Member Info for Stebo

UPshunt, you keep posting links to that news article, despite knowing that KEFI have released a statement completely rejecting it and criticising the reporters failure to adhere to even the most basic journalistic standards.

One would almost think that you were intentionally trying to spread what you know to be misinformation? That's poor form.

"Why aren't the banks lending?"

You must not read RNS. The banks are lending, with both of then having already approved the deal (one currently refreshing their approval). TDB approved the loan in February, and AFC just last month. The reason the banks are lending YET is that AFC is awaiting ratification (TDB already has this), which is expected imminently (within Q4). This has already been approved and is just awaiting ratification.

If you want to join the tinfoil hat club, sell your shares now and join the merry band of naysayers who like to spend their days polluting a message board for a company they 'have no vested interest in ;-)'.

If you live in the realms of reality, according to KEFI RNS and HAA interviews, there is likely to be a MAJOR rerate in the KEFI sp within days. Ratification is expected "without delay" which will pave the way for sign off for a $240m loan, which enables a $320m finance package, which enables a multi-billion dollar mine........ all while KEFI sits with an mcap of £35m!!!!!

It is entirely possible that an RNS could drop this evening to confirm finance in place, which would see today's 0.5p share price open at 5p tomorrow morning!

More like "negativity play" rather than nativity play!

Far be it for me to defend HAA, but since 2018 there have been various delays outside of KEFI's control. With the civil war, plus covid, in reality is has only really been the last two years that KEFI have been afforded and opportunity to make some real progress at Tulu Kapi.

I appreciate that KEFI has always promised "jam tomorrow", and from a distance it is easy to trope out a narrative about "KEFI always promises that finance is near, then does a raise". When you get into the detail of it, there has been significant progress on the finance deal, which any reasonably person can understand takes time to sort.

Just because an investor in 2019 didn't foresee a global pandemic and civil war, or an investor in 2022 had unrealistic expectations, doesn't mean that KEFI is some kind of scam!

What I can't understand about all the pessimistic posters on this board, is why are they all here? I appreciate them bringing a contrary view to the board, but the cynic in me can't help but wonder why they are so interested in spreading fear and negativity? Is it because they have a vested interested in dragging down the sp as far as possible prior to finance being sorted?

"All these kind of details show that KEFI do have something to hide."

I think you're getting a bit carried away here!

Everything you are describing is highly illegal. The details that KEFI disclose are very typical. If KEFI was 'open-book' they would be exposing themselves to market manipulation and competitive disadvantage.

Going by Harrys latest interview I think that the SA sale is done and dusted. The RNS put SA in the shop window with a "we'll consider what to do in the next 6 months", but on that proactive interview a few days later Harry was very clear that it's definitely being sold, and probably already a done deal....

"We expect to have significant cash from the Saudi exit". That doesn't sound to me like there is any question over whether SA is being sold, and to be that confident suggests to me that it is a done deal. The rest of the discussion about removing capital from SA and concentrating on Ethiopia was equally as 'matter of fact'.

I imagine that in reality this was a conversation that we had at the same time as the "Strategic Review of GMCO JV" meeting. I fully expect that a deal with ARTAR was done there and then, with a "too good to say no" offer put on the table by ARTAR.

I imagine that there will have been a conversation about what was happening over the debt and whether KEFI was going to raise to pay their contribution to GMCO. I expect that ARTAR will have offered to buy the full 25% for circa $100m to get KEFI out of the picture. This will have been carved up as a foregoing of the $10m owed (for the 10%), and then the remaining $90m for the additional 15%.

KEFI could have easily sold their 10% for far more than $10m, and it would have made sense to do a raise to pay the $10m debt, then sell the 10% for $50m The only way that it makes sense to forego the 10% is if it was part of a bigger deal. I expect the price for the remaining 15% to be way over market value, but in reality be the price for he 15%, plus the remaining market value (after the $10m debt write-off).

I am expecting $80-$100m for the remaining 15%, and expect that it will be announced as soon as the solicitors are done with the paperwork. It's a done deal.

"We have to remember Kefi has never earned any money in the five years "

With the SA assets up for sale, KEFI's first business generated income is hopefully just round the corner. A likely pay-day worth twice our current mcap!!

"Even if it goes into the green it will be short lived. My reasoning: financing deal is unlikely before Christmas. On the 2nd of January there's another 800 million or so shares hitting the market."

I get why you're saying this, but out of the 800m shares hitting the market 473m are going to Safaya, who you would expect to be a long-term institutional investor, and 145m are going to directors, etc, who you wouldn't expect to be cashing in any time soon. 315m are going out via the brokers, but we've been told that these are being bought up by European and Middle Eastern investors, who you would also expect to be LTH.

The weakest hands from the raise are likely to be PrimaryBid PIs, but realistically I expect that any purchases will have been with at least 'post-finance' in mind.

Personally I think that we've bottomed out, and I have been buying again.

a) sentiment recovery by the end of this week, once everybody gets over being ****ed off by harry's raise and starts to think rationally that this is actually a great place to average down or invest at - 0.6p.

b) first signs of firm progress on definitive documentation (either afc ratification or tdb re-confirmation of approval, etc. - i expect at least something this side of christmas) - 0.9p

c) signing of definitive detailed documentation (this is when kefi is no longer a speculative play, hugely de-risked and npv calculations kick in) - initially 3p, period of early investor exit, eventually settling above 4p

d) listing on esx, i think the esx will value kme much higher than aim values kefi, but i'm not sure that will drive the aim price higher. sp increase will be due to further confidence that the project is moving in the right direction - 5p

e) sale of sa projects, sold for £60m, adding 0.5p to share price - 5.5p

f) commissioning of mine. will depend on pog at the time, but people will be looking to potential dividends circa 0.5p. based on a generous 5% yeild, that dividend would command share-price of circa 10p, but it will be a gradual rise towards that by year 2 of production, therefore on commissioning - 7p

g) commencement of production - 8p

h) by dec 2028 - 10p

Regarding sale of GMCO, is it not likely that ARTAR will just buy out the remaining 15% at market value. So the six months (five now) are really to see if KEFI and ARTAR can agree on a fair price, and if not then for KEFI to go out to the market. ARTAR might just put this all to bed very quickly with a good offer.

Also, I don't think our business with Saudis is all done. From what I understand there has been a lot of Saudi / middle eastern interest historically in the Konso license that we have just been awarded. Potentially we have Saudi investors / partners sitting in the wings, waiting to do business should the exploration prove fruitful.

That's a scandalous accusation to make!

You don't think there's a chance that he just got it wrong on this one (just like the rest of us)?

Magnacarta, You must have crystalised a huge loss to be this angry that you would dedicate so much of your life to bashing KEFI. I feel bad for you.

Yes, it all comes down to getting finance across the line, and until then it's nothing but a speculative play.

It's still good to have some analysis of what the prize is here when (if) the finance deal gets sorted.

If Harry meets his Q4 (or so!) time-frame, a x10 in a couple of weeks would be a nice return, and well worth the risk imo

Https://www.***********.com/research/clearing-the-decks/34209/

Latest update out. Interestingly valuing the new license at 1.7p.

Based on current PoG they're at 5.25p now, rising to 8.5p by FY28, plus suggesting dividends of 0.5p per share between FY28-34.

This is assuming 15% interest in SA, so (assuming SA is sold) short-term there would be an additional 1p+ for the sale of those assets imo

Yep. People who were paid in shares still have their mortgage to pay and families to feed. They will need to liquidate to get their wages, so there will be some short-term selling, but it won't take long to clear.

Magnacarta keeps banging on about the dry season and rainy season. Just FYI, the rainy season is June to Sep.

"Bank loan will come with covenants to raise new Equity which will be a disaster for the share price"

I don't think so. KEFI's contribution is the discovery and our millions that have already been poured into the TK project. Also the matter of KEFI equity has already been addressed - new equity is at subsidiary level by way of ERNs.

Baring some black-swan event, this is definitely now a case of 'When, not if'.

I think some people may be getting over excited about this week (and the event later this week), but even if nothing comes of this week I don't expect any pull-back. After this week is out there's only another ten trading days left of Q4. As each day passes, it gets more an more likely that the RNS is going to drop soon.

I'm 50:50 that there will be news this week, if not then 60:40 that there will be news the following week, and if not then 95:5 by the week after that.

Lol,

You guys sit there spectating and spreading nonsense. The rest of us will head to that end of Q4 party.

Definitive documentation within next three weeks. Major works commencing early next year. Can't wait to look back on this one and reminisce about these past couple of difficult years and how they were finally all worth it, laughing at how the sp was once less than 1p!

Well in that case you're just spreading misinformation, very poor form to try and cost other's money.