Member Info for Stebo

Bonkers, go and look at the RE and DFS again. Look at the cut-offs (based on economically viable at $1,400/oz gold price if I remember right), etc. Look at the early under underground mine exploration, etc.

It is way more likely than not that TK is well over a 3moz mine, and I suspect that you’re intelligent enough to know that.

So why are you spending your weekends on here being facetious and trying to give people a bum-steer regarding TK’s prospects?

PS, still waiting for your share price predictions. Even at 1moz or whatever crazy number you came up with, that’s still got to be about $2b, and we’ll over 15p, no?

There’s every likelihood

Dogstar, you give Harry too much credit. He is not in control of "the numbers" and it's not like he is just deciding how much a $320m mine is going to cost to develop! The finalised lumpsum costs will be what they will be, but there is as much chance of it being less that $320m as over $320m - the $320m will have been a budget estimate for organising finance. If KEFI are wise, they will have erred on the side of caution and final lump sum quotations will hopefully be less than the $320m.

The way the PoG has went, KEFI's profitability has increased by 50%+ since the business case was presented, and we have the Ethioprefs to make up whatever capital difference there is anyway, so I'm not too concerned.

Bonkers, nobody is getting their knickers in a twist.

The reality however is, despite your personal opinions, that KEFI is now in a hugely different place in regard to risk, yet the sp hasn't reflected that.

Here's to enjoying the ride (and exceeding Bonkers expectations) as the market finally start to catch on what's actually happening here.

Winstonwolf, I agree with that. What is starting to frustrate me though is that since the start of the year KEFI has massively de-risked and inherent value should have risen significantly in line with that. Off the top of my head we've had the following:

- Significant resource upgrades and increases at GMCO

- An announcement that GMCO is in the shop window, and therefore the value created there will likely soon be monetised, or at least valued

- AFC approval of loan

- Increased loan amount from $190m to $240m, securing equity in TK for KEFI shareholderes

- TDB approval on increased loan amount

- Award of additional exploration licenses in both Ethiopia and Saudi

- Legal claim / dispute against KEFI dismissed and finalised

- Re-tender for mining contractor, including bringing on BCM with a $23m ERN

- Confirmation of at least $22m of local finance through Ethiobonds

- The community relocation has started, including surveys completed and payouts commencing

- Site establishment

- Security, utilities, camp construction underway

- Access road construction

- AFC ratification

- Well defined timelines to sign-off and full construction launch

- Well defined timelines to production commencement established

- Price of gold up 25%, so KEFI profitability forecast up 50%+

And yet the share-price was pretty much flat until Friday. Ironically the only thing that has got the mcap up, is the resolution of a problem that we previously didn't even know existed!!

The huge progress in the TK development made zero difference to the sp.

The resolving of the finance (TDB agreeing to new loan amount, BCM's ERN, $22m local investment, etc) made zero difference.

The fact that gold is up and therefore KEFI forecast profitability is up over 50% made zero difference.

It seems to me that the only think making a difference to KEFI's AIM Valuation is something that can be used as a play for trading.

It's so short-sighted, and also very frustrating for those of us who took the big risks of buying in early, watching the cards fall in our favour, but it turns out that we could have just waited and bought in after de-risking for a minor premium lol

I'm very envious, and a bit frustrated, for anybody who is buying now. Even though there has been a lower sp, it came with huge risk. I don't think that there has ever been a better 'value' (as in risk:reward) time to be buying KEFI than now. Congratulations (I say through gritted teeth!)

This place is a laugh.

Not hard to see on here who all bought first thing Tue, or earlier in the year, looking for a trade on ratification. They've now sold yesterday and are trying to talk the price down to get loaded up again before the next big leg up when Ratification is formalised lol

Regarding the 'go-to' de-ramp of "a raise is coming"..... KEFI have enough funds to see them through to Aug, based on their monthly burn rate in the last accounts. Since then though their exposure to GMCO costs have massively decreased (due to reduced equity). Also TKGM is now up and running, with Operational Director and Finance Director in place. This also means that there will be a whole team of KEFI staff seconded into TKGM, and therefore TKGM will be picking up their wage bill.

KEFI PLC's cash burn rate will have significantly dropped away, so therefore even though Aug was a worst case scenario, it's more likely to be end of the year before the coffers run dry.

But.... that is before looking at any other sources of finance. KEFI have previously taken on a £4m loan, so that is clearly an option, along with many other sources of finance, including the sale of GMCO (all, or even a part).

A raise is always a possibility, but right now the risk of it is really slim. Even if a raise was planned, we've just discovered that ratification is imminent, and once that's sorted then everything is in KEFI's hands to push on and get sorted. Surely it would make sense to just wait for another month or so (timelines which KEFI have been well aware of and planning for), until post ratification and post signing.

My opinion is that there's a small risk of a placement this year, but if there is going to be one then it will be after financial close and therefore at several pennies. Not buying at these cheap (and de-risked) prices, to wait to buy share in a placement, is a foolish strategy I think.

1.5p? Really?

So only £120m mcap, for a company with $320m finance secured, to build a £multi-billion gold-mine

The way price of gold is going, 15% of GMCO is likely worth close to £120m!!

If KEFI only goes to 1.5p, with TK de-risked, there is something seriously broken on AIM!!

Fantasy, I think that the biggest barrier will be that sentiment. “I can’t see it”, turns into under-value selling, which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy preventing the sp reaching fair value.

FYI, 8p isn’t even fair value, it’s just a comparable value to RIO2’s current valuation. I think that the whole junior mining sector is hugely undervalued, and due a correction.

Assuming RIO2’s 1.3moz at $1,700/oz profit, that’s valuation of $2.2b

Assuming KEFI 1.7moz at $2,000 profit, that’s 85% of $3.4b = $2.9b

So for RIO2’s £230m mcap, you’d expect a KEFI equivalent of over £300m = 4p

You’d expect both to have significant rerates as the get closer to realising actual profitability, but obviously KEFI will do significantly better for current shareholders who can still get in at these levels.

Not sure when construction commenced, but looks like RIO2 has had a nice gradual 4x over the last year. Would be nice to be sitting at say 2p on sign-off, then rise 4x over the next year to half way through construction. 8p by middle of next year sounds reasonable.

Thanks Winston Wolf. I didn't realise that the Telfer resource was added to Havieron.

So £2b and 10moz. So like for like that would be £600m mcap. GGP obviously closer to production, safer jurisdiction, etc. But KEFI with much lower AISC.

Good benchmark.

Lol @ Manu17.

$20m from EG already being spent

$23m from BCM committed to the project

$190m from TDB approved

$50m from AFC approved

$22m secured from local lenders, potentially increasing to $30m

$45m of ERNs available to make up any shortfall

So yes Manu17. Plenty of money secured, ready to go once we need to start spending it in just 7 weeks.

To be fair, I should have mentioned that KEFI only own 85% of their 3moz resource. Although, are you sure about GGP's 10moz? I googled it and got a result telling me 7moz, or 8.4moz AuEqu?

Do they own 100% of the mine? I understood (back in 2020 when I was invested) that they were a minority partner (30%?). Did they buyout Newcrests part of the JV when they bought the Havieron?

So they own a 3moz resource, and have a £2b mcap, with higher AISC than KEFI?

We have a 3moz resource, and a £50m mcap, with a lower AISC than GGP?

Are GGP massively over-valued, or are KEFI massively under-valued?

Resource-wise, what kind of asset (in regard to moz of gold equiv) do GGP have in comparison to KEFI,? And what is their AISC compared to KEFI, or annual profit expectations if it's available

Obviously a safer jurisdiction, but would be interesting to see how they compare at nearly £2b to KEFI at £50m with say 2moz-3moz, and $1,000 AISC, say $300m profit per year.

Great to see the volume and tight spread through.

Upshunt, with the trajectory moving towards finance close, full project launch, and knowing that ratification is now imminent, do you not think that it's far more likely that you would sell half your holding and have to buy it back at 10%(or maybe 100%) more??

Strange comment to make

Bonkers, this is not a complicated proposition.

The resource estimate is there for all to see, and only likely to grow.

The price of gold over the next few years could be conservatively forecast by a child.

We know that KEFI's AISC is likely to be less than $1,000/oz.

The Asset Valuation, P:E ratio, NPV, etc. are not difficult to calculate here. Why are you trying to over-complicate things?

Instead of trying to think of some convoluted reasons why everybody else's valuations are wrong, why don't you give us your sp predictions?

Boners, do you know what "post-finance" means?

Bonkers, you've been told this a thousand times, but you still wilfully ignore it to make a point, which completely invalidates the point you are trying to make.

If a prediction is based on (read this bit carefully) 'following sign off of finance', and finance has not yet been signed off, then it is not possible to test the validity or accuracy of the sp prediction. You cannot say "well that wasn't correct", because the occasion hasn't yet happened.

Do you understand that??

And for what it is worth, they are valuation forecast, not share-price predictions. A valuation can be calculated in a mathematical function, but the shareprice can under or over value it based on market conditions or sentiment. Eventually though the market always corrects itself.

Mate, did you miss my fully broken down calculation?

It's nice to see that Edison are on the same page as me (as 3rd party analysists are typically very conservative, and never stray too far from the current sp normally!), but my forecasts are based on my own calculations.

Just to play your game though I remember that during GGP's rise there were numerous analysist calculations and forecast predicting 20p, 25p, etc. when the sp was 15p-18p. They were still 25p when the sp was nearly 40p (despite being "paid for"), and also turned out to be correct in those instances.

This notion that Edison will undermine their own reputation and competence just because KEFI are paying their fee is a nonsense. It's like paying a mortgage company to carry out a valuation of your house, and then feeling that because you're paying for it that you should be able to dictate what valuation the surveyor arrives at!!

Bonkers, I'm not sure I understand the question, or the point of the question, or the point that you are trying to make???

Is there some kind of Pub Quiz going on that here that I'm not aware of?