Member Info for Stebo

@NigelHaemoglobin ... where are you reading that "we look to be retaining 75%"?

I know that the RNS example NPV calc is based on a (conservative) hypothetical 75%, but is there something tangible that you're basing your comment on?

@StephenX

I wouldn't say it's a change in attitude. FWIW, I would see a fairly immediate jump to say 5p, and then a gradual rise over construction period towards 20p as a 'building slowly'. The value at TK seems to still go completely over the heads of investors. I guess that until sign-off has happened, they'll not take the time to do the research, and just casually mark it up as one of those fanciful business plans that are great in theory but "I'll believe it when I see it". Once sign-off actually happens, and they start to 'see it' is when the fireworks begin to happen imo.

@StephenX, I suppose nothing has really changed, and all players have had ample opportunity to 'place their bets'.

The agile PIs have taken advantage of being able to invest at these low prices while we are 99% de-risked, with the IIs still having to wait until we are 100% de-risked before getting involved.

whether the sp rockets on final sign-off, or just slowly builds as IIs start to take positions, remains to be seen.... but for LTH that doesn't really matter. What we can say, with a huge deal of confidence, is that Tulu Kapi is going to be mind-blowingly profitable, and that is going to lead to huge dividends, and by that stage the sp is certain to reflect that.

Not great news for traders, but I expect that LTH are very relaxed. We're 99% de-risked, and we've been gifted an extra few months of accumulation.

Yes, really encouraging update.

Bottom line is that we're pretty much over-subscribed on all fronts. KEFI just need to sit down and gameplan out the various scenarios, which really come down to how bullish we are on the price of gold over the life-time of the project.

It's really fantastic thought that the decision of what way to structure the finance is now in KEFI's hands. Rather than just taking whatever finance we can get, we have all the options laid out before us to cherry-pick from.

Magic, right now (in regard to 'stocks and shares' investments), I am 100% in KEFI.

I have been for a good few months, and it has been a very profitable decision.

I fully understand the exposure, and will need to divest and diversify at some stage, but not even considering it until KEFI is no longer in the "crazy low price, the market has this completely wrong" camp.

Def something stirring.

RNS incoming I reckon

" part of me would prefer it stay under the radar even longer to give me more time to top up"

I'm convinced that this is Bonkers' angle. He knows too much about KEFI and Tk to genuinely think the things he says. He also clearly has a selfish streak, and is obsessed about "rampers" so believes that the things said on LSE can impact sp.

Well, I think that the part that is missed is that when people (like myself) give a sp forecast, it is clearly based on where the sp will be following derisking of finance.

For literally years I have been saying 3p moving very quickly to 5p+ (and potentially a lot more depending on market dynamics), but that is all obviously based on when we actually have sign-off. The bulk of the sp increase will come through II's taking long term positions, IIs who can't invest until finance is 100% signed off. Being 99% of the way there is irrelevant. The sp calculations, predictions and forecasts are all based on an event which hasn't yet happened. It is not a time-frame based context, but an events based context.

So I don't think that people who have forecast the sp look "a wee bit daft". I think only those, who can't comprehend the context of those forecasts, look a wee bit daft.

As Simms says, this business case is so straight forward to value, and even the most pessimistic valuation has this as a multi-billion dollar business.

It's crazy that the rest of the market still can't see the opportunity, but you can either stand around being suspicious of how crazy that is, or you can take advantage and fill your boots.

I filled my boots at 0.5p, and I'm still doing the same at 1.5p.

Had to unblock Bonkers to see what nonsense he was fishing with this morning. Nearly wet myself when I read how he's still obsessing over me.

The problem with Bonkers is that the metrics he uses to forecast the value stocks seem to be things like the current sp, telegram polls, etc. The concept of equilibrium price seems to completely go over his head. If the masses we already aware of KEFI, TK's resources and recently diminished risk, etc., then it would no doubt be much higher in his telegram poll, but also the sp would be much higher, and therefore KEFI wouldn't represent the opportunity that it currently is.

The whole point of KEFI as an investment is being able to recognise and calculate the value, and see past the legacy of negativity and 'jam tomorrow'. If KEFI wasn't under the radar, I wouldn't be here!

Taking the 'jam tomorrow' analogy, Bonkers stupidity is that he fixates on how long KEFI has been 'jam tomorrow' and fixates on how the general market have calked KEFI up as a 'jam tomorrow' business. Bonkers however has had the insight to actually see the jam delivery lorry pull round to the back of the shop, watch as the jam gets unloaded and taken into the shop, and has had the owner tell him "we've finally had the jam delivery, there actually will be jam tomorrow"...... but he has such a narrow field of vision that he simply refuses to believe it.

We should be thankful for people like Bonkers. If Bonkers and his type didn't exist then the sp would be reflective of how close we are to de-risking. Thanks to the likes of Bonkers we have this opportunity.

Pierre... "Let's talk transmission lines, substations, the feasibility thereof, who is paying for it and who is doing the work."

If you had done any research at all you would know the answer to this, and that it is zero cost to KEFI and zero risk.

Do some basic research before making a tit of yourself.

nigel, do you genuinely think that there is a chance that this project will not happen?

and if it happens, and we are pumping out $300m pa pure profit, do you not think that the sp will be many multiples higher than it is today?

at this stage we don't need to be ****y, or do we need to be nervous. all we need is a bit of patience, and to step back and see the big picture.

3p short-term is as good as nailed on, 5p-10p is super likely, with heading towards 20p over the next few years also a strong possibility. the upside potential of additional discoveries, and development beyond that is mind-blowing. i'm all for being sensible and conservative, but i can't help but think i would be kicking myself in a few years time if i sold now!

bradley, surely bonkers isn't still posting on this board??

he spent two years telling us all how if kefi ever breached 1p he would bite their hand off and be gone!

regarding exploration, there has already been significant drilling carried out, but it is historic and the assays were carried out based on cut-off-grades appropriate to the sub-$1000/oz price of gold at the time.

back when i used to engage with bonkers (before realising that he's just a troll) i showed him all the calculations to demonstrate that all of the resource estimate was now (very) economically viable to mine, plus right down to a fraction of the cut-off grades previously used. an expert would need to re-run the dfs at $4,000/oz gold price, but from my ***-packet calcs there's very likely 2moz+ of reserves in the open-pit mine. the underground mine has been estimated at 1moz for the last ten years, so with gold now at 400% the value it was back then, i would expect 1moz to be a very conservative estimate.

realistically tulu kapi is already a 3moz mine, which will keep us going for 10-15 years. my preference would be to have the patience to prioritise paying off the finance costs, then we have a decade of self-funded exploration and acquisition. tulu kapi is the company maker, and i believe that in 5-10 years kefi will be a major player in the mining sector.

Reasonable Worst Case:

1.7moz

$3,500/oz gold price

$1,100/oz AISC (inc debt repayment)

75% equity to KEFI

1.7m x ($3,500 - $1,100) x 75% = $3.06b

$3.06b / shares and warrants in issue = 32p per share

Apply whatever discount for time and risk that you see fit, but even with a huge 35% discount, that is still north of 20p per share.... completely ignoring the SA assets, and further exploration and development upside

Reasonable Upside Case

3moz (current reserves, plus estimated underground, ignoring other ore-body growth and satellite deposits)

$4,500/oz gold price (over mine lifespan)

$900/oz AISC (drops to circa $800/oz once debt is serviced)

85% equity (forgoing circa $10m rebate for equity)

3m x ($4,500 - $900) x 85% = $9.18b

$9.18b/ shares and warrants in issue = 96p

Again apply whatever discount for time and risk that you see fit, but with a more reasonable 25% discount, that is still over 70p per share.

There's more to it that this, but when there is such MASSIVE disparity between the value and the price, the nuances of the small numbers (such as what equity we'll end up with, exchange rates, further Assays, etc) just don't really matter that much currently.

The share price is currently less than 1.5p. Opportunities like this only come around once in a decade or less.

Consider yourself a horse drawn to water. DYOR and then decide whether you'd like a drink or not!

StephenX

It's either done (de-risked) or not done. Anybody taking the gamble on getting in cheap pre-de-risking have already bought their stake. Anybody who is waiting for de-risking before investing (such as II's playing by strict rules, etc), will wait until it is 100% signed off.

For me the quantity of gold in the ground, the price of gold, the cost of extraction and the risk profile are all that really matter. Profitability is what will increase the KEFI mcap. The PR is all secondary to that, and while I am still accumulating I am more than happy for KEFI to fly under the radar for a while :-D

I had an average starting with 0.5 at one stage, but since the debt finance de-risking I have been buying every share I can afford and have pulled my average up.

IMO KEFI is better 'value' now, that it was back at 0.5p. Back then it was cheap, but it was also high risk. Now we are low risk, but still incredibly cheap. As a risk:reward prospect, I don't think KEFI has even been as good an opportunity. Even from a time-line point of view, we now have a programme laid out before us for the next few weeks, next few months, and next few years. The current price is just that sweet spot for PIs, between de-risking and II's taking over.

Gold Queen.... "5p by Christmas? The market just shrugged at a positive RNS"

Yesterdays RNS was a nice piece of news, but it didn't really change anything, and I wasn't expecting a significant sp movement. It was effectively just PR.

And it is not sentiment that will move the sp, it is inherent value, through de-risking, and IIs taking up positions. That will come, when we get final details of the finance package, and get full sign-off and project launch.

The value is here, but it hasn't quite been unlocked just yet. All we need is a little more patience. I expect Dec to be a month similar to December.

MF2017 - they've also allowed for a further $10m placement (at 1.5p)!! It is clearly the floor, but this is what these places do - get on the right side of it, but as close to current sp as possible. Nobody is going to complain if they buy on their advice and the sp shoots past their forecast!

StephenX - NPV is a calculation. As I've said, the 5p analysist report today is Ultra-conservative (to the point of being ridiculous).

I believe that by the time we are in production (and closer to dividends) the mcap will be much closer to NPV, but I think that once de-risked the sp will move from the crazy lows we currently have, towards conservative valuations (which will still be way above 5p).

You are saying that it is "basically derisked" at this stage. Basically de-risked is not good enough for IIs, who are investing other people's money based on rigid rules. It is not PI money that will 'get it eventually'. It is IIs who will have been watching KEFI for years who will eventually be able to sign off on investing and get their slice of the action.