Member Info for Stebo

Silverhorse, I'm sure you appreciate the scepticism over just about anything posted on the internet. It would be great for shareholder confidence if you could give us the time of a big buy trade a bit ahead of time, and then everybody could see it coming through L2 and know what you are saying is legit.

Is that something you would be able to do??

Such a bullish view on Havieron - Hav is absolutely pivotal to Newcrest. That can't be lost on anybody now.

I think this is going to impact sp tomorrow morning.
- Definitely mining the high grade crescent
- Excited to find out the grades of the breccia and how it can be bulk mined
- Bought into Hav based on 4nr holes, every hole drilled since finds more gold
- Hav PFS report in Sep
- Focused on getting high grade Hav ore to Telfer ASAP

This cannot be any clearer now - from the horses mouth

HL has taken the spurious Friday UT (at 24p) as the opening price. It wasn't.

That's correct. Institutions are the stickiest of sticky hands. There's a reason they don't do bed-wetting - changing those sheets is expensive!

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those sales were PI chancers hoping that they might get 24p, or possibly people who over the weekend see the sp and 24p and sent through a sell which was only processed on the opening bell.

I would soon expect the rise to soon start in the run up to the next set of Newcrest results (11th March?)

Feels to me like tomorrow could be an exciting day. I'm no chartist, but all the scribbles I've drawn point me to a convergence due to close tomorrow.

It's interesting that this also coincides with month end, and you mentioned MCAD buy signal (will have to check that out).

I would love it if we could get the remaining scallywag results released to clear the air for substantial growth. I believe that there are a lot of PI investors on the side-line ready to pile in once this starts moving again, and I also believe that the current shares are in sticky hands (who've already rode out a 50% fall and held fast) - I wouldn't be surprised to see this sp rising rapidly back to 33p+, with momentum and FOMO carrying it on up to 40p+

That's nonsense. Only have to look at the chart to see that the sp is a coiled spring and we are heading towards a convergence.

I think the release of the remaining scallywag results (clearing the air) will be the trigger for a substantial bounce back up to true value. Those could be released anytime.

Genuine question (and something I will look up myself), but how often has the sp dropped on release of drilling results that weren't Newcrest scheduled drilling updates from Hav? The reason for the dips after the drilling results has been the "buy the rumour, sell the news" self-fulfilling prophesy.

When drilling results have came unannounced has the sp dipped (apart from the first Scally results)??

FenixDor - do you not think that there is a load more investors like yourself sitting on the side-lines hoping for a post-scally dip?

1) because of this buying pressure I think that this will negate any signifigant sp dip
2) this is completely different circumstances to the first scallywag results, therefore there is no longer any reason why there might be a dip, other that people like yourself expecting the same result from completely different circumstances
- Completely different share holder make-up - "paper-handed" idiots are gone
- Completely different expectations - Better understanding of the value of pathfinder minerals (thanks to the likes of magic), and an expectation that there will be more of the same with the next set of results.

I wish you all the best, but I think that you will struggle to ever find a better buy-in / top-up price than you have available right now.

FenixDor - What makes you think it will drop again? I look forward to you buying back in after the release of the results. I expect there are hundreds more like you, which I feel will negate any fall anyway. Will be interesting to see what happens regardless, and I think we both agree that the sp will be significantly North of 22p shortly after the results are released. Would you agree with that?

I don't think the next Scally results (regardless of what they contain) will pull the sp down. In fact I am expecting a rally once they have been released and cleared the air! This is due to the following reasoning:

1) The only way the sp will fall is if people sell (as they did the first time round).

2)The reason for the first sell off was that investors were hoping to strike gold first time and didn't get it. These uneducated and disappointed investors have now left the building and can't sell off for a second time. There is nobody left who didn't sell after the first drop but are going to sell on further similar results - that wouldn't make sense

3) This time everybody is expecting similar to last time, so I don't foresee any disappointment regardless of the results. There is no downside (and a very slim chance of upside)

4) The results are now due anytime and expected to be similar to last ones. Therefore anybody who maybe understands the Scallywag initial pathfinder results, but is still inclined to the notion of the sp dipping on these results, will already have sold up (believing that they are avoiding an inevitable dip).

5) Those people (happy with GGP but expecting a dip) will currently be sitting on the side-lines, hopeful of a second dip, but waiting to pile back in for the rise once this has passed.

6) The information gained from the first drilling campaign (in itself) has massive value in terms of directing future exploration, therefore the further drill-results in themselves contain value and improve the fundamentals.

Purely based on the irrational reaction the first time round I expect that the MM will try a bit of a tree-shake. But there are no longer any irrational investors left, so I don't think this will lead to any substantial selling. As MMs let the price quickly return then there will be a real scramble for shares. This will be the proper start of the retrace back up to high 30s imo.

I can't wait for the rest of the results - at the minute I feel like they are stunting the sp's return to 30s as money sits on the sidelines awaiting their release. I can't wait to get back to business as usual - 40p within a month of their release is my prediction.

I don't see a big sell off on the way back up. Most PIs will have bought in at 30p+ and if the price is slowly rising there will be a mentality of waiting until they don't have to sell at a loss.

I do agree though that there will be people who will have had a harsh reality check on how volatile AIM can be, so will likely get their heads above water and sell up to put their money in a cash isa instead!

BTW I'm very aware of yesterdays price being real - I had to sell £7k to pay an unexpected bill.. I didn't have any spare cash as I'd already thrown every penny at GGP., so (completely against my beliefs in GGP) I had to grit my teeth and hit the sell button at those ridiculous prices. It's a right kick in the balls to see that I sold at just about the lowest point. That £7k has now cost me £8k, and by the time this gets back to fair value it will be a lot more than that!

I'm in since 12p though, and I still have a significant holding. I just don't want to watch others to sell out early. Whoever it was that manipulated the price recently is going to have as much fun collecting under-valued shares on the way back up as they did on way down. I can't stop sellers, and there will be those who simply need to sell, but I'd love to stick it to the manipulator by everybody holding fast and sitting on those hand until fair value is restored.

TomE - it was a real price, but it wasn't a real value

I think it is now taken as a given that the price had been manipulated down. The real value is 33p+++, not the artificial value recently attributed to it due to manipulation.

If investors can understand that the real value is 33p+++ (as per the multitude of conservative calculations by various holders, and our broker notes) then why would you sell under-value. If investors presume that the real value is low-20s then they will incorrectly assume that when the sp hits 30p it's time to sell.

The price was real, but it was artificial and wasn't reflective of the value. Perhaps that is a better way to put it.

BTW I'm not expecting 35p today, but over the course of the next week.

It would be madness to sell out at mid, or even high 20s.

This 24p talk is absolute nonsense.

DON'T BE INFLUENCED BY THE COMPLETELY ARTIFICIAL PRICE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS - IT WASN'T REAL!

This is a mid-30p share all day long. We all know 30p was cheap on the way down. Since then the fundamentals have improved so why would you sell for that on the way back up!

Either that or just find a company with real value and let your money sit there until the value is realised, without risking loosing your shirt by trying to screw others in the hope that somebody else doesn't screw you first.

Whatever you like though

"There are so many people expecting big news on monday when Shaun takes over i fear we may see a drop if there isnt any"

I don't think there is. I think most people are expecting some more dusters from Scallywag, then a few sound-bites from Sean Day and then Newcrest at their half-year report. Next "good" news I'm expecting will be the next round of Hav drill results.

I wouldn't be surprised if the sp rises after the Scallywag drill results (which will likely be dusters). I worry that investors are waiting until after that in case we have a repeat of the last over-reaction.

Don't think GH is leaving tomorrow. Is it not that SD starts tomorrow but doesn't take over as CEO until mid March?