Member Info for Starchild

Oultonmike: ‘How quickly the new shares will be churned?’ I’ll leave it to the professional day traders on this BB to give a technical opinion, however I will add my 2p’s worth from an investor/businessman perspective……

Firstly, institutional investors do have a percentage of shares in high risk/high reward opportunities. Even pension funds. Refer to https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w11619w . Mersey pension fund had 50,000,000 shares. What we don’t know is how many institutions subscribed to the placing last week. If 10 at £950k each, they may or may not sell some of their BPC holdings leading to spud. If 50 at £200k will they bother to get out of bed to make 10-20% or go all in? We don’t know.

Secondly, professional fund managers will be doing a deep dive. To help them, in the extremely unlikely event they actually read my ramblings, the rest of this CHEEKY ‘elevator pitch’ post is for them and newbies....

Dear Fund Managers,

The reason I invested in BPC since 2014, topped up many times and introduced selected friends, family and business associates (even my accountants) over the years is simple. No casino in the world will give an immediate 10-20 times pay-out on a winning roulette-wheel column bet, compounded by the upside that if oil is found at Percy-1, the markets will probably price in the factor that there may be more nearby. Since the CERP merger and Uruguay license, I would add a caveat to the Casino analogy……If the bet is lost, subject to patience for a few years, I can possibly get my bet refunded in full. Especially if I bought the chips for 2p!

Although the official Cos is ostensibly a 1 in 3 bet, IMHO it could be slightly better in practice.

1. Refer to latest corporate presentation slide 11 (photo with red line in the middle). In simple language, Percy-1 will drill through 9 or10 layers. Any or all of these structures could hold massive oil reserves stretching 90km long. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf . What are the chances of NOT finding at least one play with the commercially viable 150 million barrels minimum?

2. Leo (CERP CEO) was physically excited at the potential structures while doing the pre-merger due dili. Watch between 4 minutes - 6 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w

3. The CERP BoD unanimously agreed to the merger despite all of them, except Leo, losing their jobs.

For deep dive analysis refer to https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:BPC/Bahamas-Petroleum-Company-PLC/ and the BPC website.

So if you’re a fund manager and decide to keep your institutional investment in BPC in full, the best that can happen is you get a huge bonus and promotion. The worst is you get FIRED for NOT buying even more BPC shares on the open market.
For further information pho*e me on [redacted as it’s only for institutional investors].

Hugs

Prospect: totally agree about the confidence factor. In fact Simon (BPC CEO) personally bought 7,751,938 (almost half) as per RNS yesterday.

Some speculate Simon plans to retire soon. (Interesting post by Jim TK). If this is the case, Simon's investment shows even more confidence in the future. If he does retire, whether Eytan or Leo takes over will be interesting. In my opinion both have the street cred and experience. I'm happy to go with the flow.

Starchild

Armatrading/brynjon: very helpful posts on possible CLN, IF IF IF needed. Thanks for harvesting them. The BoD are trying to do their best for all of us for funding and we are getting frequent RNSs. They have stated in yesterday morning’s funding strategy update RNS various options at play. See https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdz1k8w They would not state something untrue or misleading as to funding options.

Spaceconcept: Thanks and welcome to our BB! I got most of the figures from Google Finance, Yahoo history, audited accounts and old RNSs which stated shares on issue. For old intel, I did this totally out of boredom for something to do a few months ago during lockdown!

JBT007: I stand fully corrected. BPC floated in September 2008 a year and a half earlier in a reverse ‘takeover’ of Falkland’s Gold. Refer to admission document here https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2008/09/01180256/2008-09-02-bpc_-_admission_document_2008.pdf . You are also correct the shares were 780 million at that time. However if you refer to Google Finance>BPC> Max chart….the SP was insignificant until the event in my narrative this morning when it peaked in 2011. The point being made, our SP could soar up to spud based on market cap and NOT SP based on where we are now compared to historic highs. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

Zag: why are most people not too concerned? Because it’s temporary. SP should soar heading to Spud according to analysts. When, I don’t know other than before 15/12/20.

Irene: your last posts are ridiculous. ‘they just agreed a price’…. Similar to two schoolboys haggling on the price of a used bicycle?

Starchild

Irene, our naughty BPC share-shorting pilchard. To answer your question about independent valuations, let me attempt to explain it in baby language. Let’s pretend you own a kebab van with the best kebabs and falafels in town, open 6 evenings a week in a prime area of Grimsby near lots of pubs. A kebab van owner from the other side of town hears of your success so makes an offer to buy your van and business for £100,000. Your mindful to sell and ask for £1m yet nervous knowing one of your regular customers complained of food poisoning from a dodgy chicken donner kebab that had gone off. (As a side point, to use a wise Edna Everage saying, ‘never buy a donner kebab unless you know who the donor was’). So what do you do? You negotiate providing evidence of value/potential with professional help and if possible showing audited accounts by Price Waterhouse going back 7 years of your kebab ‘empire’.

Now in the CERP/BPC merger, I’m quite sure Leo (CERP CEO) did not get a call out of the blue from Simon (BPC CEO), stating … ‘we’d love to merge with you. How about 1 CERP = 80.3% of 1 BPC share, fire everyone and give us your cash.’ Followed by ‘Thanks Simon, I agree, just send me the paperwork and I’ll sign in the morning after taking my Bulldog (yuk) for a walk’. Advisors acting for both companies negotiated and did due dili, and together they came up with independent opinions on the deal structure and valuations influenced by what the markets thought over a period of time. Please refer to the merger prospectus RNS for further details as to how the deal was assessed.

I trust this answers your question why I used the word ‘independently’ rather than qualify it with the above caveats. Had I done so, readers of the post would have thought I was somewhat odd. And even more peculiar than you appear to be based on your constant de-ramping posting history.

Have a nice day.

Starchild (AKA Starfish)
Ps…thanks for confirming you agree 2p is a low valuation of our SP

JGBB...I can assure you I am not petro$. We write in different styles. It just happens I live a few hours ahead of UK, and possibly Petro$ does, or is an early riser. So we tend to post early, but as far as I am aware not in tandem throughout the day.

have a nice day

Petr...oops.....I meant Starchild
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Rickierich: There are many new members on this BB, some who became shareholders for the first time yesterday. My post this morning was a summary of some stuff posted before and some new material.

I do not run the BPC helpdesk, nor have the time to spend doing research and opinions every time I'm asked although I try and help. Perhaps you could kindly do so on the CLN front and let us know. It will be helpful.

BTW CERP related RNS just out

Starchild

Good Morning

I thank you for your extremely gracious posts yesterday, which I've only just read properly. Onwards and upwards for both BPC and PRD with their huge potential!

GLA
Starchild
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Interesting facts about BPC and where it is today (02/10/20)

1. In April 2010 when BPC floated on the UK AIM there were 860,000,000 shares.

2. On 4 Feb 2011 PoO was at c$100 barrel when BPC peaked at 25.697p intraday. This gave BPC a market cap of £220m/(@1.60=) $350m in Feb 2011. This is equivalent to 5.5p based on the 4b total shares which will be on issue from Monday.

3. On 9 Aug 2018, an intraday high of 7.4446p was reached. It was when a major had paid $1m for exclusivity to our data room. Using round figures of 2.1 billion BPC shares at that time, it made the market cap in August 2018, £160m/$210m. PoO was $70.

4. The only assets BPC had were theoretical huge oil prospects, the money spent undertaking detailed 2d/3d research, many studies and purchasing decades worth of historical data/samples.

5. In August 2020, BPC merged with CERP. It now has an asset, a business independently valued at c£20m which from Monday represents the first 0.5p of the BPC share price. Subject to expected news flow, this 0.5p may change. In fact last year CERP had a market cap of £50m in its own right, theoretically worth the first 1.25p of BPC’s current share price.

6. Today we have c$25m in the bank mostly ear marked for the Percy-1 spud. A contract with Stena has been signed. The Spud will happen on 15/12/20, in 11 weeks’ time.

7. The future: AIM companies managed outside UK, HQ'd on Isle of Mann, pay no corporation tax. BPC royalties to the Bahamas if we find oil is between 12.5% for 75,000 barrels per day to a peak of 25% for 350,000 barrels per day or more. This gives us shareholders the edge when it comes to future dividends. Exxon, Shell et al pay substantial taxes before declaring dividends. BPC will not.

Based on all the above it does not surprise me institutional investors over-subscribed the placement offer. Perhaps more will join the party and buy on the open market. Why? The potential billion(s) dollars if we find oil, HEDGED by CERP assets if we do not. What other share on the UK stock market has the same RISK vs ROI profile? Please let me know!

Bottom line: In February analysts predicted the SP will surge leading to Spud. I do not doubt them. Especially with the positive news-flow that is expected, perhaps even a farm-in with a major.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA

Starchild
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Harel on ignore list? Not in my opinion. We all have different viewpoints and disagreements , mostly respectful.
My gripe is against shorters who use this bb for personal gain and anyone that posts FAKE news.

BTW Chesh's posts are coded based on the dots leading to the !. I've made a fortune after breaking his code. However I cannot disclose this without breaking an NDA other than to say be very careful if there are 7 dashes followed by a '!' and smiley face

Starchild

Shatter: brill you joined the party. Hold onto your hat. Let us know if you want some background info, although you have and continue to DYOR

Starchild

Zaggy: join the club!!!! I've own shares for many decades. Some spectacular, others nasty dogs. Worse than my e-wife's (can't remember which wife) toe nail eating bulldog Captain Gumdrop.

AIM shares have a relatively small liquidity market and as you have seen fluctuate with MMs making profit along the way.
Small market cap energy stocks are a dream come true to traders with CFDs/derivatives. Many who short the shares.

However all said and done, with a bit of patience you can make lots of $$$, subject to some patience and medical supervision for blood pressure.

Scisiborg: Chesh is a mate and a good bloke although undecipherable at times. However LTHs do have a Chesh-speak dictionary which is only available by invitation only. It is currently being sold on the black market for a few grand a pop

Zag: what do you expect me or others to say? everything is an 'IF' and this is considered a speculative share, otherwise we would have a billion pound market cap today.

I've tried to be helpful and so have others. We are all in this together including you and me.... except for the permanent shorters who write regular derogatory comments against the company and the BoD for selfish gain.

Tiburn: great post
Scsiborg: please elaborate yours
Harry: totally agree
Chesh: Funny....but i can't comment in case it causes yet another diplomatic indecent. We were on DEFCON 2 yesterday

Taking a pragmatic approach, the SP was stuck at 2p for weeks during the Trafalgar dumping. It is only since 14th September that it started to soar. Because it did soar, the BPC BoD timed the 470m share placing successfully. Conversely had it been stuck at 2p and then today, as is the case at this moment, the SP was at 2.2p, everyone would be in an upbeat mood.

I believe many LTHs have a very low average, so not too bothered. I accept this doesn’t apply to some LTHs. New holders from today should do very well. Those that bought at near the 2p level during the dumping should not be too bothered either. Those that did not do so well are traders who were holding the share until their next sell.

In hindsight we can all say, ‘yes but, if only we had sold at 3.3p last week.’ This is true, however it will all be IRRELEVANT in a few weeks leading to spud when the SP soars, let alone if we strike oil. This small TEMPORARY inconvenience has resulted in having an extra £9.5m in the bank so I believe it was worth it.

End of pep talk to the team while being in a huddle. We’re 1-0 up and there’s not long to play before getting to the final of the FA Cup.

Starchild
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Ps…I’m the joker on here…..so to avoid anyone else saying it, I’ll do so……….[‘Yes Starchild…you mean the Sweet FA ....cup’]

Some questions: with my answers, as I see them, in [ ]

1. Do you prefer an institutional placing at 2p or a CLN for 2p? [I prefer an institutional placing as there is potentially less share dumping with a more long term view of things]

2. Why didn’t the BoD ask for 2.2 or 2.5p minimum for the placing? [in case it failed which would have been embarrassing]

3. Why didn’t the BoD go for the Bizzell CLN @ 2.5p? [In case we need it as a backstop if all other options are unavailable or if the BoD can’t get a better deal somewhere else]

4. If Trafalgar offered a CLN for 3p, would that be good? [it makes no difference to me as I am holding until drill, however many posters on this BB would likely be annoyed with the mega dumping that would likely ensue]

5. If instead of today’s institutional placing of c500m shares @2p and c600m Bizzell CLN shares @2.5p, (assuming no Stena JV) would you have preferred an option to do a rights issue for 3p? Assume the SP it at the time was @4p and the additional 1.1b shares would have represented a share dilution of c30% based on 3.4 billion shares yesterday. [I would have thought about it and probably subscribed, however (a) if undersubscribed it would have been dire, (b) a rights issue was done last year, so may LTHs may have had a total fit at the idea]

Feedback welcome

Starchild
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Rickierich: from what I can see, only one trade for 2.9p but that was the opening auction for 104 quid. These auctions are easily manipulated.

Then there were several trades at 2.4p for around 4 minutes because MM INV fell asleep at the wheel and forgot to check overnight news. The human that controls the MM bot probably got fired for buying 4 million shares. You can find this data (although delayed) by going to stock market>BPC>show more trades>download.

I can't comment on whether it should have been 2.2p or 2.5p as I don't know the circumstances. I wish it had!!!

Off to a meeting
starchild

Here's another possibility:

Stena JV RNS BEFORE the institutional investors get their shares at 8am on 8th October. Will keep everyone sweet

trade count in the first hour 656..............volume: 102 million shares

It's been mesmerising watching a level 2 console this morning. The same thing will happen when a positive RNS hits us following spud

napthman: I agree with you. It's not mates rates. In fact at this moment anyone (mate, BoD, City worker or toilet cleaner) can buy at 2.09p