Member Info for Stebo

"What i struggle to comprehend m8 is people like you who come out with tripe like "the risk is minimal " when IMHO there's risk coming out of every orifice when one considers there was a recent civil war, they have to construct a security camp, and they have to move circa 300 buildings ?? to dig a big hole in the ground. But that is just my entirely personal opinion!"

Civil War is over, constructing a security camp happens with every mine, and moving the community is enshrined in law and progressing with no issues. Digging a big hole in the ground is not that complex, especially when it's open-pit.

If you want something with minimal risk, just find a good long-term savings account paying you 4% interest a year. KEFI does carry some risk, but then that's to be expected when you could easily see 1,000% returns in the next year.

The risk isn't for everybody, but every PLC will have their own risk profile. At least with KEFI you could be very well rewarded for the relatively small risk you're taking.

Bukowski750, this isn't a prediction. It is a calculation of fair value. It might be years before the market correctly values KEFI, or it might get wrapped up in excitement and over-shoot to 20p in the next 6 months. Nobody really knows what the market sentiment will be, but we can figure out what an accurate Valuation is. There is now minimal risk, clear costs, defined reserves and we have a good idea what gold price we will be selling at.

If you struggle to comprehend that, then there's not a lot I can do for you I am afraid.

You are right though about failure being the norm, but when that 'one in a hundred' actually do it, it is spectacular. It has taken 10 years (and a lot on shareholder money!), but we are finally on the cusp. If you still think that there's a chance that Tulu Kapi might not happen, then it's clearly not for you. For everybody else, this is a really special moment in time that the most of us have waited years for.

Rocket, also worth noting that those numbers are incredibly conservative, and come from a DFS a decade old and based on a gold price of $1,250.

I would be very confident that the reserves will at least triple at Tulu Kapi. With the price of gold above $3,000, then everything in the MRE (1.9moz) becomes economically viable to mine, and there is an expected 1moz in the underground mine. That is before even considering satellite deposits and the fact that the open-pit mine is still open in several directions.

The potential here is mind-blowing

Shotgunmike, look at mcap, not share-price (which is mcap divided by number of shares)

GGP have over 13b shares in issue, KEFI is 8b. So if KEFI got to the same mcap as GGP it would mean a KEFI share price of 20p, as opposed to GGP's 12p.

ShotgunMike, sentiment on AIM is fickle and goes both ways. There's a good chance that once KEFI sp re-rates, that sentiment (and greed!) will cause it to over-shoot (GGP style?).

stringer01, you mean over the recent presentation on the website? I am talking about the Webinar that KEFI proposed might happen.

Q. When will you hold your next webinar?

A. We have elevated our disclosure plans (and shareholders expectations’ in respect thereof) way beyond regulatory requirements. Anything other than an RNS is not required from a regulatory viewpoint and anything “extra” like a webinar or a website Q&A is sometimes impossible because the Company is “pregnant with about-to-be-disclosed material information”.

And, of course, if the company informed shareholders that it is pregnant with undisclosed material information, that of itself is an unclear disclosure which is unfair and unhelpful to shareholders. It sometimes takes weeks for multiple significant counterparties to approve a KEFI RNS.

So…frankly it has been a frustrating struggle recently to slot in a webinar due to the large number of milestones to report in recent months in particular. We like being transparent with the Q&A and with Webinars but that enthusiasm must be tempered by regulatory rules and guidelines.

We’ll time the next Webinar after taking advice from the NOMAD in particular. It may be necessary to change its format and, for instance, invite one of the independent research analysts to present their refreshed deep-dive report (after meeting senior in-country management) and filter questions on sensitive areas.

I imagine that currently KEFI is quite "pregnant with about-to-be-disclosed material information" lol

I would love to see KEFI "invite one of the independent research analysts to present their refreshed deep-dive report (after meeting senior in-country management) and filter questions on sensitive areas. "

Embassy, not EG!

KEFI recently said that their next Webinar would take the form of an analyst giving a presentation, to protect the BOD from being questioned about insider things that they can’t talk about.

I wonder if Orior and Harry meeting EG has something to do with that!

On your risks though:

Financing: 90% (syndicate in place, financing package largely agreed). You're still saying that there is a 1 in 10 chance of this not happening. I would say that at this stage it's more like 1 in 20 max, so I would be more like 95%

Regulatory: 70% (permits granted, but Ethiopia remains unpredictable). I think that the fact that this is Ethiopia works in our favour. If this was the UK you'd have a hundred different government departments and environmentalist groups to satisfy. In Ethiopia if the government want something done, then that's what's happening. Again I'd say that this is 1 in 20 at a push, so 95%

Operational build: 60% (project fully designed and engineered, execution risk remains). This is a bigger risk, but at 60% that is nearly 50:50. There's a risk that some kind of ground condition could occur that would make it more expensive, or perhaps prohibit the under-ground mine, but for an open-pit mine it is pretty low. I think that 60% is far too low. Maybe 10%-15% of it having an impact, but more like 1%-2% of it being critical. For this exercise we could call it 90%

Company governance: 70% (past delays but strong recent delivery and strategy). This is prerogative, but I don't buy into the narrative that there have been past delays - this is how long it takes to launch an multi-billion pound mine, and I think a lot of LTH had unrealistic expectations when they got involved. The fact that we retain 85% equity is astonishing and I actually think that there is no reason to consider this a risk. We also have Lycopodium on board who will effectively be running things anyway.

Geopolitical: 70% (Ethiopia improving but still carries risk premium). Similar risk to Egypt, etc. Not perfect, but I also think that it's a bit much to consider it to be 30% likely (nearly 1 in 3) that there will be an issue to derail TK. We've already had wars, kidnaps, and covid and we're not derailed yet! I'd say more like 85% personally.

Even ignoring concurrency (ie geo-political, would potentially impact finance or regulatory, etc), then it's more like :

95% x 95% x 90% x 85% = 70%

I work the risk out differently, but 70% is in the right ball-park, at this stage imo. Once finance is closed out obviously that risk falls awa, and when we're started Major Works, then regulatory mostly falls away, etc, etc.

MF2017, I don't necessarily disagree with your risk-values, but your calculation for working out the impact isn't right. A lot of these risks are 'concurrent' risks. Ie they're not all separate risks.

It's like saying there is a 40% chance of rain tomorrow, a 30% chance of hail and a 10% chance of snow, so therefore there is a 98.8% chance of precipitation. In reality there is only a 40% chance,

The other issue with your calculation is that analysists will have already taken a discount for time and jurisdiction risk, so that is already in the 6p. If their calculations were risk free then it would just be "reserves X (price of gold - AISC) x 85% equity" which would be about £3.8b mcap and 46p

So you're duplicating the same risks over and over again, and then applying them to a number that has already made allowance for risk.

And 1.5p will not be a good result. NPV for Tulu Kapi right now is 8p, plus at least another 1p for GMCO.

Anything less than about 7p is a pretty poor result, 8p-9p is where you'd expect at this stage of the game, and 10p-12p is going well. Anything beyond 12p would just be market fomo at this stage of the game imo.

Stringer "Hi Mr.B I don't want Kefi to fail I have skin in the game. But I've been watching the management fail for the past year since I bought in on the assurance Major works october 2024. Come off the rails a bit since eh?"

I'd a good laugh at this one. Plenty of us have been here over 5 years. Things since October 2024 have actually been going really really well. There has been more progress in the last 6 months than the previous 6 years.

It's more a case of, the train has finally been put onto the rails, and is about to now leave the station!

MF2017, I'd love to see your calculations.

What price of gold are you averaging across the next few years for instance? One thing I would say, which you touched on, is that AIM can really under or over value. I presume your 6p is based on AIM significantly undervaluing KEFI, because at 140koz-190koz per year, $3000/oz PoG and 8.25b shares, the only way your calculations will be getting such low sp forecast and such low likelihoods is if you have huge huge risk factors applied?

Something to keep in mind is that AIM can also over-value companies, in particular those on a rise. When KEFI goes from 0.5p to 5p, you can be sure that it will also over-shoot, so if it should realistically rise to 12p, that AIM FOMO could take it to 20p (or 40p like GGP!) before crashing back to 12p.

Would love to see your calculations though.

Mr B, he runs hot and cold. Suspicions that he is a trader, who's sentiment changes depending on whether he has just bought or sold, are completely baseless and nothing more than circumstantial ;-b

Bukowski, that is the first sensible post I've seen from you (I leave you unblocked for humour).

Yes, what we have genuinely is that unbelievable. The stars really have truly aligned in a once in a lifetime event:

- Acquisition of a HUGE mine

- Retaining a minimum of 80% equity

- Raising $300m of finance

- Getting the government fully on-board and driving the project

- All at a time when a country is transitioning into a fully developed country, with modernised trading laws and a security threat similar to Egypt (where Centamin operated!)

- At a time when we are finally seeing a correction in gold-prices, which you would fully expect to lead to a correction in the Valuation of miners

- And due to historic sceptics and trauma, the share-price refuses to believe what is right in front of it.

I fully expect that in years to come, when future emerging miners are discussing 'what could be', people will be linking back to the KEFI sp action between 2025 and 2027, and how they did 1,000% in a month, and went on to go from a £50m mcap to well over a £billion.

Not to late to get onboard Bukowski, and become part of the story. Already I can imagine the conversations at the 10p party..... "hey, remember that guy Bonkers who used to be on LSE, I wonder what ever happened to that guy"

Again, what are these flags supposed to be highlighting? What is it that you're paranoid about?

And FWIW, what is it that you are flagging up. What dastardly plan do you think it is that anybody that you are "flagging" is up to?

Are you suggesting that this is some kind of elaborate pump and dump attempt that the KEFI BoD, myself and Crazytowner are up to? That the whole syndicate, AFC loans, government ratifications, etc is all just an elaborate scam to get people to buy junk shares so that we can pump the price up and then sell??

What actually is it that offends you so much about shareholders sharing knowledge with a bit of positivity? You're welcome to burry your head in the sand around the Valuations and sell for 1p, but what are you on about "red-flags". Do you also suffer from paranoia? Or is it a case that you feel bullied here (because everybody disagrees with you, although that is perhaps just because you're wrong ), and therefore you just rage against any positivity?

Bonkers, I would say that a lot of people within the precious metals mining sector are well aware of KEFI and are heavy investors. That knowledge and experience, which they typical market player doesn't have, is a huge edge.

Perhaps instead of being so cynical you should take advantage of the fact that you maybe don't really know what you're talking about, but perhaps others actually do.

Bonkers, you just can't see it for looking. You're pointing to jurisdiction as if that's a bad thing. If this was in Australia or Canada, the sp would already be at 5p+.

The angle here is the fact that it was huge risk: huge return.

The risk is now mostly gone, but the huge returns are still there for the taking. Tulu Kapi is now happening. We've got the finance, we've got the government on side, and we've even timed it with a historic bull run on the price of gold.

You don't invest in a company based on how "good" it is..... you invest in a company based on how undervalued it is. The asseys are there, the numbers and calculations have been worked out. They're all incredibly conservative, with nothing but upside potential. There is no longer any debating it - KEFI is worth at least a £billion, and still has a market cap of £50m. Previously there was an argument about the risk element, which you could have debated meant that a conservative valuation was much lower. The risk of Tulu Kapi not happening is now all but gone.

All that's left is for the market to catch on!

Crazytowner, I've been on a few similar rides, including the rise with GGP (discovery as opposed to mine launch though). My biggest mistake has always been to be influenced by others who can't see the bigger picture. Previously I have had to convictions that I am right, ran the calculations to prove up projections, but the prevailing notion of "there's no way that will actually happen" has caused me to doubt myself, de-risk and rob myself of being incredibly wealthy.

It's a lesson I have learned, and a mistake that I won't be making with KEFI. The consequences of the buying and selling decisions you make now, have an exponential impact on your future gains.

As I said Bonkers, I'm not doing your research for you, and no matter what I post you'll find some reason why 'it's different this time', or that doesn't apply.

The reality is that facts and figures, the value of gold, the volume in the ground, the cost to extract and process it - those are all binary numbers that give an actual Valuation. You are arguing against this, and the best you have is "I just don't see it", or "it's not that often that happens". Perhaps you can just accept that you are narrow-minded, and simply can't wrap your head around the reality, because you've been conditioned by sitting in KEFI for years at less than 2p, and now anything more than that would give you a nose bleed.

This is not some kind of ramping, or speculating about how there's likely to be xmoz in the underground mine, how much GMCO will be work, or how likely we are to strike at Konso and the other GMCO assets. This is factual valuation, of actually discovered reserves, at lump-sum quoted costs, on a project that has had approvals from all syndicate members including banks and government. This is not some pie in the sky estimate.

I'm simply telling you to open your eyes. Take ten minutes to do your own calculations - those 10 minutes could genuinely change your life forever!!