Member Info for Ste2000

honestly cant believe how they keep getting away with dropping the SP so hard on open when there is no volume
scandalous

SP dropped on a sell of 727 shares - it dropped 1p...mad crazy how little support this company has from the wider market

incredible lack of interest today - big risk as shorts can sell a few K to drop 4/5p

I agree with you stockbroker, I m ok with the Market punishing THG when there is logic (such as missed revenue or ebitda/ shareholders selling down or moulding hyperbole), but it is clear THG have done well over cyber week

anyway, chance to buy

Gotta be honest - market has totally got THG SP wrong today
so clear online retail nailed it over cyber wekeend (esp clothing) - THG have clearly had a good one.
this is now too cheap
cant believe market makers have gone with China to now bring down THG
does goes to prove that THG leadership need to improve their 'story' with the City

Golden, as usual, is right. Moulding did say this in the H1 analyst call - unfortunately it is yet another example of his hyperbole. a quality no CEO should have

Hi Novice - in a nutshell, I have serious doubts on THG ability to manage FCF - I think in their 19 year history they have only made a (small) profit once or twice
I understand the argument with growth companies etc etc, but I dont like how moulding always talks topline and has repeatedly disappointed on ebitda (even when they report adjusted ebitda which I also dont like as they adjust it)

makrey things thg do ebitda (after saas 8m hit ) of circa 98m - if thg hit their topline 130, this will rereate as it shows they have listened
if not, its another black mark against a FCF negative company, who in 3 years have lost 1/2 a billion in FCF!!

i think 80m or so is on ingenuity platform costs - i suppose this is continuous improvements to the warehouse management / coding/ etc etc
i m not too up-to-speed on this, but it is clearly excessive based on how small 1/ ingenuity is 2/ ingenuity commerce is
this is why they needed to do M&A to dilute it, or get more whales for commerce. clearly in 2023, they have failed to do either, and with the nutiriton price protection, their ebitda has taken a big hit, hence SP at circa 60/70s

if this changes for the good, 100p-130p seems very achievable by 2023 results in april

Hi Oke, capex wise they have guided to 5.5-6.5% for mid term (of which I think 3% is reoccuring capex, and circa 80m is for ingenuity - this gas to actually win some significant business soon - circa 45-60m for commerce is a failure)

2024 ebitda should be 250m+ IMO (i have 257m)

TBF Moniman - I know you are long, and wish you good luck with the big profits.

says the chap who thought shorttracker showed all short positions hahahahah
think it was me that helped show you the error of your ways - such gratitude

Unfortunately Stevescott this share is at the mercy of bots - so you can get big swings up and down at any time
dont be surprised to see -8 to 9% drop by close

and helps explain why they love to short it - share dropped 2% and only 30k shares were sold in last 10 mins - thats craxy on a float of 1.4bn shares!!!

I think thats why the City hate this company - moulding and his senior team are so prone to hyperbole
businesses should under promise, over delivery - THG has done the opposite over the last 9 months or so
thats why it is pretty personal between the city and mould/ thg

Coldspy, you do realise the US market is open today when he UK stock market is open. It closes in their afternoon
However, the sell off does seem harsh so far, led by shorts and Algo trades
If buying power comes in, could easily reverse, otherwise -5%/ under 70p at close is not unreasonable given wider sector

Morning Oke, Q3 across all of retail was a disaster for companies who didnt implement pricing
Q4 looks much better in volume as well as value (source mastercard) - THG could surprise on their Q4 like AO did in their release this week

but it depends if Mould delivers not only topline, but the important bottomline at the higher end of expectations

re 250m ebita, it is very possible if they simply cut admin and staff costs. even now if they could just get to 8.5-9% with their sales, they are almost there...lets see

brewman you fancy to add to the debate, or just name call?
anything written in the post discussion unfactual, then lets have a debate. debate is good
name calling is just sad

Lipstick factor is an important investment case in a recession.

L'oreal Q3 growth of +9% is very strong; when then did THG beauty only grow +4.9% in same period? answer, unlike loreal, THG has limited pricing power, hence also the 'price protection' for Nutrition.

they need to get to min 250m ebita to break even - they will need to find pricing power or grow ingenuity

hope you dont use that mouth with your wife/ husband - terrible

sensible exit price - hope you get it.
2.50 isnt unreasonable for a MBO if its Moulding backed by Qatar cash with sofina and balderton folding their shares private
ie only circa 55/60% of shares would need to be bought