Member Info for Stebo

Magic - "I haven't read the RNS, but there will be a dilution" lol

That says it all. Don't let little things, like the actual facts and the RNS, get in the way of spreading a little FUD lol

Magic. There is NOT $60m of dilution.

Only an idiot would think that, and seeing as you have enough metal capacity to set up an LSE user-account I am guessing that you're just trying to spread fear. (with a wee "i think" to try and save your embarrassment lol).

What bit of "US$740-2,292 million" do you not get?

Ericnat17 - "Direct worst and best case benefits to kefi = US$740-2,292 million. So mid case approx $1.5 billion"

FWIW, that $1.5b is 12p per share

the $2.292b is worth 24p per share

from 1.4p to 24p is about 1,700% lol

Stephenx.... we're about 30min into 'the next 6 months'. Let's just wait and see lol

As per the RNS ...

"...Net Cash Flow available for servicing debt and equity capital at c. US$1.9-3.5 billion over 7 years of initial production from within today's open pit Ore Reserves and Underground Minerals Resources.

Industry-standard valuation indicators for 100% of Tulu Kapi building up to US$1.1-2.7 billion on successful start-up. This implies a KEFI beneficial interest of US$740-2,292 million if we retain a beneficial interest for KEFI within the range of 70-85%, which will be determined by negotiations currently underway to optimize the structuring of the equity risk capital."

If you think that Net Cash Flow of $3.5b, and beneficial interest of $2.3b for KEFI, is going to be reflected in a £130m mcap for long, then I don't know how to fix that kind of stoopid lol

This is a mass sell-off from LTH who no longer care about the KEFI story and 'sell the news' traders. But the FACTS are that KEFI have just secured $240m, and a $3.5b gold mine. That is now set in stone. KEFI WILL be netting circa $400m per year from 2027 on. The market will spot and understand this in the coming hours and days, and the re-rate will be significant.

This sell-off was always a possibility, but not something I would have gambled on personally. It is however a short-term window of opportunity to buy shares for 1.5p, with a 'worth' of 20p+. Let's see how long it is before the herd realise that!!

:-D

Vindicated

StephenX "there is no need to just make up stuff."

Eligibility criteria for GDXJ fund:

- 50% of its revenues from gold and/or silver mining, royalties or streaming — or have mining mineral-resources that are at least 50% gold or silver (for new components)

- The company must meet a minimum full market capitalization of US $150 million (for new candidates)

- For companies already in the index, the market-cap threshold to remain may be lower (historically ~$75-$75 m) under certain conditions

- Liquidity, at least US $1 million average daily trading volume over the past three months. Also for new entrants: at least 250,000 shares traded per month over the past six months

- Free‐float requirement: a minimum publicly‐float portion (e.g., at least 10 %) for new entrants

- The index targets companies that rank between the bottom ~60% and ~98% of the full market-cap universe of eligible companies in the small-cap gold/silver mining sector

That is the criteria StephenX. Not just whatever ideas or notions you have about IBo, mcaps or whatever other opinions you have.

KEFI will be eligible, and 100% will, be bought into by GDXJ. The fund is dictated by rules, not fund manager thoughts and opinions. KEFI will fit the eligibility criteria and will be bought into by the fund. If they don't then they could be sued by the fund investors.

You clearly haven't a notion what you are talking about, but continue to state things as though they are facts. People reading your posts really need to have that caveat on the opinions you are giving.

Fat Harry said that it's a really complex agreement, and that timelines may slip a week or a fortnight, but that there is no need for the market to get overly concerned.

If you think that providing communication to update us, with his best guess, is pathetic, then there's a sell button you could hit (if you actually own any shares). This is KEFI, we're well used to this. That sentiment is priced in already, but thankfully Harry's over-optimism doesn't affect the AISC, the price of gold or the TK reserves, so the more people like you wet the bed, the better an opportunity it presents for people like me.

DeeDee, just to bring a sense of scale to the thing, the GDXJ fund is worth $9b

Once we tick that box, they will take a considerable bite

StephenX

You're wrong. A company does not need to be on IOB to be included in GDXJ, and other AIM companies (like GGP) are in GDXJ.

Go and research the parameters for inclusion. As soon as sign-off is confirmed, then KEFI becomes a developer and is eligible for inclusion. That will have a HUGE impact on the KEFI sp, and is well worth researching.

StephenX, the issue isn't whether the sp will be 10p or not, my issue is the narrow-minded and opinion-based sp predictions that get spread and become rhetoric.

For about the last 2 years the general consensus on LSE was that the post sign-off price would be 1p(bear) to 2p(bull). Recently it's more like 3p (bear) to 5p (bull). Apart from maybe a 20% change in price of gold, nothing else has fundamentally changed. The only reason for the change in sentiment is because the current sp is now higher.

Personally I don't really care what individuals target sp are, but when you're promoting them, it influences others. And if you are going to influence others then you should really have a high sense of confidence before putting those numbers out there. Just 'feeling' something isn't really helpful to everybody else on LSE

I've always said that I think it will be 5p plus and rise consistently from there, and I still do (possibly more like 7p now considering the price of gold). That's because my forecasts are based on numbers, not emotion. If somebody wants to come and challenge the numbers, then that's a profitable discussion to be having. If you had said something like "the 10 year average PoG is only $2000/oz, so using $4,000/oz is too high", then that's reasonable discussion. Saying "10p is just ramping" is just antagonising nonsense that clutters up the board (and is also completely wrong!).

PatShare, I respect your response and your attitude. I wasn't intending to have a go at your personally btw, it is just a example of all the "I think" type posts on here.

When the II's start to pile in they don't do it based on their tea-leaves or 'feeling' or whatever tips they've read on twitter. That tidal wave of investment will come of the back of risk-analysis-research and NAV/NPV calculations. After that will come the ETFs like GDXJ, etc who's huge investment is based simply on an algorithm.

I agree with you, that 10p will take time. And the length of time will depend on how many of the current PIs don't understand that worth of their shares and how many and how long it takes that wealth to transfer from the narrow-minded impatient to the logic-based patient investors.

I've waited this long with KEFI, and I don't intend to let some city-boy pull the rug from under my feet any time soon!

PS I am trying to be helpful here (sorry if that doesn't come across in my frustrated tone!), not just critical for the sake of it!

Stephen X...

"You have already rowed back on your comment; you said in time..

I'm not saying it's not worth many multiples of the current SP but you just aren't discounting enough for jurisdiction and AIM. This will not get there by Christmas; that's just a pure ramp. Will it reach 10p if it delivers on production at stated levels; yes it's quite feasible.

Stop being so defensive when challenged on what is a mad timeframe. I will save this post for later; i'd love to be wrong but just can't see it. Will be north of 3p by sign off and maybe 5p by Christmas? That would be amazing and more probable."

Firstly, I said " I will be very surprised if KEFI shares are not 10p at an absolute minimum within 6 months (more likely by Christmas)".

Secondly, I have allowed 25% discount, been incredibly conservative is every metric, and still only said 10p, when the NAV is saying over 13p

Thirdly, you are still spouting absolute nonsense, with zero substantiation. Everything you are saying is just your opinion.

Saying "I can't see it" is worth something if you are a respected and proven analysist, who has sat down and done your sums. Saying "I can't see it", just because that's how you feel is just worthless drivel at best. If you have a genuine counter-argument, I would love to hear it, but back it up with some substance, just just sharing your emotional-reactions with the rest of the group!!

Magic - "You lot are living in la la land if you believe this could reach 10p by Christmas."

Again, you post this nonsense with zero substantiation or backup. Just because your tiny mind can't comprehend it, you think it's not possible. What should be blowing your mind is how KEFI is still only £160m mcap, even through they own a multi-billion dollar gold mine. That's the la la land bit, yet here we are!

PatShare "My thoughts are this will re-rate on sign off to somewhere over 3p, maybe as high as 4p-5p"

Why on earth are you basing your financial decisions on 'your thoughts'. This is really basic stuff. KEFI have told us how much gold they have firmed up (JORC compliant), they have told us what it's going to cost to mine and process, they have told us when it's going to happen, and the Price of Gold is headline news.

I don't know how much you have invested in KEFI, but surely it is worth figuring out how what your KEFI shares are actually worth!!! And it isn't 5p lol

It blows my mind that people are playing with real money here, and yet they won't take 10 minutes to understand the basics.

StephenX, how is saying 10p by Christmas (I actually said within 6 months) ramping?

Even using pessimistic figures:

1moz (more likely 3moz)

$4,000/oz gold (more likely $5,000/oz)

$1,200/oz AISC ($900/oz once debt is cleared)

25% discount for jurisdiction and time allowance for 36 months away from production (which is excessive)

($4000 - $1200) x 1m = $2.8b

80% equity = $2.24b = £1.68b

25% discount = £1.26b

divided by all shares and warrants (9.59b) = over 13p

That is very worse case scenario stuff. If I was ramping I would base that on 3moz+, $5,000/oz+, $900/ oz AISC, Include additional $100m+ for SA, allow 10% allowance for time, etc, etc.

If you are going to accuse me of "ramping", back it up with some substance...... otherwise it is just a regurgitation of all those posters who have accused me of ramping for the last two years, and told me that we would be lucky to see 1p on sign-off, and never in a month of Sundays would we get back to 2p, etc. You have a narrow perspective that is limited by your lack of experience and exposure. At 0.5p you see 1p as a ceiling. At 1p you see 2p as a ceiling, at 2p you see 5p as a ceiling.....

....When is it going to dawn on you that today's share price is determined by what might happen tomorrow, not what has happened yesterday!

Stop putting your finger in the air and 'guessing' the sp based on your feelings. Get out a pencil and a calculator and work it out.

10p is an incredibly conservative call, and I have zero doubt that we will easily surpass it in time. All it takes is discipline to ride out the volatility and patience to wait for the market to come to you.

Doze, I imagine that there will be profit takers, who will jump on the de-ramping bandwgaon and happily see the sp fall again to get another bite of the cherry when it continues to move on upwards.

My thoughts are to just zoom out and look at the big picture..... the numbers being as they are, I will be very surprised if KEFI shares are not 10p at an absolute minimum within 6 months (more likely by Christmas). I also think that it is unlikely that they will re-rate as high as that immediately on sign-off, because all current holders will be massively in profit and the vast majority won't be able to resist the temptation to sell (even if they know it's undervalue!). When the sp is spiking and dipping, in that period of volatility, my plan is to switch off and sit on my hands.

I am content that I will make huge gains, with minimal risk and little stress. If I was to start trying to trade the volatility I am just introducing unnecessary risk and stress, and in the end would likely end up worst off than if I just sat on my hands. When sign off happens, I'll till be looking for my monthly top-ups (unless the re-rate is huge and comes close to where I think fair value is), so I will be looking out for dips to top up on, and that's about as far as my interest in the sp will go until after Christmas.

I'm very much the same. I've bought all I can afford to spend, I'm satisfied that sign-off is imminent. I am now in the 'sit back and chill' mode.

I've done my research, I invested heavily at a great price and now I am excited to just sit back and watch, as the sp both re-rates to reflect the de-risking added-value, and the sp-correction as KEFI transforms from the AIM ugly duckling into the golden swan!

I'm happy with my decisions made. I am happy with where we currently are, and I am looking forward to what is to come over the next two weeks, the next three months, and the next two years.

"SIGNED, but with a side-order of PLACING."

Can somebody explain to me this persisting notion that there is going to be a placing along with sign-off. It makes zero sense and I can't think of any logical reason why this nonsense presumption still gets regurgitated.

There is only one reason I can think of 'placing along with sign-off' being repeatedly mentioned, and that is to cause some kind of sell-off upon sign-off.

Make no mistake, there are huge numbers of people, with deep pockets, interested in KEFI. They don't have the risk tolerance to invest huge sums until the finance is de-risked, but they also know that KEFI is substantially undervalued. The ideal scenario for those sharks is for sign-off to happen, but for the sp to not reflect that de-risking.

When sign-off happens, there will be an absolute barrage of de-ramping and negativity, from all angles. People will want you to panic sell them your shares for hugely under-valued prices. Don't fall for their trap, and the most blatant one is this rhetoric about placings.

Harry confirmed only a week ago that we have cash in the bank, and un-used draw-down facilities available. We also know that KEFI are due huge (region of $10m) rebates from TKGM upon sign-off. There is literally zero reason for there to even be a suspicion of a placement. Don't fall for the emotional manipulation and sentiment-based traps.

Struggling to understand the relevance? Why would it matter whether some PI sold or not, or posts or not?

I post on here a lot less now too, because I reckon that people are finally starting to get the message and see the bigger picture with KEFI. It's just a shame that more on here didn't realise that when the price was a third of what it is now!

UserSteve - most of EG's $20m will have already been spent. They are providing the roads, utilities, etc., which are mostly already in.

Also the EG money is coming from various different sectors within the EG (national, regional, local, etc.).

Just more fearmongering