Member Info for Starchild

For goodness sake just because the BPC SP didn’t increase by another gazillion pips today, why all the fuss? Why the negativity?

Here are the facts

1. BPC is about to do a billion dollar drill in Dec/Jan going through 9/10 layers. It’s high risk vs high reward.

2. One of the best drill ships in the world (value $1b) will do the business.

3. We are awaiting imminent news on ex-CERP assets which can hedge the bet. What does’ imminent’ mean? Any time from now or in the foreseeable future.

Questions:

1. Do I care if tomorrow the SP hits 2.3p or 2.7p or even 6p? No! I’m in for the spud even though others, many of whom I respect are not.

2. Do I have an issue with negative comments on this BB? No, unless they are from persons who out of selfish GREED GREED GREED using smoke and mirrors attempt to shepard the BPC SP to manipulate others, or purport to sue fellow BB commentators. This in my opinion is disgraceful. To those I recommend this song ‘I’m a winker’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02QdeWnfn9s (warning : VERY strong language)

3. I have several million shares in the company but do I have a Porsche? Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaase don’t insult me.

End of sermon. GLA. DYOR

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Knivey/Pwave: any buy below the mid price (currently 2.50p) is shown as a sell. sometime the opposite happens when SP is surging. Sells are shown as buys.

Starchild

North Sea: size c575.000Km2. First large commercial discoveries c1970. Over the last 50 years several majors and smaller oil/gas companies have earned a fortune. Royalties/taxes are earned by several countries predominantly UK/Norway. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund established in 1990 is approximately $1 TRILLION and owns 1.4% of the global stock market. A baby born today has the security of c$200,000 being invested by the State for h/er future welfare and pension.

The Bahamas EEZ: size c220,000 Km2. 40% the size of the whole North Sea. Population c400,000. Bristol has a larger population. I’ve been to the Bahamas with my family and witnessed its beautiful Islands and wonderful people who have suffered two back to back disasters; a devastating hurricane and a global pandemic. They do not have a Norwegian type of sovereign wealth fund YET. In fact government debit is c100% of GDP…. C$10 billion. Yesterday it secured $600m in bond financing repayable in 12 years at a whopping 9% annual interest rate. BPC has the exclusive exploration rights to a chunk and the only player in town. Royalties: 25% max. Taxes: zero, zilch. Within 3 months it will have spent c$140m using some of the most advanced technology available, including a billion dollar state-of-the-art drill ship. [Above sources include: Wiki, BPC financial statements, RNSs, local newspapers]

Facts and opinions
1. If we find commercial quantities of oil at Percy-1, the markets at the time may deduce the Bahamas EEZ has the potential to becoming another North Sea. Or put more simply, ‘there’s gold in dem hills’. The SP and market cap will likely reflect this in addition to the Percy-1 NPV.

2. BPC has a 30 year license to extract any oil found. If substantial reserves are proven, it is likely a major will negotiate a farm-out or buy us out. A farm-out will likely produce substantial future dividends possibly more per year than today’s SP and enable BPC to go on a regional M&A shopping spree.

3. PoO is currently low and somewhat irrelevant in the overall picture. One of the advantages of anything being priced low, is the upside when it isn’t. Refer online to PoO since the 1973 oil crisis when PoO tripled and North sea oil came on tap.

4. To hedge a Percy-1 duster……ex-CERP assets have a huge potential to be worth substantially more than the £20m undiscounted net merger valuation, which today is reflected in the BPC SP at approx. 0.5p. Imminent news may effect this.

Key points: I am not aware of any public company with a similar low market cap with the same risk vs ROI profile. Pantheon (PANR) is the closest I can find with a £200m market cap. IMHO I believe BPC is very much undervalued. 2.5p SP? Market cap £100m inc £20m ex-CERP assets? Pleeeeeeeeeease give me a break! But that’s just my opinion. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
xxx

Arma: valid point, however if this date lapses, I believe it strengthens my opinions as posted earlier today. If not, we kinda know where we stand. Either may cause a SP surge

Starchild

Zaggy: Why is Thursday make or break day? If you were the BoD and had several funding options in play (refer to my previous posts), why commit on Thursday? They may or may not. I and other LTHs are aligned to the BoD in the sense we don't care short term SP fluctuations unless it affects a CLN for the final +/-10m. LTHs are after the jackpot under the Percy-1 rocks and don't particularly care the SP until spud.

All said and done, I think the folks hoping to benefit until spud will do VERY well.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zarquon: love the name. Sounds like an alien star traveller brother-in-law about to bestow alien technology to remove CO2 from the world and to ensure from today a 3 piece KFC meal has massive portions vs 2 pieces and a baby sparrow thigh.

Good luck mate

Starchild
xxx

Arma: possibly true, you may have a point.
Sprite: thanks mate.

All: refer to my post earlier today. I think there is a chance we don't need a CLN or any 'exotic' funding to move forward. It could be done with reserve based lending. In fact every day that goes by without news for the final funding leads me to this conclusion. I may be wrong, however the impact of my opinion being right even partially is NO MORE dilution leading to spud at the asset and share level. With one ironic twist. If I am right and there is no funding RNS for a few weeks.........short-term investors banking on SP soaring may have to wait until December. Unless we get great ex-CERP news in the interim, which will in itself add credence to my theory.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Irene: My KFC post was not meant to be funny. If I wanted to be funny I would have posted a joke such as......

What's green and velvety but if it falls from a tree can kill you?......a snooker table

Starchild (AKA Starfish)

Irene: why did you get my KFC chicken post removed?! I thought you never ask for posts to be removed

On 6 October 09:21 I posted a justification of how I believe we only need c$10m for Percy-1 including a few million on ex-CERP development. I then provided a few permutations where this money could come from.

However based on further analysis, there is the possibility we don’t need a CLN pre-spud nor the Stena JV deal. Why? The answer may be under our noses! ……………..

According to the 1/10/20 RNS 5.iii ‘Reserved Based Lending’ section, it states 2P reserves net can be readily monetizable. It further states that access to $20m capital is a realistic goal. See https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdz1k8w

I read this to be a future event, sometime in 2021, when it can be proven we have 10mmboe as stated. What if between today and when money is needed to pay our Percy-1 bills on time 1st qtr 2021 (longer if key suppliers agree to delay part payment by 6 months for a fair uplift), the following events are EXPECTED:

1. Ex-CERP enhancement announcements

2. An official competent person’s report

The above could potentially raise the needed$10m (vs $20m) if only 5mbboe can be shown as 2P reserves! Furthermore if we need a few million more after spud to enhance ex-CERP, we can leverage an RBL for the remaining reserves and/or if Percy-1 is shown to be ‘hot’ do a tiny CLN at the then ‘discounted’ (!) SP of say, 20p instead of the current low benchmark 2.5p.

I mention this today in case some investors are reticent to pay substantially more than 2.5p as of now, with the belief a CLN @2.5p MAY BE on the cards. I believe a CLN may not materialise and even if it did, who cares for the temporary blip in the SP leading to spud.

IMHO as I could have misread the situation. Opinions welcome

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Tonsan: according to https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3171795&headline=BSHPF-Bahamas-Petroleum-initiated-with-a-Buy-at-Investec they initiated a buy rating last week pre spud @ 6p.

I cannot find anywhere about 39-89p on success. If you eventually find the source and post it here, many persons on this BB will queue up with offers to have your love child.

If Investec Bank have stated this, keep an eye on Proactive.uk as it will be probably be stated on its BPC coverage.

Starchild

Offerman: thank you for your valuable opinions. It was a great summary. I really hope things work out for you and your family during this difficult time. Family comes first, everything else such as money and wealth is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. Hang on in there buddy.

Starchild
xxx

Kevin55: welcome to our BB. I'm pleased you joined the party and shared with us a really excellent first post! Reason system didn't let you post the link is because it was your first and 'it' doesn't know you yet. I know BPC intel quite well, however do not recall reading the article before, so thank you.

Starchild

Kevin55: is this the link? http://www.tribune242.com/news/2018/jan/11/oil-explorers-success-prospects-four-times-better/

If so, good find!

Starchild

Kevin55: you got me curious with the link the system will not allow you to post 4 times! Try leaving the main website name out, and spell it underneath with spaces. eg....

Starchild

Oilworker1: Excellent first post!
Willibobs33: wise words.

I think it's going to be an interesting week. One of many leading to spud....and after.

Starchild
xxx

PoO.... Fitch and Bloomberg (consensus) is $50 per barrel in 2021, $53 per barrel in 2022, $55 per barrel in 2023 and $60.4 per barrel in 2024. Read https://www.rigzone.com/news/brent_oil_price_to_grow_by_14-03-sep-2020-163194-article/?rss=true

Furthermore, 'Oil 'may rebound above US$100 by 2022 due to lack of investment - Proactive's Dr Zac Phillips.' Watch (11 mins) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfOE2_9Z4aI

If BPC strikes a gusher and starts producing in +/ three years, 'off the back of a boat', I'd take the $60/b at this represents +- $30/b gross profit per barrel.

Starchild
xxx

Good morning

I often wonder why extremely wealthy highly intelligent people travel on private jets to play roulette at casinos. Over a weekend in Vegas or Macau they can win or lose millions playing roulette. Yet with similar odds as a column bet, they can win 10-1 (or more) on BPC compared to 2-1 roulette, and to a degree hedge their bet with BPC’s ex-CERP assets. Anyway, that was just a thought for a Sunday morning with an obvious warning: if a loss will cause extreme financial pain, they/we/I shouldn’t bet on either.

Changing the subject, if you are new to BPC and a little bored today have a look back at my recent posts here https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/ . This is not because I believe I am somehow a font of wisdom, but to point you to many many verifiable researched links, observations, background info and other useful commentary from other posters on this BB. Some of my posts may also give you some entertainment. Of-course always DYOR and better still seek advice from independent professionals.

Have a great Sunday.

Starchild
xxx

ps… xxxyyyzzz: totally agree with you. On the ex-CERP side, your post fits in nicely with my casino bet ‘hedging’ analogy above. I believe lots of gourmet RNSs are currently in the oven and ‘soon’ to be served on silver platters.

2020: yes I recommend 2nd level console. You can normally tell MM's big tree shakes and little subtle ones (more of a bush shake), when they pretend the bid is heading lower to spook PIs into selling shares thinking price is heading lower....because the MM needs 'em!)

The biggest plus compared to retail investors who don't have the tools, is to know the number of shares being traded in real-time, you can almost time when the bid/ask is going to change and the real bid/ask vs publicly shown.

Starchild

Hallowed: I believe 20-25p was referring to initial post spud success. Which is why i did not comment on that part of Ptrotter's post. I homed in on his 7p pre-spud.

Starchild