Member Info for Stebo

Anyway Bonkers, I see you're still dodging giving any sp forecasts lol

Truth is that you haven't a baldly notion what you're doing or how you would even go about valuing KEFI shares. As each day passes I'm more and more convinced that you're only here for the social interaction in your otherwise lonely existence.

Apologies bonkers that I wasn't at your beck and call 24/7.

Lol at the hypocrisy of the poster who claimed people are obsessed with him and talk about him all the time. I have a few meetings to take this morning and he spends his day searching through 5 years worth of posts to try and find a forecast that didn't come to fruition lol

Regarding your post, even KEFI have said that they were caught of guard by how long ratification took. When the RNS stated that the ratification had ministerial approval, I misunderstood that and assumed that it was ministerial council approval. When the ministerial council approval did happen, it was only a week until actual ratification, just like I said. I misunderstood the RNS and I'm happy to accept that, as I said at that time.

As for the rest though, the timeline has been pushed back, but the sequence is still valid:

- TDB reapproval - done

- Detailed definitive documentation, immediately following ratification - imminent, worst case a few weeks

- Early works are done, and enabling works are also now due to be completed by end of May

- Final sign-off I reckoned was two months after ratification, which it's looking likely to be

As for the sp predictions:

- Ratification +1p, I believe this would have been the case if it hadn't been for the huge seller dumping hundreds of millions into any rise

- TDB +20%, we went up 12% on that news, but it was a different more negative sentiment environment at that stage.

- Detailed definitive documents - maybe more like 3p now due to dilution

- Financial close - +0.5p, I actually think that this is too conservative, considering the current price of gold

- TKGM project launch - +1p, again I think too conservative considering the price of gold.

Dilution will have an impact on growth, but considering that the mcap has hardly moved in years, despite decrease in risk (inc now risk of further raise), and profitability increasing by at least 200% due to price of gold, KEFI is as good a proposition now as it has ever been.

Condor, you should do more research. KEFI costs at company level are what entitles it to 80%-85% equity in TKGM.

I agree with you that down the line there are opportunities for KEFI G&C and KEFI Ethiopia to load costs into TKGM, and possibly even extract some small fees through novel business arrangements, but you said "when funding would be secured and auditors satisfied with solvency of the company." and used that to imply that funding was miles away.

Firstly when funding is signed off, it won't be drawn down right away (in fact it will likely be the final source of funds due to interest accruement), and secondly it would in no way help shore up the accounts of KEFI PLC. So there is no link between sign-off and solvency of KEFI PLC, and the fact that there has just been a raise (to expediate sign-off) means that sign-off is closer than ever, not further away than ever.

Thanks for the education though.

Condorman, which RNS is this all from?

TheCondorMan, The finance being signed off is not for KEFI. It is for TKGM, which would provide no solvency to KEFI PLC.

The question which should be being asked, is if these funds are for the benefit of TKGM sign-off, then what are KEFI PLC getting from TKGM for this additional money. Perhaps we've just secured 85% of TKGM instead of 80%?

Just to reply to you Fantasy "Stebo - good to know that you had been in KEFI for 6 years. What made you think that I had been with Kefi less than you have?"

Not very many people have sat in KEFI for more than 6 years, taking placement after placement, without figuring out that construction was actually still years away. Therefore there are not that many people who have been in KEFI more than 6 years, unless they've been trading it. Are you trading it?

"Stebo - thats an interesting statement... about who runs KEFI... Not sure what makes you say that with certain level of confidence unless you are one of the insiders from KEFI? Just asking.. everyone thinks they are indispensable, until they are not... Can you tell the BS master to vacate the place - please.. (I am polite you see.. )"

I don't really have a response to this except lol

Smellyben " I'm gonna go in hibernation again with this share"

code for, I've just bought in again, and no longer have a vested interest in being on here trying to talk the price down" lol

smellyben,

not that i really care what you think, but for a long time i was trading it, buying after placements, selling on spikes.

i wouldn't have been comfortable discussing that with lths, neither biting my tongue at those who were over-optimistic, nor speaking up and ******* all over people's aspirations.

i've kept my eye in and from last oct i decided that tulu kapi is now finally at the starting line, so it is no longer a trade but instead an investment that i can throw my whole weight behind.

i also don't even think i was registered on here until a year or so ago, i just read the forums and had no notion of commenting, the same as i currently do with most other shares that i keep an eye on.

anyway, what's it to you? are you doubting my credentials as a battle-hardened lth lol

being a lth in kefi is not a badge on honour - if anything it is a bit embarrassing to admit that you didn't learn your "once bitten, twice shy" lesson. i got caught badly in the dec placement, but i always knew it was a risk that i was happy to carry to ensure i didn't miss the tk launch. this time round i'm more annoyed at myself.

6 years

Fantasy, "how long we have been involved" is irrelevant. I've prob been in KEFI longer than you have. I'm just less emotional.

Regardless however, we all have the same three options - buy, hold, or sell.

You know who runs KEFI, and that isn't changing any time soon.

Regarding Harry, everybody has their own view.

Mine is that the length of time taken to get to this stage is reasonable, especially retaining such huge equity and securing loans for the majority of the finance. I think that any other CEO would have taken just as long.

I also accept that in the interim, KEFI needs funded and shareholders are going to carry the can for that typically. Again, a different CEO isn't going do act any differently

I also think that his salary is power for the course, and if / when Tulu Kapi gets into production it will have been well worth it. It's a small number in the grand scheme of the business plan, and I'd rather pay good money for somebody that actually gets the job done, that cheap money for somebody who isn't capable.

I'm not happy "if" he is also picking up a pile of cash from KEFI through another consultancy business - if he's KEFI's CEO he shouldn't have time for consultancy work, but we don't know the ins and outs of that and whether there is actually a vested interest or not.

I'm also not happy about his decision to dilute shareholders, when it appears to us that there were plenty of other options on the table. That's something I would like clarity on, before I mark it down as incompetence. We don't see the full picture, so for all we know there is justification for the decision. I hope we get to find out.

FWIW, the mcap outlook hasn't changed at all, it's just the dilution impact of the additional shares in issue dampening the upsaide.

As a new investor, if you can buy cheaper, then that dilution is mitigated. If buying at 0.65p yesterday was a good deal, then if you can pick up shares eventually for 0.55p in the next day or two, you'll be getting just as good a deal.

If you were previously concerned about a placing, and considered that a risk to the value, then you no longer have that to worry about.

As I said Bonkers, you let me know what you think the following will be, and I will let you know what the sums forecast:

- Forecast price of gold over the mine life

- Forecast reserves

- Discount for time (10%?)

- Discount for general risk (such as jurisdiction - 20%?)

- Discount for disparity between NAV and mcap (20%?)

- Discount for risk of finance not actually happening (5%?)

Fantasy,

I can't help but think that all the Harry-bashing is just childish (or perhaps vulgar in certain cases).

He's a AIM CEO doing what AIM CEOs do :-/

Bonkers, more that happy to. You give me the following:

- Forecast price of gold over the mine life

- Forecast reserves

- Discount for time (10%?)

- Discount for general risk (such as jurisdiction - 20%?)

- Discount for disparity between NAV and mcap (20%?)

- Discount for risk of finance not actually happening (5%?)

Plug those numbers for me and I'll give you a forecast. I can also give you what it would have been at 8.25b shares vs 9.36b if you like?

Bear666

That’s my big gripe with this fundraiser - according to the RNS it’s being used to cover (£7m) sign-off cost, so it’s potentially not actually refilling the coffers.

I think that the sign-off costs stuff is bs, but I’d far rather they just came out and said, “we ran out of money, but now we’ve cleared costs and have £5m in the bank”.

Now we’re left not knowing if it’s actually “we’d a pile of costs and we were £6m short, so we’ve raised to get sign-off across the line, but we’re now broke and will need to raise again as soon as we rerate” 🤨

Shotgun Mike, I 'd actually prefer it to drop below the placing price. It's a quip, but while the sp sits above placing price, it there will always be those saying to wait until it gets to below placing. I'd rather it just dropped to 0.5p tomorrow, give everybody the chance to get that notion out of their system, and then started building again from there.

To give the benefit of the doubt, maybe with ratification and BCM onboard, the 'real' Tulu Kapi time-table moved forward to the point that GMCS sale couldn't have been finalised in time.

It was maybe a toss up between delaying TK sign-off again, or raising instead of selling GMCO.

To be honest though my main question is what on earth we need £7m for. Apparently "Most of these costs form part of the Tulu Kapi development budget." I've been involved in many similar deals, and I've never experienced needing several million dollars, to close a finance deal! And any 'success fee' type deals are always only payable upon receipt of the finance.

Rob, you're maybe right about the GMCO sale, but my thoughts on it are that unless we get a huge some more, then the dilution will eventually end up proving to be more expensive than taking a bad price for GMCO.

Okay, make that two placings I've got caught with lol