Member Info for Stebo

Bonkers, you still completely missed the point. And as I said previously, I'm not going to be ashamed about making an investment decision that I believe in, and then telling other people about what I've discovered and why I think it has such great potential.

"and if I can get more people to realise that then they get to make lots of money out of it, and I get to make lots of money out of it.

That is exactly what makes you a incredibly dangerous posters if listened too , people don't come here to make others rich or offer free financial advice."

Actually I am quite happy to make others rich, and the fact that you seem to think that people come here with an agenda is very telling. I'm not offering any free financial advice, but I am quite happy to share my knowledge of the industry. I have discovered how great an opportunity KEFI is, and I am not going to apologise for wanting to share that opportunity with other people. If I discovered something negative that made me decide to sell, I would also let everybody know. To claim to be a buyer (or at least a holder) and yet be telling everybody else about all the negatives associated with your investment just makes no sense. If it's only got limited upside then sell it and make your money work harder, for less risk, elsewhere.

You keep banging out about how high-risk KEFI is, and you've said that you're selling up at 1p. That's only a 40% upside, and surely not worth it for the huge risk you say that KEFI carries. So why are you here? It makes no sense, and looks incredibly suspicious.

And regarding your post count, it's only curious people like you that care about things like that, and the only reason others pull you about it on here is because you post so much drivel.

Still waiting for you to post your NPV calcs btw, and you still haven't accepted that 1.05moz reserve @ $1,250pog is not 1.05moz reserve @ $3,000+ pog

I ran a few calcs on cut-off grades. To get the same returns at $3,300/oz, as we would have gotten from 0.45g/t at $1,250/oz, we will be able to process material right down to 0.17g/t cut-off. The impact that alone will have to the Reserves is crazy.

Bonkers, do you know how an Ore Reserve Estimate is arrived at from an MRE? The two most important input figures are the price of gold and the mine design (and how efficient it is).

Since the 2015 Ore Reserve calcs, the price of gold has nearly tripled, and the mine has been completely redesigned. While 1.05moz is the latest calculated Ore Reserve, it is completely irrelevant when it comes to estimating how much gold will be mined from TK. You know that, I know that, and everybody reading knows that. By continuing to argue otherwise again just shows a bit more behind your mask, in that you are a contrarian and a disruptor.

And you are suggesting that we are two sides to the one coin, and accusing me of being ultra-positive - the difference between us is that I am an actual investor. And yes, I do have a vested interest in the sp rising, because I believe wholeheartedly that it is undervalued, and if I can get more people to realise that then they get to make lots of money out of it, and I get to make lots of money out of it. The fact that you are suggesting that is something that I should be ashamed of is just silly. If I didn't believe in KEFI then I wouldn't have invested in it.

That only begs the question then as to why you always feel the need to be so negative on here. And whether you admit it or not, you subtly sow seeds of fear and suspicion, in attempts to dissuade buyers, and encourage sellers. It is not the behaviour of an investor who is playing with a straight bat. If you don't believe in KEFI then it begs the question as to why you are here. If you do believe in KEFI, and think it is a good enough prospect for your own money, then why are you so continually negative and don't want others to make the same investment decision that you have?

There are only two outcomes. Either you're not an investor, and just trying to talk the sp down, or you are a shareholder but still accumulating and therefore have a selfish vested interest in prolonging a suppressed price. Neither option is very wholesome or beneficial to the group of investors on here.

Still waiting for you to post your valuation calculations by the way, or do you accept my calcs that 1.05oz would still be 10p?

Bonkers, nobody is debating what the 2015 DFS said.

Have you missed everything that has been discussed though about the revised mine design in 2017, and the fact that the 2015 Ore Reserves was based on $1,250/oz?

Bonkers you're not balanced.

You spend your days trying to find negatives. You look between the lines of every RNS for a doomsday scenario (such as ARTAR are forcing KEFI to sell their 15%, and they'll get nothing for it), and every time somebody comes with positivity you dedicate yourself to trying to shoot them down.

Why do you put so much effort into critiquing everybody else's (unless they are negative, which you never seem to challenge), while claiming to have your own well informed and balanced calculations and forecasts that you won't share with anybody?

Doze, I suppose at a minimum it will pull bonkers mask back a bit. He is clearly here with nefarious intentions.

He spends all weekend trying to undermine a reasonable NPV calculation, by arguing that he has it all figured out and that his calculations are based on 1.05moz.

Then he refuses to post his calculations, but says that his upper limit is 1p, despite the fact that the sums based on his own figures come out at over 10p.

If you've calculated that something is worth 10p, you'd need to be pretty bonkers to sell it for 1p.

In reality though we all know that both the 1.05moz reserves, and the 1p forecast, are all just attempts to deramp and spread FUD.

I've taken the liberty, based on my message you quoted...

....Take 1.05moz .

Take todays price of gold of $3,300

Take an AISC of circa $1,000

1.05moz @ ($3,300 - $1,000) = $2.415b

less the finance liability of $300m (EG's $20m becomes 20% equity) = $2.115b

KEFI will hold minimum of 80% (possibly 85%) = $1.692b for KEFI = £1.3b

There are 8b shares in issue, but if we divide that by 8.25b to be conservative = 15.75p per share

Add in a factor of say 10% for time (which will obviously decrease as we get to production) = 14.18p

Add in a risk allowance for jurisdiction, of say 20% (very conservative - 1 in 5 of it going tits up - unlikely) = 11.35p

Add in a general allowance for sp not always matching NPV of say another 10% = 10p

So even at your completely incorrect 1.05moz, that is a forecast sp of 10p. Bang on what Harry and Eddison are saying!

Bonkers, you also say that your own calculations serve no purpose to anybody but yourself. That is a real cop-out and completely against the ethos of this forum for knowledge and idea sharing.

The cynic in my would suggest that you have zero interest in discussing the NPV. Actually you spotted that my Reserve Estimate of 1.7moz was the same as the 2015 MRE, and thought that you would try to undermine my calculations. This is coming across as nothing more than an attempt at deramping Bonkers, rather than useful discussion.

I have taken a reasonable amount of my time to reply to you, I don't think that it is too much to ask that you post your NPV calcs based on your uber-conservative 1.05moz Reserve Estimate (unless you've revised that upwards following what we've discussed)?

Bonkers, you're not going to get the definitive answer that you are looking, because the landscape has change hugely in the last decade, but nobody has done the work to update the DFS. The reason for this is because the whole point of the DFS is to reach the threshold of "commercially viable". Proving up that is is "really, really commercially viable" isn't worth the money.

But, this is the junior explorer / miner sector - it's not Tesco or Apple that you are investing in here. It is a speculative play, and therefore the whole point of the game is speculation. So we take what we do know, and add what we can reasonably estimate.

Things we do know:

- firstly you make a reasonable point about ore dilution, which means that your 1.05moz is actually more like 0.95moz (you missed a bit of deramping there!)

- the figure of 1.05moz is based on commercial viability, using a crappy mine design, and a gold price of $1,200

- we now have a much better mine design

- todays price of gold is $3,222

- I have been banging on for nearly a year about what the rising price of gold will be doing for KEFI's cut-off grades, and how it will hugely be increasing the reserve

- We know that there is a conservative 1.7moz of gold resource in the ground, at 0.45g/t, and that it costs $3/t to mine it

I can't point you to a JORC DFS, showing 1.7moz resource. But likewise, when you point to the ten year old DFS showing 1.05moz it is obviously completely irrelevant. At best it is a very worst case scenario (gold price 'end of days style' crash, and loads of issues with the mine). But I could easily have posted a best case scenario, including a million plus oz from underground mine, Konso, forecast GMCO profitability, etc.

The reality is that the answer is prob somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, taking the 1.7moz resource, knowing that it is at an economically viable 0.45g/t cut-off, and assuming that as a reserve, is a fairly middle of the road approach.

It is really refreshing to see somebody actually looking at the numbers, and I genuinely appreciate the critique.

Still very keen to hear your NPV, whether that be based on 1.05moz, or something more realistic.

As you say though Bonkers, there is a huge difference in 700,000oz of gold at $3,400/oz. Basing your starting point on a completely irrelevant Ore Reserve of 1.05 is going to completely undermine your calcs.

Bonkers, I am well aware of the difference in a MRE and Ore Reserve. You seem to not understand how one relates to the other though.

There is a minimum of 1.7moz of gold, down to a cut-off grade of 0.45g/t. I have just explained to you how that gold at 0.45g/t is now economically viable to mine, due to gold prices. Therefore if somebody was to do a refreshed Ore Reserve Estimate then it would be a minimum of 1.7moz.

Also, as explained to you, (and detailed within the Lycopodium report if you bothered to read it all), they only looked at the cost side of the DFS based on a revised mine design. The MRE and ORE were left as is, for the purposes of comparison.

Bonkers, I actually replied to your weekend of questions before I seen your latest post. Here's a few more relevant points to your latest post.

A) Your 140,000 oz is out dated. It is now 191,000oz and 8 year production = 1.52moz minimum

B) There is no missing 0.7moz. In fact 1.7moz is a really conservative estimate

C) The 1.7moz does not include anything for the under-ground mine, so do you agree that there is huge upside potential?

D) The open-pit mine is still open at depth and in three directions, therefore even the open-pit mine is likely to grow significantly.

E) There will also very likely be satellite deposits within the license area.

Perhaps you could now answer my one question..... even with your ridiculous Ore Reserve figure of 1.05moz, given a gold price of $3,400 and an AISC circa $1,000/oz, what NPV value does your calculations give for KEFI?

Bonkers, just to reply to you (before your other account took over the message board)......

Quick background, for everybody's benefit... There are effectively two mines at TK - and open-pit mine and an underground mine. For the open-pit mine there has been three studies done:

1) Nyota in 2012 - they had an Indicated Resource of 1.05moz. KEFI looked at this and realised that it was wrong (which was why they bought TK), in the following ways: they missed 16,000m of drilling data, which wasn't included in the DFS, didn't correctly understand the geology, used old mapping and modelling software, errors in the calculations, etc.

2) KEFI then carried out their own study, along with further exploration, which increased this Indicted Resource from 1.05moz to 1.62moz, and subsequently 1.86moz. KEFI then got an independently JORC compliant (conservative) DFS carried out, which gave a MRE of 1.72moz. This 1.72moz is the Mineral Resource Estimate, which is based on using cut-off grades of 0.45g/t gold above 1,400m RL and 2.50g/t gold below 1,400m RL. The 1.05moz Ore Reserve Estimate that Bonkers seems to be using I presume is based on this, as Snowden / Epoch (engineer doing the DFS) then did a pit design based on the viable ore that could be commercially extracted. This, at the time, was based on a commercial gold price of $1,250/oz.

3) In 2017, Lycopodium looked at the pit design and tore it up. They did a refreshed mine design that is a lot more efficient (does in 7 years, what Snowden's design took 10 years to mine, and for less cost). Plant capacity went from 1.2mtpa to 1.5mtpa, allowing they to treat more lower grade stockpile ore. For the purposes of the report, and to allow comparison between the 2015 DFS, the geology and Ore Reserve Estimate numbers were let 'as-is'.

So what Bonkers is referring to, is presumably the Ore Reserve, which is based on 1.72moz Mineral Resource Estimate, a poor and inefficient pit design (high AISC), and a commercial gold price of $1,250/oz. In reality, there is a 1.86moz Mineral Resource Estimate in the open-pit mine, which is based on a 0.45g/t cut-off. There is also a whole underground mine, with an expected 1moz+ (again historic, so based on low cut-offs).

The reason that I have used 1.7moz is to be ultra conservative. The 1.7moz comes from only the open-pit mine, and at the conservative 1.7moz that was in the Snowdon DFS as the MRE. I appreciate that this is not the Ore Reserve, but the Ore Reserve is now completely irelevant as we have a new pit design, and completely different landscape in regard to the PoG. The reason I chose 1.7moz, is because we know that there is at least 1.7moz at cut-off grades of 0.45g/t. 0.45g = 0.015oz, @ gold prices of $3,400/oz equals $53.97/t . Mining and processing costs are circa $3/t, therefore, even at these previously disregarded grades, there is $51/t profit, so we know a minimum of 1.7moz will be mined.

More like 3moz in reality though. Hope

Bukowski750 - would a simple link to an article not have been suffice?

Feels like you're just here to disrupt and clutter the message board, like an temu version of Bonkers.

Lol at all the placing talk. May as well just wave a big “if just sold and hope that the sp will go back down, so I can get another bit of the cherry at Ratification” 😂

Last year we had to listen to cried of “a placement is coming” from about May until Dec, when it turned to “see, I told you so” 😂😂

Next raise (if GMCO doesn’t sell) will be well over 2p, and hopefully over 5p 👍🏻

Bonkers, once you e found gold, it doesn’t go anywhere…. In fact the best place to find more gold is right beside somewhere where you’ve already found some. 👍🏻

Bonkers, go and look at the RE and DFS again. Look at the cut-offs (based on economically viable at $1,400/oz gold price if I remember right), etc. Look at the early under underground mine exploration, etc.

It is way more likely than not that TK is well over a 3moz mine, and I suspect that you’re intelligent enough to know that.

So why are you spending your weekends on here being facetious and trying to give people a bum-steer regarding TK’s prospects?

PS, still waiting for your share price predictions. Even at 1moz or whatever crazy number you came up with, that’s still got to be about $2b, and we’ll over 15p, no?

There’s every likelihood

Dogstar, you give Harry too much credit. He is not in control of "the numbers" and it's not like he is just deciding how much a $320m mine is going to cost to develop! The finalised lumpsum costs will be what they will be, but there is as much chance of it being less that $320m as over $320m - the $320m will have been a budget estimate for organising finance. If KEFI are wise, they will have erred on the side of caution and final lump sum quotations will hopefully be less than the $320m.

The way the PoG has went, KEFI's profitability has increased by 50%+ since the business case was presented, and we have the Ethioprefs to make up whatever capital difference there is anyway, so I'm not too concerned.

Bonkers, nobody is getting their knickers in a twist.

The reality however is, despite your personal opinions, that KEFI is now in a hugely different place in regard to risk, yet the sp hasn't reflected that.

Here's to enjoying the ride (and exceeding Bonkers expectations) as the market finally start to catch on what's actually happening here.