from SA, etc. it will still only be a drop in the ocean compared to what we have sitting before us on a silver platter at TK. If 15% of the best conceivable news at SA is worth a couple of pence, then circa 80% of TK is surely already worth ten times that.

I do recognise your position, and agree that it carries some weight from a sentiment and market movements point of view, but imo the under-value of KEFI, based just on TK, will 100% lead to a complete re-rate. Time-line is hard to say, but you would expect that there's a good chance that this correction will happen in tandem with de-risking, but definitely prior to production.

@Qnard ... I feel like the 2.1p-2.3p figure has been plucked from thin air, and is presumably based on today's sp plus a bit?

My issue with those kinds of forecast is that they don't recognise how crazy low the current sp is (due to a history of missed deadlines, etc). If we were sitting at 5p, I suspect that you'd be forecasting that we'd perhaps go to 7p, then fall back to 6p.

At some stage that "over-hated" discount to KEFI's sp will reverse. One would presume that this will be soon after finance is signed off, and we finally throw that 'jam-tomorrow' monkey off our backs.

Personally the value that I see in KEFI, is how chronically under-valued we currently are. When KEFI finally proves itself, and that sentiment reverses, then all bets are off when it comes to the sp imo

@mibb that's just it. No matter how obvious it is, people simply refuse to believe it until it's too late.... then once it has happened (like with GGP) all of a sudden, looking back it was so obvious!

I remember being laughed at for suggesting that GGP would be 20p, back when it had already rocketed from 2p to 6p.

I have absolutely zero doubt that KEFI will be 20p per share within the next 5 years, potentially a lot sooner.

@Mibb Great reply. I can't believe that thon Bonkers idiot still shows his face on here lol

It really all is just simple maths and forecasting. Even with a huge discount, and really conservative forecasting, the sp is many many multiples of today's price.

What is happening with KEFI, while not common, is not unremarkable. The clinker with KEFI is that typically you'd expect our mcap to be sitting at maybe £500m-£700m, with potential to rise to well over a £billion. The reason that KEFI is so attractive is that due to its history the sp is absolutely on its knees. Even just to correct back to anything approaching fair-value is a huge gain, before even considering potential upside.

@StephenX i should also add that when I mentioned 5p by Christmas, I suppose it was based on the assumption of HAA's time-line, which at the time was presumed to be deal done early Nov, shareholder meeting called by end of Nov, with a show-boat sign-off ceremony in early Dec.

I'm not that worried that we've to wait a few more weeks, but obviously that pushes any sp predictions by a similar time-frame. Predictions are 'events-based', not 'calendar-based' (particularly with KEFI)!!