Member Info for Starchild

Zaggy: a contract has been signed with Stena. Refer to BPC RNS and Energy Voice commentary: https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/americas/241508/stena-drilling-wins-contract-for-well-in-bahamasste/

We all await news on how it will be funded and whether Stena wishes to JV. Refer to my post from this morning and yesterday at 14:55. If Stena formally announced it's the IceMax without a BPC funding update RNS, this BB will get bombarded with questions.

However, we don't want you suffering with high blood pressure or stress. If you believe the SP will not go much lower or will increase in the short term...hold. If you think it may get lower, perhaps you should de-risk some of your holdings. IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild

A few comments from yesterday’s posts:

Some of the large ‘buys’ over the last weeks is institutional investors such as Schroders trading with other institutional investors, generally via SETS. These trades bypass MMs who use SEAQ and as such generally do not move the SP. Refer to https://www.fool.co.uk/investing-basics/how-the-stock-market-works/sets-and-seaq/ . For example, yesterday a 1.5m transaction was direct. You can tell very quickly by comparing the links below one hour after close. Note the difference is exactly 1.5m.

10/8 Volume 6,573,428 (source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L )
10/8 Volume 8,073,428 (source https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BPC/bahamas-petroleum-company-plc/company-page )
10/8 Volume 8,073,428 (source https://www.lse.co.uk/Level2SharePrice.asp?shareprice=BPC&share=Bahamas-Petrol 2nd level console subscription needed)

I am still of the opinion Shore Capital (BPC’s joint broker and MM) are hoovering large sells on behalf of a client(s) using stealth. It is unusual for a MM to remain top of the bid or ask tree for days on end. Below copied from 2nd level console

16:50 SCAP 0 1.95
16:57 WINS 0 1.95
16:51 STFL 0 1.9
16:55 PEEL 0 1.85
16:51 CANA 0 1.8
16:51 JBER 0 1.55
16:51 CFEP 0 1.5
16:50 INV. 0 1.5

Question: What do they KNOW we don’t?!

I remain confident news will be forthcoming ‘soon.’ The reason no funding update RNS has been issued is probably because negotiations/discussions are still ongoing. Possibly with Stena….. refer to my previous post. Wouldn’t the BoD be criticised if it issued an un-caveated RNS stating,.... ‘Dear shareholders, we’re still talking to Stena and others.’..... The weight challenged lady doesn’t normally sing until the end of the show.

IMHO and at risk of being accused of ramping, the current 2p SP and £68m market cap is ridiculously undervalued considering the first c£20m (30%) is CERP assets/potential based on independent advice pre-merger. 30% of 2p = 0.6p which values the BPC part of the business with all its mega potential and +/- $10m cash in the bank at only 1.4p! Plllleeeaaaaaaaaase! Also take into account 12 months ago, CERP in its own right had a £50m market cap.

I still firmly believe, in good faith, BPC is a strong buy for the reasons presented above. The last time I felt this way was on 26/5/20 after the Stena drill RNS was issued which resulted in the SP soaring from a low of 1.35p to a high of 3.15p in just THREE days, representing a c230% increase. However DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
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Harry: any M&A is down to shareholders' votes. You are a northern lad, call a spade a spade, and are principled. Even though you de-risked most of your holdings recently i doubt you would vote in favour of such a theoretical BPC takeover. Neither would I.

Keep safe

Starchild

Harry: I accept your point is valid in the sense that if a Major was in play due to the current low SP, BPC could be a target for a (hostile or friendly) takeover. However unless the offer was silly money, I would probably vote no to a takeover. Exploration back costs alone are c$100m, excluding Persev-1 drill. Which is approx BPC market cap this afternoon.

I don't think my last post to facilitate opinion was delusional. And clearly not a ramp.

Starchild

To add to Pageofcups and Tiburn's valued insights.....my contribution.........

Fact: Stena want the BPC business during these difficult time otherwise they wouldn’t have given discounted rates and agreed a $7.5m penalty clause. Furthermore their fleet is on 50% capacity. See bottom of https://www.stena-drilling.com/our-fleet/

Fact: Stena is cash rich. They have a whole separate division called Stena Finance to manage Stena’s wealth and fund internal mega projects such as building an oil tanker or ferry.

Fact: BPC wants a drill ship and has signed an UNCONDITIONAL contract with Stena.

Fact: BPC has offered a 10% JV for $10m or $10m in equity.

Question: If you were the Stena BoD, would you consider having a BPC JV ‘flutter’ out of petty cash and/or lend a large chunk to BPC SECURED on CERP assets for a few years to fund the remainder? Value proposition: best case scenario is Stena makes a fortune if Persv-1 is a success. Worst case scenario they get full repayment and interest a few years from now. What would you do?

I lived in the USA for many years. There is an unusual aspect to buying a house there which is not common in Europe…’owner will finance’. Many Americans have mortgage free investment homes and are prepared to risk helping a buyer buy their home by providing some of the finance via a bank and share the risk of default.

In these unusual unprecedented times, although Stena are not known for being a lender to help small cap frontier oil explorers, why wouldn’t they? As Stena would you in return for some super incentives especially with some security?

Starchild
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Irene: I own shares for financial gain for my family and I. If part of my investment portfolio was in a casino chain (which for personal reasons it is not) , I would NOT hang about the fat cat gambler blackjack table jumping up and down in glee whenever the dealer got 21 and the house raked in a few million. I allege you would. Furthermore based on your posts across this LSE BB platform and therefore on the record, you do short shares. BPC I believe one of them. This is a fact. Complain to me or LSE if you feel this post is unfounded.

Starchild

Zaggy: Everyone on this BB (who have BPC shares) are in a bit of a pi55y mood awaiting news. Me included.

Being a LTH since 2014 and going for the big drill, I personally don't care if the SP is 2,3 or 4p however we do find it extremely annoying that there are persons shorting the company for personal gain and gloating about it on this BB. Also most people on this BB who own shares in BPC do try and help new holders such as you with opinions when asked. Anything that implies criticism against them or their investment decisions can cause a negative reaction if repeated daily. This is not a criticism against you as you/we are all frustrated. And you have the absolute right to air your frustrations.

BPC is a highly speculative share: win huge or lose big. Being a small market cap energy company it is also open to manipulation by day traders who hold CFDs long and short. DYOR and make your own investment decisions of-course. This post is not meant to be condescending, but please bear in mind general frustrations and LTHs feelings awaiting developments.

good luck

Starchild
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When I grow up I want to be just like Mr Jimthedontknow and work in the oil industry cleaning drillships just like him and using a pipe take oil from under the ground onto a floating thingy and then sell it in barrels at pubs to make lots of money and buy a train to drive and eat KFC every day and be a pilot for Ryanair and go on strike and own a red Lamborghini and own a puppy farm and my grandma bit my ear off and fed it to her silly dog Captain Gumdrop. He is very old and fat so grandma glued him to a skateboard to take him to shops. I also want to be a comedian and tell funny jokes such as….’a Priest, Imam and Rabbit walked into a pub and the Rabbit said to the barman stop this joke immediately as a I am a typing error. ‘

Starchildish
Aged 4 and a third

hoffy71:...'And what IK would the purpouse of doing these calculations be?'

answer....for IreneK to criticise whatever answer is forthcoming, as she has CFDs shorting the shares

'People want a BB where proper reasoned things are discussed and where people appear to be very misinformed those that have direct oil & gas experience try to correct them in the error of their ways. If you don't have that then and are unwilling to listen and learn...'

What a condescending patronizing ridiculous pompous comment! I personally can do without your advice. I owned shares when you were in nappies sunny Jim

Rossannan: Yet again your post is misleading. Ibiza did NOT predict £2-2.50. I also note you are happy to issue multi-day dilution warnings. Considering you have no shares in the company, is that out of concern to shareholders as an act of kindness on your part (a bit like a philanthropic public service) or for your own selfish reasons so you can attempt to talk the price down so you can buy it cheaper? Be great karma if a hot RNS was issued before you buy next.

2020Vision: You buy is shown as a sell because it was below the 2p (1.95-2.05) mid-price. If you sold 1m shares at 2.01p, it would have shown as a (blue) buy.

Rossannan: Your post is totally misleading as it implies I have predicted £2-2.50. I did NOT, have not and rely on analysts opinions which I then comment on, for example pre-spud and post spud prices. The fact is I started a thread at the weekend posing the question what would BB contributors wish for as a buyout if 2 billion barrels of oil had been proven at p90. Initially I stated in ‘a few months’ and then qualified it ‘in a few years’ after spud.’ Someone threw in a £2-£2.50 SP based on hope, fully admitting it was a quick calculation on the back of a fag packet ($5-$6/b). Your response was extremely discourteous to the poster and furthermore you provided no evidence to back your patronizing commentary, other than you purport to know these things. Feeling responsible, I therefore leapt to his defence asking you for evidence to argue against the opinion, which you initially appeared to be interested in doing and then ignored by deflecting to your usual multi-day dilution warning……………We also note you de-risked your whole BPC position today. As of a few minutes ago I am surprised it still has not appeared as a newsflash on Bloomberg and CNN Money.

Irene: I have absolutely no idea what you are on about, which is not unusual.

Stay safe
Starchild

GarryG: the story of Rockhopper Oil in the North Falklands basin is fascinating. Thank you for bringing it to our attention. I did a mini deep dive over 2 cups of coffee this morning mainly to speed read RNSs at the time 2010/2011 leading to spud and after spud. I did not do any research on why the SP is so low today, as all I sought was an indication of what type of news we can expect in future. Firstly, to put everything in context, when first planning the spud, PoO was $51/b. By the time they did a farm-out with Premier Oil in July 2012 PoO was $100/b. The value of the deal for 60% interests was a total of $953m including back costs! CASH.

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockhopper_Exploration
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/investors/announcements/ (You will need to filter time period)
https://www.argosresources.com/docs/ARG-CPR-JULY-2013.pdf (CPR: Competent Persons’ Report)
Max charts from Google finance (Lon: RKH) and https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Frankly: I find it totally disingenuous to mock, insult or patronize fellow posters on this BB, just because they have a long-term HOPE (as opposed to a prediction) that BPC’s SP and market cap will soar in the months and few years after Spud at P90/1P level. These self-proclaimed know-it-all mockers provide no evidence to back their assertions. And frankly they can’t because BPC is in a quite unique situation based on the huge potential oil reserves if proven and its current very low operating costs compared to other medium market cap oilers. Some of whom are in difficulty because at current low PoO, it costs them more to produce than to sell, while maintaining a massive fixed overhead.

GarryG: Thanks once again.

Have a great day all. DYOR.

Starchild
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Jimtheknow: I'm a boiler room fraud? What do you believe I do...pump and dump? Substantiate this serious allegation.

Irene: PLEASE GO AWAY. Your constant negativity about BPC/CERP which you are shorting is as irritating as a mosquito having its daily morning snack from my bare bottom.

‘Bottom’ line: I recommend Tesco Insect protect (max strength). BPC’s share price has likely bottomed out and it will soar leading to spud, let alone when lots of oil is found. Ignore IreneK who probably came bottom in her share analysis and share trading exams. BPC = Strong BUY.

Starchild (AKA 'Starfish')

Good morning all. There were some very informative posts yesterday on this BB. A couple of observations:

Share trading volume and F1
It doesn’t take much trading volume to make the SP soar. Example: total trading over 2 days until Aug 10 was 35m shares and SP soared from a 2.37p open to a 3.2p high. It then fell back to a 2.8p close after Trafalgar dumped 5m shares in the afternoon. Source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L I still hold the opinion posted last week that Shore Capital (joint BPC broker and MM) are hoovering up shares on behalf of a client via stealth. It is strange that (a) SCAP are at the top of the MM buy list for so many days in a row and (b) there are millions more purported buys than sells yet the bid/ask has remained generally static. Conclusion: We’re currently cruising behind the safety car while Trafalgar debris is being removed from the track….start revving the engines as the race will resume very soon with top speeds of 375kph. Who’s going to put the foot on the peddle first? An institutional investor? Another pension fund?

Stena
Stena can acquire 10% of the Persev-1 asset which can NEVER EVER be diluted for 10% of the exploration back costs. In the oil industry this is, IMO, a bargain….as normally a premium has to be paid. (‘Pay to play’).
Alternatively a chunk of shares for $10m with several sweeteners could ensure the value is at the +/-3p level. Examples: future contracts to drill Persev-2,3,4, Uruguay-1, CERP 1,2,3, oil tankers, etc etc. It could even have a penalty clause that in the event Stena are not selected for the next drill(s), BPC have to pay a penalty of $7.5m. (Sounds familiar?)

One key point we should not forget is the CERP BoD were not delusional or under the influence, in unanimously agreeing to the merger. Can you imagine an approach that sounded like….’Dear CERP BoD, have we got a deal for you! Give us your business, your assets, fire most of your staff including yourselves and in return we will give you a percentage of a phantom oil field which could be a duster and BTW, we have no idea how to fund the first drill yet.’ There is clearly stuff going on behind the scenes not yet in the public domain, which explains why Leo Koot and Tony Hawkins were guarded in their answers during two interviews. However in the event I am wrong, and the CERP merger was based on brilliant sales abilities by Simon and Eytan border-lining on hypnosis, I believe they will do so again when it comes to future funding requirements with the minimum of dilution at the asset and/or share level.

IMHO. DYOR. Have a great day. STRONG BUY.

Starchild
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Harry, I don't disagree with your comment... 'must surely have some positive newsflow in next couple weeks if were going to attract institutions to part with their money'.

However there is one advantage in the SP being temporarily low. Any institutional investor buying direct via BPC's two stock brokers and/or via MMs NOW can get a large chunk of shares at low prices. However, they too may be awaiting news as we all are.

Starchild

'Dream big play small' is the UK National Lottery’s catchphrase. I would argue at today’s 2p the share price is extremely small (cheap) based on BPC’s big (huge) potential. A bargain even. Why?

1. Everything can be summed up in the informative corporate presentation most of us have read at https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf (source bpcplc.com).

2. Although trading was low Thursday and Friday, I saw no evidence of share dumping which we suspect the CLN holder Trafalgar were doing with its 106m shares since 10th August. Prior to the dumping, the SP was 3.2p on 10/8/20. Perhaps, dumping is over although I may be wrong with a few million shares left.

3. Lots of news flow via RNS is expected. Key updates such as Stena with its option to execute a JV, overall funding updates for the shortfall to drill our company making Bahamas Persev-1 exploratory well, and of a lesser extent CERP asset news.

The odds of winning anything even £3 on the Euro Millions lottery is 1 in 13 (7.71%). The odds of a huge oil find (770m boe or more) in the area Persev-1 will be drilled is approximately 1 in 3, with a c50% chance commercially viable quantities of over 150m boe. As a BPC long term holder since 2014 I remain both patient and VERY optimistic.

All IMHO. Always DYOR and/or take independent advice. Strong BUY.

Good luck all. I think it’s going to be a very interesting week.

Starchild
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A few comments from yesterday’s posts.

CoMan: Your excellent post yesterday was again very informative. Is it possible you can opine (or perhaps ask some of your oil industry colleagues) on two KEY questions?.....
1. Assuming funding is not an issue, what is the best guess estimate for how long it would take for Persev-1 to be independently verified at the 1P/P90 level, ie, there is a ‘90% chance of xxxxbboe present’.
2. Of the oil in situ, a best guess estimate how many barrels per day can be extracted. For example: 20,000? 50,000?
Answers to the above will be greatly appreciated by everyone on this BB and the many others who read these posts.

CERP the ‘dog.’
CERP assets in the overall picture have relevance (a) NOW for potentially leveraging finance, (b) UNTIL the Bahamas spud (assuming some positive CERP RNSs) to get more institutional long term holders onboard who will see CERP as hedging their bet while potentially increasing the SP in the short-term from CERP positive news alone, and (c) AFTER spud if Persv-1 results are inconclusive. Let’s not forget dogs can win Crufts or Britain’s Got Talent and make their owners very wealthy. In fact Cerpie the doggie was valued at £50m last year and £20m+ before the BPC merger approach. It is therefore clearly NOT a bedraggled Bulldog/Shih Tzu crossbreed awaiting lethal injection at Battersea dogs home if no one wants it.

Ibiza28: An apology from me for asking an open question yesterday that resulted in some patronizing insults when you provided an honest opinion. You were clearly neither ramping or predicting a £2+ share price if 2bboe was proven in the future and neither was I by defending your rationale. What we all note, is in the series of questions I posed afterwards, the people mocking your comments and mine provided no evidence or sources to disprove your opinion. In fact they quickly changed the subject to their daily mantra: CERP bashing and share dilution. And why did they do this? Had they in good faith answered the questions by stating ‘it takes approx. 3 years for 2bboe to be proven and at $50/b Exxon could pay $5 a barrel……your £2 a share takeover hope would have been feasible if all the ducks lined up in a row. I rest my case.

Have a great day all. DYOR (with the exception that we need to hold onto CoMan’s apron strings for engineering tech insight)

Starchild
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Irene:
1. The figure I asked from you is how many BoO an offshore operation can harvest in a day. 20,000? 50,000?
2. However, as you appear knowledgeable, I'll ask you the same question on the value of oil, if proven a few years in the future. How much is 2b proven boO worth, at say $50/b, if Exxon wanted to buy the asset but not BPC? If you were the BoD what would you accept? How much would you value the proven reserves...$1, $3, $5 per barrel?