Member Info for Stebo

Really good and relaxed interview with Harry, Jeff and Chancery.

Chancery's PR machine is great for us KEFI shareholders

@Krok "Don’t understand the market reaction to today’s RNS. Why is it negative?"

Just because the sp isn't up doesn't mean it's negative - all it means is that there's lots of selling.

Personally I suspect that Mithril is unwinding his equity position to manage exposure and also fund his new royalty position. There just isn't the current liquidity to soak up his sells (due to the massive size of his holding), thus sp action. Anybody buying at today's sp is getting an artificially suppressed price and a great deal.

Eventually, who knows when, this selling will stop, and the sp will very quickly rebound.

The confirmation of a move to main market imminently, and that TK construction is still on track, first pour next year, etc. is all hugely positive. This is the confirmation that people were asking for.

I do chuckle and those who panic sell, immediate regret, then come onto here with a bit of FUD in the hope of getting the price back down for re-entry without losing out to the spread lol

Make it less blatant guys

@Xhita 100%. Somebody is panic selling bigtime. Fair play to anybody who can take advantage. I expect that this will bounce hard when the seller has exited.

Whatever it is, Tulu Kapi is still getting built, and this is a huge opportunity for anybody who has spare cash for a top up.

You must be looking at a different L2 to me lol

Looking fairly balanced imo

Back to where the sp was in March. Lets see if we get the same bounce off 1.15 that we seen then.

Crazy crazy cheap. Somebody wetting the bed in a huge way!

@BigBiteNow

That is a good and measured post. With KEFI placements have always been seen as doomsday, because historically it was just to fund Harry & Co's salaries and bonuses. We are now at a very different stage of the game. The last fund-raise negated the need for a hugely expensive royalty deal, and also gave us a massive contingency safety blanket, which massively de-risked the Tulu Kapi project.

As you say, everybody needs to make their own investment decisions, but I think if anybody runs the numbers on the current risk:reward proposition then all those little negatives pale into absolute insignificance when you can wrap your head around the size of the profitability that is on offer, especially considering how crazy cheap shares can still be bought for.

The actual mine is a bit south-east of there by the way. Google maps hasn't been updated since any work has happened, and any satellite imagery that I can find is far too low resolution.

@Ortherncopper and @Xhita

I don't think that we'll ever see another raise. The last raise was far in excess of the funding required to close out the Tulu Kapi budget, even including a generous contingency pot.

KEFI have an additional $25m+ to play with, and Tulu Kapi will be cash-flowing in just over a year. The last GMCO RNS also stated that financing for Saudi projects would be focused on "other non-ownership dilutive capital structures", so GMCO will be self-funding (ie loans or streaming deals / royalties). There may be asset level dilution, or project debt, but there will not be KEFI shareholder dilution.

Once we're cash-flowing TK, the money that will be flooding in will be absolutely obscene. Everything will then be self-funded, so I think we'll never see another KEFI fund-raise again.

If we were going to sell SA it would have already happened, and would have happened instead of the recent fund-raise.

Even though we don't hold huge equity in GMCO, it is still another very profitable revenue stream, and helps to diversify risk going forward, and is also a door opener into future KEFI mines within Saudi.

I would have been happy to see SA liquidated, for the sole reason of getting TK nailed on. But now that TK is done and dusted, there is no immediate need for the capital, and there is now vastly more down-side to selling and very little upside.

@MF2017 "On reflection, I think there is something new—just not in the obvious way. The main takeaway for me is that Saudi now seems to be framed as non-capital-intensive upside, i.e. something that can be progressed without drawing on current funds or taking focus away from Tulu Kapi.

My initial reaction was a bit “meh”, but thinking about it more, this is probably along the lines of what many of us have been hoping for—progressing assets from a position of strength rather than stretching capital.

So credit to Harry and the team on that front."

This is exactly my thoughts. Nice RNS, with a subtle but valuable shift in narrative. To me this would be the sort of housekeeping RNS that would be issued when there are things happening in the background. This is paving the way for the next RNS imo.

@hope2gain .... I'm not sure what you mean by "That's a better looking figure for a producing mine". Have you any evidence to suggest that the shares in issue, or current sp has any real impact on a company's mcap?

Great to have fund-raising now in the rear mirror, and that saga all behind us. Transitioned to mine construction, and already maturing as a company with institutions starting to make their play to get in early.

Consolation is irrelevant to shareholders imo. Makes zero difference.

@vaulted

Bare in mind that those numbers don't take any consideration of SA assets, or any potential new discoveries.

KEFI has been the eternal 'jam tomorrow' share, and that has massively damaged its credibility and popularity. But imo KEFI is significantly 'over-hated', and at some stage that has to correct. It could be as soon as the market sees on the ground progress, or it might not happen until we're producing gold. Very worst case will be when KEFI is dishing out dividends. The business case numbers don't lie, and if KEFI dividends are 1p+, the sp simply has to be minimum of 10p+.

All this talk of 4p, 5p, 6p Valuations..... what are they based on? It certainly isn't mathematics!

They are based on anchoring the sp at todays value, and extrapolating from there based on forecast sentiment and risk dispersion as we get closer to first pour. That is completely flawed though, because todays sp is the result of years of market abuse by Harry, which has killed sentiment and resulted in a sp that reflects scepticism and suspicion. Once Tulu Kapi is up and running, all that suspicion evaporates, and actual asset valuation and even speculation takes over.

Worst case (overstated DFS and gold price collapse) for me is 11p (1moz resource x $3k margin x 20% risk / 13.8b shares x 83% equity)

Reasonable case is 30p (2moz resource, $4k margin, 20% risk)

Blue sky (excluding SA and other discoveries) is 50p (3moz, based on revised cut-offs in DFS and 1moz plus in underground mine, and rising gold price)

Ridicule that all you want, just because it "seems" unlikely. But if you'd rather base your investments on feelings and guesses, knock yourself out!

@Magic-orb "why would this be valued at 10p a full year before they even dig a hole."

Because that hole (even at just 1moz) is worth $5b, $4b after costs. And KEFI own 76% of that..... so $3b..... which is 22p per share.

And the risk associated with the project, is outweighed by the speculative upside, including and extra 0.7moz pretty much guaranteed, another 1moz very likely from underground mine, additional exploration in Ethiopia and our GMCO upside, plus a likelihood of gold price increasing over the next few years.

Brokers are saying 6-7p because they know it's a strong buy, and they get the same credit (with less risk) by saying 6p as they would by saying 26p.

@Magic-orb "Still waiting for your 3p "next week" Stebo that you said in Early Feb. See anybody can predict anything on these boards, so be careful when throwing stones."

If you're going to play that game magic, at least try to pay fair. It was 2p that I called, when the sp was about 1.6p, and we hit that within days.

The thing about these boards is that it's really easy to search back for posts - go back at look at 16:18 on 11th Feb. The post said...

"We're more likely to be 2p by the end of this week, and well over 3p by the time we get to final-final sign-off"

We promptly hit 2p, and we still haven't had final sign-off, but I am still confident that it will be well over 3p when we do.

You told me that you had taken a screen-shot of my 2p prediction, so I'm not sure how you're getting this wrong!lol

*** FWIW I couldn't give a hoot about @Magic-orb, but I do think it's worth highlighting this, just to demonstrate they type of lying character that he is.