Member Info for Starchild

Findme: I hear what you say and agree you are not de-ramping. But why did the major extend its exclusivity and pay for the privilege? They didn't fall about laughing after a couple of weeks in the data room. I suspect they liked what they saw which is the same data room Leo Koot (a respected Harvard master's degree oil professional) saw, and the same due diligence CERP undertook to recommend an all share merger with BPC.

I believe the BoD are making last attempts to approach the majors as we speak, with a simple message, 'pay to play and benefit from a potential huge ROI, or we will do it ourselves with a funding strategy already in place.'

Just because they don't want to have a swim, doesn't mean we should assume it is because sharks are in the area.

Starchild

Parpaing:
1. Very recent BPC presentations (July/Aug) show the majors are still in talks.
2. In 2018 one of them spent money for exclusivity in the data room and extended it buy spending another month and paying. What has changed since 2018 is BPC has a roadmap to self-fund.
3. A game of poker could be being played. Think Brexit with EU/UK negotiations probably ageing to a deal at the last moment.
4. Leo K was physically excited at the potential structures. See https://www.lse.co.uk/media/CERP/columbus-energys-leo-koot-explains-the-rationale-for-the-bahamas-merger.html Watch 4 minutes - 6 minutes.

I don't care if a major wants to play or not. We'll still get our drill and have less dilution at the asset level. It's their loss!

Starchild
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Dear oil majors and super majors,

The oil/gas wealth in the North Sea which is shared by a number of mega oil companies such as yourselves has an area of 575.000Km2. Bahama's EEZ has a potentially oil rich area of 218,292 Km2. One company, BPC, has the exploration rights (actual and pending) to 10% of the Bahamas' waters. The Bahamas EEZ owned by a population of c400,000 is 40% the size of the whole north sea. BPC therefore has amazing potential. Take the opportunity for a farm-in with BPC NOW for the following reasons:

1. BPC has potential total prospectivity using the STOIIP model of 28.6bboe (current licensed blocks), with possibly 25% recoverable. This equates to over 7bboe. (refer to excellent presentations on BPC website). Therefore, BPC has potentially game changing reserves which would even apply to a super-major and prop up your currently LANGUISHING share prices and dividends.

2. Now that you have drastically cut back on exploration capex what are you going to do when your reserves start depleting? Prospect for more, from scratch, which can take several years? What if oil has surged to over $100/b which some analysts predict but you have empty shelves in your shops and OPEC+ takes market share?

3. Despite the current price of oil and Covid-19 uncertainty, one of you, ExxonMobil had the nous in May 2020 to do a farm-in deal with Petronas Suriname purely on prospects in Suriname waters, based on finds nearby in Guyana. (https://caribbeanbusinessreport.com/news/petronas-suriname-sells-50-interest-in-block-52-to-exxon/ )

4. It is highly likely one or more of you have attempted to do a BPC farm-in already but on punitive terms. BPC is not desperate. Cashflow is not an issue to spud as it has several funding options in place and now even CERP assets can be leveraged to a degree. One potential JV is with Stena Drilling part of the cash rich Stena sphere conglomerate. It is therefore almost a mathematical certainty spud(s) will go ahead between 12/20 - 2/21.

5. If oil is found, any future farm-out will cost you substantially more. Not just because of the potential value of the find after one or two spuds, but the increased probability of finding even more in BPC's licensed exploration blocks.

6. A farm-in investment to drill Persv-1, including a large chunk of the >$£100m spent to date would be out of your PETTY CASH. Even if the spud result was inconclusive, it probably would be a tiny footnote in your 2021 accounts and the decision makers will not get fired. However, if substantial oil is found and you turned down this amazing opportunity, your BoDs may haul your sorry little a55es into their boardrooms to ask why.

I suggest you act NOW before your competitors do.

Starchild
[Key takeaway: satirically written to show BPC's potential and why a Stena JV @10% for $10m is a bargain compared to how much a major oil co would need to pay for the honour]

CoMan: Your posts yesterday were extremely helpful and very much appreciated by all on this BB. I do not recall seeing a post on this BB with 20 recommends. You only joined 3 days ago, yet your excellent posts are even being quoted on ADFV. If your schedule permits, please do keep a regular eye on this BB and provide your tech analysis/opinions (in baby language!!!) as I am sure a lot more questions will be forthcoming over the coming weeks, especially when detailed tech RNSs are issued relating to the big Persev-1 drill and CERP news updates. Same applies to our other oil men such as Chriskerr, Findme and others. This will be very much appreciated by all of us.

Today I decided not to ‘ramp’ BPC. (Even though its share price will likely surge based on expected news flow, the share dumping will likely end very soon, and remains IMHO a no-brainer...........strong buy!!!)

All: Have a great day

Starchild
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Bynari: thanks for article quote which states 45-60 days. However, others such as https://ewnews.com/bpc-sets-new-date-for-oil-exploration-in-the-bahamas and in February state 30-45 days. Either, the extra 15 days is likely to take into account the contingency time/cost $5m if spud is a success or, dare I say it, we possibly could get news of a 2nd drill!!!!

Coman/Chriskerr: very informative posts today with your expertise in the oil industry. Do you have any thoughts on timelines between the ship leaving for home and the analysis of the samples/quality/proof of oil reserves etc.

Irene:
There was an old girl called Irene;
That annoying BPC de-ramping machine.
If the money was right
With massive profits in sight,
She’d even try to (short) sell The Queen

Starchild
xxx

Zag: Your question…..’the time frame to show its not a "duster" or a winner is approximately what?’

After the drill ship arrives onsite, BPC has indicated 30-45 days for the spud to complete. Prior to the ship leaving for home we will know via RNS if it is a total duster or if the oil’s API is below 11 and therefore too heavy (similar to bitumen sludge) because the hole will need to be sealed for environmental and practical reasons.

During the 45 days……Refer to page 11 of the August presentation and you will note in the photo there are multiple reservoirs (Stacked plays) from Upper Jurassic mega bank and reef systems throughout the Lower Cretaceous…..where hydrocarbons could be trapped. I believe there are 10 reservoirs at the spot where the drill will take place. I’m sure we will get news as the drill progresses. https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf The share price will react as news is issued. Analysts have predicted $1 in market cap per barrel. Winner.

If the drill is a success, a $5m contingency budget exists for enhanced evaluation logging/sampling. This could be why the spud will take 30-45 days, however it could on top of this figure. It is likely at this point the SP will have already soared for two simple reasons: firstly, commercial quantities of oil has been found at the Persev-1 location and secondly there is a high possibility more oil (+/-1bboe!) is next door when eventually Persev-2 is drilled. Winner.

At that point, which for simplicity let’s estimate as being 60 days after the ship’s arrival, it will not be the end of the story, but the beginning of a new chapter: off-site analysis probably in Texas will review the samples and data. How long this will take I will leave to BB members who have more experience in the engineering/tech aspects of a discovery. I believe Findme posted a few helpful comments last week. Nevertheless after the analysis is complete, BPC’s market cap will reflect the value of the oil net of extraction costs, JV %, and royalties to the Bahamas Gov. It will be based on the PoO at the time, USD GBP exchange rate and projected PoO price on extraction in 2-3 years. And let’s not forget, news announcements for Persev-2 spud and to a lesser degree CERP assets at the time. Which is why it is not unrealistic to estimate 77p-100p by end of 2021. Winner. However, all the ducks need to line up in a row for this to happen. If there is no oil (or oil is too heavy) the ducks will have drowned. It is because of this high risk/high reward possibility, the whole world has not lined up to buy BPC........YET.

I hope this answers your duster or winner question. IMHO. DYOR

Starchild
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WIllec: you have to catch it on a level 2 console. If mid-price transaction is via MM, usually it is grey/black and then reverts to blue/red depending on bid/ask change then or soon after. If not via MM (auction or direct access), I have not noted a steadfast rule.....almost like the system guesses. Although somewhat irrelevant for small transactions when MMs shake the tree, you can ascertain whether it is a real buy or sell for large transactions by looking either side.

Above does not apply for delayed large trades or after market closes.

Starchild
xxx

Ps...although Irene is extremely annoying, I have not known her to post fake news or highly insulting posts against fellow forum members. She cannot be banned.

Zag: the reason your buy is shown as a sell is the way the system works when the price you paid is below the mid-price. ( Your transaction … 08:04:49 2.0245 150,000 Sell* 1.95 2.10 £3,037). Had it been 2.025 it would have been shown as ‘unknown’ and in black font, over that in blue font.

Zaf: ‘when will the share dumpers run of shares?’ IMHO IF Trafalgar are dumping which is likely, I estimate they have less than 25m shares. one week of medium level trading or a good RNS and dumping over. If not, drip drip drip until they stop dumping. They may keep some shares in reserve for a flutter, but we don’t know as we do not know their business/ risk model.

Zag+Zaf: if you can both sing, open a boy band as the name is kind of cool.

Fatalcharm: welcome back!

Chriskerr100’s post: re 3-4p SP prediction…..IMHO, if we get a great RNS tue/wed, he could be right. If we don’t and dumpers stop dumping it will go a lot higher than 2p. If neither applies and there is appetite to buy shares, it will edge higher. If low trading and none of the aforementioned, drip drip drip.

Irene: please GO AWAY!!! On the Richter scale of being miffed I’m on a 7.0 in miffiness based on your posts today. Get rid of your short positions. THINK LONG.

Humbly, as I am not a know it all.

Starchild
xxxx

Irene our lovely little de-ramping gargoyle, I quoted Whoppy and opined on it because I liked his post. It's for other readers whether rich, poor or famous to make their own informed decisions.

In fact I know a lot of famous people including that amazing Oscar winning actor Brad Pitt. We regularly exchange cute kitten photos and spend hours on Zoom dressing them in different coloured ribbons based on their perceived moods. He recently introduced me to his highly respected cousins Arm Pitt and Cess Pitt who run a hedge fund. These two giants of Wall Street with financial brains the size of planets STRONGLY advise that you immediately exit your BPC CFD short positions otherwise you will lose a fortune and may have to resort to immoral earnings to make ends meet (although unlikely to earn much).

Key takeaways: WATCH all movies Brad Pitt is in, BUY BPC shares, IGNORE all IreneK’s de-ramping posts on this BB as they are absurd and open to ridicule. (as is my silly ‘impact’ joke above)

Starchild
Xxx

Good morning all

1. 6m big sells yesterday is good. Of these, 3.5m were after market closed or direct trades, so they have not been added to Yahoo totals https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L . This is indicative of a large sophisticated or institutional buyer gobbling the stock being dumped by the 1 or 2 dumpers.

2. Whoppy posted an interesting opinion on ADV yesterday 17:11…………

….‘As for CLN's, we all know it's a trade off between equity dilution and asset dilution. Ignoring the benefit of maintaining 100% of the asset with a CLN as opposed to retaining maybe 20-30% of the asset on a farmout, is the value proposition. Do you want the well drilled?. On a success case, CLN provides huge upside on owning 100% of the asset. This demonstrates how confident the team are. Five previous wells drilled to date, all stymied by the water depths and rigs used, so drilled in shallow water completely off structure. All wells had oil and gas, however, not commercial due to invalid traps, structure and location. BPC have found the structures and traps. Bigger than anything anticipated and Middle East in scale, on trend with Iran. COS 23-35% which in industry terms is very high for a basin yet to discover commercial quantities. As an example, if Perseverance is successful then Perseverance 2 on the same structure would yield a COS of 80%, despite knowing the oil is there. 80% is very high, due to the structure being full, so pretty definite. Nothing can ever be 100% in the oil drilling game. At best 50% for any appraisal/producer will be as good as it gets.’…..

3. My rhetorical question to Whoppy’s excellent post……….if you were the BPC BoD and got the choice of a massive CLN (share dilution) or JV (asset dilution), which would you chose? My answer: if the JV was with a supermajor and included a large chunk of c$100m back costs and a free drill(s), it’s a no brainer. However if not, and it’s Stena or similar at $10m for 10% asset equity, I could live with a CLN because if Persv-1 is a success we would be better off at the asset level 12 months from today. Better still, would be leveraging a 5 year loan/bond/mortgage on CERP potential instead of a CLN. In reality it could be a mixture of various funding offers.

Bottom line: Lots of news flow expected from next week onwards. September will be a scorcher. IMHO BPC remains STRONG BUY. But DYOR.

Starchild
xxx

There were only 5.8m shares traded yesterday however what is unusual approx 4m were buys and 1.8m sells. Never rely on the red/blue/black colour code as seen on https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=BPC&share=Bahamas-Petrol, look at trades compared to others at around the same time to ascertain whether they were a buy or sell.

Historically the BPC MMs tend to change the bid/ask price (or spread) when c1m shares are in credit or debit. MMs avoid carrying risk overnight as due to the small profit margin they make from the spread, a week’s profit can be wiped out if the SP moves the opposite way, and dramatically so if a good or bad RNS is issued at 7am. So, either we will see a large sell(s) with delayed reporting today from yesterday, or Shore-Cap or Investec (both are MMs as well as being BPC’s brokers), are possibly fulfilling a series of large buy orders starting yesterday on behalf of a wealthy or institutional client without causing a price spike. (or BPC are buying them directly or indirectly!) We shall see.

On a less nerdy note: pre and post spud commentary from yesterday ……
Ibiza/Dubed:
1. For possible SP leading to spud, please refer to my research post on 18 Aug 2020 11:19 titled ‘BPC pre-spud price discussion (updated 18/8/20)’, which deals with market cap and then works backwards to ascertain SP. It proposes 5.5p as a baseline (based on analysts commentary in February) but this figure doesn’t include new CERP related good news until spud.
2. For possible SP after spud if Bahamas Persev-1 is a success, 36p SP was predicted by analyst Dr Zac Phillips in February (when PoO was c$50/b). It worked out approx. $1 in market cap for each estimated barrel of oil. See https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html However this was before CERP merger. We need to deduct the share dilution but add CERP’s market cap contribution to the overall pot. Between now and 1st qtr 2021 a lot can happen on the CERP front. We should also take into account market sentiment and risk appetite upon hearing Persev-1 is a success, notably if the test drill is a gusher, it is possible and probable there’s lots of oil in adjacent acreage. Remember Saudi Arabia 1940. Remember North Sea 1970. Bahamas 2021? Uruguay 2022?

All IMHO. DYOR. STRONG BUY.

Have a great day
Starchild
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Dear Cardinal

I am very grateful for your extremely prompt response to my earlier post and now note this BB is monitored 24x7 by the Vatican Bank due to its planned investment in BPC and delighted HH The Pope personally gets BPC alerts direct on his iPhone. I am sorry there is no one available for the proposed IreneK exorcism nevertheless very pleased that you will look into how this poor child can have it done via Zoom. Please also bestow a blessing on our esteemed fellow LTH Findme, who appears to be a on bit of a downer today. So he doesn't lose the faith.

[We wish to thank our generous sponsor Zoom for this post. (Nasdaq: ZM) This wonder company’s share price has quadrupled in less than a year based on the excellent video conference services it provides to companies, schools, churches and even for exorcisms. Key takeaways: Buy Zoom, Buy BPC. Ignore Irene’s silly daily BPC de-ramping posts. ]

Starchild

Dear Vatican management,

Even though I am not Catholic (I am an extra-terrestrial), I highly respect the Pope and even have a fridge magnet I acquired in Rome, with his picture on out of high esteem. Please do us all a favour……

It is alleged one of our regular posters on the BB could be demon possessed. We have no documented proof that her head spins around 360 degrees or any recorded instances of bed levitation or projectile green vomiting, other than her totally unintelligible illogical daily BPC de-ramping posts, possibly indicating she suffers from this supernatural phenomena.

If it doesn’t cause too much inconvenience, kindly arrange for 7 senior priests to take at least 7 litres of holy water EACH to perform the exorcism. It will possibly free this poor child (IreneK, who we are very fond of) from the heavy burden she carries and also free the rest of us from having to read her (daft BPC daily de-ramping) bleedin’ posts ever again.

God Bless you and all of us
Starchild (Aka Starfish)
Xxx
Ps….Why doesn’t the Vatican Bank (‘Institutum pro Operibus Religionis’) have a little flutter on BPC? $30m loan @2% annum payable after 10 years AND 30,000,000 free shares which could become £1 each by Christmas 2021?…Subject to contract, a bit of luck and a LOT of prayers.

NellyB: your summary is excellent. I wish to add, at a macro trading level, had the CLN not been executed (Or the CLN holder not dumped), SP would likely have been at 3p+ as it was on 10/8, however we would have had less money in the bank for Persv-1. Furthermore, had BPC reserves been used to pay off Lind, there would have been an outcry from BPC LTHs and the merger vote may have failed. IMHO...

1. The dumping is temporary
2. The potential for CERP assets in their own right to produce 4500 B/DAY by 2023 (over 10 times current amount) with relatively little capex is great.
3. It gives the BoD potential access to funding for Pesrv1 we could not have got without the broader asset/risk profile.

This temporary storm will end and sunny days will follow. Possibly even a heatwave.

Starchild

Long term CERP shareholders: 11 months ago, the CERP SP peaked to 5.1p with a market cap of £50m (PoO was c$60/b).
Had the merger not happened and CERP remained as before with no Bahamas drill nor Uruguay potential.....

1. What are your estimates for the CERP market cap TODAY if production for Trinidad and Suriname was 4,500 barrels per DAY?
2. Why?

Please refer to slide 27 in BPC presentation https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf

The above 4500 figure is shown on slide 27 as the potential upside for oil production per day from 2023 onwards. The reasons for this exercise is to underlay my opinion to potential investors that even IF Persev-1 is a duster, despite having c3.5 billion shares in play today, the market cap from CERP assets alone would possibly be in the 3p plus range. It will to a degree justify the opinion I wrote at 06:04am 22/8…….

‘…….Because at this [low SP today] price, even if Bahamas is a total duster, assuming patience for +/- 5 years, it is possible the SP / market cap will hedge the gamble in full purely on CERP/Uruguay potential. No casino in the world would offer a one in three odds bet, giving a 15x win (which could be 30x within a year)…………….and………….if you lose, the casino will return your original stake in 5 years ‘subject to Ts and Cs’……..’

I'm in meetings most of today. Above IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
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Hi folks. I don't think Irene is shorting BPC anymore which is why she has remained very quiet. I am also of the opinion GS from ADVN will flip sides 'very soon', initially by not attacking his alleged 'muppets'. Without appearing judgemental, I don't like GS's way of doing things, but when he writes serious posts about BPC when the going is good, they are very informative and cerebral.

Starchild

i think there are some teething problems with the updated website.

1. the article you refer to is form 2011! Copy sourced from here https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2017/07/07132814/firstenergy_capital__bpc_strengthens_its_financial_position_ahead_of_farm-outs___23_march_2011.pdf

2. I get a rude security message from Chrome when I click on the PDF link for https://www.bpcplc.com/2020/08/21/firstenergy-capital-market-report/

I'm sure they will be fixed soon

Tiburn: Excellent research post. [oil/gas] Reserve based lending (RBL) can only be done after a competent person's report (CPR) to ascertain known actual and probable reserves. RBL is just one of several financing tools at the BoD's disposal. Prior to merger due to Covid 19 and PoO collapse, CERP was likely running at a loss. Using the analogy of owning a nice house with a small mortgage (Lind), it didn't have the funds to decorate and improve the property, nor have enough income to get a loan to do so. BPC has cash, albeit earmarked for Persv-1, can use some of it now which will be tiny in the overall picture, especially as there's less mouths to feed. IMHO. DYOR.

BTW, one point which we must not forget is a lot of CERP folks who had been with the company for many years lost their jobs. As things progress, I hope they can get them back.

Starchild

Adonis: Please refer to slide 20 and 21 https://wp-bpcplc-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/08/12221803/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf. Some funding is ear marked now for enhancing ex CERP assets. This makes sense as it will potentially increase production, while at the same time having a more accurate appraisal of the underlying assets. As a side point this is why a CPR (competent person's report) is being done. see bottom left page 21. All the above will help leverage overall funding and be key points in institutional presentations.

Starchild
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To Harry, Pumpy and other LTH's who sold all or most of their holdings.....

IMHO get back in ASAP. My predictions for overall BPC SP movements have been right. Even if you sell at 3-4p in future, you are better off than selling at 2p ish today or recently mostly on principle. I feel strongly about this. Man hugs and puppy dog kisses if I am right. Please don't get miffed in the UNLIKELY even Starchild is wrong. I haven't been proven wrong so far on overall SP increases.

This post has no selfish intent. Look back at my posts the last few days and haul your bottoms back here NOW.

xxx