Member Info for Stebo

I haven't noticed any of those 777 trades in a while. Sign that the placement churn is now finally all gone perhaps???

Just below 0.7 I think :-b

Somebody is buying, and who in their right mind would be selling.

Once KEFI are visiting board-rooms with various government officials, etc, that would be very hard to keep quiet.

Can't help but suspect that perhaps the first of the consortium parties have potentially now signed off on the contract :-)

Sounds like great news. Hopefully another issue settled and risk mitigated (even if it only ever was a tiny risk)

You need to try harder buffett. Sp is only going up (10% over last 5 days), and will continue to over as we get through the next few weeks.

If you're looking for a buy opportunity, it's hard to imagine that it will ever be much better than today. Just make the buy, and be done with your silliness - you're fooling nobody.

MF2017 - I'd agree with most of what you're saying.

I struggle to wrap my head around the sentiment side of things, which is why it interests me. I also agree that we should be valued circa £200m+ currently, because the risk of finance not happening, is now at relatively low levels, even if it does end up taking a bit longer than we all hope.

I'm still torn, because this mindset of '2p on sign-off' is definitely something that is becoming prevalent among current shareholders, but I can't help but think that it will be a whole raft of new 'post-sign-off' investors who will be driving the sp at that stage. Also, I feel like when current holders start watching the sp rocketing up, maybe those notions that they had of selling at 2p might disappear as a bit of greed starts to set in.

If anybody, it should be current shareholders who know the value of Tulu Kapi. I personally find it absolutely crazy that people would see out this long, hard, slog of de-risking, and then sell themselves massively short. Who really knows though, but it will be interesting to see what happens (and hopefully we'll find out soon!).

MF I'm also curious about your crystal ball.... you're not the first person to reckon circa 2p on sign-off.

Is this just a 'feeling', or is there any calculation or reasoning behind this? I'm not saying you're wrong, but it seems to be a bit of a prevailing attitude, and often those sentiments become a self-fulfilling prophesy. I can't help but wonder if we were currently sitting at 2p, would the prevailing attitude be that we'll get to 6p on sign-off, etc. As opposed to the market actually considering the Valuation and risk-profile, and what that works out at post-de-risking.

mf2017, i presume bonkers is having a go at my ***-packet calcs, and completely ignoring that it's just representation of how under-valued we are, and not some kind of prediction.

he usually makes a point that the 2015 dfs only shows 1moz reserves, even though i have explained at length how the rise in gold price, vs the cost to mine and process means that everything within the 1.7moz resource estimate will be viable for processing, along with a lot more. also the fact that tulu kapi exploration remains open in various directions. presuming that the reserves will only be 1moz (an number arrived at based on viability at $1,400/oz gold price) is not even pessimistic, it's just downright wrong in the current environment. claiming 1.7moz would be pesimistic, because it would be incredibly surprising if it was just pure luck that our exploration ceased right at the edge of the ore-body!

on top of that, it has been a long standing assumption (from the days of $1,500/oz gold price) that there is another million oz in the under-ground mine.

anyway, all of that is completely missing the point. even if there was only 1moz at tulu kapi, that changes the calculation from 60p to 20p, which is only a 4,000% gain, rather than a 12,000% gain, from today's share price. the point is, no matter how pessimistic you are, or how high you feel the current risks are, kefi is still crazy crazy under-valued. that's just the market forces at play, but when the sentiment turns the fundamentals are there to support a huge huge re-rate.

Also, "Try 1.5times revenue in production year 1"...... I really hope (and presume!) that you meant to type profit?

If you're valuing companies based on revenue, and completely disregarding their cost-profile, then that would be really concerning.

And in regard to GGP as a comparison, the issue with GGP is that they've tons of gold, but it nearly costs them as much to produce it as they get for selling it. So their profitability (which is all that really matters) takes a huge hit. GGP only actually works as a decent speculative investment if the price of gold continues to rise way above $4,000/oz. If it drops much below where it's currently at then GGP will be on some very shaky ground. KEFI can afford for the price of gold to drop to well under $2,000/oz and still be fully viable and highly profitable.

Just for a laugh, here is a quick comparison at todays price of gold ($3,350):

GGP - 10moz x $550/oz profit ($3,350 - $2,800) = $5.5b = £4.4b

£4.4b / 671m (shares in issue) = 656p per share. SP has been typically trading at a 50% discount to that, recently dropping to 60% discount currently

KEFI - 3moz x $2,350/oz profit (£3,350 - $1,000) = $7.05b = £5.64b

£5.64b / 9.36b (shares in issue) = 60p per share. SP is trading at over a 99% discount to that!!

There simply is zero comparison between the two in regard to high-return opportunities.

KEFI obviously comes with more environmental, geographic and geo-political risks, but in terms of business-case risk, GGP is every bit as much of a gamble, for a tiny fraction of the potential return that KEFI offers.

GGP is popular because it has a strong and community-spirit type shareholder group that follow GGP like a cult. Plenty of people who invested pre-2020 have made a fortune on GGP, but those opportunities are now gone.

KEFI is hated, with most shareholders still suffering from KEFI-induced trauma, and the current pitiful share-price fully reflects that (and then some!)...... but that's where the opportunity lies.

You don't make money by investing in well established, large companies...... you make money by investing in tiny companies, before the explode and become those large companies.

"Stebo, you can't value a company at 1 x ALL THE GOLD IN THE GROUND divided by shares. If you did that then Greatland Gold would be at £42 per share, Ha! Try 1.5times revenue in production year 1."

Mibb, the $3,000/oz takes into account $1,000/oz AISC, and it's also only taking KEFI's 80% share into account, so it's valuing all the potential profit.

Also I am not saying that this is how KEFI's mcap should be valued, but 3moz and $4,000/oz gold price is a relatively likely scenario, so it's just an example of the potential here. Hopefully also a wake-up call to people who have become so used to a sub-1p share-price that it has started to fade on them just how incredibly cheap KEFI shares are in relation to a NPV.

The biggest tragedy that I can already foresee with KEFI is the hundreds of LTH who have suffered years of being underwater, who then sell for sub-2p, and then spend the next five years telling their mates at the pub about what could have been if they'd held on until 10p+!

Doesn't matter to me if it happens in a few weeks, or even a few months.

Plenty of people pump their money into 5-year fixed savings account @ 5%.

I am now satisfied that the finance deal will close and that Tulu Kapi will fully launch. Shortly after that I am also confident that there will be a revised DFS showing 2moz, and then shortly after that I would expect further exploration on the underground mine to reveal another 1moz+. In the meantime I also expect the price of gold to keep rising to circa $4k/oz by the time we are selling it.

3moz @ $3k/oz ($4k/oz pog, less $1k/oz AISC) = $9b

$9b x 80% KEFI ownership = $7.2b = £5.76b (in GBP)

KEFI's mcap is currently less than £60m.

£5.76b mcap would be over 60 pence per share. We are currently at half a penny.

Just let those numbers sink in, and have a good weekend.

I simply refuse to believe that you've done 1,000%, across your portfolio, since 2022.

Maybe one play has, while you turn a blind eye to all the other high-risk plays that went -100% lol

For me KEFI could realistically do 1,000%, for what is currently relatively low risk, but there'll not be many who don't top-slice at stages on the rise, an opportunities like this that finally play out are very few and far between.

If you have, then your gamble has so far paid off, but it's still a gamble.

You need to get lucky everyday, I just need to get lucky one of these days!

The "hard earned" isn't doing nothing. It's a protection against an RNS dropping some morning at 7:30 am saying 'deals done'.

Anybody caught out that morning, will look at the 5% that they're making elsewhere and thoroughly regret not having that capital multi-bagging on market open. That one RNS will bring more profits than years of sitting in other low-risk investments.

Yes, right now that would have paid off, and those who won't risk missing the boat are many a few quid worst off, but..... it's a huge gamble to be out of KEFI at this late stage of the game.

Right now the risky move is to be away chasing 5% or 10%, while gambling missing out on 100%+++, or maybe 500% if you can't get your other shares liquidated and a buy through early on market open.

Not worth the risk. Those who have done their due diligence know what's in the egg that we're sitting on, and I won't risk getting caught out being away playing elsewhere when this one hatches!

NPV 10p+++

Feel free to sell yourself short and regret it for the rest of your life though :-)

De-risked, and finance in the bag, if KEFI is still only at 2p I'm still a buyer and I'll happily sit and wait for dividends in a couple of years.

Stringer..... well if that's what you "think" then it must be worth considering lol

Company with a $billion++ asset, pumping out $300m++ of profit pa, completely de-risked...... and you think it will be worth only about £150m lol

In regard to slipping time lines. What Harry actually said was that the signing process is ongoing, but realistically it is probably going to slip into September. Also that full project launch will still be in September - that's not something that happens the day after sign-off either.

To me that indicated very early September, and prob 4 to 5 weeks tops.... but at the same time we could all be surprised and there's no reason why it couldn't drop sooner than that.

Perhaps this is just the new 'post-AGM' Harry ensuring that he correctly manages expectations. :-)

"Construction cost escalation " becomes completely irrelevant when then price of gold has more than doubled over the same period.

The banks investment case is based on $1,800/oz gold, and $1,000/oz gold price.

Because of the PoG (and associated Royalties, etc.) the construction cost will have escalated, but it's irrelevant because it's only a tiny fraction of the increased revenue.

Sounds silly, but it's actually a consequence of an incredibly positive factor. At well over $3,300/oz, we have absolutely zero to fear about this deal. The banks (and everybody else) will be chumping at the bit to sign up to this and get mining!

You presume wrong

Crazytowner, I am exactly the same, and a few other big holders I have spoken to echo my thoughts.

Boots have been filled, risks have been mitigated, the train has started rolling down the tracks and there is nothing left to discuss or do except patiently sit back contently waiting for news to start flowing.

July's usual top-up went into GGP for a quick trade, so hopefully I make my 10% and get back out of that and into KEFI before news lands, but I'll be happy with whenever the news starts to flow.