Member Info for Stebo

For all of the naysayers who like to bang on about how useless Harry and the KEFI board are, perhaps they would appreciate KEFI being nothing more than a minority stakeholder passenger on multiple SA projects. Even if all it gives investors is an opportunity to get exposure to ARTAR projects, that's not a bad thing in itself.

I agree with that Crazytowner.

What KEFI have done is put GMCO in the shop window, generated interest in GMCO and in KEFI, and ascertained a 'worst case scenario' price for GMCO. If we get any surprises or something unexpected comes out of the woodwork at TK, we now have phone-numbers and submitted bids from a range of potential customers with very deep pockets who we could fast-track a deal with.

It's a safety net, and therefore another potential TK risk (say for instance the final tender submissions from Lycopodium come in higher than expected) that has now been mitigated. But at the same time we are protecting the very lucrative SA upside. The only reason people were bidding for GMCO was because they know there is a lot of money to be made there in the next 5 - 10 years. If we can hold onto that it protects KEFI as a company for the long-term.

Crazytowner, that’s a great point about it clearly not being a compulsory sale, or something that was forced by ARTAR. We were told continuously that it was a bad thing that KEFI was selling GMCO, and that the only reason we would ever do that was because ARTAR had invoked their entitlement to compulsory purchase to screw KEFI.

That was clearly bullshyt

Now that we’re potentially keeping it, again there’s a new wave of negativity of “oh, Kefi couldn’t find a buyer” or “SA is just an expensive commitment that will cripple us”.

Some people will just be determined to try and spread fear and negativity, no matter what the news is.

The $240m won't be released to KEFI at all. It will be released is phased draw-downs to TKGM, commencing about Oct, or Nov I would expect.

The more pressing issue is that the definitive documentation can't be signed until ratification is in place to make it a legally binding contract, but that won't be until end of June, so until end of June ratification isn't critical. It will still be nice to see it out of the way, but if you think that diggers will be rolling into TK the day after ratification, or that they will be handing KEFI a cheque for $240m any time soon, then you're wildly wrong.

I still think that GMCO will be sold and I am now more confident than ever that it will be minimum of $70m, possibly now much, much higher.

The banks weren't closed out until earlier this year. That then set in motion a process of sequential events. AFC's ratification has no impact on any of those, and so long as it is sorted before everything else is ready to sign, then it's not delaying things.

If AFC had been ratified two years ago, we would still be in this same place regarding the development of TKGM.

If you can't wrap your head around that then I can't help you I'm afraid.

Why don't you check KEFI's own Q&A....... "we have been advised by the highest Government officials that we can rely on that process being completed such that it will not in any way hold up the launch. That is the reality"

Just like I have been saying for months, ratification is currently not on the critical path, and therefore EG is not delaying anything, and ratification being place is a de-risking event, not an accelerating event.

Bonkers, it is not holding anything up yet. You don't seem to understand the programme and the process.

If it was in place, we still wouldn't have any further progress on the loan. There's a process that's being followed. So long as AFC ratification is within the next month or so then it won't have delayed anything.

Having AFC ratification in place a year ago would have made zero difference to TKGM progress. We are now at the pointy end so it is starting to get important to get it sorted, but it is still not critical.

Stringer, ratification is not holding anything up currently.

Ratification will help KEFI's share-price, as it de-risks things for the cynics, but the reality for those on the ground and the EG is that so long as it happens before it becomes critical, then it's of no real consequence.

Stringer, you're literally making the investment case for everybody.

"Logically the sp should be much, much higher....... but it isn't"

I know what I do when I see opportunities like that lol. The KEFI sp will correct itself, and it is looking very likely that this will be soon. The way to make money with stocks and shares is to identify something that the market has gotten wrong and is significantly under-value, buy as much of it as you can afford and then wait for the correction, which always eventually comes.

Everybody agrees that KEFI sp is absolutely ridiculously low in comparison to even the most risk adverse and conservative NPV, so there is only two outcomes.... either the market has some inside info and knows something we don't, or the market is currently wrong and there is an imminent huge re-rate coming in the form of a correction.

Rob, Also worth noting that PWM (although a British / Irish company) have a huge setup in Ghana too, so they'll be dealing with the same issues.

Fukutu, that is a great point. Perhaps if Lycopodium (or more likely PWM imo) are now off the scene, perhaps they'd build a bit of a position which they are now off-loading as they won't have the control that they thought they would. Would be nice if this RNS coincided with the end of that bulk selling that we've need for the last month or two.

Bonkers, I feel that it all makes a lot more sense if you keep in the back of your head that there are multiple negotiations ongoing with various different parties, in two different countries. Harry's caught between informing shareholders clearly, and revealing too much of his own hand.

I suspect that BCM have been in the frame for a long time, but if Harry had revealed that we didn't need to sell GMCO then he wouldn't have received any bids for it. My reason for suggesting this is that KEFI instructed all contractors to begin preparations nearly a month ago. Presumably this was BCM that they were talking to, but this had to be kept under wraps for the sake of GMCO negotiations.

Therefore it stands to reason that as KEFI are now announcing that they may no longer sell GMCO, they have either now received all GMCO offer, or perhaps they are in the final throws of negotiations and this is a way of ensuring that those on the other side of the table don't think that KEFI are desperately in need of the money. The other thought is, why would Harry want / need to get written bid valuations for GMCO (just as PoG is rocketing). Perhaps this is something to keep in the back-pocket in case ARTAR try to force a buyout, or perhaps it is related to securing finance for the GMCO project for further exploration.

Definitely a hugely positive RNS (how could securing finance for nearly half our mcap not be!), but as you say, it asks as many questions as it answers. It leaves me intrigued, but it a good way. I'm expecting a lot more news in the coming days.

Bonkers, regarding PWM and lycopodium, their arrangement was different to what has now been agreed with BCM. I suspect that the mining works have now been re-tendered and BCM have came in with a better offer than PWM's final lump sum price. I assume that Lycopodium are still the processing contractor, and that PW Mining are being replaced by BCM, but there could be all sorts of arrangements. Perhaps BCM are now in as Main Contractor with PWM and Lycopodium in as Nominated Subcontractors.

I presume that when KEFI said last month that they had told contractors to prepare for mobilisation, that they were referring to BCM, so this would suggest that KEFI have had this sorted for some time.

@manu, I see you're struggling with English ....... or perhaps you're just being devious

Burgeseb, what a load of nonsense lol

Bonkers, this isn’t comparing apples with apples. In Dec we already had all the documentation in place and ministry of finance approval in place.

It’s not that relevant, because obviously Ethiopia is taking longer than I expected, but if I’m really bored next week I’ll send you a few examples where it took much shorter durations, just because I think the questions you have posed are quite good. They are a bit loaded though, so I expect KEFI won’t publish them I’m afraid.

Bonkers your whole focus and understanding is back to front.

The whole premiss of investing / trading is that you spot an opportunity that you believe the market has gotten wrong. You invest in it and you wait for the market to realise they're wrong and for the valuation to correct. Once it has corrected then it's too late.

So to answer your question, the market has gotten it wrong. The market is so wounded by the last 5 -10 years of KEFI that it is overly suspicious and cynical, and therefore blinded to the obvious. This is the opportunity. Take emotion and cynicism out of the analysis, and use this as your edge to beat the market.

If you are using the market valuation as a measure of worth, then the only scenario that will satisfy your query is when news has been released, the sp has 10x, and then you can say "oh look, KEFI actually is going to be a success"...... unfortunately at that stage you won't be a success because you've missed your opportunity to take advantage.

And in regard to risk. The value of the project is £billions, yet our mcap is £40m.

Do you really think that risk of TK not happening is currently 99%?

Yes there's risk, but it's more like 2%-5% tops.

The point of the post is the massive void between actual value and market valuation. I actually nearly spat out my tea laughing when I was catching up on some recent messages and seen people mention 2p exit strategies, etc lol.

KEFI is either going to be bought out (7p-10p imo), go completely bust, or in two years we will be selling mined gold, paying dividends and easily be well over 20p per share.

Forget all the "but Harry stole my dinner-money", nobody trusts KEFI, etc, etc...... people simply aren't getting what we are sitting on here. KEFI is about to be come incredibly profitable. The rising price of gold, TK project launch, financing though non-diluting means, sale of GMCO, etc...... it really is turning into the perfect storm!

Don't let the current share-price fool you. The market will react when it is too late. Do the maths and figure out the value of what you have before you sell it. Don't let some Johnny-come-lately get the really benefit of your years of patience, investment and research.

No Bonkers, the point of the post is to highlight that HUUUGE gap between the logical intrinsic value of KEFI and the current mcap.

https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/files/KEFI-Tulu-Kapi-Gold-Project-Overview-March25.pdf

It's a 1.62moz JORC Resource, with cut-offs based on a $1,400/oz gold price. This easily rised to well over 2moz at real-world gold prices.

The current underground mine has already been assessed as +1moz

It is easily a 3moz mine, and very likely much much larger.