Member Info for Stebo

Pedro, I agree with that. It's a real opportunity to place you bet on a match after already watching the first 20 minutes and seeing one team going two up!

Lol @ Bonkers scraping about for some shreds of respectability, and plagued by the precondition that every discussion on here is an "irked" argument.

Electric Lion, fair enough my high-level sums on here are quick and nasty, and just to make a point about how KEFI's NPV has zero relation to it's current mcap or sp. I would actually be really interested to hear your thoughts on what a reasonable NPV for KEFI would be.

Ideally at three stages -

1) now (pre-de-risked)

2) when finance is sorted (de-risked)

3) when in production

If you'd rather not comment, or like to keep your own cards close to your chest, I understand - this is just an invitation should you wish to.

ElectricLion, fair enough, my sp-mcap just just a quick point I was making. If KEFI had £85m cash in the bank though, it's not unreasonable to say that the NPV wouldn't be far away.

I also like a P/E valuation...

160,000oz @ $2000/oz (after AISC) x 80% = £200m profit

Take a P/E ratio of 15 = £3b!

Even a P/E ration of 10 = £2b

Opportunistic....

You're completely right. It's a binary bet, and at this stage it's either going to happen or not. What I find amazing though is the way the market is dealing with that conundrum.

I look at the situation and consider that if it doesn't happen it is worth 0p, and if it does happen it is worth (say 10p at this stage). Therefore if I think that there is a 50% (50:50) chance of it happening I will apply a factor of 50% and consider a reasonable 'pre-de-risked' price to be 5p.

If I thought that there was only a 25% chance of it happening, (1 in 4) I would apply a factor of 25% and consider 2.5p to be a reasonable 'pre-de-risked' price.

On that basis it feels to me that the market is valuing the risk of this happening at only 5% (or 95% sure that it won't ever happen). That to me is ludicrous and is what makes KEFI such a good bet.

I think that there is a pretty high risk that this won't happen in Feb, and also a high risk that it won't happen in March. But I personally think that there is a low risk (less than 20%) that this isn't all sorted before the need for another raise, and a very small risk (less than 5%) that the whole thing falls apart and I lose it all.

It's up to everybody to decide their own risk tolerance, or how the weight each risk, but for me that odds are in my favour and the potential returns are verging on life-changing for me.

Also, Electric Lion, your comment about "let's get over a penny"..... at a penny KEFI will have an £85m mcap.

There's every chance that they could get that just for the 15% of SA assets that they're off-loading.

I have no interest in ramping, but I and just amazed at how often people define (expensive / cheap) based on what the sp has been over the last six months, as opposed to stepping back and actually calculating what a reasonable Valuation is based on profitability or assets.

Electric Lion, I'm not here to "ramp" or encourage anybody to buy or sell. I'm just making an observation.

I disagree that every time somebody says that a share is under-valued that it should be called "ramping". I'm just pointing out that there is a HUGE void between the current sp and what the standard calculations value KEFI at.

What I would encourage is for people to not get distracted by the noise on here, or the current sp and mcap. Instead do your own NPV calculations, whether that be based on the current resources at TK, or the likely annual output, etc. If you need help with the formulas, there is plenty of help online or somebody here can post a formula. Even the most risk adverse and pessimistic calculation is easily going to be knocking on the door of £1.5b valuation by production. Even if it's only £1b, that's still over 12p a share.

I know too many people who can't form a connection between a share price and a companies mcap, and even if they do they struggle to relate a mcap to a companies profitability and Valuation.

I think that the negative history is what makes KEFI unique. Right now it is all so obvious, but because of the history of KEFI, and all the false dawns, the market refuses to "buy the rumour".

Those brave enough to go against the grain stand to profit hugely if they get it right and the market is getting it wrong. When (or "if", if you're a cynic) this starts to go it will be a massive re-rate. The financials of KEFI and the TK mine are difficult to comprehend from a £35m mcap company - every time I do the calcs and get £2b+++ I have to go back and check my figures because it seems so unbelievable (from the current sp of half a penny) that KEFI will be a 25p-30p company once producing 160,000oz per year!

Bonkers, seeing as you have clearly spent ages trawling through old posts (on a board that you have no vested interest in!), I think it's only fair that you merit a reply...

We are still only a few weeks (especially when you take Christmas into account) away from mid-Dec, and there's still every chance (more and more likely every week that passes) that we could hear about AFC ratification today. It's easy to sit back now, when this hasn't happened yet, and say "see, I told you so".... but the sp is the same now as it was mid-Dec, so I'm no worse off. If I had listened to you and sold up, and you had been wrong, then I would be devastated.

The game you are playing is a zero-sum one, with no upside. I'm not sure what it is that you're getting out of it that merits the huge time and effort you commit? KEFI investors are waiting for something, which is going to happen eventually. Do you get a kick out of coming on here each day and saying "see, hasn't happened yet"?

When investors say "this could happen today", we're not saying "this will happen today" - we are hoping that it does, and if it doesn't then we'll hope that it happens tomorrow instead. Nobody's investment strategy is based on AFC Ratification happening this week or next.

How about the day that AFC Ratification does happen, and the day that you are wrong? I can be wrong every day for months, until I'm right, and I only stand to gain (massively). You can be right every day, until you're wrong, and you only stand to loose out.

You are a distraction, trying to encourage each reader on here to look for flaws in each individual tree, intentionally diverting attention away from the expansive woods. Ratification (and the hundreds of little approvals and processes that have been before and are still to come) are all just part of the journey. The destination is 80% of a 2moz gold-mine, with production likely to come online during ATH gold prices. Easily worth £1b+, all while KEFI shares can be bought at a £30m mcap.

I personally believe that we've gotten over the big hills, and the rest of the journey should be largely plain sailing. What month we make it to our destination isn't of huge significance to me, but I am confident that it will be within the next 3 years. Everybody else can make their own mind up, but I'll continue to be excited at the prospect and will continue to look forward to every milestone that we pass.

But Bonker......... the only question that really matters (and lets see if you answer this), is do you think that the EG is going to approve or reject AFC ratification, when it come before the EG? I await your answer, which is either "yes approve", or "no reject".

I would hope that there would be an RNS, but I think that the market is getting overly fixated on the AFC ratification. I think that the EG and KEFI see it as a formality and perhaps not RNS-worthy. It might make more sense to wait another couple of days after the ratification and just RNS the once, following formal confirmation from both AFC and TDB that the loan has been fully approved.

That's when the doors will finally blow off this thing!

Regarding ratification of AFC, it is a show-stopper, but there's more risk of another civil war than it becoming an issue. It's just an administrative formality that's taking time and needs to be worked through.

The EG know that AFC are the Tulu Kapi financier, and they know that they need EG ratification prior to lending. At the same time the EG are pumping money into Tulu Kapi enabling works building road and power infrastructure. They would not have pushed the 'go-button' on that spending if they thought there was any risk of the project being derailed due to ratification!

It does prevent the legal attestation of the contracts though, and that seems to be what the market is looking for before investing, so even though it's very low risk it will be good to get it sorted soon and one less thing to worry about.

Bonkers,

Is that not the exact same behaviour that you were also caught out with?

I'm just curious if you're somehow shorting KEFI, or if you're actually fully aware of it's potential but spending this "accumulation" period doing your very best to pick up shares for as cheap as you can.

It's all completely unethical behaviour, not to mention it also has to be completely fruitless. For all the time and effort you spend on here trying to spread fear, I would be surprised if there has been any impact at all on the sp.

Your time would be much better spend researching other opportunities. KEFI's sp is going to do what it does regardless of your continual bile.

Opportunistic, that's a very balanced an fair post imo.

The way I look at it is that there's "chance A" that this could all be sorted in a number of weeks. There's an "Chance B" that this will be sorted in H1 '25. There's "Chance C" that this will be sorted within this year.

It's up to everybody to make up their own minds as to what "risk" they apply to "Chance A"/"Chance B"/"Chance C"

Personally I think "Chance A" = 50:50, "Chance B" = 70:30, and "Chance C" = 90:10........ but..... even if the worst happens and this takes until 2026 to get sorted, the re-rate will be so spectacular that it is still a great investment. I can happily wait for 12 (or even 24) months for a return that will be a minimum of 100%, and easily well over 1,000%.

The only people getting their knickers in a twist over KEFI are those who were looking for a quick win, based on Harrys promises. The rest of us are content to either keep averaging down as we can afford to, or sit back and wait for D-day, whether that be February '25 or February '26. Good things come to those who wait!

I'm not on telegram, but from when I was I realised that it is mostly worse than on here. Little consortiums of users clubbing together to create groups where they are the admins and can drive a narrative which ever way they want. Just like all the naysayers on here, they obviously have a huge interest in KEFI to dedicate so much time to it, but their interest is not to see the sp rise.

I assume that they are wise enough to realise that within a number of years KEFI is going to be a £billion company, and nothing will stop that, so their current interest is to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible while they accumulate as many shares as they can from the people they convince to sell at these crazy prices. If it wasn't for the current sentiment, KEFI would easily have an mcap of £100m plus right not, just based on asset value with zero speculative forward looking. They are currently picking up millions of shares for less than half price.

The fact that the Fear-mongering has really picked up since Dec tells me that they know their days of bargain hunting are coming to a end. In march we will sell SA Assets for well over our current mcap. The "marks" that these naysayers are currently scamming will catch on at that stage that a company who own a £billion mine, with say £50m in the bank has to be valued at way way over the current mcap. At that stage the game is up and common sense and intelligence will start to prevail leading to a more reasonable mcap.

I've tried to help people by explaining this, but I've did my bit and don't have the time to keep protecting any fools who would sell at these levels, so instead I'm just taking advantage. Hopefully two more pay-check top-ups before this starts to re-rate in March.

Https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ethiopia-launches-stock-exchange-fresh-step-liberalise-economy-2025-01-10/

Massive news for doing business in Ethiopia.

Also big news for KEFI. The ESX finally being live now gives us some certainty in regard to finalising the finer workings of the local investment funding. This will help hugely with liquidity and make the ERNs so much more attractive.

This is all just a diversion and distraction to try to drown out the very positive Q&A. We are clearly on the cusp of this rocket finally lifting off.

Never mind 'this time next year we'll be millionaires' ...... more like this time next month.

Manu, are you just raging that I waited until just before D-day to get involved. All the people that you are convincing that KEFI will go nowhere….. when they listen to you and sell their shares, I’m the guy buying them for buttons, and they will have you to blame when I take their 1,000% profit that they missed out on.

All people have to do is to think for themselves, carry out their own Valuation of KEFI, and decide when they think the TKGM contract is finally likely to be signed.

I have watched for years, and have now decided that it is time to invest heavily. I now take an active interest in KEFI, thus my increase in posts, but I am interested in when the definitive documentation will be signed. Not whether anybody else buys or sells KEFI shares or not. It’s harsh to state it in writing, because I genuinely wish the best for everyone, but the more idiots selling before the signing, the better for me and the more I will be buying.

Anyway, nice to meet you manu17

Crazy, I would need to check to be completely sure, but is the 20% not going to the EG, and in turn they build us a road and provide power? It would be great to get 100%, but there are also real benefits to keeping the EG as a vested party in the success of TK

I don't think you understand how these forums are supposed to work. It is not for 'debate' where one person "wins" and the other person "loses".

The purpose of this forum is that everybody respects each other's opinion, not that they need to argue with each other about them. Instead try bringing some additional information to the table and let everybody make their own mind up about it.

For example I don't care if you value Konso at $5m or $0. I have told you what a typical industry rule of thumb is, and you have disregarded that. That's the end of the need for discussion on it.

You clearly think that my NPV calcs are wrong, and I am more than happy for you to point out where they are wrong, and provide some information or evidence to show why I am wrong and what the correct allowance or rate should be.

Failing that then all you are doing is giving your boring and pessimistic opinion over and over again that everybody else is completely wrong (for even investing in KEFI), but you are completely right...... just because you say so.

Nobody actually cares about what you think. If you want to add to the debate, bring something of substance, not just your 'glass completely empty' opinions.

I'm getting really bored of replying to you, because you are only looking for opportunity to disagree and argue. A typical nominal value for such licenses would be between $1m and $10m. $1m for something high risk, and $10m for something that has previously yielded positive results in a nice safe jurisdiction. For something like Konso, a promising license but in a less-than-perfect (although that is clearly quickly changing) I feel that $5m is a reasonable nominal valuation.

I haven't carried out a JORC compliant modelling and feasibility study on previous exploration or whatever else you might have expected.

But rather than argue with me about it, if you don't think it's worth $5m, then zero it out in your calcs.

Because it is Christmas I have re-ran the NPV calc for you and with Konso valued at nil the NPV is 12.5p at $2,600/oz PoG, or 18.2p at $3,000/oz PoG.

You're welcome

Yea. Hopefully his mum buys him a PS5 for Christmas to keep him occupied, instead of spending his time trying to disrupt on here.