Member Info for Stebo

You must be on a different telegram group to me. Most of the telegram group were showing surprise that the sp had risen past 0.8p, and there was an air of cautious optimism.

Last week was a flury of excitement, based on a genuine RNS, followed by a sell-off from placings, and a further sell-off by traders, who seen their trade turning against them.

Hopefully that drama has now passed and this week the sp can get back to reflecting the intrinsically improved fundamental value of KEFI since this time last week.

I don't mean clueless as derogatory btw, but they're trading based on sp movement, as opposed to researching the fundamentals and actually thinking about the potential vs the risks. Clueless about KEFI as a company.

My brother sold a pile of KEFI at 0.75p and he's happy with that, because he's making those small wins across loads of companies. My point is that the people who are selling are those who bought in during a dip, they've made their 10%/15%/20% and are jumping out to go do the same somewhere else.

People who aren't selling, and are desperately trying to buy more (like me), are those who actually know that post-finance-closure this will be 3p-4p, which is now only a case of when the various parties can get a date in their diary to meet and sign.

Clueless traders are driving the sp at the minute. I'm just taking advantage of the profit-taking dips to load up with the proceeds of other shares I'm currently trying to liquidate.

1p will many be a psychological speed-bump, but the current fundamentals and risk-reward profile makes this worth more than that all day long.

I predict a re-rate to 1p-ish before Monday, then it is only a matter of time until major re-rate. Until today I would have said 2p, but today has shown just how many eyes are on KEFI - could be 3p-4p once finance is rubber-stamped (only a formality at this stage!)

KingofClangers, I don't have an agenda one way or another, if anything I would like a lower entry price, but I don't really believe that ramping / deramping has any effect - there's always both going on and whatever way the sp goes gets attributed to whatever side!!

I only have a small holding to help me keep an eye on it, but I do think that this will be a multi-multi-bagger at some stage soon. I also have a few other irons in other fires so can't afford to jump into EUA with two feet until I'm sure we have lift off. If I've to buy in an 8p-9p I will be happy to miss out on grabbing the very bottom for the certainty of catching the wave. AMC's news though is a massive shift in sentiment for me and it feels like things are about to get very real for EUA.

I'm still holding fire for now, but I've lined up a load of notifications for EUA and will be keeping a very close eye on it this week

This afternoon will be exciting, to see if there is another run up before closing, or if this settles at a +5%-7% for the day

If you've been a LTH and you always hoped that this would head to 40p plus, then when you see this starting to happen and the sp rocketing up, you'll jump on board, even if you know you've missed out on the lion's share.

There are disillusioned people who are sitting on big losses and will have seen this spike as an exit opportunity to cut loses. In reality this is a significant upturn in fundamentals

More likely to be a few more LTHs ground into submission, selling off their shared for a loss and significantly under value. They'll pat themselves on the back if this falls back to 3.75p, but be crying over what could have been in a few weeks when this is 10p+++.

If they're lucky they'll get back on board before 25p+

What will today's closing price be? 5p? 5.5p? 6p? 4p?

I've been watching from the side-lines for a while and dithering between whether this or KEFI will come good first. Feel like it's time to choose a horse.

If you were able to buy EUA right now ...... would you!!?

Just to follow up on the below - https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6926485413259837440/?midToken=AQERz7smiSztEA&midSig=0isH04xGNl1Gg1&trk=eml-email_network_conversations_01-hero-1-check_update_cta&trkEmail=eml-email_network_conversations_01-hero-1-check_update_cta-null-9x36dq%7El2qiojvc%7Ejd-null-neptune%2Ffeed%2Eupdate

Whitemountain, Lagan Asphalt and Lagan materials all now rebranded into Breedon Ireland. Will be interesting to see if the share-price reacts

There was a full rebrand when Breedon took them over and all the plant (and head office signage) that was previously marron / white / gold was painted the Breedon colours, but it was still Whitemountain written down the side.

Whitemountain did do full on civil engineering works right across the UK (eg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hToxwtgcxqk) but it does seem that Breedon always kept it under the radar and there's very little mention about it. Seem that they have now finally pulled the plug on it completely.

Definitely seems to have been a tough decision taken for the betterment of Breedon as a whole. Keeps the business simple and easy to understand without too many off-shoots away from the core business plan. My pal was definitly under the illusion that the decision was made due to "investability", and came following feedback. He mentioned to me about Civil Engineering Contracting being considered so high-risk that it was almost toxic to US investors.

Culling that department is possibly to pave the way for some major investment - will be interesting to see what comes down the tracks in the next couple of months, but I'm taking it as a buy-signal and loading up now when they're cheap!

Was chatting to my pal again last night. Whitemountain are shutting down their civil engineering side of the company to focus more on the higher profit and lower risk activities. Also dropping the Whitemountain name and starting to trade as Breedon, which to me suggests a focus more so on the materials side of the business.

My pal is led to believe that it’s following feedback from large potential investors in USA who see civil engineering contracting as high-risk. That would likely tie up with the new presence in USA, and potentially signal either a buy-out from a large American company, or maybe Breedon starting to look at acquisitions in USA and moving into a new territory. All just speculation though.

Londoner7, would need to check with my contact what all I can say, but the upshot of his comments were "20 or so lads being let go for the sake of making Breedon more investible and adding a few pence to the share price".

I live local to Whitemountain's head-office and I drove past it today and seen that they are changing the signs from "Whitemountain" to "Breedon", so there's definitely changes afoot.

Great RNS today.

I'm surprised however that the recent structural changes in the Whitemountain part of the business haven't been RNS'd. That should add a few pence to the share price, and shows Rob Wood has the stomach to make the tough decisions for the sake of reducing risk exposure (and no doubt supporting the share-price).

Wouldn't be surprised to see this at 16p within the next week regardless of the headlines, then when sanity returns and things calm down this will quickly be back at 25p-30p. That 375% return in a number of weeks, completely regardless of the buy-out potential.

I'll take that!

Mate, a blind man on a galloping horse can see this has bottomed out due to panic over-reaction.

It's 8p per share!

I'm loading up now, then happy to sit back and wait, whether it be 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years, for a five-bagger pay-day.

At this price where else would you get such a risk : return profile.

Everyonesawinner - I'm not sure that you understand what an MRE2 is.

It's a collation of the asseys received to date, pulled together in an attempt to best estimate the ore-body. It is still only going to be another fraction of a fraction, and only cover the volumes with dense enough drill data. GGP would be more than capable to pull together their own estimate, and I'm sure they have (however it may not necessarily be JORC compliant).

The 5% FMV is a commercial agreement to purchase a stake in the Havieron JV. Although having a MRE2 would make fag-packet calculations easier, both companies will be going back to "first-principles" to carry out their valuation. Their valuations will include area's of the ore body not considered by MRE2, likely also even making a small allowance for parts of the tenement which haven't even been drilled yet.

Having MRE2 would have been great to advertise to the wider market what we all already know, in terms of the resource size, and may have even been a useful document for GGP to lean on when securing finance, but it's not overly material to the FMV calculation. I believe that it would have bolstered the sp in the short term, before FMV blows the doors off, but in the absence of that we will just have to keep waiting for the FMV re-rate.

Silverhorse, I presume English isn't your first language, but I presume your question is in regard to how the sp should react to the 5% FMV valuation?

Theoretically the mcap sp should re-rate to just a bit more than 6 x the 5% valuation

The below table is a useful quick cheat-sheet of how the FMV should relate to sp:

FMV in US$m > SP
$90m > 9.5p
$135m > 14.25p
$180m > 19p
$225m > 23.75p
$228m > 24p (Berenberg)
$270m > 28.5p
$280m > 29.6p (Canaccord Genuity)
$315m > 33.25p
$360m > 38p
$500m > 55p

(originally posted by somebody else btw so credit for taking the initiative to set it out like this goes to them)

Why don't you check the 15 or so set's of asseys released prior to that through 2019/20. Did those results have no impact on the sp?? You are looking at a small snapshot and presenting coincidental occurrences as "fact"

I don't care about the day-to-dat sp, but I do know that there is only so long that the sp can be manipulated and eventually this will change to reflect true-value. In the meantime I am more interested in how that true-value increases - this is what dictates where the sp will end up.

In the meantime the can do whatever it wants (the lower for longer the better imo while I'm still loading up), and I'm not going to say it is a "fact" that good result will be reflected in the sp tomorrow. What I can say though is that it's a "fact" that GGP will become more valuable if we continue to has such positive drill results.

Also, for what it's worth, as I understand it there's a good chance that there won't be any new drill results reported tonight anyway, so your whole point is potentially nonsense FUD.