Member Info for Stebo

15% for time, another 15% for jurisdictional risk, etc.

Opportunistic, at $4k/oz my NPV comes out at 15.5p

FWIW, over the life of the mine (which I expect to be 12 years +) I would expect that the average pog will be way way beyond that. The Gold Price correction has plenty more to go imo, and even then it will track inflation which will be significant over the next decade plus.

MF2017 - I agree with a lot of what you say. And when I give a NAV / NPV Valuation I always make an allowance for sp disparity from inherent value. You are completely correct though, that sentiment trumps calculatable value, and the market can be consistently "wrong" for years. Being able to prove that KEFI is worth £xxxm is irrelevant if the market doesn't agree. Buyers on AIM don't buy based on whether a company is under-valued or not, they buy based on whether the sp is likely to go higher or lower in the next 3-6 months.

I still believe though, that over the long-term the sp has to correct to corelate with actual value and profitability. Even if that takes another couple of years until KEFI starts paying dividends. The thing about KEFI is that the disparity is so HUGE between actual value and the sp, is that it doesn't even have to correct.... just come a bit closer to a correction.

With $3,400/oz gold price, and conservatively assuming 1.9moz, 30% risk (15% for time, 15% for jurisdiction, etc), gives over 12p NPV. Plenty on here would be happy with only 1.2p, so the market can still be completely and ludicrously under-valued, and KEFI still be a massive multi-bagger.

If the theory is that the market is currently valuing the likelihood of Harry getting this over the line, then in theory they are unconsciously applying a 95.5% discount for that risk. I think that at this stage, even the most pessimistic would agree that the risk is much less than 50:50, but the market is valuing KEFI as only having a 4.5% chance of Tulu Kapi happening (also completely disregarding the SA assets!).

Because of how devoid of reason or rational the sp currently is, I find it next to impossible to predict what the sp will be on sign-off. I see lots of people saying 1.5p-2p, so I get the feeling that this is maybe the prevailing sentiment, but then I also understand that this is based on human psyche, and that will completely change when the excitement and fomo of a rocketing sp kicks in. There will be a raft of excited new shareholders buying in a 1.5p, with a different mentality where they fully expect to see 5p, and then a raft of buyers at 5p who can calculate 12p-15p as fair value and fully expect another GGP.

The sentiment of it all is just too hard to predict. In my opinion the time when the sp is most likely to reflect profitability (which is what I look for), will be when dividends are paid. At that time profitability will drive the dividend, and the dividend will drive the sp.

I think it’s just a lull at the moment. Maybe the calm before the storm :-)

To be honest I enjoyed him for a bit of sport, but if it becomes a disruption to others then that’s just being selfish. I was getting too easily baited into correcting nonsense, and I believe that disruption and discourse is bonkers goal on here.

Not missing stepping back from posting on here so much at all

Dv, I have to highly recommend just blocking them. It was another poster that recommended I block bonkers and it has actually been great to be blissfully ignorant of whatever nonsense he is posting :-)

MF2017.

I think we'd need KEFI's definition of "major works". There have been major works by way of the works that the EG is carrying out (services like water and power, and construction of the new bypass roads, etc), and the set-up of the construction camp.

Also, I believe there was an RNS about the legal case at the time.

Stringer, anything less than 5p-8p post sign-off is based on sentiment and not Valuation. Sentiment is a coin-toss, and the best way to judge it is technical analysis (completely disregarding inherent value factors). IMO there's a chance of it going FOMO to crazy prices, and there's a chance of a mass sell-off at 1p. What's easier to forecast though is that eventually the sp will correct towards true inherent value, which is somewhere around 8p+ (rising as we get closer to production). Sentiment can swing either way with zero explanation, but once we get to dividend times, the sp and profitability will fall into lockstep.

Catbert, The value in SA isn't GMCO. The value is that we have a seat at the table. As seat that other billion dollar mining companies could never get. The dividends from that will be down the line when we can afford to start taking advantage of that access, or alternatively if a major comes knocking with a buyout offer. The would be buying KEFI's seat at the SA table, which is worth much more than just 15% of GMCO.

I believe that this is in line with Harry's thinking, which is why going from 25% to 15% was permissible, but exiting SA altogether is a much bigger deal. It's not about the GMCO projects are equity. It's about the SA access. Once we leave, we will never get back in.

If you can't work out the value of holding onto access into the Saudi market, then perhaps this just isn't for you ;-)

Opportunistic - you've hit the nail on the head "most cant comprehend that though"

Biggest issue with KEFI is that when the numbers are crunched, there is such a disconnect between current market price and the Valuation Potential, that people just simply can't wrap their heads around it, so just settle for a "hope we'll get to 2p" lol

I'd a good laugh at that Sharezy - a work that Charles Bukowski himself would be proud of.

I also have to thank the poster who suggested that I make use of the green-box function. Words on the internet don't offend me, and I am quite happy just ignore opinions that I disagree with or don't like, but there genuinely is something refreshing about not having to read the agenda-driven drivel from our favourite "shareholder"

Unexpectedly a fan of "This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view", and would highly recommend - 5 stars review

For anybody not using it, it's dead simple - Top of the page, to left hand side, just beside "Share Chat", is "Filters". Click there and type in whatever Bonkers username is (I can't see it any more). I do miss the comedy, but I don't miss feeling compelled to respond to what ever lies, fear-mongering, conspiracy theories and other nonsense that he pollutes this place with.

It's about the next ten years, not the last ten years!

Community liaison, and preparation has been ongoing for years, as you would expect - this is an entire community that is being relocated. The works have not been going on for 8 years. It was only earlier this year that the relocation works commenced, with Y1 relocations all to be carried our prior to September '25.

I know (hope) that your being intentionally silly, and you already know all this, but it's a good opportunity to post these things to remind everybody that there is the silly narrative pedalled by people like you (and the rest of your accounts), and then there is the reality of an actual company progressing a multi-billion dollar mining project.

Just to add to the below, more focused on costs...

Total cost of the RAP is circa $10.8m, with $10m for relocation, and $830k for Livelihood restoration projects.

This $10m is broken down as $4.75m in Y1, $5.25m in Y2, over the 2 year development of the mine

Breaking this down further....

Y1:

$3.29m as compensation (typically based on value of farm land, crops, house, etc.)

$50k for Surveys, etc

$150k for relocation logistics

$80k for relocation of churches and graves

$50k for archaeological surveys

$350k for construction of buildings

$200k for development of infrastructure

$250k agricultural land preparations

Other remaining sums are typically contingency funds, money for incorporation of KEFI Foundation, monitoring, education, etc.

Let me know if you want a similar breakdown for Y2

Just for you Bukowski....

358 households

1,774 people

Relocated in line with IFC Performance Standards, as found in IFC Handbook (500 page document if you want to read it)

First stage completed in early '25 included survey of host land, final consultation with community and payment of first compensation

The relocation will be phased in line with the mine construction programme, phasing the resettlement based on infrastructure priority areas

Compensation payments as per Ethiopian land expropriation laws and regulations with landholders receiving payments according to their phase allocation

Once payment has been made families have a timeline to vacate the land

KEFI have also partnered with LRP (Livelihood Restoration Plan) for on-going protection of the community on an on-going basis

KEFI has also established the Tulu Kapi Charitable Endowment, which will be funded from gold production, on a percentage basis to invest in community projects and relation to skills, health and community development

Despite your refusal to believe anything until you see photos, the Relocation Action Plan is well underway. Believe it, or don't believe it..... nobody here cares.

Bonkowski, I believe the total relocation cost is circa $10m, with $4.5m due at the start, and then there are various on-going payment's over the following years.

You can't find photos of the houses because, people's private homes have absolutely nothing to do with you. There are also security issues associated with posting photos and details of homes, where the residents have just had a life-changing windfall, in a country where most people still keep their cash under their bed!

What does it matter to you anyway? Are you invested in KEFI?

Fantasy, it has taken a fairly typical period of time to get finance sorted, and the fact that we've managed to do this, and still hold onto 85% equity is phenomenal. It's hard to accept when we've made bad investment decisions, but the reality is that some of us got swept away by the promise and the prospect and have been used by KEFI to finance this pre-development stage. That's on us, but thankfully the bull-run on gold has mitigated any negative impact of the process taking longer than we expected.

I find it weird that look at the gold price, but instead of focusing on the unbelievable impact that the PoG is having on KEFIs prospects, you instead have this superpower to somehow find a tenuous negative to take from it that it's an indication of how long it has taken to get to this stage.

FWIW the initial DFS was carried out before KEFI even got their hands on Tulu Kapi, so your point is completely irrelevant anyway, but nice try at bringing a bit of negativity to a once in a lifetime positive.

I green-box'd bonkers, but I wish there was a way that LSE would auto block all of his accounts.

Bukowski - you do realise that the residents get paid money (many of which have already been paid), they then have two months to get out and are responsible for building their own homes. I understand that KEFI may have actually built some 'starter homes' to help the community, but KEFI are not responsible for building replacement houses.

Hopefully that has cleared that up for you.

Mithrel, bare in mind we only pick up 15% of those exploration costs, so total for KEFI ('25-'26) is less than £3m. We've already been told that we get most of the £7m from the last raise back as a rebate once TKGM is up and running (along with historic additional sums, which I'm sure is now substantial), so we should have no worries about covering the GMCO exploration costs from now through until TKGM is in production imo.