Member Info for Stebo

"no chance of next week"

That's very absolute for somebody who knows very little about HoPR lol

Sounds a lot like the words on a person hoping for a cheeky little top up tomorrow morning lol

Https://ethiopianbusinessreview.net/category/daily-news/

This article says that it has been ratified - "The Council also ratified Ethiopia’s move to join the African Finance Corporation (AFC)"

All I can say is run the numbers.

1.7moz (likely rising to well over 3moz) gold

sub-$1,000 AISC

over-$3,000 gold price

Run those numbers and tell that the current levels of risk are worth a 90% discount!!

I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is the last trading day before we hear of Ratification being formally sorted (Monday being bank holiday)

I presume that is 3p by end of June, but pre-signing of detailed definitive documentation?

If ratification is now sorted, and gets the parliamentary tick in the next few days, we could be at 3p a whole lot sooner than that imo!

Yep - https://www.fanamc.com/english/amp/council-of-ministers-approves-key-economic-regulations-forwards-major-draft-proclamations-to-parliament76159-2/

Wow. Could this be it? (runs off to do some digging!)

Stringer, more a sense of exacerbation as to why other people seem to be so oblivious as to the prospect here vs how crazy under-valued we are.

I'm starting to think that we will only begin to realise fair value once TK is paying out dividends. If I've to continue to accumulate until then I suppose I shouldn't complain as I could retire from my job in three years time!

I completely get that Stringer, but I'm just not sure that we're ever going to have one big "sign-off" event.

Bank loan: this is $240m which will be drawn down in stages. It has already been approved and did nothing to the sp

EG $20m: this has already been committed and the EG are currently spending this, building roads and re-settling communities

BCM $23m: was announced on Monday and the sp didn't take any notice (a contribution of nearly 50% of our mcap, and it did nothing!!!)

Remaining sum: $22m sounds like its secured as announced yesterday, and it seems like the rest will be raised from Ethioprefs as and when we need it.

Finance is, for all intents and purposes, now sorted.... but it seems like people refuse to believe it. I'm not sure how much more KEFI intend to do, or can do, to convince people about this?

Regarding Crazytowner's list:

AFC ratification seems to be touted as the catalyst, but it will come and go, and there will no movement in any contracts, etc at KEFI's end, because the lump sum prices are still being reworked. I worry that it might be a completely damp squib.

Financial sign-off. This has already happened. The loans have been approved subject to various conditions. I reckon that those conditions will just be met and the loans will be drawn down when required (towards the back end of construction to mitigate interest cost). I'm not sure that there will be any big dramatic sign-off, and it sounds like as far as KEFI is concerned it's all approved already.

First funds drawdown: EG are already spending their commitment and it has done nothing for the sp to date.

FWIW the point I am making is that these things have happened and we should be much much higher. I feel like people are waiting for some kind of final final assurance, which they might still be waiting for while the mine is already half built!

Hopefully I am completely wrong, and something will spark a reality check. I feel like nowadays people buy or sell on AIM based on price and price movement, instead of inherent value, which is likely keeping the sp down now but will mean a huge explosion once we do start to correct.

Dvharrison.

All depends what you mean, or are expecting, by finance sign-off.

TDB sign-off - this has already been approved

AFC sign-off - this has already been approved

AFC ratification perhaps? - but this maybe won't be seen as "sign-off"

Even if bank loans are signed off, this still leaves the BCM, local investors, Ethioprefs - does the market also want to see something in writing regarding these?

Perhaps it is the detailed definitive documentation? - but these will come with obligations and conditions, so perhaps the market naysayers still won't be satisfied?

etc, etc, etc.

I feel like people have built up in their heads that there is going to be some grand reveal and signing ceremony, with a big fat cheque for $320m being handed over to KEFI. It doesn't work like that. It's an ongoing process of securing finance in packages, and drawing that down at different stages, along with the development works progressing. There won't be a line in the sand moment that everybody can say "it's done".

Instead it is a continual process of approvals and agreements, and works being completed bit by bit. These things have already been happening all year, including some massive ones like loan finance, EG commencing enabling works and moving the community, BCM and local investors now confirmed as providing finance, etc. ..... and yet the sp isn't reacting. In fact with the price of gold rocketing, yet the sp staying still, you could argue that the markets are actually applying even more risk to KEFI proposition than it was 6 months ago!!!

There will always be an excuse to be sceptical or for Bonkers to read between the lines of each RNS and find a way to catastrophize..... and before you know it we'll have the mine half built and still be 0.5p!

Bonkers, you were wrong. Just because you had dreamed up some conspiracy theory reasons for why you might have been right, doesn't really change the fact that you were wrong. It's okay to be wrong, but to be completely proven wrong and then keep telling yourself that you're not wrong because is worrying.

Again you also seem to be unable to comprehend that a sp prediction is following an event. If that event hasn't yet happened, then that doesn't prove the sp prediction wrong.

And yet again you've went trawling through old posts to try and "score points". You have a complete misconception about what this forum is, and you're play a little game all by yourself that nobody else is interested in.

And for what it's worth your post sums you up correctly.... "trying to score points"

You seem to think that LSE is some kind of competitive debating society, where you keep scores and try to score points, etc. lol

Bonkers you're just digging that hole deeper. I get that you look foolish now that you have been proven completely wrong, but you had came up with a few reasons to convince yourself of your own conspiracy theory, so don't worry about it.

What actually turned out to be the case just reinforces that KEFI and ARTAR have a great relationship, and that the offer of GMCO (which is still on the table) is actually just as KEFI are saying - "the Company has received significant interest in its Saudi portfolio and will now continue these discussions with the benefit of time prior to finalising with its Saudi majority partner, ARTAR, the course of action deemed to provide the greatest value to the Company."

But instead of learning your lesson, you're at it again insinuating that PWM "pulled out" lol. During the re-tendering process (which was well explained in interviews) to get refreshed lump sum offers, BCM have taken the opportunity to pull the rug from under PWM's feet. This is hugely to KEFI's advantage, who have no doubt now received a more commercially competitive offer, along with a partner who wants to chip in with finance to take advantage of the project.

GMCO is still for sale, but we now have another ace up our sleeve. Instead of being the motivated seller in a deal, we're now sitting content and speaking to motivated buyers.

It is not 'being on my high horse' to tell somebody that perhaps they should spend less time dreaming up 'worst case conspiracy scenarios', and instead perhaps just take a few more things at face value. KEFI is not a bogeyman that is out to screw you Bonkers. They're an explorer, about to turn miner, who have did everything they can to get to where they are now at, which is providing everybody with a huge opportunity to become incredibly wealthy of what they have achieved over the last ten years. I know that's an unpopular opinion among LTH, but very soon there are going to be a raft of new investors who will be forward looking and excited about the next 5 to 10 years of KEFI.

Robjm66, so long as KEFI got fair market value for it, I was content with either outcome. At the end of the day we are either going to have a couple of mines in the pipeline, or we were going to have cash in the bank, which we would be using for exploration (fast-tracking the TK underground mine imo) that would also hopefully pay huge dividends.

We have literally 'struck gold' at all time high gold prices. It's a win-win situation, that the market seems to be unable to comprehend yet.

It's crazy how Monday's RNS was a huge de-risking event, yesterday's Edison interview got right into the sp projections (incredibly positive - x20 returns in months), yesterdays VOX interview revealed that we've another $22m-$30m pretty much secured from local investors, we got really detailed timelines, etc........ and yes the sp is down.

Couldn't make it up, but the correction will come and the spring is just getting coiled tighter and tighter. The re-rate is going to be epic!

For all of the naysayers who like to bang on about how useless Harry and the KEFI board are, perhaps they would appreciate KEFI being nothing more than a minority stakeholder passenger on multiple SA projects. Even if all it gives investors is an opportunity to get exposure to ARTAR projects, that's not a bad thing in itself.

I agree with that Crazytowner.

What KEFI have done is put GMCO in the shop window, generated interest in GMCO and in KEFI, and ascertained a 'worst case scenario' price for GMCO. If we get any surprises or something unexpected comes out of the woodwork at TK, we now have phone-numbers and submitted bids from a range of potential customers with very deep pockets who we could fast-track a deal with.

It's a safety net, and therefore another potential TK risk (say for instance the final tender submissions from Lycopodium come in higher than expected) that has now been mitigated. But at the same time we are protecting the very lucrative SA upside. The only reason people were bidding for GMCO was because they know there is a lot of money to be made there in the next 5 - 10 years. If we can hold onto that it protects KEFI as a company for the long-term.

Crazytowner, that’s a great point about it clearly not being a compulsory sale, or something that was forced by ARTAR. We were told continuously that it was a bad thing that KEFI was selling GMCO, and that the only reason we would ever do that was because ARTAR had invoked their entitlement to compulsory purchase to screw KEFI.

That was clearly bullshyt

Now that we’re potentially keeping it, again there’s a new wave of negativity of “oh, Kefi couldn’t find a buyer” or “SA is just an expensive commitment that will cripple us”.

Some people will just be determined to try and spread fear and negativity, no matter what the news is.

The $240m won't be released to KEFI at all. It will be released is phased draw-downs to TKGM, commencing about Oct, or Nov I would expect.

The more pressing issue is that the definitive documentation can't be signed until ratification is in place to make it a legally binding contract, but that won't be until end of June, so until end of June ratification isn't critical. It will still be nice to see it out of the way, but if you think that diggers will be rolling into TK the day after ratification, or that they will be handing KEFI a cheque for $240m any time soon, then you're wildly wrong.

I still think that GMCO will be sold and I am now more confident than ever that it will be minimum of $70m, possibly now much, much higher.