Member Info for Stebo

Bonkers "If you believe it will get too 1p, 3p 5p 10p on construction I don't think it really matters in the grand scheme of things, if your exit point is reached then congrats. Least you will be one of the lucky ones"

That's like winning a Porsche in a raffle for £5 and selling it to somebody for £15 and being happy because you've tripled your money lol

stringer, hopefully you can see why negativity, and a simple refusal to accept maths and reality from the likes of bonkers and the other merry band of naysayers on here, ****es me off.

it helps reinforce that sentiment, which does nothing for the sp.

when a few faceless usernames on lse (prob all the same person) state, "na, never going to do better than 1p", it seems to carry more weight than a team of independent, certified, competent and qualified analysists saying that they've spent a few weeks on the ground and talking directly to kefi and believe that 12p-15p is a target sp.

if people actually understood the value of their shares, then they wouldn't be inclined to sell them for pennies, even if they are in profit. they we'd only have to worry about whoever it is that mass dumping shares at every opportunity!

Stringer, the total sum pumped into Tulu Kapi will be $500m, including historical spend, by the time we get to production. You're correct that some of that will be debt, but people aren't making half a billion investment unless they are expecting a significant return. As you say though, even just the NAV of the asset and the investment will be circa $250m = £200m = 2.5p (plus another penny for GMCO!), but the whole operation is a waste of time if you're not going to get a huge return on that investment!

What is crazy though is that we're basically sitting on that already and the sp is only half a penny!!

Bonkers, I don't have time to do your research for you, but have a look at:

Novo Resources in 2017, sp went from 0.8 to 8 in a couple of months - 1,000%

Great Bear Resources, went from 0.4 to 9 very quickly, then on to 30 at one stage.

Maverix Metals went from $100m mcap to over a billion

There are others on AIM, but I don't want to be accused of cross-ramping, and with the whole sector currently suppressed they're not as remarkable.

Just because you "can't see it", doesn't mean it can't happen.

Stringer01, I think that there are two reasons that we haven't seen significant sp movement.

1) there is somebody with a huge holding that is exiting and selling in mass traunches whenever the market volume allows. I'm not sure if this is intentional (keeping the sp in check for a take-over) or coincidental (for example maybe PWM had a big holding that they are now unwinding, or Safaya have had a change of heart following the reduction in GMCO and likely sale). There has been huge buying recently, but it has all been soaked up by equally massive selling.

2) You attitude to the sp is a prevailing one, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. If the majority of the market simply refuse to believe the facts and figures, and the analysis of Valuations, then it's that attitude and sentiment which ultimately sets the sp, regardless of how much gold is in the ground and how much profit there is to be made.

Both of these reasons will eventually change. Eventually whoever is selling will run out of shares to sell. And eventually there will be no denying KEFI's profitability and the dividends alone will drive the sp to fair market value. It's just a matter of waiting for the correction, or even better if you've got any dry powder left to take advantage!

Genuine question - where do you pluck 1.5p from?

Dsrt, if somebody was to give you KEFI's stats and tell you that you'd be able to buy them with only a £50m mcap, that would be considered unbelievable. To me the current situation is more remarkable, than a significant re-rate to become in line with analysist calculations.

Stringer, out of curiosity, have you been a shareholder before in any explorers that have successfully launched a mine and transitioned to junior miners?

Several hundred percent gains within days is typical, and it will be even more pronounced with KEFI due to both the sentiment / history meaning that we are coming from artificial lows, and also the fact that we are holding onto 80%+ of Tulu Kapi, which is unheard of for an explorer's first mine.

0.65p to 8p is entirely possible, but even if it only does half as good as that, it's still not a bad deal!!

Bonkers, can you enlighten me as to why 8p is so ludicrous? Baring in mind that professionals have ran the numbers and this is the valuation that has been arrived at (based on $3,000/oz). Are you saying that it is ludicrous that the market would correctly value us at some stage? Would this have been the same response a year ago if somebody mentioned that they though gold would be $3,400/oz in 12 months?

Thankfully your narrow mind doesn't define the realm of possibility. 8p is fair value. The market is welcome to get it wrong for as long as you like, but Tulu Kapi is now essentially de-risked, and I believe that it is only a matter of time until that is realised.

What is actually ludicrous, is the fact that 6 months ago everybody here was telling us about how KEFI was still a huge long-shot, and all the potential delays and ways that KEFI and the finance deal, etc could easily go off the rails. A lot of it was actually true, and KEFI was a high-risk opportunity. It is however, completely ludicrous that 99% of that risk has now disapated, yet the sp is still not a lot higher than it was in January!! That's the bit that is ludicrous, but I suspect that it won't stay like that for long.

stringer, you've got it all **** about face i'm afraid. the whole point is that the market has demonstratably undervalued kefi. that the opportunity. that's why i'm invested.

Www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/presentations/kefi-ethiopian-mining-investment-seminar-presentation-may25.pdf slide 19

Average of first 3 years production EBIT = $387m!!

Even at only 50% payout, that is over 1.5p per share dividend, which will only rise!

For a share that can be bought for less than a penny at the minute!!! It's about as close to printing your own money that you can legally get lol

Bonkers, if you're posts are being removed, perhaps you should reconsider what it is that you are writing in them. The only times that I have spotted posts being removed, it was not surprising.

Bonkers, something worth noting.

The 1moz reserve given is stated at 2.1g/t

Based on Lycopodiums proposals (2017, so might now change with the refreshed costings), it's costing $33/t to mine and process.

That means that at 2.1g/t, and todays gold price of $3,235, there is $206.39 profit per ton!!

The Resource Estimate has demonstrated that if the cut-offs went down to 0.45g/t, then there is 1.7moz. At 0.45g/t, KEFI will still be making circa $20/t profit. To suggest that the reserve won't grow way way beyond 1moz is crazy

Bonkers, proving up and designing the underground doesn't take time - it takes money. Thankfully we'll have plenty of that soon enough. The main thing to remember though, is that KEFI's business is mining gold - they don't just exist to increase their sp and make shareholders money. As a business, it could make more (economic) long-term sense to soft pedal the underground mine and sweat the capital investment for 15 years rather than 10, for example.

"My issue with the underground mining , isn't about is there gold there or not. It's the sheer lack of information available for it, add in the fact it HASNT been a priority of kefi makes me suspicious. Why not do the work while we were waiting for ratification. Prove up a resource that's worth extracting"

This kind of thing costs a lot of money. When we already have a commercially viable mine "proved-up", and the license to the underground mine, then apart from titillation there is zero commercial benefit to worrying about the underground mine until we've the open-pit one producing profit, and self-funding the rest of the operation.

Bonkers, the 135koz is the first year. The 190koz I based dividend calcs on was during subsequent years. If you'd a clue you'd have presumed that because there will unlikely be a Y1 dividend, as profit will be used to repay debt as early as possible.

But... feel free to give me what ever conservative figures that you like and I can crunch the P:E / NPV calculations for you if you like?

For Y1, if you take 135koz, only $3,000/oz gold, and 8.25b shares, that's still $270m profit to TKGM, $216m (£173m) profit to KEFI. That (if it was a typical year) would still be 1p per share dividend, and would suggest a typical (5% yield) expected sp of 20p.

Thankfully we know that the DFS is a decade (and $2000/oz) out of date, and that the open-pit mine is open in multiple directions, and we also have a 1moz+ under-ground mine to dig up.

Bonkers, feel free to reference where in my calculations I said that this was the first year?

What was that you were saying about mirrors and arguing?

PS any word of your NPV calculation showing me how 1p (£80m) is fair value for 1moz of gold reserve?

You think that because KEFI didn't reaffirm that there won't be a placing (even though they have repeatedly recently said that they would seek to preserve shareholder value, and seek alternative forms of finance because they can no longer go to the stock markets), in an RNS that was about nothing to do with KEFI PLC or KEFI's accounts, that this must mean there is a placing!!

That's a bit of a stretch lol

Bonkers, that's not how number work lol. Don't have an opinion can't have a opinion on numbers. You can have an opinion on the inputs, but you have already gave your input figure of 1moz, yet you refuse to accept the answer that the calculations give you. You're only defence for sticking your head in the sand and not letting facts get in the way of your deramping is to claim "let's not do gold numbers again its really boring"!!

FWIW, the 190koz I used for those calculations is based on slide 11 from that very same presentation you're referencing.

You mean slide 10 (not 9), which references the existing DFS from a decade ago when the price of gold used for analysis was $1,250/oz.

Come back to me when you've did an NPV calculation, even if it is based on your 1moz reserve (already proven to be far too low).

Stringer, KEFI will be producing 190,000oz of gold with an AISC circa $1,000 and gold prices likely knocking on the door of $4,000 by then.

To be conservative, let's say $3,000 gold price, so $2,000/oz profit. That is a profit of $380m per year, $304m to KEFI PLC (£243m).

With a typical payout ratio of 50%, that is £122m / 8b share = 1.53p per share dividend.

Are you telling me that a share paying out 1.5p every year, is only going to cost 1p to buy?

With a 1.5p dividend, and a 5% yield (again typical for miners), you would expect to see a sp of 30p (1.5p/5%).

Remember that this is based on $3,000/oz gold price. At $4,000/oz that goes to 2.3p per share dividend, and 46p per share.

People simply can't comprehend the value of what KEFI have. They seem transfixed on our current sp and putting glass ceilings in place for themselves.

Eventually those people will sell for a couple of pennies, and new investors without the trauma of the last ten years will be able to see clearly without the blinkers on.