Member Info for Starchild

Rossannan. You appear to have been traumatised over the years with CERP and take any positive projections by the BoD relating to ex-CERP assets as pie in the sky. This is your right. As a reminder, the BPC BoD is a whole new team who did due dili prior to merger. If Leo Koot was clever enough to have sold to the BPC BoD the CERP potential based on hyperbole rather than fact, he probably has almost supernatural skills. And a huge future asset to the BPC team as he could even persuade Greta Thunberg to do a JV farm-in using Exxon cash for $250m next week.

Aspir: Have we been introduced as you appear to be talking to me as a friend in need of advice? I’ve been investing in stocks and shares for 5 decades, probably when you were still taking a sh+te using a potty. You allege I am naïve, implying my posts are misleading for newbies, and furthermore provide no evidence or links to back you opinions which you state as facts.

If I repeatedly posted hype ramping cr+p such as …’ me finks in a week the SP will soar soar soar to 25p, £1 pre-spud, and £5 on Christmas day 2020 when BPC finds a trillion barrels of oil. Oh what a whopper…….’…… I think your post would be valid. However at this time, without causing offence, your post is somewhat ridiculous and therefore an irrelevance. At 11:00 this morning, you stated ………….. ‘companies with 3000bbopd, and cheap fast expension plan to 6000bbopd in a year and transformational assets are valued at less then 20m pound’…………… Please prove evidence and links proving this. And while you attempt to do so, which I doubt you can, remember BPC is a once in a generation opportunity because:

1. The mega Percy-1 opportunity. (and if successful what other middle eastern size oil-fields lie nearby)

2. The low overheads if it is a duster. BPC is NOT Tullow oil where it has thousands of staff on the payroll. It has around 40, NO debt, NO loss making rigs. Etc, etc

3. Ex-CERP asset potential which even if 50% below BoD projections by end of 2021……….. will IMHO fully hedge the bet in the event Percy-1 is a duster at current SP.

In4cedros/Petro$ and others: Thanks! .

I wish everyone well….even Rossannan and Aspir.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Minimil: I do not disagree with you.

It is likely a lot of ex-CERP asset news will hit from now until January, mostly December such a competent person's report and S2 update. In the meantime at just over 400 boe per day, the company is probably earning c$3m per year pro-rata and likely breaking even, or almost even (excluding capex off-course). [$20 net profit per boe x >400 x 360 days]

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Background
There were some very good posts yesterday discussing the history of CERP and Leo’s vision of making it a £500m market-cap company. Thanks guys. My post this morning provides opinions how it can become £200m by late 2021 which is actually less than the +/-£220-250m analysts’ forecasts and recent company vision below.

21.6p/sh (c£220m mCap) From March 2020: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/916212/vsa-capital-market-movers---columbus-energy-resources-916212.html

25p/sh (c£250m mCap) from July 2018 https://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/6041186/Broker-Forecast-VSA-Capital-issues-a-broker-note-on-Columbus-Energy-Resources-Plc-Ord-0-point-05p.html

Refer to slide 21 (left) https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf . It states an…’end 2021 [Production] GOAL 2,500 bopd (net).’ And $15m NET revenue based on $40/b PoO and $20/b extraction costs. At $50/b PoO, I have argued in my deep dive on 21/10 4:31am this NET retained cash figure could be £12.3 annually after deducting $3m in fixed operating expenses such as payroll. Oil industry P/E ratio is x17 valuing the company (assuming Percy-1 is a duster) and $50 PoO at £200m, or 5p / share.

But will it?
New and existing investors ought to think this through as it could FULLY hedge Percy-1 being a duster and represent 4p-5p per share by end of 2021. Even if you are a planning to sell-up prior to spud, the points below may make a difference to the SP in the next few weeks, because as of today, I don’t think the markets have thought this through. Some ex-CERPers remain highly sinical. However, I take the following view made up of 5 key points:

1. The BPC BoD would have done major due dili prior to merger. They would NOT have relied on CERP BoD predictions or hype.

2. The quality of the BPC BoD and management team are not the type to get hoodwinked. Refer to their experience and successful track record. https://www.bpcplc.com/about/who-we-are/board/ and https://www.bpcplc.com/about/senior-management/ They cannot be accused of being in-experienced bozos.

3. BPC will have the cash to make this happen. CERP did not. I have already given opinions in prior posts how.

4. I see no reason to doubt the BPC BoD projections. Even if they are out by a factor of 50%, the NET cash after ALL expenses is still potentially £6m annually.

5. And WHY has a 3rd party company offered to pay for ALL Saffron 2 exploration, development and production? Are they delusional?

Bottom line: IMHO, if Percy-1 is a total duster, the SP will temporarily collapse to sub 1p, however by end of 2021 we will likely be fully hedged at the current share-price and more. If though Percy-1 is a success, ex-CERP asset revenue will add a free gourmet dessert to the epicurean feast we will all share. Always DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Irene: Please apologise so we can move on. I allege your last posts is FAKE news on your part! As a reminder...............

See https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/irenekrapp/
See https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Respectfully,
Starchild

Irene: I am still awaiting for an apology. Please withdraw the allegations….’ lol, you made a crackpot prediction of profits in 2021’ …and…. ‘You really are a crackpot. I feel sorry for all the newbies who seem to be taken in by you.’

You are free to opine that the SP will hit minus 1p if Percy-1 is a duster, but not to state the above, as I provided evidence in good faith why ex-CERP assets alone can hit BPC's first £200m market cap by end 2021. ALL based on recent BPC presentations.

I have no issue with our little 'skirmishes' over the months mostly done with a bit of banter, however I have an issue to the above. Are you man enough to apologise?

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

How much is that ‘doggy’ in the window?
The one with the wiggly tail.
CERP will earn us lots of money
And a FREE drill in the Bahamas as well.

Bottom line: on the subject of Findme's poem, my little one above sums it up. When new investors, the markets and the investment press actually figure out that CERP assets alone could hit a market cap of £200m by end of 2021 the SP will increase leading to Spud quicker than it is now.

IMHO at sub 3-4p SP today, we are basically investing FREE money on the mega-Bahamas spud.

Refer to my justifications and analysis posts over the last few days. CERP is NOT a dog. But always DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Petro$/Tiburn: great posts.

Interesting recent article https://portfolio-adviser.com/peter-hargreaves-picks-funds-veteran-for-hl-board-under-new-shareholder-arrangement/

'Our' Adrian Collins (BPC non-exec director) https://www.bpcplc.com/about/who-we-are/board/ and fund veteran.....
chosen last week by billionaire Peter Hargreaves to serve on the for HL board under new shareholder arrangement. Many contributors to this BB, use the HL platform to buy/sell shares.

https://portfolio-adviser.com/peter-hargreaves-picks-funds-veteran-for-hl-board-under-new-shareholder-arrangement/

It is one example of the pedigree of members of the BPC BoD and why I have confidence in it.

Have a great day

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

It's not bad news about Langans (other than its poor staff) . It's a biz opportunity. We can all chip in after Percy-1 success using our petty cash........and buy them out. As I thought of the idea, I propose the current semi-Parisian type decor with a hint of the Bahamas and a Trinidad/Tobago/Suriname angle....would be great.

Agree?

Starchild

Rossannan: Again I can see your point of view and fully respect it. 2nd time in a day which has been rare because of our little skirmishes on and off over the last few weeks.

I fully agree with you it is always good to be wary. However the great thing about ex-CERP assets is BPC will have the capital to make things happen. CERP did not. Even if the management projections are out by 50% for end 2021 and we only generate £6m free cash instead of £12.3m. IMHO the SP, even with a total Percy-1 duster could be more than the 2.5p based on my SP modeling algorithm.

As a BPCer it is only in the last 3 weeks or so I understood the ex-CERP asset potential in full as it was very confusing what the assets were and how much money they could generate. It is also good that these assets are over a spread portfolio any of which can strike big.

I hope in the next few weeks professional analysts home in on this to add credence to my researched opinion that the SP at current levels is FULLY hedged if Percy-1 is a duster. The markets haven't quite worked this out. A bit like owning shares in a retail biz, forgetting it actually owns £100m in property.

Best,

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

PI: I think that was a good summary.

If you refer to my cashflow post on 6/10 09:21 I opined how we could get $5m towards CERP, however things have moved on.

1. A competent persons report / audit is expected by year end.

2. Reserve based lending is possible on 2P assets, based on CPR.

3. Infrastructure lending is also possible for T+T if oil proven. See it as a mini version of leveraging $$$ for Percy-1 if shown to be a gusher, if we go it alone without a big major JV. The partner could be a FPSO vessel. In T+T's case I believe the figure was $7m for infrastructure. This is nothing if it generates more than this in 6 months net profit. If we have x active wells and we need to spend capex to double the wells in the same area............I believe funding based on a traditional loan can be done. A bit like owning a gold-mine and needing a few million to double the tunnels for productivity purposes.

IMHO

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Ps...I'm very embarrassed. I posted several times today on the fly. I sent an email to a VIP customer a few minutes ago, and signed it off 'Starchild'. He must think I've lost the plot.

Rossannan: I hear what you say although do not necessarily agree with you. However have no axe to grind with you.

A BoD in a public company would never state wild financial predictions without merit or feasibility. Its Nomad(s) would not let them. Furthermore, a whole different management team now holds the reins with only Leo remaining from CERP.

The points I have made in the last 2 days, in good faith, are based on BPC presentations which i analysed and cross referenced with other research. Not figures I have cooked up or hyped to mislead people, as alleged by our resident share-shorting princess. What reason would I have to do this? to try and talk-up the SP to 3p instead of 2.4p? I don't care if it's 2,3, or 4p as I'm in for the big Percy-1 spud.

good luck,

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

We are awaiting on Irene to withdraw the allegations….’ lol, you made a crackpot prediction of profits in 2021’ …and…. ‘You really are a crackpot. I feel sorry for all the newbies who seem to be taken in by you.’

In the meantime, it is important to confirm a key point: the $15m is NOT revenue (or as Brits say, ‘turnover’), it is NET profit prior to costs running the business such as payroll or any capital expenditure. Here’s another way to prove this point.

Refer to slide 21 top left https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf . It states an…’end 2021 [Production] GOAL 2,500 bopd (net)’

1. 2500 x 360 days = 900,000 boe per year starting at the end of 2021.
2. 900,000 x $40 (PoO WTI) = $36,000,000 annual revenue.
3. Cost of extraction is approx. $20/b and the company has stated it will try to improve this.
4. This leaves a net of $18,000,000 minus gov royalties leaving the original $15,000,000 which I referred to in my earlier post this morning and undertook a deep dive yesterday morning.

I am aware and totally accept there are many on this BB who plan to cash out pre-spud. This is there prerogative even though I will not. Their only concern and most of the chatter on this BB appears to be if the SP twitches up and down and don't care what happens in late 2021.

However if seasoned persons who know about shares and financials haven’t figured out the ex-CERP potential by end of 2021 as envisioned by the BoD, is potentially MORE than today’s SP (based on market cap) if Percy-1 is a duster….what hope do ordinary PIs?

Irene to allege I am stupid and/or wilfully attempting to mislead newbies is out of order. I await her apology.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I hope Irene is man enough to apologise to me after the insults (again).

Here is an extract of what I wrote yesterday morning at 04:31am and the evidence. Specifically note 1.c!!!!!!!!!!!....1.c refers to the expenses such as payroll, office, to run the business. I deducted $3m from the $15m. Refer to the evidence. …………………………

‘Please refer to yesterday’s very informative presentation by Eytan here: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf

Refer to slide 21 and footnote 3 which states……………2021 goal >$15m NET of applicable royalties / fiscal takes.
Cross reference this with the August presentation slides 27 and 29 which show the same $15m goal with a price model of PoO at only $40/b https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf

1. Now let’s make the following assumptions:
(a) CERP is still a stand-alone public company but has 4 billion shares
(b) It made $15m NET profit per year based on $40/b PoO
(c) It’s expenses are $3m (consistent with 2018 accounts https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Columbus-Energy-Resources-plc-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-2018.pdf )
(d) No debt
(e) To keep it simple: no capital expenditure

Net profit = $12m /£9.3m (exchange rate £1 = £1.30)’………….

[Now look at the whole post which states the SP modelling with EVIDENCE]

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Dear Cosmonova

We note you sell star names and I’m thinking of buying four. https://cosmonova.org/order/

Five questions:

1. Is it possible to select a star which isn’t very bright in the sky and somewhat dim? As for the name, I am leaning towards… ‘We-love-Bahamas-Petroleum-but-IreneKrapp- is-that-naughty-and-extremely-annoying-BPC-share-shorting-derivatives-trader.’

2. Does it cost more if it’s an old collapsed star that has become a black hole?

3. Or does it cost less if it’s a tiny asteroid that wonders around aimlessly serving no purpose?

4. May I name our Star, the Sun, in honour of my lovely wife? I would like to use the pet name I call her by, ‘Dumpling Bunny-kins’.

5. If I named a star ‘Princess Fluffy’ and gave it as a gift to my grandchildren in honour of their new kitten, …………..AND IF a planet around this star was inhabited by aggressive hi-tech aliens who are watching us ….…. wouldn’t it cause offence and likely get them miffed?

We thank you in advance,

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

ps: Irene PROVE your last post using evidence why my ex-CERP asset value from yesterday at 04:30 is wrong.

This post is a simple summary of BPC’s pros and cons and aimed at PI newbies or BB lurkers. It explains why I invested and will continue to invest in the company.

BPC Positives

1. The BoD has a proven track record of success.

2. Approx. $140m would have been spent by 1Q 2021 on 2D, 3D, analysis, research, and a spud using a $1 billion state-of-the-art Stena drill ship.

3. Share price leading to spud and soon after is very likely to increase. Spud date is +/- 15/12/20.

4. If commercial quantities of oil are found (minimum 150m bboe), SP will substantially increase.

5. If a massive oil field is found 770m - 1.4 billion boe, SP will soar. The consensus is to over 20p. An RNS recently stated if 700m boe found, assuming $40/b PoO, NPV10 would be over $2.5b.

6. BPC could become a dividend cash-cow.

7. There is approximately 1 in 3 chance of finding commercial quantities of oil. According to an article from 2018, this is 4 times better than the industry average. http://www.tribune242.com/news/2018/jan/11/oil-explorers-success-prospects-four-times-better/

8. PoO is expected to increase to over $50/b in future.

9. In August 2020 BPC merged with CERP for approx. £20m. According to management projections and the presentation below, ex-CERP assets alone have the potential to generate $15m/year NET profit by end of 2021.

10. At the current SP of 2.5p assuming point 9 comes into fruition, even if NET profit is only $10m, IMHO shareholders are fully hedged. Refer to my post yesterday at 04:31 for a deep dive of how it is potentially fully hedged.

BPC Major Risks

1. No oil is found at Percy-1.

2. Not enough oil is found.

3. The wrong type of oil is found, eg, API too heavy akin to bitumen.

4. Ex-CERP asset revenue projections fail to materialise. Ever.

5. A close encounter of the fifth kind by a star child.

6. If any of points 1 – 3 apply, and point 4 permanently applies, it will be a disaster for the company.

Key points: My family and I have several million shares. I became a shareholder in 2014 knowing full well the risks involved. In August 2020 BPC merged with CERP. I firmly believe the current BPC SP at 2.5p is seriously undervalued as it will very likely increase leading to spud, will soar on Percy-1 success, yet be FULLY HEDGED by end of 2021 if Percy-1 result is inconclusive due to ex-CERP assets. I have no reason to doubt the BoD’s financial projections and this will be clarified further following a competent person’s report/audit of probable ex-CERP reserves by year end.

Above IMHO. Always DYOR or seek professional advice. Start with the latest BPC presentation https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

GG: I totally agree that any company whether £10m or £1b market cap should eventually get back to its shareholders. Over the last year BPC has got back to me eventually. Suggest you escalate so it can resolve these interim communication teething problems. What if you were Exxon gagging for a farm-in?

Best

Starchild

GG: I highly respect many of your posts. I'm not answering for BPC as I have no direct or indirect relationship however what you say surprises me. If you get nowhere using the generic email or phone number, perhaps escalate using https://www.bpcplc.com/contacts/grievances/

As Eytan stated yesterday, things are hectic at present. However I too would be miffed if no response was eventually forthcoming.

Good luck

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

CoMan: where have you been buddy? You have been mentioned several times in the last few days. Please remain in a holding pattern permanently to answer our tech questions as I believe almost all commentators on this BB trust you.

Also, from end of November until late January, please have your alarm clock set before 7am, so you can opine on RNSs re BPC tech developments in Trinidad and Bahamas.

Thanks

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Rocket13; 'Star.... why don’t you take IRENEand f..k yourself'

Your offensive post makes no grammatical sense and if salacious, without going into details, clearly creates a physical conundrum.

My posts: https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Your posts: https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/rocket13/

Let readers decide.

Starchild

I absolutely and totally agree everyone should do their own research and not rely on this BB for 'advice'. Be especially wary of anyone that flips between talking the SP up and then down to fit their trading needs. Actual example https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/rocket13/

This is why I usually state 'DYOR' in most of my posts. This morning I posted a justification at 0430 am why ex-CERP assets alone could, if meeting BPC BoD projections, could potentially reach £200m by end of 2021. I provided evidence, links, opinions. It came to a potential 4-5p BPC SP on ex-CERP assets alone. I will gladly change this opinion if anyone provides reliable factual evidence to the contrary. 'Evidence' doesn't include such snide comments as 'BPC Trinidad assets are cr+p', or 'the BoD are talking sh+te'.

Postman24: I am somewhat surprised by the tone of your posts and alleging dishonesty on my part. Have we been introduced? Be assured I have never been Aberdeen man nor anyone else on this BB. If you disagree with my opinions I suggest you state why but why make it personal? How have I caused you problems?

Always DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/