Member Info for Stebo

Sherezy, my point is that it would cost us nothing. For example do a buy-back at sub-1p, then do a raise when we're above 5p.

"Since Kefi makes no money whatesoever, there is no income. Selling off part of the company's assets does not count as income, in the same way that selling your house doesn't"

If your business plan is flipping houses, then every time you sell a house for profit then it does count as income!

We are an explorer. Finding and selling assets is our business. Personally trying to become a junior miner with two finds at the same time was way too aspirational. Harry to be fair had a workable plan, but the market didn't share his optimism and fate has conspired against him. Going back to plan A and turning a huge profit on SA is less aspirational, but still very profitable.

Sharezy, I hadn't thought about a share buy-back. That's a good shout, would show that KEFI have real confidence in themselves and takes advantage of the current sp situation well.

The impact is maybe a bit more vague though. Is there a likely hood that the buy-back increases the sp, which leads to selling, which reduces the sp again? Would that essentially end up rewarding lose hands and traders, as opposed to longsuffering LTH?

Good to think about, and I wonder what KEFI's plans are for the money. It seems like by the time that they made the sale, all they will have to spend it on is replaying the loan that we are currently using to operate with.

In response to EL, dividends are kind of the whole point in shares. You buy shares to own part of a company and get a share of it's profits. If those profits are continually reinvested, with no prospect of a dividend, then you are just trading pieces of paper like a commodity that has no intrinsic value. The only prospect is capital gains, which means you're only speculating that somebody will eventually thing that your piece of paper if worth more than you paid for it, and they only do that because they think that somebody will eventually pay them more for it than they are paying you.

That is trading, as opposed to investing. I always buy shares with an investment mindset, that way a low sp doesn't ever affect me emotionally, because I am investing in future dividends, not speculating on share-price. If eventually somebody else thinks that my investment is worth more to them that it is to me, then I'll perhaps sell it to them, but the default position is that I will be happy to hold for ever and take my share of the company profits down the line.

That's why dilution is a real kick in the balls, and I suppose my only real interest in the sp is that a high share price protects against dilution.

Even just announcing that it is being considered, or will be voted on (alongside the decision to sell at all!) would be a great catalyst to the sp.

I don't think that even the grimmest pessimist actually thinks that TK isn't now going to happen, and if TK happens then even the most conservative estimates of NPV are circa 5p-7p per share (say market value of 5p). So everybody accepts that when the sp rerates it is going to be at least 3p+. All that we need is that explosive event to get the sp to move in the right direction and shake off this negative sentiment.

The prospect of a 0.5p per share dividend would be massive and get the sp rocketing. Typically if a dividend was going to be 0.5p, you'd expect the sp to be at least 10p (5% yield). Even if the sp just rocketed to take advantage of a special dividend, when it settled back down (in six months time), TK should be properly motoring towards production, with finance all settled, ESX up and going, maybe DFS for underground done and RE increased to well over 2moz. By then the annual dividends from production would only be round the corner and there's no way the sp would ever fall back down to these ridiculous levels.

I would see a dividend as an investment in the sp, which is an investment in the company resilience. With a more reasonable and reflective sp, we could easily recover the £30m (or even £15m) spent on a dividend if we ever needed to.

I think that we could get close to £80m for SA assets, so we could easily allocate £30m of that to a dividend, and have £50m in the bank as a TK war-fund. That would be plenty to fast-track TK, sort out underground mine DFS, further exploration in the region, and see us safely through to when we're significantly cash-flowing and repaid our debts.

By that stage the sp will be 10p plus, and recovering the £30m raise would hardly make a dint in the sp, or we could just adjust future dividends at that stage to recover the £30m without anybody even noticing.

Well if we sold SA then we would be making money. Currently KEFI is an explorer, finding mines, adding value and selling them is the business model.

I also think that our sp is our biggest weakness, and our number one priority should be to protect ourselves by recorrecting that. A dividend would demonstrate a change in mentality a go a long way to correct the common narrative that KEFI abuses its shareholders.

I also think that it would be using the currently ludicrous sp to KEFI's advantage. They could take £30m of whatever they sell SA for and issue a dividend which would be massive in relation to our sp. That would make headlines.

If that turned the sentiment, and the sp corrected to be more in line with inherent value (even only 2p-3p, more likely 5p plus if we're demonstrating that we pay dividends), then we could easily raise that £30m back again with minimal dilution at a later stage, when we have a specific use for that money.

I disagree. When we sell the SA assets for $80m-$100m, we could easily issue a dividend similar to the current sp.

That would show the share-holders that they board are now serious about looking after shareholders and change the KEFI sentiment. KEFI's biggest issue is it's sp, which is completely disconnected from the intrinsic value and speculative value. That isn't because people think Harry is doing a bad job on the ground (any reasonable person can see that civil war, covid, dealing with EG, etc. is not Harry's fault), but it's because they feel that they can't trust Harry to abuse shareholders through placings. Putting that to bed, and reassuring shareholders that he is now on our side would be massive.

A dividend equal to our current sp would take advantage of our crazy low current sp, and also be massive PR for KEFI as an investment opportunity.

I think that a small dividend to shareholders would be beneficial in the long-term for KEFI.

We can blame Harry, etc all we like for SA falling through, but the reality of it is that the market and shareholder sentiment is to blame. There is zero reason why KEFI sp should be less than 2p-3p at the minute, this close to TK being de-risked, and if we are at those levels we could easily have carried out a small raise (minimal dilution) to gather in the £10m+ to hold onto our piece of the GMCO pie.

So far Harry has used and abused the market as a tool to get KEFI to the position that it is now in, which I believe is why the sp is in the gutter in relation to the inherent value. The sp is now in a position where KEFI have said that another placement is basically no longer an option, and while that might sound good for shareholders, it also really ties KEFI's hands.

The ideal situation is to get KEFI sp to more reasonable levels, which will make current shareholders plenty of money, and mean that future placements have minimal dilution. To do this Harry needs to change the sentiment and move KEFI from being the most hated company on AIM to being a success story for shareholders.

I would love to see Harry come out an explicitly say that the SA asset sales mean that there won't be any further raises until at least 2026, and that as an acknowledgement of longsuffering shareholders that there will be a special dividend following the sale of SA assets. I believe that would transform the sp overnight, with both the risk of placement gone, a dividend to look forward to, and TK close-out just round the corner. The days of sub-two pence sp would be gone forever, and KEFI's mcap would reflect it's outlook and the work of the last 5-10 years

Our forte is exploration. In SA we will have turned $10m into circa $100m. If we keep doing that, while at the same time building up a war chest in TK, I'll be happy.

I've been saying this for a while lol

At $2,600 a sp of 10p is conservative (reasonably, considering jurisdiction), and could easily be much higher.

I also said $100m for our 15% of SA, despite all the nonsense on here about $15m or even the $30m being mooted by some.

KEFI is massively undervalued, significantly de-risked, and it is just a matter of time until the wider market catches on to this and we re-rate to at least 10x in the short term. Anything below 5p and I'm still a buy.

It also can't be disregarded that both Edison and Orior are in the same ball-park, so that's a lot of "piper fees" if KEFI is asking them to bend their calcs.

I was also mentioned on telegram that Edison were using a POG well below $2,000/oz for their calculations, so there's as much of an argument that these $50m-$80m are conservative. in fact my opinion is that the "they're paid for by KEFI" argument is a bit tinfoil-hat, whereas the argument that they are conservative due to the POG allowance is statistical.

You only have to look at other companies, where the Analysist recommendations are lower than the current sp, even though those reports are also paid for by the relevant companies.

Similar to last week. RNS drops, the modus operandi negative sentiment of "harrys a ****", "same old KEFI", "screw the shareholders" kicks in, bed-wetters wet, panic sales, sp drops......

...... then everybody has a cup of tea in bed, actually reads the RNS, realises that this is positive for KEFI's short-term fortunes, and is likely to add 1p-1.5p onto the sp in the next 6 months.

Hopefully we see a Thursday similar to last week.

"Err then why did he sell 10% for 7m quid - what top negotiating !but someone else will else will pay 5-10 times that price - sure dream on"

He didn't sell it. KEFI had to pay £7m to retain the rights to that 10%. We don't have $7m, and to raise it would have not been in the interest of the shareholders.

"Orior capital saying our remaining 15% worth $50-78m !"

.....Plus more at todays POG and above, depending on how bullish you are on POG in six months

" valuing KEFI at 2.15p per share (cf 2.21p/share previously) fully diluted. At current metals prices, however, this valuation increases to 6.33p now and to 9.27p in FY28 "

Good catch lol 0.59p not £0.59..... it's still ten grand in dividends!

First it was "as soon as we get finance sorted this will rerate"..... finance now approved and nothing

Then is was "don't invest now, a placement is coming"....... KEFI has confirmed it will protect shareholder value and sell SA instead of raise ...... people still negative

TK is easily worth a billion to KEFI, due to be commissioned in a couple of years, and we are sitting here with an mcap of £36m!!!

Edison predicting 60p per share dividends.... buy 1.7m shares now for £10k and that is £1m in dividends in only a handful of years!!!

Assuming that SA is valued at nil within our mcap currently (because without TK is doesn't happen anyway), then this sale should add a minimum of 0.8p to our sp.

If we sell for more than Edison's forecast $50m, and the cash in the bank dissipates market fears of another placing, then it could easily add an extra 1p-2p in my opinion.

It is taken from the latest Edison report.

They value the remaining 15% at $50m.....

..... but it's not clear what POG they are using for their calculations because they also say "valuing KEFI at 2.15p per share (cf 2.21p/share previously) fully diluted. At current metals prices, however, this valuation increases to 6.33p now and to 9.27p in FY28"

So at todays POG presumably that $50m valuation for the 15% increases x2 or x3.

I'd take $150m for 15% of a KSA mine that won't be operational for 3 years + !