Member Info for Stebo

"A mimimum of months."....... I presume that was supposed to have a question mark after it?

FYI it just takes a matter of minutes in the House of People's Representatives, and then added to the government gazette.

All the donkey work is already done by the National Ethiopian Bank. Approval is already done by the Ministry for Finance. Ratification by EG is a rubber stamp in parliament, takes minutes and could happen anytime.

Eh, that's not how pump and dumps work.

Firstly where's the pumping?

Secondly the idea is that the sp is pumped, and then dumped... not dumped while trying to pump.

Thirdly, with the spread that KEFI has you would make very little money trying to buy, pump and then dump.

What you are actually seeing is a classic de-risking of finance. The market is starting to agree that the finance is a done deal, a 10x re-rate is coming, and those who are comfortable with the uncertainty and risk are trying to get in before the stampede.

The upside is massive. I personally would add on circa 2p for sale of SA assets, TK will only get bigger and bigger, and personally I believe that gold will be pushing $3,500/oz by the time we're pouring it.

KEFI will be the next GGP imo, potentially going from 2p to 38p over the next couple of years.

But lets just get the finance across the line first!!

Spoiler alert ...... it will be significantly more than 7.3p :-)

Try this

"I want to do a NPV calculation of KEFI. Their main project is Tulu Kapi gold mine. They are 80% stakeholders. There are 6.3b shares in issue. Base the calculations on there being a resource estimate of 2Moz, gold price of $2,600/oz, AISC of $900/oz, 7 year mine life, due to commence in 2027. The mine in in Ethiopia so allow a discount for a moderate risk jurisdiction. Give the answer as a share price in GBP."

7 year mine life at 140,000oz = 0.98Moz.

The MRE is 1.73Moz. That was calculated with a very low cut-off grade ($1,300/oz I think), so this figure would easily be more than 2Moz, with the mine exploration still open in multiple directions.

Try putting in a resource of 2Moz and 7 year mine life

While it's good for some quick and nasty NPV calcs, I wouldn't be investing real money based on the numbers that Chat CTP alone throws out.

There are a few things wrong with that, including AISC, Price of Gold, Shares in issue, etc. etc.

The cynic in me is suspicious that somebody is trying to keep the price down. If you were planning on exiting, surely you'd just average out over the next number of days. Big one-off sells to me always look like an attempt to dampen down any flickers of flames starting to grow.

Going into the weekend 0.7p+ will be a nice catalyst for some fireworks early next week.

I'm going to call it now that we're a solid 0.85p+ (maybe pushing 0.9p) by close on Tuesday.

Definitely feels like hype is building. Even if it's just in anticipation of next weeks Market Day 2024 event, there's probably an easy 20% to me made in the next week on that hype alone. And even if nothing is announced there, there'll only be another 10 trading days left in Q4 after that!!

I don't think that it will even stop to catch a breath at 1p.

KEFI have 80% of a resource worth $3b! Yes there is a large risk percentage required, but 80% of $3b is 30p per share. Even with a 90% discount for risk and time (which is crazy), that's still 3p. 50% would be more typical = 15p.

I know that these prices seem crazy, but that's only because the current sp is so crazy low. Typically you would expect KEFI to be sitting with an mcap circa 1.5p (£100m), and from this position a x10 would seem completely feasible.

I think KEFI could really really surprise some people. This spring has been coiling for a VERY long time!!

I expect that there will have to be an RNS when EG ratification is complete, possibly another when TDB re-approve new loan amount, and then a final "detailed documentation signed" RNS. Although depending on the order of events, these could all be simultaneous. The documents could be physically signed by everybody already, but it is only upon AFC ratification that it becomes a legally attested contract.

In that case it would just be one "deal done" RNS.

My preference would be 5pm on Friday. Give potential investors time to calculate the inherent value of TK, and give holders time to consider their plan, calculate their valuations, and make considered decisions about whether (or when) to sell or hold.

The telegram group posted about the African Investment Forum's Market Day 2024 event. This is 4th to 6th December, hosted buy a forum of banks including AFC and TDB. They typically take the opportunity to spotlight (and pat their own backs) about their recent investment projects.

It would be very convenient (for out $240m backers!) if this was announced before the 4th December.....

PS..... KEFI does love a Friday!

It will be a buying frenzy, and even sellers looking to cash in won't sell while its still spiking upwards. I imagine that the first "post-RNS" buys will need to be at close to 1.5p.

It will feel expensive (in comparison to 2024 prices!), but it will still be a great buy and could easily be sold for 3p hours later!

It is very hard to predict where the sp will land after the "finance done deal" RNS. Theoretically it "should" easily be in the 8p+ range, based on even the most pesimistic NPV calculations, rising again in the coming months as the SA assets are sold (currently nil value in sp imo). Post SA sale there is no reason why the NPV won't be 10p+, rising as we get closer to production. I appreciate that analysists have said circa 10p on production, but they are overly bearish on the PoG imo.

In saying that...... just because the NPV says 8p (which finance de-risked), that doesn't dictate the sp. primarily because sp always lags inherent value imo, and I also feel like there will be a rush to the exits for a lot of frustrated LTH as soon as they get above water, and I also think that when the sp reaches levels like 2p, etc. it will "feel" like a spikey and "high" price. People will sell (or maybe not buy) based on emotional assessment of value, rather than logic. It will take time for the dust to settle, NPV calcs to be carries out, institutions to pitch and approve their investment cases, etc, etc.

Therefore I conservatively expect an initial rerate to circa 1.5p, followed by a bit of a wobble, and then finishing the day around 2p. A week later I predict closer to 3p (say 2.8p), but then a steady upward trend for the next month or so. Following that I expect that speculation around the SA assets will begin, with an expectation that news could add another 1p-2p onto the sp, however I would expect a traded "buy the rumour, sell the news" spike and return, followed by a steady rise to circa 10p by end of '27.

My predication therefore is 2p close on day of RNS, 3p by end of the week, 4p by Christmas, 6p by April, 7p-8p by this time next year.

If greed induced buying takes over, there is every chance of 5p - 7p on day of RNS (the value is there and the NPV can support those prices), but it would require a lot of hype and visibility, and I suspect it would be trader driven and eventually fall back below 5p again, so even I would trade if we got to over 6p on an RNS spike.

KEFI isn't leaky, but I'm not so sure about the NBE or the HOPR, or ACF, or TDB.....

Could easily be news about AFC's ratification or perhaps TDB's re-confirmation of approval at the higher amount.

Somebody is feeling very confident anyway.

PS - not sure I'd call it a 50:50. Worst case you lose 100%, best case you make 1,000%. Not bad odds imo.

Rob, thanks for the summary of the court case. Perhaps the optics of a massive (hundred of millions added to sp) win immediately before going into a court hearing wouldn't be to KEFI's advantage! What's the odds our next good news on the definitive documentation comes immediately upon resolution of that court case!

Fukutu. What is the court case, and what do you think the worst outcome for KEFI might be?

Also, in what way is this related to the TKGM project?