Member Info for Starchild

Bigmj: very sporting gesture. I'd be having kittens...although I too would have bought if i had the chance

they just bought 5m shares by accident at 2.4p!!!! and have now woken up

i think MM INV did not read the RNS today. 2.4p/2.2p

Patoir: totally agree. standard disclaimer on every funding RNS

i found this para interesting....key point CERP is a $20m potential funding source subject to the CPR...

....'Reserve-based lending facilities: The Company has indicated publicly that it is seeking to undertake a portfolio wide Competent Persons' Review (CPR), with a goal of 1 mmbbl of certified 2P reserves (net) by the end of 2020, and 10 mmbbl of certified 2P reserves (net) by the end of 2021. Certified 2P reserves are a readily monetisable asset, and the Company has commenced discussion with several providers of financing facilities that advance funding against the assessed value of 2P reserves ("reserve-based lending facilities", or "RBLs". Based on the level of targeted 2P reserves and typical RBL lending arrangements (including those currently under evaluation), access to in the order of $20m of capital is considered by the Company to be a realistic goal....'

RNS today:
Stena JV still a possibility
Farm-out still a possibility (still talking with majors)
£9.5m 475,000,000 new shares at 2p

Bespoke: you are absolutely right.....RNS just out

Zag: I invested in BPC (and topped up many times) for the big Percy-1 drill. I fully accept and respect that you and many others plan to profit from the SP surge as we go to spud, and then sell some or all of their holdings. unless my circumstances unexpectedly change, I do not plan to do so. To me it's one step forward.

Over the next day or so, institutional investors will have the opportunity to bid, so we don't know the result of the placing and SP until then. Their analysts will see the opportunity taking into account that the first 0.6p (£20m market cap) of the discounted SP represents CERP's value which was independently assessed prior to merger. IMHO, I will be surprised if the placing is NOT oversubscribed at a fair price. it's only £6 million quid with a bi-product.....the marketing exercise of inviting bidders may stir interest in Institutional investors that failed in their bids to join the party. Whales.

Starchild
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Things are moving so fast it’s hard to keep up. It's kinda funny considering some people were complaining of lack of news a few weeks ago. My views on the placing RNS some of which has been stated by others yesterday:

1. An institutional placing is much better than a CLN. A CLN holder is almost guaranteed to fully dispose of their shares ASAP. Although Bizzell showed restraint, Trafalgar dumped.

2. Institutional investors may de-risk some of their discounted shares leading to spud, however more prone to look at the overall long-term picture.

3. The extra +/- 270 million shares represents a minor dilution of +/- 8%

4. We still have NO debt.

5. The management team have the confidence to put $400,000 of their own money in the placing. This is always a positive sign.

6. And why only £6m and not £10m or £12m? I believe it is because the BoD have a few cards up their sleeve to replace the Bizzell CLN. This could be a Stena JV or leveraging CERP assets.

7. I’ll keep watching ‘this space’.

8. The percy-1 drill (and maybe others) WILL happen.

BTW, to those who have PRD and BPC shares, I did apologise this morning on the PRD BB for my posts yesterday. I will not be taking a position on PRD at this time.

IMHO. DYOR

Starchild
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Good morning,

I apologise to everyone on the PRD BB for my posts yesterday with the exception of MMM. Especially to my fellow BPC shareholders who have shares in both companies. I will NOT be trading PRD for now and if and when I do it will be based on long-term investment merits and not emotion. Please see this post as a symbolic act of self-flagellation.

I wish you and PRD well.

Starchild
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I have substantial funds and leverage. Get MrMarketMaker off MY BPC forum or watch what happens next.

Is he a representative of the PRD BoD?

Starchild
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MMM: to use a biblical expression, why don't you leave this BPC BB, get back to your PRD one....and go forth and multiply.

hugs
Starchild

Tiburn: Your 8:48 post this morning was excellent. You opined, giving proof quoting precedent, on the potential $$$ gazillions in revenue based on the RNS today on how we can sell oil off the back of a boat.

Connected to the above….The national debt of the Bahamas Gov is +/- $10B (source http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/may/26/bahamas-facing-eye-popping-100-debt/ ). I’ve enjoyed holidays there with my family. Wonderful friendly people who had to endure a recent hurricane and Covid-19. If oil is discovered in BPC acreage it could pay off the entire national debt. Even if it can’t overnight after spud, the day after P90/1P reserves are proven, this royalty asset can be leveraged by the Government Finance ministry.

JTK: interesting observation re the Stena ship photo. You may have a point there.

Short sellers: refer to my post this morning. Don’t get burned especially as RNSs are hitting the market in a production line. What if a JV is announced with Stena or a major? Respectfully, come and soar with the eagles rather than be bottom feeders.

MMM: I sense pain in your posts due to the PRD share price. If I was on the BPC BoD, I would on principle refuse to negotiate with the PRD BoD based on its allegedly incendiary RNS during the BPC/CERP merger. I respectfully believe you are a bad loser. Just because PRD SP is down, why take it out on our BPC BB? What are you going to do, post another 20 posts of spite like you did a few weeks ago, which were removed?

Starchild
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Good morning.

Please refer to my post yesterday at 15:17 that gives reasoned opinion why the SP should meander its way to 4.2p+ while awaiting news. I’ll return to this but first a few comments on yesterday’s posts:

MM ‘manipulation’: market makers provide liquidity, make a percentage on the spread, want volume and don’t care which way a SP goes as long as they make profit. However 2 of the 8 MMs (SCAP and INV) are BPC’s joint brokers which gives the opportunity for ‘share-price shepherding.’ There is a high probability this happened during the Trafalgar dumping to avoid the SP ending below 2p at EOD. SCAP were top of the MM list for days on end buying up BPC shares, possibly on behalf of a 3rd party.

Day Traders: There are two types, amateur and professional. The latter use CFDs, derivatives and some have direct market access to avoid the MM spread. During low trading volumes assuming a trader has a few million shares or intends to do so, they can bet on the outcome in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even to bet against themselves leveraging a CFD vs shares owned and profiting from the difference. However there are 5 risks:
1. They cannot predict volume or if new PIs or whales decide to buy on the same day.

2. They cannot predict if MMs will intervene (I prefer the word ‘shepherd’)….see above.

3. They do not know if other traders have the opposite plan.

4. They could lose a LOT of money in a few days.

5. The 5th additional risk is for the amateur day traders who buy/sell using dips and waves. They have to take into account 10-20% MM’s sell/buy spread before making a penny in profit.

Shorting BPC: IMHO to do so now is extremely unwise and risky for the following reasons:
1. Everything I have stated above.

2. There are no CLNs creating SP downward pressure.

3. There is an expectation of positive new-flow. Even a bombardment of RNSs.

4. All the evidence points to whales being in the water. It is unlikely these whales are wealthy day traders buying via MMs at premium prices in one go and sacrificing a large percentage of the usual 10-20% planned profit margin out of laziness.

5. KEY POINT: Refer to my post yesterday at 15:17 that gives reasoned opinion why the SP should meander its way to 4.2p+ while awaiting news.

Bottom line: It is not for me to give unsolicited advice to professional or amateur day traders or anyone, however if I have read the situation correctly, IMHO to short BPC now could result in substantial losses. But I may be wrong. CONVICTION STRONG BUY. DYOR.

Starchild
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We can look at recent precedent to predict a company’s share-price.

1. The high of 5.6p on 26/2/20 and market cap of approx. £123m, was at a time when PoO was c$50/b and…..
(a) The drill ship contract was about to be signed with the intent of doing the Percy-1 spud ‘in a few weeks.’
(b) We had two massive CLNs about to be tapped when required, with no other sources of funds other than a potential farm-in.
(c) There were approx. 2.2 Billion shares on issue
(d) Analyst/brokers predicted 8p SP leading to spud.

2. Today we have approx. 3.4 billion shares on issue mainly due to the CERP merger. Yet….
(a) We have a drill ship contract signed.
(b) We have a firm spud date soon after 5/12/20 which is only 12 weeks away.
(c) We have other sources of potential funding including Stena and a major farm-in. And have more time to do so compared to February.
(d) We have potential access to corporate finance as we are now a £100m+ market cap company. And have more time to do so.
(e) We can potentially leverage CERP assets to borrow against (with no dilution at the asset or share level). And more time to do so.

Analysis
Based on all the above points 2 (a) – (e), I would argue we are in a much BETTER position today compared to points 1 (a) – (d) when the SP peaked on 26/2 at 5.6p. As a side point I believe PoO is irrelevant for this exercise unless it suddenly hits $75/b+ which is impossible in a few weeks. Theoretically If it did, all the above could be on the cards at better rates. But let’s get back to real world and do some maths…..

For us to get to the 5.6p interim peak (I’m not talking about the SP surge after that), in the absence of CERP news whether positive or not we should take into account £20m of BPC’s market cap, which means 0.6p of the current share price is CERP and nothing to do with the Percy-1 Spud. This means £123m (as on 26/2) divided by 3.4 billion shares today = 3.6p PLUS 0.6p CERP = 4.2p.

IMHO, I would argue we are in a much better position today than on 26/2 and even WITHOUT news, the SP should be much higher than 4.2p today before soaring further on news. I don’t think the markets have figured this out. YET.

Starchild
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Dear Father Christmas, I append a memo note of our emergency Zoom call. Thank you for taking the call so quickly based on Irene's daft post of a few minutes ago.........

1. I am delighted you have recently purchased loads of BPC shares and read this BB daily.

2. My XMAS stocking wishes, for your records: world peace, a really hot BPC interim RNS before Christmas day. (And for me to possibly become a ‘pop’ star …..and have a facelift/nose job/lipo so I don’t look like the back of a bus)

3. Without appearing pushy, as politely requested with the justification and evidence provided….. if at all possible, could you please change your logistics schedule to deliver IreneK’s XMAS present LAST. This means your sack will be empty and as a favour ask you to kindly bubble wrap, dispose of and transfer the extremely annoying IreneK to Lapland for at least ten years.

4. In the modern world we live in, consider using DHL for logistics to deliver Christmas presents worldwide. It will save you the hassle and danger creeping into people’s houses in the middle of the night with the added risk of wrongfully being accused of being a fat bearded perv. Especially in gun owning USA.

[We wish to thank our generous sponsors DHL for this post. DHL’s excellent German parent company Deutsche Post (ETR: DPW) will see its share price soar by 32% by year end. Why? Its legendary customer service, competitive prices and speed. I regularly courier bulldog puppies (yuk, I hate bulldogs since my traumatic experiences with the ex-missus’ toe nail eating dog, ‘Captain Gumdrop’) to various destinations worldwide and it only takes 3 days door to door. Amazingly, an average 57% remain alive despite being bubble wrapped and boxed up with no food or water. ]

Key takeaways: (a) Owning BPC shares pre and post-spud is like Christmas day every day. (b) Does anyone want to buy a bulldog (yuk) puppy with free delivery included? (c) Ignore IreneK’s nonsensical and extremely irritating regular BPC de-ramping posts on this BB. Most of us do.

Starchild (AKA Starfish)
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The huge 3.3m buy was a late reported trade from 08:35am. The buyer (possibly an institution) paid a premium 3.10p per share to avoid the hassle of ‘pratting about’ with little buys of less than 500,000. Similar happened on Friday for 2m. There is at least one whale in the water gobbling up the krill. It would not surprise me if they continue to do so and one of the whales breaches the 3% ownership reporting level, followed by an RNS. It is unlikely to be a fat cat short-term-gain trader as such large buys in one hit will eat into their potential profit margin.

It’s a great time to be a BPC shareholder for the following reasons:

1. The 1 in 3 chance of a massive billion barrel / billion dollar find and 50% chance of a commercial find. Either success will imply there’s more black ‘gold in dem hills’.

2. The unique situation of being able to hedge this ‘bet’ based on CERP assets.

3. BPC pays no corporation tax and only 25% royalties. Lots of room to do a mini JV with Stena or a mega JV with a major.

4. Despite PoO being sub $50 and Covid, majors are doing farm-ins, farm-outs and JVs. See https://www.keyfactsenergy.com/news/?news_type=5

5. Stena can earn hundreds of millions in revenue from BPC’s offshore exploration -> appraisal -> development in BPC and CERP acreage. And let’s not forget Uruguay. It’s in Stena’s interests to help BPC and they have the funds (or cashflow if delayed invoicing) to do so.

Some current and future investors only want to invest to profit from the excitement leading to the SP surging, up to and before the expected spud result. It is their absolute right to do this and I affectionately call these folks the ‘spud-u-likers.’
Other LTHs have traded the share and now hold enough free (or almost free) shares to get a free bet on the Percy-1 outcome. Personally I’m in for the big one, as I like the odds. No casino in the world would offer similar odds at 3p to 6p (maybe more) per chip.

Remember as of today, the first c£20m of our market cap, (the first 0.6p of our SP) is CERP related. CERP in its own right had a market cap of £50m 12 months ago. I therefore believe IMHO, the BPC SP is very undervalued.

New to BPC? Come and join our fun party on this BB rather than lurk. I lurked 2014-2019! It’s exciting times.

Bottom line: Lots of news flow expected, some may hit us in the middle of the day if there is a risk price sensitive news could be leaked. IMHO: CONVICTION strong buy, but always DYOR. ‘Place your bets’ as the chips are only 3p…for now.

GLA

Starchild
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correction in CAPS

WIllec: I have no idea where MMs have the shares on hand to fulfil the buy orders so far today. Something is going to pop but private investors using google/Yahoo WITHOUT LVL2 can't see the overall picture.

WIllec: I have no idea where MMs have the shares on hand to fulfil the buy orders so far today. Something is going to pop but PI investors using google/Yahoo with LVL2 can't see the overall picture.

I very much recommend to everyone on this BB to try a Level 2 console for one month. Cost is only £24. See https://www.lse.co.uk/premium-services

Benefits:
• If buying or selling, you will get the edge over ordinary retail investors who use Google for real-time prices, yet don’t know volumes traded in real-time.
• You will see when MMs shake the tree. Example: when an MMs runs out of shares, and want more, they sometimes lower the bid/ask to panic a few people into selling thinking the SP is heading lower.
• You will see other ‘share shepherding’ games MMs play.
• You will see how some day traders ‘manipulate’ a price at various times of the day. Example: lots of little trades apparently edging the price a particular way.
• You will learn to the point of almost predicting when the MM bid/ask price will change. This gives you a slight edge, similar to counting cards in Blackjack. (Warning: even expert blackjack card counters with Maths PhDs can lose their underwear)
• You will know, with relative accuracy when a sell is a sell rather than a buy despite what colour the trade is shown.
• Even though I am not a day trader, I have used this intel to buy at slightly better rates on the day.
• It’s good training for when you eventually do want to sell some of your holdings.

BTW today when the official public price was 2.65p to sell shares to MMs……@9:42 am it was actually 2..908p. PIs without realtime data hoping to sell at 2.908p, lost out.

Get a 2nd level console today for a month at least. It’s worth £24.

Starchild
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