Member Info for Stebo

Stringer, why would you think that? I expect that it will be positive.

Rob, in regard to "Think kefi will have to sell of some of the interest in Saudi or JV as has a huge exploration portfolio"

It looks like the next two years will be a circa $10m commitment ($5m at Stage 1 JQ and same Stage 1 Hawiah). Stage 2, with bigger costs would be when TK is pumping in $250m a year. Bare in mind that KEFI costs will be dropping to about $1m pa once TKGM launches, and KEFI will be due a rebate of at least $6m-$7m (maybe much more).

knowing that ARTAR have cash-flowed KEFI the exploration funds before, and we'd only be a $few-million short, I don't think it would be that much of a push for KEFI to see out our 15% commitments and bring JQ and Hawiah through to realisation of full value.

DV, you much have sold up again. Not sure how you can be bothered with the hassle of trading this when the spread is so wide and it's not really that volatile. Too high a risk of a bombshell dropping to spend too long on the sidelines imo. Not sure much will happen today, but I'm expecting news on GMCO before the AGM which could be significant for the sp

Stringer, in regard to Harry's decisions over the past 12+ months, do you mean in relation to stringing along investors to maintain interest, which has lead to a lack of confidence? I'm curious as to what the alternative would have been - do you think that the market would have respected brutal honesty and happily volunteered to chip in for a couple of raises? And do you give Harry any credit for managing to use the AIM market to get KEFI to the finishing line without KEFI going bust?

TW has put himself in a position of power, and every once in a while he needs to take advantage of that to pay the bills I suppose.

I wouldn't be surprised if he sold on last raise and is looking for a good buy-in price again.

While director salaries and renumeration is often distasteful, while the sp isn't performing, it's typically not that relevant to to company performance. Scalping HAA's pay by £50k or whatever will make very little difference to KEFI's accounts or it's profitability. I think a lot of it is just an opportunity to lash out in anger about the sp, Harry becomes the target, and the renumeration is the only weapon available. Personally I think it's all just a distraction from the much more important business at hand!

Plumper, I meant in summary and for discussion. But that's fair enough and I suppose it wouldn't be fair to do that

Can you post them? I'm not sure just how much I trust TW, but it's interesting to hear what he has to say

Stringer, I can see it both ways. GMCO is our seat at the SA table. For me holding onto that makes KEFI a sustainable long-term company, which could be a major multi-national miner in a decade or two. If they sell GMCO then the risk is that they become a bit of a one trick pony, in a less-than-stable country.

Regarding the bumpy road through to production, I would disagree with that. We're due a decent rebate from TKGM once finance is sorted, which will be a minimum of £5m, and likely much more. KEFI's cash burn will also drop significantly (less than £1m pa) as costs will be seconded into TKGM. So the TK road to production is already smooth. The only issue might be if GMCO go mad with exploration, but I understand that KEFI's liability there will be circa £10m over the next two years, so that should mostly be covered by the TKGM rebate, and even if we need a small raise in 18 months time, I expect that the sp will be well over 5p by then and a couple of million won't even make a dint in terms of dilution.

GMCO is the long-term company maker, and at this stage of the game, with fund-raising already carried out, there would be really limited benefit to cashing in GMCO - we'd be cash rich, just as we're getting to the stage that we don't really need the money any longer! From a mental health point of view though, it would be nice to finally cash in our investment and success in SA, and finally enjoy a bit of an early pay-day :-)

"sell on the 1p spike" lol. I hope genuine investors aren't falling for this kind of subtle manipulation.

Even if we take worst case scenario.... 1moz reserve, gold price at only $3,000, KEFI equity at only 80%.... that's still a NAV of £1.3b. 1p per share is an mcap about £100m valuation. So you'd be selling your shares at less than 10% of what they're worth. Even GMCO stake alone is likely worth 1p per share, which could be sold at any time!!

Currently there's a high risk allowance, and it's up to everybody to value that risk according to their own prerogative. But if KEFI gets finance across the line, and the construction programme launched successfully, then the valuation is about the value of gold in the ground, how much it will cost to extract it, and how long that will take ......... and if the shares are still at 1p, at that stage I'll be remortgaging the house!!

Don't let posts on here dictate your buying or selling strategy. Be aware that people here have agendas, and the most successful manipulation is often the most subtle.

CT I understood that the £2m legal expenses was in aggregate, and likely covered a multitude of claims associated with Tulu Kapi, the licenses, the land, access roads, etc, etc.

I do agree that in hindsight we'd have been better selling of GMCO ages ago, even prior to the latest RE updates, but when we held 25%.

MF2017...

Have you tried emailing or speaking to KEFI - if you ask a simple and specific question, you might be surprised by what they come back to you with!

Regarding my theory on the timing, it's just putting two and two together, and then asking KEFI directly if the answer is four. Their response was pretty much that it's not three and it's not 5, so.... I suppose that there's always the chance that it could be 2 or 6 however!!

I would have preferred a GMCO sale over dilution, but if the timelines didn't align then it's a moot point as further Tulu Kapi delay seems to be so toxic to the sp. I feel pretty confident that the reason GMCO wasn't sold was down to time-lines, but I am less confident as to whether the planned sale will still go ahead down the line. The landscape has now changed, and the opportunity for GMCO funds to push TK over the line has now passed.

Where we are now sitting I am more torn. I've seen arguments that we should sell GMCO anyway, but not at fire-sale prices, and be fully funded right through to production, with zero chat bout dilution, etc. and push on with our own Ethiopian exploration. But there is also a very real risk that KEFI will be bought out, and if that were to happen then KEFI's seat at the SA table would be a real jewel in the package.

I think that it would be clearer when we see what happens to the sp following sign-off, and also what size of rebate KEFI get back from TKGM once all is said and done. If the rebate value is large enough, or the sp increase high enough to carry some fund-raising, then it makes sense to hold onto our 15% for a while longer. If it's going to be a weight round our neck then I think we should sell before 15% turns into 5%.

It's only conjecture, but going by the Q&A around the raise it seems like the funding raise was very much time-critical. Selling GMCO would have involved yet another time-line outside of KEFI's control and just added more risk and frustration.

It's my personal opinion that there were offers on the table for GMCO, but they were all low-ball offers from buyers expecting that KEFI was desperate for money. Thy barrage of selling between the ratification and the raise might even have been connected, trying to dissuade KEFI from a placement and instead take a bad price for GMCO.

We've seen off that threat (even if we've all had to pay the price for it!), but I still think that Harry would value selling GMCO for cashflow security over the next couple of development years, and to get a jump-start on Konso exploration and firming up the under-ground and satellite deposits at TK.

The only reason remaining for holding only GMCO is that it is an 'access all areas' ticket into SA, which would be huge if KEFI was thinking about a buy-out. Or even 5-10 years down the line, still having a foot in that door could be huge for KEFI's long-term prospects, once we are self-sufficient and back to looking for the next TK! The issue is that up until then, the SA liability is likely just to heavy for KEFI to shoulder, unless the sp re-rates to 10p plus and we can fund through non-value-eroding dilution.

Opportunistic, I agree that I think SA will be sold, and I believe that the only reason it wasn't already sold was that it is not ARTAR buying it. Timing is the reason why KEFI carried out the raise instead of selling GMCO, and this sale will take time for due diligence, etc. before the funds would be available for TKGM use, which was no use to KEFI with the consortium "barking" to get Tulu Kapi signed off and launched.

I would have had the patience to have waited, but the market seems fixated on TK delays, so it would have destroyed out sp if we had announced that we were selling GMCO, and they we'd be waiting another 6 months to use those funds to close out the TK sign-off. Instead we've had the raise, which accelerates the TK sign-off, and now I expect that we will see GMCO sale.

It would be lovely to see it go for $100m+, and watch what that does to the sp just before we get TK signed off!

Upshunt, in the last decade KEFI have bought and redesigned Tulu Kapi mine, including value engineered design and new feasibility study. During that time they have had to deal with covid, kidnappings, and a war, in a country which was already very difficult to do business in. During that time they have also lead all sorts of governmental and legal changes, to one of the largest countries in the world (inc 130m population). They have also assembled a debt based finance package, without JVing with another miner, retaining maximum equity in a huge gold-mine. They have also brought the government onboard, including a contribution of $20m (huge sum in Ethiopia), to provide enabling works, all while remaining a small sub-$100m business.

We are now on the cusp of all of that decade of hard work coming to fruition, but your opinion is that this has just all been a scam for Harry to drag us all along and fleece shareholders of their money!

There is no offense intended here, but the reality is that you got excited by the prospect (which is now better than ever), and were an 'early investor', who bought into the sales pitch that the mine launch was just round the corner, only to find out that it wasn't. Typically that wouldn't have been that bad a thing, you would have got in at a great price, and the sp would have risen as the project progressed and got closer to launch. There would have been fund-raises along the way, but you wouldn't have minded because they would have been at higher and higher prices, and you would have expected KEFI to be sitting currently with a speculative mcap circa $4-500m by now, just prior to launch.

Unfortunately there was a bit of an AIM boom during 2020, and since then the market has fallen out of favour with the mining sector. This means that a lot of early investors over-paid initially, placements were at lower and lower levels, and this has lead to a generally disgruntled group of shareholders. Rather than seeing it for what it is though, they tell themselves that it's not their fault for their choice of investment, and instead they look for somebody to blame and frame HAA as some kind of underhand scammer.

Because of this they're blinding themselves to pragmatism and cannot see the KEFI proposition for what it is, and cannot see the value that has been added to KEFI over the last numbers of years, and generally are dragging sentiment into the gutter. This turns off any new investors, who place value in the opinions of current shareholders, and makes their situation even worse.

Eventually (and hopefully soon) though, finance will be signed off, Tulu Kapi mine will be derisked, people will finally see the fruit of KEFI's decade of toil in Ethiopia, and conversations will turn from conspiracy theories about HAA and instead focus on the £1b NAV of TK, and the potential in SA! Personally I'm just sitting back now and waiting patiently for the RNS updates to start rolling in.

Diggit, it all just depends what your expectations are, and what the consequences are?

If you're going to consider yourself "played" if the signing doesn't happen to August, then you're potentially right..... but so what. Unless you're trading KEFI and need to have your capital released asap to move on to your next 10%, it's not the end of the world. But if you think that we're being played to the extent that the whole thing is a sham and that a mine doesn't really exist, and this is all just some kind of scam..... then KEFI probably isn't for you :-D

I'm happy that Tulu Kapi is now happening

I'm convinced that gold prices are only going to rise over the next decade

I think that the market has hugely undervalued KEFI, and is largely a victim of the negative sentiment of disgruntled KEFI shareholders.

If it takes to this time next year to get the contracts signed, I'll be okay with that, and not consider myself "played", because I'm investing with my eyes wide open - I'm completely aware that KEFI needs to keep investors interested, but I'm also aware of the upside potential.

i've gave up trying to predict sentiment. for me it's as likely to hit 10p on sign-off as it is to go down lol

while the sp is being sentiment driven, then it will be based on whether fomo or "haa's a ****" is the prevailing attitude at the time. the only thing that we can have any reasonable surety about is when we start pouring gold and and generating dividend paying profits. that will put a baseline under the sp, which i reckon will be a minimum of 10p (in today's money, much higher if gold continues rising for next couple of years).

between now and then i feel like any sp predictions are just a stab in the dark. could be a big post-sign-off sell off from battle-weary lth, or alternatively the spring which has spent a decade being coiled tighter and tighter could finally be released just at a time of new ath gold prices. if that happens, and fomo kicks in, and people realise that this is going to be 10p in a couple of years anyway, we could easily see an historic re-rate. hopefully we'll find out sooner rather than later anyway!!

Thanks, I'd glanced over that, but 89% IRR really is incredible for a £680m project!!

How on earth is our mcap still only £50m lol

It's hilarious and the perfect set-up for a once in a lifetime rerate once investors and institutions see things starting to come to fruition.

Opportunistic, did you calculate that 89% yourself, or is it from somewhere?

I love this answer from the Q&A

"Q: Thank you for the detailed Q and A which is unusually transparent for a listed company. But how can future timetables be more reliable than in the past?

A: Upon signing the Tulu Kapi funding package, the syndicate of parties will have aligned on timetable and key milestones. Then KEFI will be solely responsible to manage to the agreed schedule rather than KEFI continuing to strive to assemble commitments from as yet uncommitted parties."

I've been saying for years that people's issue with KEFI is unrealistic expectations and a lack of depth of understanding about the reality of doing what KEFI has now done. Complaints about delays, and especially laying the blame for these at KEFI's feet is as silly as blaming the weatherman for the weather, but it's a great point that KEFI are making about the time-lines going forward.

Once everybody signs the 'detailed definitive documentation' they will all have legal obligations to each-other, and consequences / damages if they don't meet their obligations. At that point in time KEFI will be able to disclose the contracted time-table, and so not only with TK be de-risked from a finance point of view, but also from a time-certainty point of view.

They have voluntarily now put their head in the block, and said that post-signing they will be taking responsibility for the time-line and any subsequent delays. That should be good news to all the impatient shareholders among us.

I know I've mentioned it before, but filtering bonkers, Bukowski, and the rest of his accounts, really does get a 5-star recommendation from me. It's only now that I've realised that 90% of my posts were in response to some absolute nonsense that he was posting, and I now reckon that he's only doing it to bait a reaction.

I felt obliged to correct him, so that other people weren't misled by the tripe he was posting, but I now reckon that even idiots will see his agenda for what it is, and if they can't then it's only their own fault.

Really looking forward to the next two weeks :-)