Member Info for Stebo

"Posting a headline about troop movements on a border and declaring “I’ve sold out” isn’t analysis — it’s theatre."

100%. Or perhaps more than theatre, it's manipulation.

Nothing has changed in Ethiopia. There is no new news. This is ongoing politics, but for some reason, people feel the need to shine a spotlight on it today..... just after the sp hit 2p, Tulu Kapi was successfully launched, and just before the finance is 100% signed off and you would expect the sp to rocket.

Vested interests are here, and they are trying to manipulate you.

If you are concerned, and want to make a reasonable adjustment in your valuation, I would suggest you start somewhere like here - https://statbase.org/data/eth-global-peace-index/

Use facts, not LSE, when you DYOR

As @gingertom1 says, this dispute has been going on for years, and at any time over that period you could have went looking for some war-mongering media articles and found plenty of sensationalism to spread a little fear.

Ethiopia is not as safe a jurisdiction as say Canada or Australia, but life isn't going to just stop even if there was to be a bit of trouble. Even if a Eritrea -Ethiopia skirmish was to erupt, it will be localised to the Eritrean border, and likely towards the Red Sea (a thousand km from Tulu Kapi!). Even a full-scale outbreak of war would have very little (or zero) impact to Tulu Kapi.

The more important lesson to take from today, is why all of a sudden people are on here trying to spread this fear, over something that has been on-going for years.....

@SpotTheNutters You'll have your work cut out for you with bonkers lol. I just ignore him. He has been saying that KEFI is going nowhere, since when the sp was 0.5p, and presumably he's still here trying to undermine those who are trying to be helpful.

I'm sure he'd a good dig at my posts about dividends, etc., but if he ever actually backs it up with any numbers or calculations, let me know and I'll take him out of the green-box bin for a look.

Was the Allied gold buyout not ages ago? Or has it just been finalised?

@Hubstar The correction is going to be epic, but I hope people have the sense to actually understand the value of their shares and the likely dividends.

When the price starts soring, somebody with a 1p average will think they've hit the jack-pot when the share-price hits 10p and likely sell..... but they're likely giving away £xxxx per year for the next decade and still only getting 20% of what their shares are actually worth!

KEFI will eventually re-rate, and will be paying handsome annual dividends within a number of years...... but how many of the current shareholders, with millions of shares, will still be around to harvest the fruits of their investment!

I remember with GGP, when the sp was 20p+, how people were in awe of a small few shareholders who had x-million shares, yet back when it was 2p the majority of shareholders quantified their holdings in the millions. The difference is that most of them top-sliced or bailed when the sp got to 5p, 7p, 10p, etc.

@MF2017 & @Hubstar Not disagreeing with you, just more adding to the discussion.

I completely get that the numbers become mind-blowing, and that alone suggest a huge variance with todays share price.

One then has to assume that either the market has got this one completely wrong, and therefore a HUGE correction is due.... or that the market values the remaining risks as massive. Personally I actually consider the jurisdictional risk as quite high, in relative terms, but that comes out as more like a 20% discount - ie a 1 in 5 chance of complete and catastrophic failure of the project. The issue is that the maths is suggesting that with 0% risk then the NAV is in the $billions - say 1moz @ $4k/oz profit x 83% = $3.32b NAV = 30.7p per share (completely ignoring all the speculative upside such as higher gold prices or increased resources and SA projects!!). The market is currently discounting this 30.7p by 93.5% to get us back to the current 2p share price.

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia turned up yesterday to launch this mine, yet the market is pricing KEFI as if there is a 93.5% chance that it is a complete failure!! To me that is absolute madness, and the market is completely wrong about KEFI, and the correction is going to be epic.

Therefore, the only reason that the dividend numbers, and forecast de-risked share price numbers, look so crazy high is because they are being viewed the lens of today share-price. It is today's share-price that is completely crazy. Once that corrects and KEFI becomes a two-billion dollar company, with a more reasonable share-price, reflective of its asset value and business-case, then all of a sudden 2p/share dividends don't sound unreasonable.

The reason that the maths 'sounds rampy' is because it is viewed through the broken lens of today' share-price..... and therein lies the commercial opportunity for those savvy enough to see it and not be influenced by flippancy

@MF2017 Your maths checks out, and no matter how many times you run the numbers, the value at TK alone is mind-blowing.

But people simply refuse to believe it. They will run their own conservative calculations..... then sit back and say "na, that can't be right, that would make me a millionaire", and then make an arbitrary 75% discount, just to get back to a number that 'kinda seems more reasonable or realistic'!

The danger is that if you're expecting 0.5p dividends, then you might be tempted to sell some of your shares when they hit say 10p. But if you have calculated a dividend of 2p, then you would have confidence to resist temptation and hold your shares.

By the time that the guy who sold his shares for 10p discovers that there actually is a 2p dividend, he won't be able to afford to by back his shares as they will be three or four times the price he sold them for!!

Being irrationally conservative, is just as silly as being irrationally optimistic. Just do the maths, apply reasonable risks, and trust in the numbers.

@Justaguyinashed

The likely dividend isn't hard to work out, but you just need to plug in your own assumptions.

Forecast profit from TK (ie excluding SA projects, etc) will be over £500m per year.

With all warrants exercised there will be 10.8b shares in circulation.

Take £500m, divide it by 10.8b, and you get 4.63p per share of profit.

Then decide what percentage of that profit are KEFI going to issue as a dividend (bare in mind that this is the main way Harry & Co can extract personal money from KEFI). I would suggest that a 50% ratio would be reasonable, but perhaps less in first year if they want to more aggressively pay down debt.

You then multiply the 4.63p by the payout ratio, so at 50% that would be 2.3p per share.

But.... that is based on $5,000/oz gold price, and just TK profits. Add in another couple of income streams from SA, plus gold being more like $6-7k/oz, and all of a sudden a 3p per share dividend starts to look conservative! The other, very important, thing to note..... if KEFI is paying out 3p per share, then it is very likely that KEFI shares would be valued circa 50p per share (6% yield).

@Hubstar mentioned earlier that he 'is conservative' with his forecasts, so that he doesn't 'look like he's ramping'. Personally I try to be accurate, and if that looks like ramping then I would encourage people to run their own numbers. If your own numbers still look like ramping, then perhaps you need to adjust your expectations! Being intentionally over-conservative, to the point that you might start changing your investment strategy, is a very dangerous move! Be aware of the real possibilities, and also be aware of the real risks, then make informed decisions based on that.

What's your point caller? Do you struggle with the maths when it get's into the billions, because if you do then you're going to have issues with KEFI's cash-flow forecasts too.

@Mibb, do you mean for yourself personally?

It literally makes zero difference imo.

Why is one share at 40p more attractive than 20 shares at 2p?

There are now (well after today's warrants) 10.75b shares in issue, with 56m outstanding warrants.

This screams buying opportunity, before the sub-2p door slams shut!

@Caterham Firstly, congratulations!!

Secondly, the more difficult part is not being tempted to dip into you £11m pot of KEFI shares while the sp is on the way up!!

The profitability, and Net Asset Value of KEFI is mind-blowing, and is only equalled but how astonishingly low the current mcap is lol

This really is the most phenomenal opportunity that I have ever see in stocks and shares.

Does anybody actually think that there is still a chance that Tulu Kapi doesn't happen...... and if it happens then KEFI are going to be bringing in $800m-$1b annually. Even at only 50% payout ratio, that is 3pence per share dividend.

You can get an annual £30k dividend income, for only £20ks worth of shares!!!

That's crazy.

Are people actually selling KEFI shares right now? For 1.9p!!

My goodness some people really just can't be helped lol

Huge face-palm for any sellers today lol

Https://x.com/abiyahmedali/status/2024060975758848398?s=46&t=iWHWCxrh9VlgoT1a16FgAQ

"Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received a warm welcome upon his arrival at Dembi Dolo Airport in the Kelem Welega Zone of the Oromia Region. During his visit, the Prime Minister and his delegation will review the significant development initiatives currently being undertaken by the regional government."

HUGE!!

Nobody has ever made money in shares by "waiting to see how this plays out" lol

Looks like the 1.7p prediction was wrong anyway, as KEFI has already started bouncing again.

And the fact that we're "Still waiting on the financing to complete" and "sentiment has been kicked out of this share" is the main reason why KEFI is such a strong buy. If it wasn't for KEFI being over-hated it would be close to 10p by now. And as soon as TK is signed off and mine construction begins in earnest, then that sentiment returns and the sp corrects.

I'm taking action now, so that I can enjoy those days when they arrive.

@stringer01 you're a hypocrite

last week, at 1.6p, i called 2p within a week and you took the **** out of me and my pridiction.

this idiot says 1.7p is coming and you back him up.

you're doing exactly what you're accusing this board of doing.

you're just a troll