Member Info for Stebo

I haven't studied all the asseys, but I feel like the grade has improved. I wouldn't be surprised if MRE 2 doesn't really increase the volume, but increases the certainty of the model and an increase in the grade. I worry that this will disappoint people who can't fathom this, just like the PFS was completely misunderstood.

SharkyBruce, it's nonsense to state that drill results will not push up the sp as fact.

Drill results are the key driver in our ever improving fundamentals. Yes the sp has been on a downward trend, and contrary to GGP's increasing "real value", but that could change in the blink of an eye, and when it does it will be due to the differential between real value and mcap hitting the limit of rationality.

The sp is driven by manipulators and sentiment, the real-value is driven by the drill-bit and asseys. It's a tug of war between the shorters driving negative sentiment, and the drill bit hitting more gold. The shorters have been winning for a long time but I feel they're already using their full mite, whereas the drill bit just keeps hitting gold and Hav just keeps growing - eventually the weight of gold is going to tip the balance against the weight of manipulation.

There's a real chance that MRE2 may only contain drilling data up to mid '21. I would caution about getting over-excited.

A low MRE2 doesn't mean the gold isn't there, just that it's not in this report

Tonight is a newcrest update - I don't expect to hear about the 5% FMV tonight.

To do so would make it seem like it had been agreed weeks ago and was being sat on until the pre-planned report.

I do think that it will be soon after through. I would love it to drop as a 4:30pm Friday afternoon RNS, allowing people the weekend to digest and assess the revised FMV for GGP in relation to the 5%. Worst thing would be an afternoon of volatility and trading with no rational connection to fundamental value.

Adski98999 - good luck with that. And thanks for that greatly informative post.

Every pay day I'm taking some until about mid-twenties. The longer the sp stays below that the richer my future self is going to be!!

GGP own 30% of Hav, not 25%

If you're going to factor in the upcoming purchase of 5% then you should take in the £££££ that GGP are going to earn for that. Also I don't think that it's unreasonable to speculate that the POG is going to increase significantly.

It's one thing saying that GGP sp can't be £1 because that's a mcap of £13bn and Newcrest are only £9bn, but in a years time (when Hav starts to shine and PoG rockets) who's to say that Newcrest's mcap by then won't be £30bn.

You can't forecast GGPs sp based on today's situation. If we all didn't think Hav would grow and the PoG will increase, then I doubt any of us would be invested (long-term) in GGP!

Khrysos, I think that the 5% FMV will be way North of $280m. Maybe even close to twice that.

Zoros you are being deliberately facetious (and condescending too - I am well aware of how to calculate how mcap translates to sp! Your misunderstanding was because you mistook us$ for aus$)

When 5% of Havieron-JV is valued, that value can be pro-rata'd to the remaining 25% which GGP will own, plus the 5% that they just sold (and now hold the cash for).

The true value of GGP's mcap will be 6 times the FMV, plus other small assets and liabilities such as Juri JV, other tenements, etc. That is fact.

You seem to be trying to suggest that the valuation of the 5% is the only portion of GGPs asset which will re-rate. That is nonsense and mathematically doesn't even make any sense. For that to be the case you need the current sp to be a true reflection of the current value of 30% of Hav-JV, as 5% is equal to one fifth of 25%! If that was the case and we sell 5% for a value in line with current sp, then there will be zero movement in GGP's valuation and zero movement in the sp. We will have we've just swapped £x worth of JV for £x worth of cash. Anybody who owns a calculator can see that this clearly isn't going to be the case!

Thankfully you're full of nonsense, and I have to wonder what you are so keen to spread misinformation and try to talk down the valuation. You are clearly intelligent enough to be crafty, so it makes me wonder what your vested interest really is.

In a couple of weeks time the FMV for Hav-JV will be issued to everybody via RNS. Thankfully people are more likely to believe that than you, and can easily understand how that valuation translates into a baseline for GGP's sp.

Thanks Corradus, That's a handy wee table (and checks out).

FWIW

$500m = 55p :-)

AlbaRosa, Yes my calculations and Valuation was is US $. I kind of presumed that the deal would be done in US $ just as it's in relation to POG which is typically in US $. I should have clarified.

In the various broker notes which took a conservative stab at FMC ($250m and $280m I believe), were they in AU $??

They are buying 5% of the Havieron JV, not 5% of the MRE.

Also, just because I've seen some people miscalculating it....

When the 5% FMV of Havieron is declared, GGP's valuation should be in the order of 6 times that number (x6).

I've seen a lot op people presume that GGP's valuation will then be 5 times the FMV figure (as they will then own 25%). This is incorrect.

Even though we will then only own 25% of Hav (as opposed to 30%), our bank balance will now contain a sum equal to that other 5% we just sold. The cash in the bank is an asset and should be included in our Valuation.

In my opinion, x6 the 5% FMV will be a new baseline. Over and above that we can also take into account some value for our other tenements and Juri JV which also hold some intrinsic value (although probably only several pence in fairness)

$ = usd

$150m for 5% = $900m for 30% = £670m mcap = share price of about 18p.

That's about 30% up from here - not a bad worst case scenario from a serial deramper.

If current mcap is £530m for 30% of Hav, then unless the FMV is less than $120m to sp is only going to go up.

Personally I think that it is going to be $400+, equating to new mcap of £1.8b and therefore a sp of 50p+.

That's x3.5 in a matter of weeks for anybody not beside a calculator!

Even if I'm wrong and it's only $280m (in line with some estimates), then it still a mcap of £1.25b (or 33p share price).

Because regardless of the day to day sp, well researched PIs know what this is worth, and won't sell for less that fair value. Tanking the sp wouldn't mean that they could buy out GGP any cheaper.

Your whole premise is flawed.

Newcrest are not buying 5% of MRE2.

They are buying 5% of Newcrest-GGP JV.

Also why would they under-value an asset that they will own 75% of, for the sake of saving a few quid on the additional 5%.

The SP has absolutely no relation to the FMV. Also it's 5% stake of the Havieron JV, not 5% of Havieron. It is valuation of a business, which should include all assets, proven, forecast and potential, along with risks to realisation of these assets.

The clinker is that it's 5% of a business which Newcrest already own 70%, so it makes no business sense at all for them to try to low-ball GGP. I am confident of a fair offer from Newcrest, and a sp re-rate up to 30s / 40s maybe 50s to reflect a pro-rata of the 5% valuation.

Finally some sanity will be restored to GGP's sp!!