Member Info for Starchild

Irene: your last posts to various persons are getting somewhat offensive. Nor am I interested to EVER make a wager with you. I sense frustration on your part as your CFDs going short, may fail.

All: I'm not interested to correspond with Irene further on this matter, however I welcome any feedback to test my opinions from this morning which were based on facts and company presentations. Supported by evidence.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Irene our naughty BPC share-shorting-derivatives-diva: based on the quality of every post you have written, which I have read since the misfortune of coming across you in June, I suspect they were influenced by rather heavy inebriation.including the one where you called my last post utter garbage.

I stand by my potential £200m market-cap ex-CERP assets calculations this morning. It is based on company presentations since august using THEIR revenue figures. 200m quid is a large number. You could personally buy 10m bottles of cheap gin which could last you for a couple of years with that sort of money. As you are no doubt aware Aldi is offering Tutti Frutti gin at only £14/bottle (source www.aldi.co.uk/gin-collection ), so I may have totally underestimated the potential BPC market cap for us AND the gin procurement opportunity for you.

Have a good one.

Starchild (AKA Starfish)

Please refer to yesterday’s very informative presentation by Eytan here: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf

Refer to slide 21 and footnote 3 which states……………2021 goal >$15m NET of applicable royalties / fiscal takes.

Cross reference this with the August presentation slides 27 and 29 which show the same $15m goal with a price model of PoO at only $40/b https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf

1. Now let’s make the following assumptions:
(a) CERP is still a stand-alone public company but has 4 billion shares
(b) It made $15m NET profit per year based on $40/b PoO
(c) It’s expenses are $3m (consistent with 2018 accounts https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Columbus-Energy-Resources-plc-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-2018.pdf )
(d) No debt
(e) To keep it simple: no capital expenditure

Net profit = $12m /£9.3m (exchange rate £1 = £1.30)

2. Now let’s look at P/E ratios……….

Tesla is 60x
Google/Microsoft is 24x
Oil industry (Q4 2019) including mid and small caps was 17x (source https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-pricetoearnings-ratio-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp )

3. Now let's do some maths
At $40/b PoO, BPC (CERP assets only) P/E of 17 x £9.3m = £158m market cap. But what could it be at $50/b? Refer to slide 14 in yesterday’s presentation where it implies current onshore extraction costs are c$20/b. The additional $10/b would be pure profit minus Trinidad gov royalties. For simplicity and approximation I would add another £3m to the annual net profit making it £12.3.

£12.3m x 17 P/E ratio = £209m, but let’s round down to £200m and divide by 4 billion shares……………….. 5p per share.

Bottom line: If the disrespectfully named ex-CERP asset ‘dog’ has cute puppies as planned by the BoD by end of 2021, EXCLUDING Bahamas Percy-1 being a duster or a gusher, we are looking at c£200m market cap from ex-CERP alone. That’s 4-5p!

Despite the potentially game changing Percy-1 spud, and ex-CERP potential, the SP closed at 2.5p again. CONVICTION strong BUY at least leading to spud as the SP is seriously undervalued. But DYOR as it’s just my opinion. Constructive feedback welcome.

Have a great day.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zaggy: based on presentation today I believe no substantial news is expected until December. Traders or persons awaiting for the SP to soar so they can sell-out may have to wait until then. Refer to my previous posts.

I personally don't care as I'm a LTH going all-in for spud. I also believe neither does the BPC BoD, as they are NOT here to answer to the whims of short term shareholders.

Be assured this is not an insult against you. You have made it clear, honestly I believe, what your intentions are. In fact BPC's pre-spud price will likely soar in December. However I don't care if it does or not between tomorrow and December. In the meantime the SP is at the mercy of traders. IMHO, when momentum builds upwards.....lots will join the party. Who will blink first?

I'm in the sidelines watching events.

good luck

Starchild

IMHO, reading between the lines of today’s RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0l08nw …………………..

1. Bizzell CLN many not be required. However BPC has to give notice for at least £1.5m by 15/11 to extend the date. I see this as Bizzell leveraging a ‘pay-to-play’. 60-70m (including interest) shares @2.5p is nothing.

2. If Stena JV happens (or similar supplier such as Halliburton, or any 3rd party) it may NOT need further Bizzell or equivalent CLN on better terms.

3. If Stena JV doesn’t happen (it has until 30/11 to decide), we are still FULLY funded for Percy-1, but unless BPC leverages some $$$, we won’t have money for ‘much else’.

4. If Stena JV doesn’t happen it is hard to gauge today whether we are better or worse off. In theory we are better off by 10% at the asset or share level, UNLESS a CLN or equivalent would have been more dilutive, IF IF IF we need it.

5. What do I mean by ‘much else’ in point 3?

(a) Ex-CERP enhancements, however I believe an RBL can satisfy these following a CPR proving 2P reserves of at least 5m barrels. (currently we have 1m boe, however Saffron 2 potentially has 11.5m boe)

(b) We have c$24m for a spud that will cost $21-25m. PLUS we MAY need $5m contingency. These are stated in the 1/10 RNS after point 5. https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdz1k8w . I assume we will need this $5m if things are going VERY WELL and for example we need to ship off samples for further analysis/deep dive.

(c) Why did I state ‘very well?’ Would Bizzell offer a CLN by January 15 2021, 30 days after spud if Percy-1 was looking very gloomy? NO!

6. Key positive point in today’s RNS…. ‘[if CLN terms not met…] BPC would still have other funding sources available (as detailed in the Company's announcement of 1 October 2020)’.

Bottom line: (a) It is good the BoD gave us an update, however it is neither positive nor negative. (b) It proves the BoD have contingencies in place and they are doing their best for all of us including themselves as shareholders. (c) Strong BUY leading to spud. I don't think markets have realised yet that other than the 1.5m 'pay to play', possibly being used by 15/11, any further CLN draw-down will likely happen AFTER SPUD, IF it happens.

All above IMHO. DYOR. Opinions welcome

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Irene dear, please translate your last post into English, Greek, Latin, Arabic, ancient Hebrew or Australian.

Thank you. Speak tomorrow as almost my bed time where I live.

Starchild

Irene, our naughty BPC daily de-ramping tigress: As usual I have no idea what your latest somewhat incoherent posts were about other than they appeared somewhat flirtatious.

You keep referring to ‘holes’, my ‘pecker’, ‘twitching’, and ‘spudding’ and sometimes appear to use the term ‘starfish’ as a euphemism for my ‘drill-bit’. This is irritating as I’m happily married therefore have no intention to have you as my future ex-wife. Frankly, without wishing to cause you sadness, the CoS of this unlikely betrothal, from today until I leave this world, is around minus 100%.

Changing the subject, may I suggest you remove your shorts ASAP. I imagine they are massive based on your frequent anti-BPC rhetoric to protect your CFDs. I remain permanently ‘long’ in anticipation and extremely excited at this imminent spudding……….. for Percy-1 and Saffron-2.

Respectfully and fondly,

Starchild (AKA ‘Starfish’)
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

'Bottom' line: convictions strong BUY especially as Eytan will be speaking tomorrow.

Petro$: I agree. Although we have had skirmishes over the months I respect JtK as he provides great factual input. My holy text reference was tongue in cheek.

I look forward to the Eytan presentation tomorrow. Regardless whether we get an update RNS in the morning, my last post stated what happened last time EU did.

Starchild

Oultonmike/Petro$: I agree JTK's post was very good for newbies. From experience he is neither a ramper or de-ramper. However I think Jim 12.17 is a little OTT as it sounds like a holy text!

Interesting statistic:

Tomorrow Eytan will be presenting. Last time he gave a presentation was PM on 15/9, uploaded to BPC website later that day. The famous 'watch this space' one. The SP surged from 2.1p to 2.8p on 16/9, despite doubts about Trafalgar share-dumping at the time. It peaked at 3.37p after ups/downs till the end of the month. Then the II placement hit on 1/10/20. [Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L]

I don't care if it does or not, as I'm in for the big drill, however some of you folks do pattern or day trade based on such intel.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Rossannan: thanks for the link. How does it support your argument? Friday before RNS, SP closed 1.5p. Monday of RNS 27/4 reached 2.9p high (almost double!!!), and settled after substantial volume including I assume a lot of profit taking and possibly Lind share dumping.

What exactly are you trying to prove from this excellent RNS based on your posts today?

Apr 27, 2020 1.7500 2.9000 1.7300 1.8250 1.8250 25,768,772
Apr 24, 2020 1.4630 1.6500 1.3490 1.5000 1.5000 1,541,912

Starchild

Rosannan: post the LINK

Tiburn: excellent deep dive and analysis on Cuba pipeline potential if Biden is elected and softens Cuba sanctions .

If i can add to my thought of last week, and by coincidence the environmental post of a few minutes ago..... It will also go down well with Bahamas environmentalists. Could the BGov incentivise BPC and politicise such a move? Could help with election votes using the angle 'we'll get our billions in royalties for the sovereign wealth fund/national debt...while totally protecting the environment.'

incidentally, neither BPC nor Bahamas Gov are answerable to America and can deal with Cuba on this matter direct. Lots of local job creation. Ironically the BPC acreage near Florida could be leveraged to delight the USA anti-drill Bahamas lobby as well.....If the USA chipped in for the Cuba pipeline. One step nearer to global stability involving USA/Cuba (de-facto Russia). Oh well may be I'm dreaming on the peace angle. Yet a pipeline is plausible.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Rossannan: Seriously, the only downside which everyone who has done the slightest research of the BPC investment case will know, is if Percy-1 is a total duster. Nothing else.

However, if a total duster ex-CERP assets should cover us in the medium term at the current SP of 2.5p. I honestly can't find a similar situation or investment case anywhere. I have learned a lot about oil exploration in the last year but do not profess to have the tech skills as some of the oil experts on this BB. However I have invested in shares for decades and have several companies, so I state the above as a business man.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Rossannan; To answer your question if my research throw up any negatives, the answer is yes, after deep dive of below.

See....
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/irenekrapp/
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/rossannan/

sorry mate, could't resist!

Starchild
xxx

Rossannan: BPC released a very useful defence of environmental concerns last week. Well written by an expert Roberta Quant. See https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/14102918/100759-BPC-QA-Doc_FINAL.pdf

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

It is worth noting that the company BPC used to undertake 3D and data acquisition was CGGVeritas, now called CGG. A best-of-breed multi-national 4600 employee company. See https://www.cgg.com/en

If they are/were good enough for Shell and other super-majors, they’re good enough for us. Refer to a brochure which explains the fascinating ways exploration is undertaken using 3D. It is from 2014 to reflect the tech available at the time https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/overcoming-technology-challenges/finding-oil-and-gas/_jcr_content/par/textimage.stream/1519763871115/bb09c37973c5a21a00f9e95015f705e1dae794cf/geophysical-imaging-brochure-2014.pdf

At least we know when Percy-1 gets drilled in a few weeks, and Ury-1 in future (with even better tech), exploration spuds are done after careful in-depth analysis using amazing tools. It increases the chances of success compared to water divination, luck or gut feeling.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Patoir: as stated in-depth in my recent posts, I think final funding will come from a Stena JV and/or a reserve based loan subject to a soon to be done CPR. Saffron 2 has potentially 11m boe, worth IMHO over $100m NPV. We only need around c$10m, mainly for ex-CERP dev most of which isn't needed until 1Q 2021.

Furthermore, RNS after recent II placement stated Bahamas facility NOT required.

I doubt a CLN is now required, unless a tiny one. I could be wrong.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Harel: Thanks for your post. I do not consider my self the most influential poster on this BPC BB. I do a lot of BPC related research as a hobby which i enjoy and also base some on other people's excellent research which I add or expand to.

For the avoidance of doubt:

1. The potential £1B valuation (and more) is AFTER a successful spud result. This is based to a degree on expert professional opinions. Please look back at previous posts for the links.

2. My view of SP leading to spud is actually more conservative than others. And less than the 6p purportedly stated by Investec Bank.

3. This is clearly a SPECULATIVE share. The risk is a total duster, however I disagree with your view that with ex-CERP assets alone we will be stuck at a £20m market cap for years. CERP had a market cap of £50m last year and the vision of its BoD was to become a £500m market cap company. If it ever reaches only £100m in its own right, the bet on Percy-1 if a total duster is fully hedged at the current SP of 2.5p. However NO ONE SHOULD INVEST IF THEY CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

4. My family and I have several million shares, and I have introduced selected family, friends and neighbours. Even my accountants....and I clearly stated the risks.

I suggest you listen to the Malcy interview yesterday. It was very informative and sums everything very well. https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/10/17/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xxiii/

About to go out with my better half. Have a nice day. And continue to DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Good morning

I will be disappointed if we don’t hit £1b market cap, soon after a positive spud result. This reflects an SP of just under 25p. Minimil’s very good posts yesterday dealt with revenue based predictions. This opinion deals with investor psychology and market sentiment.

I believe there will be substantial institutional and PI risk appetite which may increase the 25p SP during 2021. Why?

1. Background: According to the RNS link from yesterday, $2.5b is the NET NPV10 @ only $40/b for only 700m Boe. This values each barrel’s NET at only $3.50, purely on the ONE giant structure. Are there more?

2. PoO: It is unlikely this will remain stuck at $40. Even with USA shale, analysts’ consensus is PoO >$50/b in 2022 onwards.

3. Bank interest rates: Close to zero. Investors will seek secure future dividend earning shares.

4. Dividends: Any future dividend earning share based on actual assets such as oil reserves and gold reserves can be sold as soon as extracted. The Dot com boom was pie in the sky. Oil is pie on the plate.

5. Farm-Out: BPC will be ripe for offers. If so, some $$$ may be distributed to shareholders as a JV will usually include some back-costs (c$140m) and future cap-ex. Future revenue will be almost 100% net profit. ZERO tax. BPC fixed overheads such as payroll are very very low.

6. Cash is king: If BPC gets its hands on cash (or leverages it) while PoO is low, it may M+A with small regional oil companies in difficulty. 6B unused shares will come in handy.

7. Independence: In 2/3 years, IF IF IF BPC goes it alone in production using sub-contractors, profits = dividends.

8. Takeover in future: Jackpot! This can happen suddenly and out of the blue.

9. Supply and demand: Many investors took the risk prior to spud knowing full well this could have been a duster. Why sell at 25p if the SP may increase to >50p and >£2B market cap within a year or so, based on probable news shown above?

10. The UK economy and cows: Dire straits. Taxes on capital gains, pension savings and ISAs may change. Will CGT be introduced at the marginal rate? Why sell a future cash-cow and pay substantial taxes, when it can be milked?

Summary: I will be disappointed if the post spud price will be less than 25p including 1p for Ex-CERP assets and 0.5p for Uruguay. We will have the capital to do 2D/3D and a URY-1 spud without expensive CLNs.

Clearly all the above will be totally irrelevant if Percy-1 is a duster, however at the current 2.5p SP, with my average (and other LTHs) since 2014 being much lower……………I believe our gamble is HEDGED to a degree by ex-CERP assets.

All above IMHO. DYOR. Great to see new contributors with excellent posts yesterday. Welcome! Have a great Sunday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

xxx

Oultonmike: I’ll probably give my tuppence worth Sunday or Monday early morning.

Some very interesting posts today! A few more snippets from me today below:

1. If FPSOs are used, let’s remember there’s only c215 of them worldwide (as at 2018). Half owned by majors, the rest by contractors. See https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/03/09/1996991/0/en/Floating-Production-Storage-Offloading-FPSO-Market-Insights-2025-Key-Operators-are-Petrobras-China-National-Offshore-Oil-Corp-CNOOC-Total-ExxonMobil-Royal-Dutch-Shell-and-Chevron-C.html#:~:text=The%20key%20operators%20in%20the,Dutch%20Shell%2C%20and%20Chevron%20Corporation.

2. The RNS states the ideal scenario is two production platforms, one at each end of the structure. Some of the largest can hoover immense volumes per day. Refer to my wiki link from this morning. Some are or were owned by ….the Stena Group!

3. There’s another train of thought: a pipe to Cuba. Especially if there’s a lot of Bahamian environmentalists putting pressure on Gov. Although American politics only come into play if the intent is to export to USA, Biden appears more amiable to Cuba than Trump.

All said and done, based on recent RNSs, any type of mega-Capex will likely be done as a farm-out and not by us, which is why the NPV10 on ‘only’ 700m Boe @$40/b is an estimated NET figure of ‘over’ $2.5b. In a very recent article it stated @60/b PoO the net figure was $5b, however I can’t find it. If anyone can find it, please post the link.

All of this intel is useful in what the markets will estimate the post spud price on success, the worth of the company in a buy-out, or as production begins.

About to go out again. Have a great day.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps to my Ps this morning to IreneK and Fatal: I was only joking about the dove cat-snack in my previous post. I don’t use a hammer either. In fact I have decided to adopt the doves as pets. The lazy spoilt cat can find its own food.