Member Info for Ste2000

could be with all this bad news, shorts actually use today to close somewhat and you may even see blue at times

yeah my figures show a 36m miss which I think is closable or ok and would show the market they mean business
I think they can achieve the bottom line elements, the risk is how they achieve the topline in this climate
ingenuity commerce HAS to start to deliver or they need to cut it to the bone and save ebitda

and for the love of all that is good, no ecom company )that doesnt own physical stores), should own 3x hotel and spas!!!

on a slightly more positive note:
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said some of the drop could reflect how the data did not include "Cyber Monday" online sales which fell on Nov. 28, which will be included in December's figures.

online sales down -2.8% in Nov, continuing a trend seen since 2021
but are +18.2% above pre pandemic
clothes sales grew but led by instore - with distributions to RM hurting online retailers

Morning Oke,
100% agree Mould has form with being a bit of a wheeler dealer. any TO has to include him and be engineered by him (I still wonder if anything was agreed in person with QIA when he went to Qatar for the WC?)

Beauty - agree with you

RE valuation, they simply have to get FCF positive and reduce their dependence on capex and also acquisitions to grow.
Nutrition excites me as whey is now so low that H1 can afford to stay flat in sales growth, but can deliver circa 20-30m ebitda more - this is a big driver. I just dont hope they spunk it all in growing topline (my big fear is they will)

Ingenuity commerce and ondemand are cons for me until they show the margin they make or start to grow profitable sales.

my concern is will the annual report show write downs to goodwill (reference see Curry update yesterday)

at least King monimum of rampland has had the good grace to not show his face after all this talk/ramping on 3 vulture funds etc
the best hope if you have boight for M&A is MBO with the Mould + qatar+sofina+balderton, which i do believe is absolutely possible.
otherwise, its a hold whilst the macros buffet this

400K worth of shares traded has knocked more than 50m off the market cap of THG
what is the point when the playing field is so uneven??

Monimum is 100% being paid to ramp this share
he lives here and replies in an instance, he also used to use the alias SP28

do you live on here monimum, you defo are a paid ramper, stop costing innocent folk money here

wow, a few well timed algo trades can drop this share at will. from 61p back to 59p in less than 10,000 shares

why dont you rampers buy more if you are so confident - 100k bought so far in value, clearly neither of you have bought
all talk, no walk. and momimum, its rise and fall is circa the same in absolute, you donut

so within less than 5 hours the hut has given back all its gains. without a material improvement in fundamentals, and without a material II interest, this company cannot sustain any SP long term improvement

my bet is THG will now sell down in advance of US reading so if good, it will only jump to circa where is is now (59p) and if bad they can test a new day low (say below 55p)
this company SP is divorced from reality and TOO cheap, but shorts, algos and paid derampers (jokes there is no such thing btw) are in control

it will do better when they actually deliver to the market what they say they will deliver
i did warn when it was circa 70p that the rise was mainly shorts reloading to bring back down, its now 55p
I dont think we will see 32p again (unless the Mould misses Ebitda again) but shorts will aim to take to 50p and below if macro helps

the main issue is THG not only does not generate profit but it cant even show a believable path and time frame to FCF neutral

london stock market is over as a force. its rather embarrassing now. Guess its what happens when you combine oik barroiw boys, snobby raa raas and a lot of the white stuff
good riddance to bad rubbish
moulding should take THG private with Qatar+Sofina+Belerion, and relist in a more progressive stock market in 3-5 years time

100% agree with you, if/ when a proper whale lands or a few fairly big fish, THG will re-rate as ingenuity commerce was meant to be circa 50%-60% margin so very relative and the capacity is all there

btw I think their coke D2C is the best example of what THG do and I would love to see a big alcohol firm like Inbev or Bacardi or Heineken use it (knowing Coke sell alcohol on the coke website so have this as a case study plus the whisky one they have). I also think the new ingenuity CEO, Vivek, comes across very well and seems less of a cowboy and more of a seasoned pro business person then Mould and Gallemore, so there is big hope for ingenuity, but the proof will be in the pudding, and so far it has flopped hence the SOTP not being used by analysts

Canary, the SOTP was based on ingenuity (which should be 225m this year, so not bad) but more so ingenuity commerce which has already flat lined (Q3 was flat on SPLY)
they deperately need to make this work, as it takes a lot of capex and manpower and is delivering circa 50m, so loses money

honestly Steve, I dont know. the company has given no real confidence to the market for THG to perform any better than its competitive set, so will likely drift down unless macros improve (ie inflation surprises to the upside)

my main concern now is FCF as if Mould misses this, I think its fairly terminal for the investment model

That said, joining the premium market, achieving CFC neutral and actually delivering bottom line growth (which is very do -able with almost all input costs reducing) could and should drive share price up. I just worry that Mould is so obsessed with topline sales growth that he will always undeliver on ebitda and FCF

TO with Qatar is very possible as Qatar actually has very limited ecom players (no Amazon or local equivalent for example) so would be amazing if they could use THG for this, but I think that is pie in the sky thinking.
But for what price as 170+ on this current SP is unlikely to be mooted due to the silly high % increase on todays price that would represent

steve, moulding confirmed FCF neutral and FCF positive in H1 2022 results (in mid Sept) and then again in Q3 22 trading update (October)
I ve been working on my cash models for THG, and believe since 2019, they have been FCF negative to the tune of -814m; that is quite crazy on revenue in the same period of 7.3bn. I dont believe the business model can generate positive FCF without turning off any expansionary capex (which essentially limits its ability to grow topline, and thus not allowing operating de-leverage)

its true - i did attack him. the problem with THG is they cannot provide a path to FCF positivity that anyone believes is, let alone a path to profitability.
to be FCF neutral in 2023, they need to generate somwhere in the region of 250m inflows, and no one can show how this can be achieved organically (Oke to be fair showed it may be possible if they sell fixed assets, but this is one off so inorganic actions)

then you have a business model that has never been tested in a recession, but couldnt actually drive any real cash in a boom time

then you have an owner CEO landlord who constantly misses what he boastfully says he will deliver (ingenuity numbers/ bottom line numbers, and now even topline growth this year)

its looking dire to be honest, and any form of TO is looking the best way out of this for most