RE: 40p8 Mar 2021 18:05
Zoros, I feel that you are being just as pessimistic as Aquakidd is being optimistic!
I'm not sure you are correct on the 33p being based on 12+Moz, and then the other 50% of 66p being realised based on the FS, etc. I understood that the 33p arrives from a valuation of 66p based on 12Moz, but with a 50% risk factor applied, bringing the current (last Nov) valuation to 33p.
That 50% risk factor includes the risk of the total Moz not reaching 12Moz, etc.
Since that broker note we've had the following:
- Significant progress with the mine decline
- Newcrest have also made increasingly optimistic noises about the rate of progression
- We have also had further drilling results from Havieron, which have all been great,
- We've discovered a whole new segment to Havieron in the Eastern Breccia
- Plus the comment about a new separate discovery within the Havieron tenement
- Price of copper increasing which increases the AUequiv (and gold is still above the hedged $1400 rate)
- Whole new JV with Newcrest, plus loan agreement negating financing risks
To me the above significantly eats into the 50% risk allowance, and hopefully Wednesday's results will further that.
I don't think that the 40p mentioned is unreasonable. I feel like as of later there has been a narrative that the sp was over-cooked in the 30s. I disagree with this, and think that the current sp is the anomaly, however I accept that it is being driven by sentiment around gold, crypto, rainbow chasing, and whatever else is the flavour of the month.
The fundamental value is there for at least 35p, however that relies on the market being forward looking. I would expect a current Berenberg note to forecast an increased final Moz, and a decreased risk factor.
40p wasn't being dismissed in Dec, nothing negative has been discovered which should change that so don't let current negative sentiment (not the current sp) dictate a ceiling to the valuation.