Member Info for Stebo

The market simply can't comprehend KEFI making half a billion annually. It hasn't clicked with them yet.

That's the opportunity that I am taking full advantage of.

Sooner or later they will catch on, until then I'll accumulate what I can :-)

It would be useful to hear everybody elses NPV calculations. Not 'I think it will go down a bit' or 'I think it will go up a bit' or double, or multi-bag, etc.

I want to see cold hard valuations.

Ultimately this is what the institutional investors will do to make their investment case, and ultimately this is what will set the market price. The fact that the sp was 1p before finance was signed off, or Harry took a decade to develop TK, etc, etc. won't matter a jot then.

I mentioned this morning about doing your own NPV calculations.

I would love to hear some people's results.

I also suggested using AI for a quick ball-park one. Here is what Chat GTP thinks...

("Help me calculate the NPV, and corresponding share price for a gold-mining company using the following information in regard to their Flagship asset:

Equity: This company is the managing partner and holds 80% equity in their flagship project

Flagship Project Gold Reserves: currently 1moz reserves, with 1.72moz resources confirmed. Expected to grow to 3moz+

Production: Output is due to start at 160koz per year, increasing to 200koz per year

Gold Price: Assume a gold price of the current gold spot price (approx $3750/oz)

AISC: Estimated to be between $1,000/oz to $1,100/oz (depending on gold prices and Royalties due)

Project stage: Mine construction about to launch, with expected first production in 24 months

Jurisdiction: Western Ethiopia

Other Assets: They also have and additional 16 exploration licenses, and are partners in two other advanced gold mining projects, expected to be developed in next 24-36 months. This has been valued at $70m-$100m by analysists

Shares in issue: There are 9431369780 share in issue, with a further 162370259 outstanding warrants (exercisable at 0.7p per share)

Give the NPV as both $ and £, and then provide the share price that this NPV mcap would work out at in pence.")

"...... So the valuation outcome is:

NPV (equity, USD): ~ $2,302 million

NPV (equity, GBP): ~ £1,726.5 million

Implied share price: ~ 18 pence per share

If you prefer ignoring dilution by warrants (or treat separately), it might be ~19–20 pence per share."

Unfiltered to read what this "well, well, well" post was about.

Seems another one of our non-holders is 'still' banging on, and seemingly still obsessed about taking a swing for me (despite me having had him filtered for most of this year :-D ).

I see that you still haven't got over your inability to understand that a 'post-even-forecast' requires that event to have happened before you can state whether the forecast was correct or not.

KEFI's sp will be 5p+ after sign-off. Depending on volatility it could get there very quickly, or it might take some time to settle, but the market value of de-risked KEFI shares is circa 10p-15p. I have absolutely zero doubt that the sp will very quickly pass 5p after sign-off.

Perhaps you should wait until after sign-off has happened before you start pontificating about how shameful it is to make predictions. I wonder do you feel any shame for the PIs that your pessimism has caused to sell, causing them to miss out on 100% returns in the last few months? Do you feel any shame, or embarrassment that the sp is already over 1p, which you claimed would be lucky to happen on sign off? Do you feel any shame or embarrassment that you said that as soon as the sp hit 1p you were gone, yet you're still here trying to pour cold water on KEFI?

Bonkers, you are here with an agenda, and it is not one that it in the interest of KEFI shareholders or potential PIs.

You're going back into the green bin, but it was nice to have that little reminder of why so many people have you filtered.

Apologies to anybody who has wasted their time reading this. I will be filtering Bonkers again and not responding.

I came on here expecting to see fever-pitch today.

It seems that an attitude of pessimism has set in lol

For some reason, because we've got to the 26th Sep, there seems to be an presumption that there will be a delay. Personally I'm not sure where that comes from. We're still in Sep, and we were told that sign-off would be in Sep.

Personally I was expecting it to come at the end of last week (or start of this week), which obviously didn't happen, but that doesn't make it any less likely that the RNS doesn't drop today or this evening.

All the information that we have to go on is that KEFI are targeting September for sign-off. As we get closer to the end of this month, then the likelihood of the RNS landing get's greater and greater.

In regard to what the rerate on sign-off might be, I would really encourage everybody to take a few minutes to do the sums themselves. Or perhaps even to use AI to crunch the numbers. I would suggest the following prompt:

"Help me calculate the NPV, and corresponding share price for a gold-mining company using the following information in regard to their Flagship asset:

Equity: This company is the managing partner and holds 80% equity in their flagship project

Flagship Project Gold Reserves: currently 1moz reserves, with 1.72moz resources confirmed. Expected to grow to 3moz+

Production: Output is due to start at 160koz per year, increasing to 200koz per year

Gold Price: Assume a gold price of the current gold spot price (approx $3750/oz)

AISC: Estimated to be between $1,000/oz to $1,100/oz (depending on gold prices and Royalties due)

Project stage: Mine construction about to launch, with expected first production in 24 months

Jurisdiction: Western Ethiopia

Other Assets: They also have and additional 16 exploration licenses, and are partners in two other advanced gold mining projects, expected to be developed in next 24-36 months. This has been valued at $70m-$100m by analysists

Shares in issue: There are 9431369780 share in issue, with a further 162370259 outstanding warrants (exercisable at 0.7p per share)

Give the NPV as both $ and £, and then provide the share price that this NPV mcap would work out at in pence."

A lot of new KEFI shareholders aren't used to 1p+ lol. They get nose-bleeds lol

Let it churn, and when we open at 5p after sign-off, let them buy back in at that stage to enjoy the low-risk journey to production and dividends

Magic ...... shares changing hands from traders and bed-wetters into LTH and those looking for 10p and dividends is a great thing.

While I feel bad for anybody who gets spooked and folds, selfishly it means that I am more likely to see true value correction sooner, so it's a positive for me.

" "I estimate at gold production, we'll be at £1bn marketcap"

Massive shout from a current 100MCap. Not saying you are wrong, but what time frame? 2027?"

Nearly every time I read about somebody putting a ceiling on the mcap, it starts with "but look where we currently are"

When will PIs realise that the current sp is completely irrelevant to where we're going!

You clearly don't understand what a Pump and Dump is, or you don't understand what is happening with KEFI.

Anybody else notice that certain posters are incredibly 'conspicuous by their absence' today?

Now... the question (and the lesson to be learned) is....

- Are they missing because they have been proved wrong

- Is the price rising because they are not here spreading their panic

or....

- Perhaps they are not here because they didn't really have your best interests at heart after all. They have now completed their large buy (purchasing the shares that they convinced PIs to sell) and this is what is pushing up the sp. They'll now have flipped to being uber-positive, and roll out another fleet of usernames until they sell. Then those same old green-boxes will reappear to try and do it all over again.

You'll resist buying now, and then cave in with FOMO when the sp is at 1.5p, 1.7p, etc lol

May as well just accept it and by now :-b

We haven't even gotten to the afternoon yet - KEFI sp always prefers from about 2pm onwards :-)

Everything in the past has been to get us to this envious position.

1p is still an absolute bargain price, considering the asset that KEFI is about to launch, and everything in the rear-view mirror will soon be forgotten about when institutions and fund start to get involved. They look forward to the dividends and what the sp will be like when we're pumping out $400m pa profit, not reminisce about the battle scars of sub-1p placements lol

5p on sign-off, quickly rising to 7p once the big players start to pile in.

UPshunt. Will be happy to see you gone off this board (lets see!), but it's just a bit sad that you no doubt have ran the sums and know that the value is there, but your past experiences are causing you to let emotion take the steering-wheel instead of logic.

6 years ago the 2p was about 1.5p. If you'd had patience, and took advantage of averaging down, you'd be in plenty of profit by now.

I've been in KEFI about 6 years and I'm well up

Won't be long until somebody mentions GDXJ !

" 10p+ by 2027"

Easily twice that. Would expect to see 10p by Christmas this year.

Once de-risked, and it becomes obvious that TK is happening, the sp will start to reflect that.

"I am not the only one selling today."

UPshunt, if you think anybody believes that you hold KEFI shares, or that you're selling them just before transformational de-risking news lands, then you're delusional.

It's as clear as day that you want to buy into KEFI once finance is sorted and TK de-risked, and you want to get as good a price as you can at that stage.

That's fair enough, but to try and spread fear and spook PIs out of profits, just for your own gain - that's scumbag behaviour imo

Upshunt "But serious LTs will be selling before Harry completes his last fundraiser *for awld times sake*"

Sour grapes is never a good look. KEFI Q&A just confirmed no need for a rise for finance, and that KEFI will be cash rich for the foreseeable.

Harry has done placements to get us to this point where we now are. Never just for a laugh or for auld times sake.

Your failure to understand and appreciate this, and your chip on your shoulder, has cost you dearly today and the last few weeks.

You can still mitigate that by buying in now, but I know you won't. Instead you'll just try to spread your bitterness on here.

MF2017

Following assumptions:

1.7moz gold (absolute minimum - more likely to be 3moz +++)

$3,700/oz PoG (minimum, gold is rising and more likely to average closer to $5k over life to the mine)

$1,000 AISC

74p = $1 (I think this will move more in our favour too)

1.7moz x ($3,700 - $1,000) = $4,590,000,000

80% equity = $3,672,000,000

in £ = £2,717,280,000

Allowing 15% discount for jurisdictional risk = £2,309,688,000

Add on £30m for SA assets (which could be worth 10 times that in two years!) = £2,339,688,000

Divide that by 9,360,000,000 shares in issue = 25p per share

Allowing a further discount of 20% for 'time' and a disparity between NPV and mcap = 20p per share

As I hope you can appreciate, this is all very conservative (to the point of being pessimistic).

If you assume 3moz and $4,000/oz PoG, that jumps to 40p per share, which is far more likely imo

Is this mornings rise off the back of the Q&A update.

Seems like the penny has finally dropped that there is not going to be a placement on sign-off, and also that KEFI is due a huge credit for all past spending.

I don't want to say that I've been banging on about this to anybody who would listen for ages...... but.....

I suppose it's easier to spook people by fearmongering about placements, than it is to use common sense to reassure people! Nice to see this in writing from KEFI though, to put the issues to bed once and for all!