Member Info for Starchild

Findme: what you say could be true, however IMHO it will be TEMPORARY and get rid of the dumpers. Example: great RNS, SP increases, dumpers dump (70m?) over 2 days. Who cares. Wait for day 3 onwards.

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Findme: I strongly believed SP would surge after merger. It did. To 3.2p Monday 10th 2 weeks ago. We all knew about the Trafalgar CLN and the possibility of Schroders selling, however I did not anticipate share dumping. Our (BPC) only CLN in May/June totalled 200m shares, yet despite the holder getting the shares at sub 1.5p, they used self-restraint and did not dump. In fact SP hit over 3.5p in June just prior to merger proposal if I recall.

Ibiza: I estimate c45m Trafalgar shares left (but I could be out either way by 20m) and continue to believe they and other dumper(s) don’t want to go much below 2p. I suspect some of the large direct trades outside of MMs using direct access trades are Schroders selling in mini-bulk. A decent RNS that will increase trading upwards will likely act as a laxative. Or a direct deal at institutional HNWI level via brokers. Otherwise it will be drip drip drip.

Chesh: I found PRD speculation announcement kind of cool. If the BPC BoD were to counter some of the cr+p written by shorters/de-rampers since the merger announcement until now, they would be issuing RNSs every hour.

J99mes: I love BPC, love you folks and am excited for the potential, however I don’t scupper out of bed in the middle of the night to post on this BB. I live most of the year in a time zone a few hours ahead of the UK and haven’t travelled on a plane since Feb due to Covid. We have other homes in other countries including London and I imagine there is mouse infestation or hippy communes by now.

General….
We now have 8MMs in play (market makers not the 1960s film format). The new joint broker Investec started today. Remember they are a broker, MM, wealth advisors and a bank…which will be good for us.
Euro lottery Tuesday is at 122m Euro. If anyone wins it, kindly lend BPC $30m interest free for 5 years so we get our drill with no more fuss.
The last few days it’s been great to see some of the LTH CERP holders appear here…..polite….lot’s of camaraderie …. That’s the way it should be on this BB. I also note the high esteem Leo is held in.

A bit more patience folks. I stand by every post I’ve written however DYOR. I don’t think it will be long. In fact we haven’t heard from Irene for a few days. Possibly because she now has a tight spread to hedge the fact the SP will soar and is exiting her CFD positions and going long.

GLA

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Good morning all

If you haven't done so already, it is worth reading all 15 of yesterday's posts on the BB and why IMHO it is marked as a STRONG BUY for the events and news that are expected to unfold in the very short-term.

As an additional point re a potential Stena involvement announcement as early as next week, remember the BPC BoD have in the last 3 months surprised everyone with unexpected RNSs. The Stena drill agreement, Uruguay and CERP merger.

It will not surprise me if a Stena announcement occurred this week. Just because Stena can commit to drill dates from 1/9/20, doesn't mean they can't commit a few days earlier than expected. That would throw a curve ball to the share dumpers and the short sellers / derivative players who have made money off the back of them some of whom have publicly gloated here and ADVFN at the TEMPORARY share decline. Karma!

Have a great week.

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Wilbobs: during 2021, it will hopefully be a rags to riches story. In 2018 we didn't have anything and were hunting ways to get fiance. It will likely make finding a Middle Eastern size oil field international news headlines and be similar to the famous Month Python Four Yorkshire-men sketch here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue7wM0QC5LE

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Ibiza: Your timeline question was a very good one and Findme’s technical deep dive very informative. Using the BPC 13/8/20 presentation as a general guide, please refer to pages 20/21.
https://wp-bpcplc-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/08/12221803/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf . It shows the indicative timeline of spud date early 2021, with ‘Well results’ and ‘Resource definition and appraisal to define development’ in 1H 2021. From another presentation, it was stated the actual spud will take c30-45 days early on in this 1H 2021 window.

I believe indicative results will be forthcoming before Stena sails home. However, it will be very useful if any folks on our BB can provide examples of similar offshore explorers and what news-flow and indicative timelines to expect between end of spud when the drill ship heads home until ‘Well results’. Examples: oil quality API light/sweet etc etc and how long it takes for more accurate indications of prospective oil reservoirs’ sizes. ie, proof vs indicative.

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On 26/5/20 a ‘Drill rig contract signed‘ RNS was issued which resulted in the SP soaring from a low of 1.35p to a high of 3.15p in just THREE days, representing a c230% increase.
Source https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdzqj8w and https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L

The key para from RNS:…… ‘[Stena may] (i) subscribe for up to $10 million of new equity in BPC on the same terms and conditions as would apply in any BPC capital raising, or (ii) farm-in to the BPC southern licences on the basis of $10 million for a 10% non-operated working interest. If [Stena] were to seek to take up either of these investment options, the consideration could be satisfied either in cash or by way of offset against amounts payable by BPC under the Rig Contact.’…..

On 28/5/20 6am, by coincidence on the same day the SP opened at 1.8p and closed at 3.1p, I wrote a research article here, dissecting the Stena potential based on the RNS. My main points were (including my updates today) ….:
Stena Drilling is a wholly subsidiary of the family owned Swedish conglomerate Stena AB. The conglomerate of three major Stena holding companies is known as the 'Stena Sphere.' (source Wiki). They are private companies owned by one family. The Group has made a profit every year since 1939 and has grown to include the largest ferry company in the world, a large fleet of oil tankers, exploration drill ships and a Stena financing arm.

1. Stena’s financial statements show they are VERY cash rich.
2. It has fingers in various pies including energy and tankers and possibly a BPC partnership made in heaven. The amount involved is PETTY CASH for Stena, yet the ROI potential huge.
3. Based on the 10% $10m Stena share option above using simple maths at the time I argued the justification that the SP was valued at a DISCOUNTED 3.2p, despite it closing the previous day at 1.82p.
4. BPC also offered 10% JV farm-in at the asset level. This is consistent with the explorations costs to date of c$100m. In fact it is a bargain, because if a major was involved, it would need to pay a large chunk of back-costs and provide a free drill(s).
5. Because of CERP and Uruguay, even if Persv-1 was a duster, the Stena BoD know they can hedge the bet if a JV can be structured involving those assets in future. (please refer to my post yesterday morning, last para re ‘5 years’)

Bottom line: despite recent share dumping for reasons we are aware of, if it is announced as early as 1/9/20 in just over a week Stena has agreed to either a JV or share options, our Persv-1 drill finance is practically assured. IMHO: STRONG BUY despite the SP possibly festering for a few more days. However always DYOR.

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Harry: Macquarie Capital Markets Canada were appointed to assist in 2018 at about the same time as the $1m exclusivity fee was paid by an oil major. See page 1 https://www.bpcplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BPC-Interim-Report-30-June-2018-Final.pdf . The announcement did not qualify the appointment length as happened recently when Gneiss were appointed for a further 9 months. Furthermore, no further RNS as far as I know was issued stating either that the Macquarie arrangement had ceased, or if it’s still ongoing on an ad-hoc basis amongst other similar advisors. I’m not sure if it is of relevance now as goal posts have moved with the CERP merger. Furthermore, if a stock broker is replaced, this usually appears in an RNS, but not normally for a change of advisor or supplier. What is good as of today’s date is Gneiss and Investec have joined the party.

WIllibobs: according to my calculations based on assumptions (the only facts being the 2 Trafalgar RNSs disclosing 13m sells in 2 days), the dumping will likely continue until the end of the week. However we don’t know how many recent sells were LTHs de-risking. On the upside, the BoD may intervene, RNSs are expected in early September, including perhaps a Stena JV. Monday 31/8 is a public holiday. If an investor wants to buy or top-up, it could be prudent not to wait until Thursday or Friday, and buy now at a bargain price in anticipation of next month’s news.

Minimil: your comment.,….. ‘I see no reason why BPC want to release positive RNSs when clearly Trafalgar are dumping their stock’…..may be proven true.

I still believe the SP is way undervalued at sub 3p for the reasons I posted the last few days and is a STRONG BUY. This is not aimed at day traders who want to make a quick ROI, but to LTHs such as me who don’t care if the SP is 2p or 4p, but want to have a flutter on the huge potential of finding a middle eastern size oil field 1st qtr 2021. Because at this price, even if Bahamas is a total duster, assuming patience for +/- 5 years, it is possible the SP / market cap will hedge the gamble in full purely on CERP/Uruguay potential. No casino in the world would offer a one in three odds bet, giving a 15x win (which could be 30x within a year)…………….and………….if you lose, the casino will return your original stake in 5 years ‘subject to Ts and Cs’.

IMHO. DYOR.

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Although the article below is about death spiral finance, to be totally clear BPC were not desperate to get the Trafalgar loan to replace the Lind one. Bailiffs were not knocking on the door. No debt was outstanding. In fact we had the money in the bank however it would have not gone down well at the time and added to the fury by some anti-merger shareholders if ‘our’ Persv-1 drill money had been used. Nevertheless the article’s paragraph ‘Death Spiral Finance in Practice’ explains how unscrupulous lenders have incentive to drive low traded stocks’ SP down and even short the stock!!!!

IF, IF, IF Trafalgar are doing this, and I am not suggesting they are……………it will be ‘interesting.’ BPC signed a CLN in good faith with a 4 month window in anticipation of the SP going up on news flow. The question I ask is, has Trafalgar acted in good faith by dumping half its shares in 10 days, contributing to the SP to lose a third of its value? The fact it is temporary is irrelevant, it has already proven to have caused LTHs to sell at a very low price.

See https://investmentbank.com/death-spiral/

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I found GarryG’s post yesterday an excellent wake up call for everyone. It hit the nail on the head. Extracts below ………..….

‘Its like this. It is very simple. Bahamas Petroleum Oil hits oil and has the funds to get the oil out of the Bahamas and at the volume it expects. In which the SP which it currently stands of 2p is the bargain of the century or it hits dust and we have all [lost] our money’. …… ‘It basically boils down to that and the answer will be by February. It is a very high-risk share.’ ……’This is a punt nothing more. Everyone including BPC know it. If it hits oil great, if we are still here this time next year then forget about coming on here its over. I still say Risk to reward its a good buy at 2p as 1p or 2p or 3p its irrellevent, if it strikes major volumes in Q1 the SP will be more likely £0.30’

Rhetorical questions based on the assumptions there is a 32% chance of finding 770m barrels, 50% chance of more than the minimum commercially viable 150m barrels being found, 50% chance of a duster and ??% chance that if Persv-1 hits the jackpot, billions more barrels are possibly nearby. If the share price remained fixed until the spud announcement at the price you purchased your shares….

1. Would you still have a flutter using the above odds?
2. De-risk some or all of your BPC holdings?
3. Buy more shares at the same price?

The final rhetorical question is real world based, where the SP fluctuates daily………..

4. Do you plan to de-risk some of your shares leading to spud for a profit, so you are left with free (or almost free) shares to gamble on the Persv-1 outcome?

The two key reasons I was very much in favour of the CERP merger were (a) better access to corporate financing for Persv-1; and (b) IF Persv-1 is a duster we live to fight another day because of CERP’s potential and (not to be forgotten), Uruguay. Although the odds are similar to a casino bet, the win pay-out ratio is massive, and even if the Bahamas bet is lost, we get free bets on the house to potentially recoup (IMO) our original stake in 5 years assuming they were purchased at an average of c3p per share or less as of today.

IMHO BPC is a STRONG BUY unless you hope to make a profit in the next few days, in which case perhaps wait till the Trafalgar dumping of its remaining c50m shares is over by +/- 31/8. DYOR. Have a great day.

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Irene our little resident short selling shark: If I was a Sultan in the Ottoman empire 700 years ago, it is possible although neither probable or likely (based on your silly de-ramping posts on this BB), I would offer you various positions (by mutual consent) as a Concubine or Junior wife. This would be conditional on your father accepting a dowry of 4 chickens and a one year Netflix subscription as I believe you’re worth it.

We wish to thank our generous sponsor Netflix for this post. (Nasdaq: NFLX). Its share price will probably soar by 32% by 4th quarter based on its excellent streaming content such as that amazing Sci-fi series Travelers. I am a traveller 777 and made most of my money on the stock market by betting on pasts rather than futures. Must dash…I need to give my-past self a good slapping for marrying ex-wife number 5. I didn’t realise at the time I had to share my life with her stupid toe nail eating Bulldog Captain Gumdrop.

Welcome to the 21st century.

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Ps…Bynari thank you for your recent compliment. We have all found your original research very very helpful.

Chriskerr: according to RNS on 26/5 below, we could get Stena news as early as 1/9/20 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdzqj8w . Unfortunately, most companies do not pre-announce RNSs. They usually hit the market at 7am. A list of expected news (some already received via RNS) can be seen on my post 6/8/20 16:38 and other posts on the same day by respected CERP LTHs that followed my one.

Peter: thank you for your gracious comments.

Armatrading: I know your comment about buying PRD was tongue in cheek, however if 2021 reaps huge rewards, BPC could leverage a substantial find and go on a shopping spree for regional small market cap explorers/producers out of petty cash.

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Irene: your sarcastic summary of my post from this morning is totally misleading and taken out of context. However I will not debate the matter. Let the reader of your post and my one from 5am decide for themselves.

Findme: most posts i write are qualified with words such as possible, probable and 'my opinion'. I try to be helpful to let the reader decide for themselves. I always welcome feedback but not sarcasm. I have various companies in different countries but I am not, or ever professed to be a Branson. The amount my family and I have invested in BPC will not give us sleepless nights if Persv-1 was a duster. When successful, the ROI from my portion alone would be enough to live on for the rest of my life if i had no other savings. Finally, if you find my posts are 'fairy' stories, 'lack meat on the bone' or cause you to bang your head on the key board, I suggest for your mental wellbeing.....you block me.

Irene/Findme..have a great day

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Obadhia: I don't think companies are compelled to give such information when requested. Large PLCs do so in their quarterly updates and smaller public companies twice a year, which i estimate should be in the next few weeks. I don't think there's a huge dent in cash as the merger expenses mostly happened with shares, most jobs were suspended due to pandemic except for Bahamas Island staff and we do now have what's left of CERP's cash which could be $2m but I may be wrong.

I don't think the $11m was ring fenced as such. The decision the BoD needs to make is should it spend 500k-2m to increase CERP production ASAP, or wait for an overall funding solution.

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Findme: DYOR. Read my posts since 10/8!!!
1. Trafalgar are in a no lose position. They are indemnified by BPC (probably to 2p). 2. They may have taken out a CFD or short position at arms length via a connected company betting on the SP falling. 3. They are a financial institution lender not a an investor.

Tonsan: RNS disclosures... 1% applies during takeovers/mergers. 3% generally applies at other times. For senior Execs of a UK public company ALL buy/sells are disclosed. Schroders were below 3% as they only had 66m converted BPC shares which is less than 2% of merged company. IMHO

What happened yesterday was at least one large buyer has been hoovering shares. S/he knew what they were doing and timed their buys after large sells (or pre-empting the delayed reporting of large sells which is quite easy to spot on a 2nd level console).

Assumptions
1. It appears Trafalgar do not have a full indemnity from BPC to make up ANY shortfall. It is likely limited to 2p otherwise they would have dumped at any price (even 1.5p) and then come back for more shares!
2. I estimate they have c50m shares left from the original 101.5m.
3. It appears Schroders are using direct access to sell their remaining shares. This explains the discrepancy yesterday between Yahoo showing 16,628,141 traded vs 2nd level console 22,303,829.
4. Schroders (if it is them) are showing much more restraint and I estimate they have c20m left from their rule 8.3 RNS stated holdings on 16/6 of 66m BPC equivalent.

Opinions
• Yesterday’s mega buyer(s) needed to be certain the dumpers would NOT want the SP to collapse below 2p, and the buyer(s) probably share my assumptions above.
• S/he or they were the first to blink, knowing (a) positive news flow is imminent (b) other buyers will come along next week in anticipation of this news-flow (Stena JV RNS >1/9/20?) and because the dumpers will have few shares to dump.
• The mega buyer(s) know the SP will likely substantially increase within 2 weeks due to the above, although unlikely to increase until the dumping ends.
• Other buyers may join them from today, but especially next week.
• If Gneiss and the BoD have already started knocking on institutional doors or pension funds, purely on a 1 in 10 success rate at say, 50m shares a pop, the result will be interesting.
• Investec (our new joint broker) now has the excellent 13/8 corporate presentation as a tool to sell to its clients. Perhaps they too have already started knocking on doors, with a simple selling point….current price is a bargain with potential huge upside based on presentation bla bla bla and all the above.

Key takeaways:
(a) Although I am not alleging Trafalgar have or are doing anything illegal, I believe they will suffer permanent reputational damage if attempting to offer CLNs in future without clear anti-dumping clauses. We lost some LTHs recently because of Trafalgar's actions. The markets don’t forget.
(b) IMHO if the above opinions are correct, especially assumption 1, I believe BPC is now a STRONG BUY, however the SP will unlikely surge until the dumping ends.

I am a BPC LTH since 2014, CERP since July and to date have never sold either stock but topped up c20 times. All my opinions are in good faith, buy always DYOR.

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Pumpy: Even though we have had our disagreements I very much respect your decision even though if you had waited till September SP may have been back in the 3p+ range. I wish you all the best.

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Keith1, I know we have all had our differences with 'our' Irene however the mad cow reference is slightly OTT. (Only joking!) have a good day.

Findme: Do your own research as I'm not here to answer frivolous questions from those who insult me. I am quite sure I know what is happening relating to Trafalgar and to a lesser extent Shroders. .

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A ps to my last post to Stewart.....all indications are that based on the MMs BUY prices configuration, the whale is waiting for the dumper to dump and the MMs want to profit if the whale buys before the dumping. I hope they do dump so the c100m shares are out of their hands ASAP, despite it not increasing the SP short term.

I felt something like this would happen about now, which is why I wrote the 'I am so happy' comment yesterday. I will explain when it's over.

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