Member Info for Stebo

TheSecretTrader - why do you say that "ratification will take a couple of months to be resolved"?

This is absolutely contrary to everything that I have read and what KEFI are telling us very explicitly - "already been approved by the relevant Ministry and the relevant documentation for its ratification is already in place, therefore no administrative delays are anticipated."

Having spend some time reading up on how long this typically takes, the first stage can be quite time consuming, which is to get Ministry of Finance approval. Following that it is a quick five minute read through in the HoPR, and a vote to agree to give the AFC's Constitutive Instruments equal footing to domestic Ethiopian law. This will happen in the blink of an eye, and it is just a matter of when the HoPR order of business will get to it.

Unfortunately it will not be a big story for international press, and it is difficult to get live English coverage of the HoPR, so for all we know this could have happened yesterday, but we are still to find out about it.

I didn't include sale of SA assets in that list. I know some of you are very confident about it being a pre-agm / pre-TKGM contract event. I'm not sure. I fully believe that it is already a done-deal, but I'm not sure how long it will take to do the legals on the deal, and I don't see it as essential prior to the contract signing. The placement has cleared liabilities so that should be good enough imo for the definitive documentation contract to be signed.

I have to agree.

By the end of January I am fully expecting the following:

- AFC Ratification (hopefully on Thurs)

- TDB re-approval (likely already happened, but will be nice to see it in an RNS)

- Syndicate contract signed and launch of fully funded TKGM as a business, which is thee big re-rate event (hopefully next week, or before the end of Dec)

- 3rd party verification of security and community readiness (can be done first thing in Jan, as soon as TKGM is up and running)

- TKGM meeting their contract obligations to achieve financial close and first draw-down of funds

- Major Works commencement

- ERNs fully subscribed, and ESX up and running to provide liquidity for these ERNs

- Institutions and funds starting to buy in now that KEFI meets their investment criteria, i.e. junior minor (as opposed to explorer), fully funded, etc.

Upshunt, maybe you missed it, but the AFC loan in already approved.

Shorters, and those still accumulating a bargain basement prices, are starting to get desperate lol.

One last ditch effort to get holders to give away their shares for half a penny. Going to have to try harder than that..... this cat already has it's paw out of the bag.

In my haste I forgot to adjust for KEFI only holding 80% of TK!

Corrected NPVs are:

@$2,600/oz = 13p

@$3,000/oz = 19p

Apologies - the excitement of the mind-blowing potential got to me lol

I just carried out a refreshed NPV for KEFI, might be of interest to anybody considering investing in KEFI. This is based on $2,600 Price of Gold, and an AISC of $1,300 to cover repayment of finances:

1. Tulu Kapi Valuation

Annual Production = 245,700oz/year for 7 years (conservative 1.72moz total)

Cashflow per oz = $1,300/oz (Conservative $2,600 PoG, less $1,300 AISC, covering debt repayment)

Annual Cashflow = 245,700oz x $1,300 = $320m/year

Discount rate of 10%, based on production starting in 2028, and running for 7 years, give NPV for TK of $1.555b

2. Other Assets

Saudi Assets = 15% of 3moz @ typical gold-in-ground rate of $100/oz = $45m, plus exploration upside of $5m = $50m

Cash in bank following placement = £6m = $7.6m

Konso License, assumed nominal value of £5m

3. Total NPV

$1,555m + $50 + $7.6m + $5m = $1,617.6m

$1,617.6m = £1,273m = £1.273b

4. Share Price Calculation, based on 8.25b shares in issue

£1.273b / 8.25b = £0.156 = 15.4p

15.4p is over x30 from our current share price of 0.5p

I also ran this based on a $3,000/oz price of gold, $70m for the Saudi assets, and 2moz resource estimate at Tulu Kapi (exploration is still open). This comes to 22.6p per share.

I want to caveat this all with the fact that the share price will often sit a bit below the NPV, but hopefully this will help people understand why analysists think that we should have a sp sitting at circa 10p+

I still think that people can't see past the irrelevance of our current £35m mcap, and are being blinded by the 0.5p share price. The potential returns within the next 6 months with KEFI are difficult to comprehend.

All of this is irrelevant until we get the detailed definitive documentation signed, but as soon as we do.....

Winstonwolf, I would have expected it to, but perhaps KEFI and AFC consider this just to be admin and the big news, which was formal approval of the loan, has already been announced.

I expect that all remaining bits of admin will fall into place within days following AFC Ratification, therefore I wouldn't be shocked if they just wait and release one RNS saying that all conditions precedent are now sorted, and all syndicate members have now signed the detailed definitive documentation (and Champagne is Harry's drink of choice this Christmas!).

The market would have a panic attack, which would be good for traders, but I personally would rather we had two or three RNS's released as each piece falls into place, hopefully over the coming days and still within Q4.

AFC Ratification is now as good as done, in my opinion. It's just a case of waiting for the RNS to drop.

It’s generally great news for Ethiopia and KEFI doing business there, but I’m also expecting to get an RNS regarding AFC ratification today. EG is obviously sitting today discussing banking, foreign investment, etc. All vested interests will be there, so it’s the perfect opportunity to ratify AFC membership.

Excellent news.

What you’re suggesting makes no sense. You’re saying that because there has previously been a placement then there’s always going to be placements.

That notion is right….. until it’s wrong. And once you find out it’s wrong the sp will be 3-5p and you’ve missed out on the high-risk:high-returns opportunity.

I’m not saying that it definitely is going to happen this week (that would be a silly as you banging on saying that it’s definitely not going to), or even soon…. just that I believe it could and there’s a better chance of it happening now than ever before, and the downside has never been lower.

It it’s not because of what ‘Harry says’. It’s because of transformational legislative changes in Ethiopia, soaring price of gold, ESX launching, peace agreements and security risk lowering.

As I said. You’ve made you decision, and you’re going to have to live with it. There’s no need to keep banging on about how everyone else in wrong and your right.

Bonkers, nothing is ever done until it’s done. Congratulations on stating the obvious.

If you don’t think the contract is likely to be signed imminently, that’s fine. Please stop getting agitated that the majority are now paying attention to 3rd party sources and starting to see that TKGM is looking like it’s finally going to happen.

It might be Dec, or it might be early next year. Either way, I am feeling really confident that we have seen the lowest the sp is going to go, and the last of the placements needed to get TK to the starting line.

Just waiting for ratification (hopefully tomorrow!) which is the starting pistol :-)

Make your choice and live with your decision. That’s what I’ve done

Tuesday & Thursday........ indeed.

HoPR sitting tomorrow could be transformational for KEFI!

Buried treasure.... had KEFI just put a $50-$70m+ asset up for sale since those previous placings you mentioned?

Had the two banks approved the finance package during those previous placings?

Had Early Works been carried out, with a clear runway towards signing the contract, commencing major works and drawing down finance funds within the next few months been set out during the previous placings?

I get your cynicism, but it's completely flawed. Can you not see how silly it is to suppose that just because TK hasn't been built before means that it's definitely never going to be built. It's like saying because we haven't gotten to our destination yet, that we are just going to keep driving forever.

Bonkers, you don't seem to understand how business works. The sp doesn't move based on somebody's predictions. You also don't seem to understand how predictions work - they are based on an assumption of a fundamental change in intrinsic value (such as major de-risking event), and then the prediction is a guess as to how the market might value that change.

Any predictions I have made about KEFI are based on getting the TKGM contract signed. That is when KEFI transforms from being a speculative explorer to being a junior miner. That is when the valuation goes from being based on "likelihood of Harry getting a finance deal" to "we've gotten finance deal in the pocket, now how profitable is this mine going to be". It is up to individuals to make their own minds up in regard to how likely they think that is to happen. Currently we have KEFI saying signed contract in Q4, we have movements within the EG HoPR regarding granting external banks a right to operate in Ethiopia this week, we have the ESX launching in the first two weeks of Jan, we have a GM on 2nd Jan, etc., etc. I'm not telling anybody what to think, but I personally think that all the signs are pointing to a lot of changes within the next month, with the first of those hopefully coming this week.

You want to know what has changed in the last year though.... AFC took about ten months longer than expected to approve the deal, which also meant that we've had another placing. We'd have all loved to have been 6 months into constructing a mine now, but if this was easy then there would be no money to be made by taking the risk.

Thankfully though in the last year gold has also went up by $700/oz, which is circa $1b in value added to TK.

In that time our mcap has dropped by about £10m, which is crazy, and provides such an opportunity for new investors.

AFC has finally now approved the finance deal.

The drafted definitive detailed documentation has now been formally approved by the whole syndicate.

The security situation in Ethiopia has improved significantly with a new peace deal having recently been agreed.

Ethiopian legislation has been modernised to facilitate business in the country.

The ESX has been licensed and is due to launch in the first couple of weeks of January.

KEFI has agreed to a better deal within the syndicate, securing more funds through bank loans, improving the upside cost of debt.

KEFI has stated that it will sell the SA assets, cashing in the work carried out there, securing KEFI and meaning that we're very unlikely to see another placing.

Placing just carried out, debts all wiped clear, £6m cash in the bank, clearly on the cusp of getting contract signed..... all while the sp is still in the gutter.

I'm not sure how much of a better opportunity people are looking for!

Bonkers…. You see when you say that the share price is not going to be 3p by Christmas…. that is a share price prediction, except when I make a prediction I say that it is just my prediction or opinion. You state your “opinions” as though they are facts.

If ratification of AFC happens this week, then there’s every chance that the sp could be 3p by Christmas.

It is not about a % raise. It is about KEFI moving from zero-trust and 100% speculative, to restoring trust and creating inherent value (80% of a £2b gold mine!!).

You, and your gang, have done a great job of removing any optimism and getting the sp down to these depths, but soon the sp will be based on our gold mine, not speculation. It will be a value that investors can put a finger on and calculate, so no amount of negativity will change those NPV calculations.

Here’s to a great and transformative week for KEFI

Last 2 weeks of Dec ‘24 or Jan ‘25.

I’m here until dividends anyway so the only difference it makes to me is whether I can use my Christmas bonus to further accumulate or no. Once we hit 3p I’m stopping buying. At 5p+ I’m too-slicing you redistribute and diversify. I’m not here to ramp or encourage others to buy, etc as it makes zero difference to me. I’m just excited and hoping that I can point some other people in the right direction to do their own research and hopefully make it in at the absolute optimal opportunity.

Looking forward to this week. Let’s see if Harry can pull Q4 out of the bag :-)

Docs are already drafted. It was in 6th Nov RNS. Just awaiting AFC ratification (hopefully this week!!)

I initially missed where you said about 0.7p following the de-risking and signing of the definitive detailed documentation lol

If you’re going to be a deramper, try to be a bit more subtle about it lol.

More likely to be 7p than 0.7p lol

I reckon 3p on signing (hopefully this week) rising to 5p as major works commence after Christmas and we start drawing down funds (some people still won’t be happy until the see ‘money in the bank’!).