Member Info for Stebo

@manu, I see you're struggling with English ....... or perhaps you're just being devious

Burgeseb, what a load of nonsense lol

Bonkers, this isn’t comparing apples with apples. In Dec we already had all the documentation in place and ministry of finance approval in place.

It’s not that relevant, because obviously Ethiopia is taking longer than I expected, but if I’m really bored next week I’ll send you a few examples where it took much shorter durations, just because I think the questions you have posed are quite good. They are a bit loaded though, so I expect KEFI won’t publish them I’m afraid.

Bonkers your whole focus and understanding is back to front.

The whole premiss of investing / trading is that you spot an opportunity that you believe the market has gotten wrong. You invest in it and you wait for the market to realise they're wrong and for the valuation to correct. Once it has corrected then it's too late.

So to answer your question, the market has gotten it wrong. The market is so wounded by the last 5 -10 years of KEFI that it is overly suspicious and cynical, and therefore blinded to the obvious. This is the opportunity. Take emotion and cynicism out of the analysis, and use this as your edge to beat the market.

If you are using the market valuation as a measure of worth, then the only scenario that will satisfy your query is when news has been released, the sp has 10x, and then you can say "oh look, KEFI actually is going to be a success"...... unfortunately at that stage you won't be a success because you've missed your opportunity to take advantage.

And in regard to risk. The value of the project is £billions, yet our mcap is £40m.

Do you really think that risk of TK not happening is currently 99%?

Yes there's risk, but it's more like 2%-5% tops.

The point of the post is the massive void between actual value and market valuation. I actually nearly spat out my tea laughing when I was catching up on some recent messages and seen people mention 2p exit strategies, etc lol.

KEFI is either going to be bought out (7p-10p imo), go completely bust, or in two years we will be selling mined gold, paying dividends and easily be well over 20p per share.

Forget all the "but Harry stole my dinner-money", nobody trusts KEFI, etc, etc...... people simply aren't getting what we are sitting on here. KEFI is about to be come incredibly profitable. The rising price of gold, TK project launch, financing though non-diluting means, sale of GMCO, etc...... it really is turning into the perfect storm!

Don't let the current share-price fool you. The market will react when it is too late. Do the maths and figure out the value of what you have before you sell it. Don't let some Johnny-come-lately get the really benefit of your years of patience, investment and research.

No Bonkers, the point of the post is to highlight that HUUUGE gap between the logical intrinsic value of KEFI and the current mcap.

https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/files/KEFI-Tulu-Kapi-Gold-Project-Overview-March25.pdf

It's a 1.62moz JORC Resource, with cut-offs based on a $1,400/oz gold price. This easily rised to well over 2moz at real-world gold prices.

The current underground mine has already been assessed as +1moz

It is easily a 3moz mine, and very likely much much larger.

3Moz of Gold at a likely $4,000-$5,000/oz over the project life = £13.5b

Low, low AISC of circa $1,000/oz - £3b costs

Profit = $10.5b

KEFI's 80% (min) = $8.4b = £6.3b = 76p per share!!!

current mcap = £40m and 0.5p per share!!!!!

It is crazy that the current mcap is only £40m, which we can only thank Harry's method for getting KEFI to the starting line for....... but the value of TK cannot be ignored. Eventually KEFI is going to explode and the re-rate, when it comes, is going to be EPIC. People in two years time will be using "look what happened with KEFI" to ramp other junior miners, because KEFI will become as much of a household name, for it's share-price action, as the likes of Gamestop.

Value is massive, risk is now minimal, logically the sp should already be well over 5p, even pre finance. The longer the markets take to get over HAA's historical stink, the tighter the spring is getting coiled. Anybody thinking that 2p is a good exit point is going to someday be sitting telling their grand-kids about how close they were to becoming very wealthy, but sold too early :-D

It's only a matter of time....... I can feel positivity starting to swell and the ground beginning to rumble

:-)

FWIW MF2017, if you really do hold £60k worth of KEFI, I would strongly suggest you take independent advice or spend some time self-learning or researching. That is a whole lot of shares, and if you were to sell at 2p, and see 5p a week later, 10p a month later and eventually 20p, it would be a really sickening misjudgement to make.

Fantasy, I know you're making mischief, as you can see the mcaps in my calculations.

Obviously if there is any share buy-back then the sp will change in line with the shares in issue. The sp calculated is based on 825b shares. There are currently 8b shares in issue, but the max amount if all warrants are converted is 825b.

MF2017, just to clarify, my 25p-ish sp includes for a 10% discount for time, a 10% discount for mcap vs NPV variance, 20% jurisdictional risk, and 10% general investing risk allowance.

It is based on post-finance being secured, but everybody is able to make their own risk allowance for that. If you think that its 50:50 likelihood, then the sp should be 12p pre-finance, based on 50% risk allowance. This is why I said that there is currently a 98% risk factor, which imo is crazy and is the reason that I think KEFI is hugely under-valued and a great investment.

The other thing to note, is that the 25p takes no account of sentiment, as I have mentioned. "Theoretically" we should not be 0.5p, and in fact imo even 5p would be really under-valued..... but we are. This is why it is difficult to put a time frame on how long the market will remain "wrong" about KEFI. IMO worst case is that we get to a point where KEFI is paying dividends. If the sp hasn't corrected by then, then a low sp would create a huge dividend yield, which would likely correct at that stage, if not before.

The 25p is based on having patience and trust that the market will eventually correct itself. In a similar vein though, often when companies see rapid rises, the sentiment turns over-bullish, and KEFI could easily go way beyond 25p if the sentiment is there. With Gold way above the $3,000/oz in my calculation, and the risk allowances and other factors in my calculation are very conservative. It would be easy for a more bullish investor to run more optimistic calculations and get closer to 40p.

Stringer, in theory everybody would be well educated and informed about the real value of KEFI, and nobody would sell until close to that value is realised.

In reality though, there are investors like MF2017, with a substantial £60k holding, who seem like they would be more than pleased with 3p+. Those folk will sell, which will slow down the re-rate, but other investors will buy and enjoy the rise from 3p upwards.

It's all so sentiment driven, which buggers up all the nice clean binary calculations. The formulas don't take into account people's emotional response, and "feeling" like a sp seems high / reasonable lol

KEFI is at 0.5p because the market thinks that it has time. Until it starts moving upwards, it won't move upwards, if that makes sense. There is also a historic fear of placement, which so the market wants to buy just before the rise, but not be exposed by holding up until that point.

All of this means that when the sp starts to rise, it will really start to move.

The 26p is the fully corrected sp, which I do think we will eventually get to, but it will take time.

Because KEFI is so HUGELY undervalued, when the sp starts to rise, a large majority of holders (particularly LTH) will "feel" like they've hit the jackpot when they 5x or 10x or whatever.

It will be like GGP, when loads of early investors, who bought for a fraction of a penny, sold at 2p and thought they did well.... only for the price to go on up to near 40p once those early investors had cleared and a new batch bought in.

Any early investors who seen it through to the big sp did really really well, but in reality it was obvious that it would happen. I expect KEFI to be the same. It will get to 20s eventually, but how long it takes will depend on how fickle the early investors are, and whether they really understand the worth of what they own.

Stringer, it is 1.05mos reserve, but MREof 1.72Moz indicated and inferred (JORC Compliant), plus an estimated additional million oz in the under-ground mine.

MF2017, all of your Valuations seem to just come from what somebody has said. Like when you say: "KEFI near-term market cap: £60-65M (Tulu Kapi + discounted Saudi)", what is that based on? Have you just plucked £60-65m out of thin air?

I feel like a lot of your predictions are based on starting from where we currently are (which is crazy btw), and then applying a "sentiment index" to that based on upcoming events.

My personal opinion is that this is a completely incorrect approach, and therefore the resulting forecasts are not really relevant.

PS This isn't a personal attack on your approach. I actually find it reassuring that you at least have some kind of approach at arriving at a forecast.

mf2017, you're still missing the point.

instead of calculating npv, you are just deciding npv. dividing npv by shares in issue is not a calculation lol

how about this for a ***-packet calculation:

kefi's 15% of gmco:

jibal qutman - 900,000oz, plus copper, zinc & silver = 2.1moz aue

hawiah & godeyer - 745,000oz (hawiah) and 78,000oz (godeyer), plus copper, zinc & silver = 2.9moz aue

17nr other licenses

wsmb artar-han**** jv

so 5moz of aue, plus the other licenses.

historically (over the last decade) a rate of $80/oz would be a typical sale price for "in the ground" gold. but this is in the ground in sa, with artar & han**** as partners, and also current gold prices are roughly double the ten year average. i personally don't think it is unreasonable to expect close to $200/oz for gmco sale, but to be conservative, lets say $133/oz (or £100/oz).

5moz x £100 x 15% ownership = £75m

next lets look at tulu kapi.

tulu kapi dfs is based on 1.72moz from the open-pit mine,

plus an estimated further 1moz from underground mine

so 2.72moz au in total (likely to grow)

if we conservatively take the average price of gold across the mine life at $3,000/oz (could easily be $5,000/oz in ten years time!), and the aisc is estimated as $1,094/oz.

2.72moz x ($3000 - $1094) = $5,184,320,000

assuming (conservatively) kefi only hold onto 80% then this becomes:

$5,184,320,000 x 80% = $4,147,456,000 = £3,131,391,491 or roughly £3.13b

applying a industry typical 10% discount for time this comes to £2.82b

allowing for 8.25b shares in issue this then comes to a share-price equivalent of:

gmco - £75m / 8.25b = 0.9p

tulu kapi - £2.82b / 8.25b = 34p

i would then apply the following risk allowances, which only apply to tk:

typical mcap discount to npv @ 10%

jurisdictional risk @ 20%

general mining risk @ 10%

total risk allowance = 40%

therefore a reasonable sp estimate is:

34p x 60% = 20.4p, plus gmco @ 0.9p = 21.3p

a second approach that i like to run as a sanity check is a p/e ratio calculation on what the profits will be from tk. we are planning to be mining 2,000kt per year = circa 180koz.

180koz x ($3,000 - $1,094) x 80% = $274,464,000 = £207,142,641 per year

if we take a conservative p/e ratio of 10. 10 x £207,142,641 = £2,071,426,410 or £2b

per share this would then be 25.1p, plus gmco @ 0.9p = 26p

both of these calculation methodologies come to the same general conclusion, which is that kefi, when de-risked, will conservatively be worth circa 21p - 26p per share (based on $3k/oz). if gold increases a lot then this will also increase a lot.

at the minute the sp is at 0.5p, due to the risk of finance not happening. to get from 25p to 0.5p, that is a risk factor of 98%. so, currently kefi is priced as though there is a 98% chance that the finance is going to fall through and not happen. this is crazy imo, and if anything i would say that it is more like 98% likely to happen

MF, that's not a calculation. You're just deciding on a value and then dividing it by the shares in issue. There's no point in me even trying to start going through your numbers, because the bare zero relevance to reality and are just valuations you have plucked out of thin air.

If you want to do an actual calculation, why not value the RE less the AISC, multiplied by discount for time and risk allowance.

Or perhaps look through the DFS and take the annual estimated profit, and then work that back via a P/E calculation?

What you have done is not a calculation, it's just a contrived guess.

MF2017 - Can you please post your calcs that you have to show 1.2p to 2p sp prediction?

I'd love to compare them to my own and figure out why or where I am getting is so hugely wrong.

Thanks

Crazytowner, watch for the flip-flop from Bonkers.

I believe he has finally make his investment and is laying the groundwork for a change in his sentiment. Everybody (even bonkers) can now see that AFC ratification is definitely happening, and likely very soon. This will be his justification for flip-flopping.

I don't believe that he is stupid (nobody could be stupid enough to genuinely think that GMCO will be given away for only a few million lol), so he is clearly just being disingenuous, as you say. It's proper slime-ball material to try and influence other people towards losing a lot of money, for the sake of trying to save a slither of a few percent on his own investment.

Sorry bonkers, you seem to treat investing as some kind of sport or something. I'm here to make money, not get one over some stranger on the internet or whatever.

Did the recent youtube video from the AFC symposium give you any confidence that AFC ratification is now happening soon? There were a couple of quote from that which alluded that this is the case, and perhaps the fact that they came from both the AFC chair, and also Chief Executive Officer of Ethiopian Investment Holding (Government of Ethiopia's strategic investment arm)?

If we see an announcement in the coming weeks to confirm AFC ratification, do you expect the sp to rise? Perhaps to levels where another small placement wouldn't even really be a concern anyway?