Member Info for Stebo

Why do you say that it seems to be worth our current mcap?

Do your own NPV calculation. It's not difficult and all the info is in the RNSs in black and white. One think that a lot of NPV calcs currently miss though is the impact of the POG. Not only does this increase reserve value, but it also has a big impact on the Cut-Off grade. Typically there will be small areas of very high grade, and larger areas of lower grade. The increase in POG suddenly makes it viable to mine the larger areas of low-grade. So for every percentage increase in the POG there is an exponential increase in the Resource Estimate.

When I ran my NPV calc, giving massively generous allowance for time, jurisdiction, POG volitility, etc. I was getting a NPV circa 14p. The junior miner market is currently very undervalued, with no sign of that changing, so even though I see the NPV as 14p, I expect the SP to be circa 8p-10p.

If the sp went over 7p I would sell (as it would no longer be significantly under-value), but while it's less than 5p it's still a great buy IMO.

* those numbers obviously based on de-risked finance (which imo we more or less now are) and prices increasing as we move closer to production and the time factor decreases.

This is the ERNs that flow directly into 100% KEFI owned subsidiary KEFI Ethiopia. KEFI Ethiopia is then an 80% stakeholder in TKGM, which is the level that the banks, government, etc are funding / investing in.

So although KEFI PLC can't touch the TKGM funds, the KEFI Ethiopia funds can be moved upstream and KEFI costs downstream. The more I look at this, and the timeframes, the less convinced I am that there is going to be a placing any time soon.

The more I look at the latest RNS and the latest presentation, the more content I am with KEFI's position. Everything is falling into place and the finances are 'more or less' a done deal imo.

KEFI has $100m invested into KEFI Ethiopia / TKGM

The intellectual property is the resulting surveys, charts, process plans, etc, etc, etc. which have been compiled by KEFI PLC.

My presumption is that KEFI Ethiopia IPO will raise funds, which will be used to buy the rights to this IP from KEFI PLC (for $xxxm). This IP, along with ongoing management, will then be KEFI Ethiopia's contribution to the TKGM syndicate.

KEFI PLC will have received $xxxm from this transaction which it will use in SA. Depending on how much $xxxm transpires to be, this could involve increasing their stake in the SA projects, as mentioned in latest investor presentation:

KEFI Finance Plan Finalised

• $320M Project Finance Package has been refined to maximise ROI for KEFI and its Government partners

• A consequence is to now seek to maximise KEFI beneficial ownership of assets:

• Target c.80% of TKGM, with NPV to KEFI GBP10.5 pence/share (at gold price $2,600/oz) • Strategic review of minority holding in GMCO

The ESX will definitely bring significant attention to KEFI, at a time when all the pieces of the puzzle seem to be falling perfectly into place.

Talk of 1p/2p/3p is all just looking at KEFI through the lens of todays mental sp. The current value of our assets (even before de-risking) would easily be £100m if we sold. Also the finance package deal will also be worth £200m. Plus TK becoming a mine makes the SA assets viable, which will add a bit of value to sp.

For me, 3p is an absolute floor for a re-rate, 4p is pessimistic, and I'm fully expecting 5p moving towards 6p as the major works start to progress.

By the start of mining I would conservatively expect to be hitting £1b mcap (circa 15p)

I would imagine that a sale of TK is much more likely that a sale of KEFI. That could be on the cards and would set KEFI up nicely to focus on SA.

I'd really love to see TK go ahead though and become a bona fide miner.

This is a common tactic. Big buy order to fill (often at a set price), often the easiest way is to drop the sp to induce a panic sell off from dumb-money.

It's good to have the info to check out crazytower's character, but I imagine that most here don't really cares that much about amur and are more interested in the figures he has posted about KEFI.

Crazytower's valuation of KEFI all checks out imo. In fact I would say it is pretty conservative due to the increase POG meaning that the TK cut-off grade will change resulting in an increased RE.

Maybe you have a grudge, having been misled into getting your fingers burnt by crazytower, or maybe crazytower is a ramper that we need to keep an eye on..... but an alternative valuation of KEFI showing where he has gotten it wrong would be a lot more useful on this forum.

"Everyone is waiting until it's 100%"..... I think you're right..... brace yourself for the mother of all re-rates. I'm fully expecting 1,000% once everybody starts scrambling for de-risked shares.

Regarding TW.... even a broken clock is right twice a day..... I just need TW to be right once and I will be very very happy.

A de-risked KEFI for 1.5p ....... I'd sell my kidneys to get a bit of that action!

I don't think people can comprehend where this sp is going to go the instant that KEFI is de-risked. Currently it has next zero value other than HAA's promises, and the mcap reflects that. With the $320m finance in place, KEFI is suddenly a £2b company. As a bare minimum the mcap will be $320m (3p).

Harry's bonus is safe, so long as he get's the deal done.

If you take the value of the MRE (adjusted for latest POG), less the AISC, the NAV works out at over 40p per share. But it's only reasonable to add in a factor of risk for time, jurisdiction, HAA's antics to date, etc., however that number is a lot more subject to opinions and risk tolerance, so it's difficult to calculate exactly where the sp should land.

Logically a reasonably risk adverse calculation would be about 10P, but sentiment drive sp, not logic. Therefore this could go to only 3p and slowly tick up to 10p+ as we get closer to production (because 3p would "feel" high compared to today sp), or it could rocket past 10p (as the FOMO and the "to the moon" crowd could take notice, run a few calcs and realise that even 10p is cheap).

My plan is to keep buying below 3p (or maybe 5p if it's 'completely' de-risked), and if it goes above 8p start averaging back out.

Definitely a hidden agenda and vested interest, and it's not saving faceless usernames on LSE from making a poor investment. MC has absolutely devoted himself to spreading fear, and misinformation about KEFI, especially recently.

He must be expecting a huge payday for his efforts.

Really genuine question MC.... what is your agenda? Is it spite at making a wrong call in the past? Or is it that you know that KEFI is a multi billion pound company, and you're doing everything you can to drive the sp down during this pre-de-risked phase?

I wonder if you know more than you let on? I feel like the more desperate your de-ramping attempts become the closer we must be to attestation of the finance contracts.

@ Shineymetal

50p is a long-term prediction, which I'm sure would be life-changing for all current holders. In reality though, at that stage it will be a completely different proposition and suitable for a completely different investment strategy.

Even though I see 50p as a likely possibility by 2028, I'd be too risk adverse to resist the temptation to sell tranches at various stages and diversify.

I like the averaging approach, and intend to continue to average into KEFI at various stages when the sp is under-value, and then eventually average back out of it. My approach is to buy shares when they are under-valued, and sell then when they are close to fair value. If KEFI becomes de-risked (due to finances in place), then the value of those shares jumps to at least 5p+. If they are still selling for less than 2p (likely due to a LTH sell-off), then I'll take advantage of that.

I feel that a lot of current holders will sell as soon as KEFI re-rates. The way I see it, that doesn't necessarily make sense. Yes, the share price will rocket, but so will the value of what you own. Selling shares with a value of 5p, for a price of 2p, is bad business. Just because you managed to buy them for 0.7p, doesn't change that fact that it's still bad business. I'll happily take advantage of that psychological conditioning.

I mean a mcap circa £3.5b with circa 7b shares in issue = 50p per share.

Dividends are too complex to calculate at this stage in my opinion - too many assumptions making the estimate worthless.

Finance at TK is the key that unlocks the treasure chest.

My main point though is that people don't comprehend just how cheap KEFI is right now, which is absolutely due to legitimate fear of further placings and more delays and BS. Eventually though, finance will be in place and this will come good. When that happens everyone will look back and wish that they'd been filling their boots when the sp was less than a penny.

Here's to hoping that we're all throwing the mother of all parties this time next week!

That's a fair point. What I meant was that $3,000/oz was the rate I was using in my calculations. Everything else, such as geographic discount, assumed AISC, etc were equally conservative.

As well as gold being significantly higher in 2028, I would also expect that KEFI's exploration would have found additional resources close to TK, where they've the rights to over 1,000sqkm..... and we all know where the best place to find gold is...

I feel like every "post-rerate prediction" I read is just a notion largely anchored buy the current sp, and viewed through that lens.

I would love to see somebody actually posting some NAV calculations, because any time I've worked it out it has blown my mind. I don't think people actually comprehend just how insanely low the current mcap is, and just how been a deal owning 80% of TK will be (before even considering SA!).

With even the most conservative of assumptions, and massive discounts for time, geographic and political factors, KEFI's NAV after finance sign-off has to be at least £800m - £1b. I see no reason, other than sentiment, why the sp (once TK starts producing wouldn't) be in the 10p - 15p range. I appreciate that seems crazy, based on the current sp, but the reality is that it's the current sp that's crazy (thanks to Harry's antics and continual placements).

That's all based on (very conservative) logic. Unfortunately it isn't mathematics and accounting that determine the sp, and I think that prevailing attitudes would see people selling way below intrinsic value due to believing that a 300%-400% rise from the current mcap to be "a high price".

My long-term predictions for 2028 are gold $3,000/oz, KEFI with three producing mines, a significant resource increase at TK, and a mcap of circa £3.5b, good annual dividends and 50p per share. Feel free to call me crazy, but my calculator doesn't lie!

I also like how the increase in PoG increases the economic cut-off grade, so out MRE grows as the PoG increases.

Fantastic RNS. My risk factor against KEFI just dropped by about 75%. This is happening. KEFI is going mining in Ethiopia, and when that happens all the other assets fall into play too. KEFI will be a billion pound company within 24 months, and the sp will never be as low again as it is today.

Regarding all the talk of placings, I'm more than happy to buy at less than a penny, and then watch as a placing drops the sp from 1.5p to 1.3p, because that seems to be the only boogey man left, and once that's 'out of the way' the sp will quickly push on from there and be back above 1.5p in the blink of an eye.

The market doesn't trust Harry, and is being fooled by the glass half empty crowd. Take the emotion out of it and today is one of those rare occasions where a significantly undervalues proposition is sitting for us on a silver platter.