Member Info for Stebo

Opportunistic, with our debts cleared, £6m cash in the bank and KEFI Ethiopia up and running (to carry it's share of KEFI PLC costs and financed from the EthioBonds), I would be very surprised if we see another placing this decade, unless some surprises and new significant delays come out of the woodwork.

It's always a risk though, but I'm hopeful that within 6 weeks the sp level will be such that a placing would only be a dint. Just a pity that we didn't get all these actions across the line in '24 prior to the last placing!

UPshunt "I suppose one day there really will be a financial close. Not today though."

Not today, but the markets are forward looking. I suspect that today is the last day you will ever be able to buy shares for the pacing price of 5.5p.

I also believe that the new ethos of "growing shareholder value", along with the sale of the SA Assets is starting to wash away the placings fear that has plagued KEFI for years. Without the fear of another placing, the KEFI sp would be many multiples of where it is currently at, even pre-de-risked. Hopefully we're moving towards that currently, with actual de-risking just round the corner.

Seeing as Crazytowner has already put his head on the block...

sp / mcap day after ratification? 2p / £165m. Once ratification is done there will be a more comfortable level of risk, and it is a clear indication that there is a plan and route to financial close, and that the ball has finally started rolling

sp / mcap after we agree to sell all SA Assets? Not sure where in the time-line this will be announced, but if the decision is to sell everything, I reckon we'll see offers north of £40m. The fact that Harry has said something and it has happened will also bring some confidence, and the incoming cash will mitigate the risk of future placements (which have plagued KEFI). I would expect an additional 0.5p to be added to the sp (£41m to mcap)

sp / mcap after financial close? Financial close takes this from being a speculative high-risk / high-reward play to being an early investment in a junior gold miner commencing a multi-billion dollar mine. To me this is the hardest sp number to call, because investors can sit down and work out that this is going to be a £1b company once we start selling gold, but the sp will get there gradually over the next year. Due to how aware the market is of KEFI, and Tulu Kapi's potential, there's every chance that we could see panic fomo buying, and hit 5p-7p within a day. Or alternatively, I feel like a majority of current holders have the strategy of buying early and selling upon finance. We'll also see a lot of traders who've bought on ratification in a "buy the rumour and sell the news" type action. That mass selling could mute the re-rate, in which case we might only see 3p-ish in the immediacy after the RNS.

sp / mcap at end of April? My NPV calculations (with 25% jurisdictional risk, and 13% discount for time) are coming out at over £1b (14p per share). If interest in the junior miner turns (as I think it will) then hopefully mcaps of miners will start to closer reflect NPVs. I also think that by the end of April any trading volatility and turmoil in the KEFI sp will have settled down. I would hope for 5p-7p by the end of April, with a more gradual raise towards 10p+ (depending on PoG) as we get closer and closer to TK production.

Once producing our NPV will be more driven by P/E ratios. By that time we'll be churning out £200m a year profit. With a typical P/E ratio of 10 would value us as a £2b company, which is circa 25p per share!!

Ezhik - when the Price of Gold was £1,250!!

Thanks Richard. I hope you don't mind if I add in the mcaps to your sp. I try to value KEFI, and then work out what that sp would be, rather than the other way round.

sp / mcap day after ratification? .7 mcap - £58m

sp / mcap after we agree to sell all SA Assets? .8 mcap £66m

sp / mcap after financial close? 1.3 mcap £107m

sp / mcap at end of April? 1.5 mcap £124m

Personally I'm a lot more bullish than this, but it's good to have your perspective

I'm anticipating bigger and bigger volumes this week.

If we make it past Thursday without ratification, then next week is going to be a spicy one!!

Anybody brave enough to make any predictions....

sp / mcap day after ratification?

sp / mcap after we agree to sell all SA Assets?

sp / mcap after financial close?

sp / mcap at end of April?

I've my thoughts, but I deleted the numbers because I keep getting accused of ramping! I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of others though?

Theanalyzer, the prevailing opinion is that the banks and rest of the consortium are fully on board, with just AFC's ratification being the fly in the ointment. When the EG ratification is completed, that's the sweet spot to get in - low risk of anything derailing the deal, but also before there is wet ink on the contracts that the institutions will need to see before taking their positions.

Stringer, I believe that those KEFI projections (fairly cautious imo) are based on $2,800 too, so plenty of upside

Some juicy big buys doing a nice job of "propping up" the share-price :-)

The naysayers and shorters know they're beat, and one by one they're caving in and going long.

Perhaps they know that the Ethiopian Government HoPR sit on a Tuesday :-b

Themaskedsinger...

"If we are so close to funding why the millions of sells going through. Who is selling these?

If you notice the sp is being propped up on a daily basis."

By propped up, you mean people buying??

You can't have it both ways - claiming that big sells are people in the know exiting, but all the buys are just the share price being "propped up".

I imagine a lot of the sales are completely uninformed traders who took a punt at 0.45ish now selling as their +10% orders get fulfilled. The pressure is coming from the buying side though, from those who're becoming aware that this is potentially the last chance to get in before a gap up to 0.6p.

"propping up for a placing" lol

Very "comforting" that there has been multitudes of meetings with the banks, and everything is still on track for the upcoming time-frames.

"Seller has gone for now? Errrr no they haven't."

Is somebody determined to keep the sp down for a while longer?

Does anybody else find it interesting that our resident balanced and cautious 'LTH' Bonkers disappears off just as the sp starts to get some support. I'm not an expert or studying L2, but a cynic might suspect that a shorter is currently making a tactical closing of their position?

A prolific naysayer is also notably absent from the telegram group. Perhaps they have had their fun, done their damage, and now know that their time is up.

Or maybe I need to take off the tin-foil hat!

Stringer - "5p-10p on start of construction Stebo?"

I think that "start of construction" is only a few months away, and once finance is sorted that everything will start to happen very quickly - they've had long enough to get a plan in place, and finally the rate of progress will be in their hands! Also they will have the pressure of accumulating finance costs - from KEFI start drawing down loaned funds the financial onus will be on to get to generating cash asap.

With that being said I think that when finance is finally closed, there will be significant turmoil in the sp. Perhaps it will smoothly re-rate, but I suspect a lot of volatility with spikes and dips. There are clearly a lot of disgruntled trapped holders who can't let go of the emotions from the last few years, and also a lot of aware investors waiting for this to be de-risked to get involved.

Bottom line is that I think that calling the sp at the start of construction is difficult. Once everything settles down, and KEFI (or PWM / Lyco who'll actually be driving the mine construction) show a bit of competence as a miner, then I think realistic NPV calculations will start to drive the sp.

Hard to call the sp in the next few months, but I would be surprised if we are not well above 5p my Christmas 2026, and if the junior miner sector starts to go on a gold-related bull-run then I wouldn't be shocked by 10p. Tulu Kapi is a multi billion dollar asset that will grow and grow. from 0.5p the sky really is the limit for the sp over the next couple of years in my opinion.

That's all just my opinion though, I'd love to hear the thoughts of others?

Has anybody figured out a gold equivalent RE for all the SA Assets yet? Would like to put this into my calculator to work out what I expect the SA Assets to now sell for.

Manu, you need to get it right every single day, with absolutely nothing to gain

KEFI holders just need you to be wrong once and the returns on our investment will be huge.

Proper upward trend now. I reckon that we've seen the lowest that KEFP sp will ever go.

I'm going to remember fondly these last few months, and the excessive boot-filling that I've managed, when KEFI is producing it's first Tulu Kapi gold and the sp is somewhere between 15p and 20p.

Great timing for Bonkers to finally leave the building (or is that just perhaps a costume change into one of his other personas!)

:-)

Looks like nobody wants to sit this one out over the weekend!

Bonkers, nobody is attacking your character in an attempt to render your arguments irrelevant. In fact I'm not sure that you're even making any points or arguments. Most of what you say is about yourself, or other posters, and very little is about KEFI. Most "attacks" are a mixture of factual observation, and frustration at your continual pollution of this board.

Regarding the calls for you to stick around when this re-rates, considering the time your commit to KEFI I am fairly confident that you are heavily invested, but smart enough to know that a rerate is coming in like the tide. Your vested interest in KEFI is to spread as much fear as possible with the aim of keeping the sp as low as possible pre-rerate, while you are still accumulating.

You are smart enough to know that buying some at 0.6, 0.5 and hopefully 0.4 is still a massive win when KEFI re-rates. You know it's coming, you're not foolish enough to risk sitting on the side-lines, but you want to be averaging in each month as cheap as possible.

Personally I am taking advantage of your efforts and doing the same averaging in as you are, except morally I couldn't bring myself to be getting up to the sort of mischief that you are on here.

Electric Lion,

I suppose my valuations are based on what the Valuation would be if everything goes to plan, that's the starting point, and then work back from there by allowing % deductions (different for different elements) for time and risk.

That 'in production', zero risk position I feel is where there will be the least difference will be between differing views. Working back from that to estimate a Valuation for both today's sp and a post-finance sp, will have a lot more variance due to opinions and optimism.

I would genuinely appreciate it if you would indulge me with your valuation calcs, based on $3,000/oz by production, and jurisdictional risk remaining at the same level as we're currently at? I also tend to use either 160,000oz/year or 2moz over resource lifetime.