Member Info for Ste2000

Hi Golden - he basically said strong rumours of MBO at 295P. then the account shut down. then he said he got a cease and desist. account shut down again

seems algos are beginning to stir

on another note, THG cannot sell a division, it would make ingenuity totally unfeasible. they can however, have outside investment for a % of it (such as pepsi did with a rival US nutrition brand) or they could list a divison on another market (like beauty on US)

thats the bit of the article that doesnt make sense
Mouldy has never been an investment banker - he was an accountant
Steve Whitehead was an investment banker pre his job at THG, and Lord Allen has great form at M&A

THG needs to go private, as not sure it can turn a profit or even positive cash flow and that will be punished in this market for the next 12-24 months, and SP likely to stay at low valuation X sales (hence analyst low ball target prices of average 66p)

KBYK - pretty bold statements on things you simply cannot know
Have a read
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/995726/thg-how-likely-is-an-mbo-deal-after-cut-price-share-purchase-for-founder-995726.html

Hi Oke, your numbers look solid
my concern on THG is that (currently) their editda seems to rely on heavily on Nutrition to such an extend that when whey goes up in price, their margin goes down
using price protection as an excuse just suggests the brand has little pricing power

ingenuity I think is responsible for circa up to 100m of capex (based on 2021 annaul report) - that is pretty high for something kicking out circa 200m sales

THG simply have to get back to 10% ebitda asap, and I would be happy for them to sacrifice some topline (pleased to see they did with some ondemand stuff in q3 update)

10% ebitda on 2.5bn gets the 250m ebitda which breaks even

beauty and ingenuity commerce need to kick in with more margin

Oke, to be honest, fully aligned with your ebitda figures and assumptions (just remember to remove the 8m SAAS hit from them)

but for me, FCF is more important and getting to neutral/ positive is vital - the issue here is that they need to generate circa 250m ebitda to break even (assuming 100m finance costs from tax/leases/ interest, 20m adjusted, circa 130m capex)

so if they only achieve 160m ebitda in 2023, how can they be cash flow neutral as moulding has suggested (unless big improvements in working capital)

agreed he could - and should
but he hinted at this in the (in)famous GQ interview over 13 months ago and so far has done nothing - except overseen the SP fall from circa 250p (then) to 60ish, reject a 170P+ offer, lose a number of share holders (JUP/ SOFTBANK/ T ROWE PRICE), see ingenuity commerce FY target go from 108-112 to a guessimate 70m, see cash fall from 530m to 250m etc etc

MBO would be a gift from the gods

it said "strong speculation of support for a 295p MBO"

big things always happen on a Thursday with THG as well.....

city spy has tweeted in the past (and been right) and also has removed tweets when he thought it was market sensitive news - I rate him and the fact he has deleted his account after this makes me think there is substance to it

he has other usernames for other accounts etc - he has always been transparent about this

good grief - you ll be saying you seen aliens and elvis is still alive next

No Ryan F - this is the one that is ****phobic and its implication. This is the one you are under investigation for.

ryanf

Posted in: THG

Posts: 466

Price: 73.40

No Opinion

RE: Shorts are bailing out!15 Nov 2022 10:38
Did he reject you... hard?

rampers always make it so personal as well - why?
some even become bigoted like RyanF

you cant cheat an honest man

thg isnt an honest company

its not having a short or long position, more just a total hatred of rampers who post things like 'when we go through 80p' or take over at 300p, without any rational of why

all the hallmarks of a classic -10% THG day - this share loves them

70p gone
underperforming other ecom retailers today
rampers should be held accountable

its nots shorts selling - its you PI. look at the trades and round numbers
algos waiting to see outcome of missile on poland, to get into 60s etc

drop - no wonder why invest in growth at a time of rsik (war/ inflation/ cash flow negative)

RYANF - this is a ****phobic post and has been logged with the police