Member Info for Stebo

Fantasy, I am here to look after my own interest, just not at the expense of everybody else (unlike some).

Instead of lazy abuse, feel free to critique what I have said, and raise any counter-points, or errors in what I have said. That would educate me and everybody else. That is how this place is supposed to work - not just a barrage of trying to sway opinion one direction or another. It's a knowledge sharing platform, and I was trying to share some knowledge because not everybody understands how the price of gold impacts cut-off grades, nor realises the purpose of a DFS or that our DFS is essentially now a relic.

What is promising though, is that if Tulu Kapi was commercially viable at $1,250/oz price of gold, and a 1moz reserve, everybody can work out what it means to be in an environment where the price of gold is $3,300 (and rising), and what a 3moz reserve would mean for Valuation and profitability.

What bit of that is ramping?

It's bringing context to the 2015 DFS, and it is explaining the impact that $3,300/oz gold prices have on cut-off grades and economic feasibility.

Why do you have an issue with sharing knowledge? Is it just because it is information that will positively impact KEFI's Valuation?

If the DFS had been carried out at $3,300/oz, and the current price of gold was $1,250, I would be raising the same issue with a warning concern - would you have a problem with that?

Rob, is that "introduction to GMCO" new? Don't think I've read it before

Minthrel, just for context around the 1.1moz that KEFI bases it's feasibility study on, as I'm sure you know that was from 2015, with a cut-off based on the price of gold allowance being $1,250/oz. The cut-off is therefore 0.5g/t. At todays gold price that 0.5g is worth $1,345.60, and from what I remember out mining cost is circa $3.40/t!. As you can see, at today's prices, it is now economically viable to be mining and processing down to much much lower cut-off grades, which would significantly increase the Reserves figure if somebody was to pay to re-do the study. I think KEFI could easily economically mine and process all of the indicated and inferred 1.7moz at today's PoG. On top of that, the mine is open in various directions, and it would be incredibly surprising if the mineralisation doesn't continue beyond the surveyed area. That upside is unknow, but there is definitely further upside that will be discovered at we further explore.

Add to that the under-ground mine, estimated at a further 1moz. The last time that was looked at it was stated that unless the price of gold fell below $900/oz, then the IRR would be at least 40%, making it viable - I can't see the price of gold dropping below $900/oz any time soon!!

Vox's view on it is ...

"Even the bankers’ models show recoveries at 94%.”

Overall the resource rings in at 1.7 million ounces of gold, although at this stage only a million has been included in the bankable study. And drilling out even more ounces when the time comes ought not to be too much of a challenge either.

The second to last hole drilled by the company intercepted 90 metres of ore grading 2.8 grams gold, a clear signpost to continuing mineralization at depth.

The general speculation is that there might be another million ounces there at least, and maybe more.

Be that as it may, it’s the million ounces in the study which will get mined first – and profitably."

I still don't think people fully comprehend the exponential impact that higher gold prices are having to Tulu Kapi's valuation. With relatively fixed AISC, every increase in gold price is straight onto the bottom line, plus increases the size of the resource.

Personally I fully expect a minimum of 3moz by the time all is said and done at Tulu Kapi

Stringer - what valuation model are you basing that assertation on?

I find it hard to believe that a company who will be pumping out hundreds of millions of dollars a year in profit, would only be valued at £100m macp?

Crazy, raise was announced at 0.55, and I could sell for 0.57. That’s all there was to it.

Nothing to do with KEFI’s prospects, or my valuation of TK, etc.

As ones have said it was a risk (all be it a small one), and I had to buy back at 0.55 (I was expecting slightly lower), so it didn’t really pay off much.

I didn’t have the balls to sit on the sidelines for too long though - that’s where the big risk was imo.

Crazy, I’m here to make money. I was online as soon as the placing RNS was released, read that it was at 0.55p and seen I could sell immediately for 0.57p.

If I was talking the share up for weeks, and had then sold at 0.7p, all while saying that I expected 5p, that would be disingenuous. The placing sucked, and I was trying to mitigate the damage it did to my holding. As I said I am in KEFI to make money, but I’m not going to be underhand about it, or encourage others to do one thing while I’m doing another.

When I was out and hoping to buy back in as low as possible, I was still in here looking for the positives and hypothesising about reasons and rationale for the raise. I could have easily joined in with all the KEFI bashing in the hope of getting a lower buy in price, but I’m not like that.

I also don’t blindly follow KEFI like some football club and feel that they can do no wrong. I’d encourage ever to be pragmatic about KEFI. I will sell KEFI if I think that the sp is over-value. It’s not some religion that I will blindly follow. Likewise if there’s a reason that the sp is going to dip, I will try to be out of KEFI for that fall. Long term though KEFI is only going one direction, and that gamble on the placing nearly didn’t play out, because if didn’t fall that much, and I very quickly bought back in at 0.55 rather than risk waiting for a few weeks to see if it will fall sooner.

Not sure why I’ve to explain myself, but it was a good chance to encourage everybody to be pragmatic about KEFI, and not to get emotional about it - both negatively and positively.

DYOR, run the numbers, take actions, have patience.

Mr.B I'll take that on board.

I don't filter anybody, as reading nonsense posts and then disregarding them doesn't cost me a thought, but if people are frustrated at me humouring Bonkers with a response then, I'll ignore him going forward. In fact he might even get the honour of being the only person I've blocked!

Bonkers

"Your credibility as a poster is shot to bits.

Ramping. Yes one of the biggest rampers on lse

Predictions and timelines , never got one right

Moaning about traders. Yet traded himself

I'm amazed there's still a few that take all your b.s seriously.

And that's before we talk about the 500 shares you brought, the admittance you are only here to wind people up etc"

You really do need some help mate.

a) I don't post here looking credibility, I am here to share thoughts and knowledge

b) I'm not sure you know what ramping it.

c) I don't post predictions, I post calculated Valuations, which are based on post-events (which haven't happened yet) so I an not sure how you can say they're right or wrong

d) I don't moan about traders like you, I laugh about how blatantly obvious it is

e) I don't care about whether people agree, or disagree or take me serious. I'm here to discuss rationally, and hope that others do disagree with me and challenge my own bias, etc. I know that LSE seems to be the majority of your social interactions, but this isn't some sort of society or popularity contest. I'm not here to "win" arguments, or under any sort of illusion that doing so would make me in any way superior or more popular :-/

f) I've no idea what you are on about 500 shares. I sold all my holding and have bought it all back plus an additional 800k shares over the last week. And I'm not trying to wind anybody up - it was a conversation about people's average prices.

Genuinely Bonkers - this forum seems to be an addiction for you, which is clearly not beneficial for your health. There is more to life than spending your days online being a contrarian / laughingstock for other people's amusement. Chances are next week will be quiet - why not take a break from LSE (on all your accounts).

Regarding the timeline, the key thing with the completion of the fixed price costing. That takes one month, and once complete has a one month expiry date, so that will drive the entire time-line. That couldn't be commenced until the AFC ratification was in place, because there would have been a risk of ratification not being finalised before the one-month validity period expired.

Therefore the commencement of the fixed-price costing will have been given the go-ahead upon AFC ratification. This will have been on the 1st May at the earliest (when the committee approved ratification) or the 13th May at the latest (when it was formally ratified). Therefore any day now (between 1st June and 13th June)the fixed price offer will be landing, and the contract will need to be signed within a month.

We also have to take into account the fact that this has all been sitting oven-ready for a long time, and that everybody is chomping at the bit to get started. Therefore Lycopodium might only take 3 weeks to get the price back, and the sign-off can be the day after the offer is received and doesn't need to take a month.

I would therefore presume the following:

Worst case:

Instruction to proceed with fixed price offer - 13th May

Receipt of fixed price offer - 13th June

Sign-off - 12th July

Best cast:

Instruction to proceed with fixed price offer - 6th May (date of KEFI RNS)

Receipt of fixed price offer - 2nd June

Sign-off - w/c 16th June

I'll be keeping a pretty close ear to the ground from the second half of June, and if I can get an end of June pay-day top-up before the sign-off I expect that it will be my last at these crazy low prices!

Bonkers, what drugs are you actually on?

I don't call out people for trading. I call out people for trying to influence sentiments one direction, while trading the other direction.

And there is no such thing as selling at a loss. When the sp going down you've already lost, you've just lost value of shares as opposed to value of cash, so it makes zero difference when you sell. I sold at 0.57 because I knew (along with everybody else) that the sp would very likely drop to at least 0.55. And that has let me buy more shares for the same money. I was hoping it would maybe get to 0.52-0.53, but when I seen that there was strong buying I got back in again at 0.55p and bagged a few additional shares. When KEFI hits 10p those will pay for a nice holiday somewhere.

And what are you banging on about ramping? I gave my opinion on KEFI's prospects, which I think are phenomenal, but if there is an opportunity to accumulate a few extra shares in the short term I'm going to do that, and I'd encourage everybody else to do the same if they can stomach the risk of it. Unlike you, I have an opinion based on facts, not based on my current trading position and whether I want to encourage the price upwards or downwards.

Why do you have a problem with that. This isn't some kind of religion where it is considered unfaithful to sell shares.

My average is now 0.55. I sold everything the second the placement was announced (managed to get 0.57) and bought them all back at 0.55 - not a huge win, but I picked up a few additional shares for my trouble.

I didn't get as much as I hoped selling, and the sp didn't fall as low as I thought it might have.

Unlike some on here though, I didn't feel the need to spend my days fearmongering and trying to talk the sp down before buying back in.

lol at how bonkers / bukowski knows he has been caught on and is now taking the **** out of himself for his fake ghetto lingo

that stereotyping (along with all his prejudice and derogatory comments about nigerian banks, etc.), would have me asking myself some searching questions, if i was him.

Some absolute desperation on here. Will soon just be the "naysayers" all just chittering to each other, while actual PI just sit back content and patiently waiting on the windfall. :-)

Winstonwolf - we appreciate your technical analysis.

Keep up the good work.

Tick-tock bonkers. The share-price is starting to get away from you. Maybe it's time to admit defeat and accept that you're no longer getting in sub 0.6.

Bonkers trying desperately this morning to get the sp down below his limit buy. Must be nearly 20 negative posts between his various accounts just this morning.

He was hoping for a dip 10% below placing price this morning, but instead got a positive RNS.

Bonkers, just buy. The 0.05p difference isn’t worth all this nonsense, and everybody else can’t wait for an end of all this faux-negativity nonsense!!

Opportunistic. TDV approved the revised loan earlier in the year. The ratification is just the final sign off once everything is good to go. Nothing even remotely similar to EG’s ratification of AFC.

No those going into a negativity frenzy (and clearly triggered at being called traders), on the eve of £7m worth of shares being dumped onto the market are blatantly traders.

FWIW I've nothing against traders, I just despise the underhand tactics of trying to talk a share price down. For you to make money, other people have to see at a loss :-/

Not hard to spot all those eyeing up tomorrow, hoping for a dip in sp when the newly issued shares hit the market. They're all working overtime today to squeeze in every little bit of negativity to get the very most out of tomorrows buy opportunity.

Absolutely shameless